入侵乌克兰后的悲观预期

IF 1.9 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Empirical Economics Pub Date : 2024-01-22 DOI:10.1007/s00181-023-02550-3

Domenico Depalo

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我利用欧洲中央银行的消费者预期调查，估算了乌克兰-俄罗斯战争爆发后，法国、德国、意大利和西班牙个人对核心经济结果的预期发生了怎样的变化。我发现，个人预期经济增长较低，通货膨胀率较高。在能源进口依赖度较高的国家，战争的影响更大。因此，预期形成过程可能发生了变化。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

Gloomy expectations after the invasion of Ukraine

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Gloomy expectations after the invasion of Ukraine

Using the Consumer Expectations Survey of the ECB, I estimate how individual expectations on core economic outcomes changed in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain right after the beginning of the Ukraine–Russia war. I find that individuals expected lower economic growth and higher inflation. The effect of the war was larger in the countries with a higher energy-imports dependency. Hence, the expectation formation process might have changed.

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来源期刊

Empirical Economics Multiple-

CiteScore

4.40

自引率

0.00%

发文量

157

期刊介绍： Empirical Economics publishes high quality papers using econometric or statistical methods to fill the gap between economic theory and observed data. Papers explore such topics as estimation of established relationships between economic variables, testing of hypotheses derived from economic theory, treatment effect estimation, policy evaluation, simulation, forecasting, as well as econometric methods and measurement. Empirical Economics emphasizes the replicability of empirical results. Replication studies of important results in the literature - both positive and negative results - may be published as short papers in Empirical Economics. Authors of all accepted papers and replications are required to submit all data and codes prior to publication (for more details, see: Instructions for Authors).The journal follows a single blind review procedure. In order to ensure the high quality of the journal and an efficient editorial process, a substantial number of submissions that have very poor chances of receiving positive reviews are routinely rejected without sending the papers for review.Officially cited as: Empir Econ