Day 1 Tue, October 26, 2021最新文献

{"title":"Transformation of Sociology: Necessity and Perspectives","authors":"V. Bakirov","doi":"10.26565/2077-5105-2021-26-01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26565/2077-5105-2021-26-01","url":null,"abstract":"The article analyzes the relevance, factors and prospects of the transformation of modern sociological science. It is noted that digital technologies significantly change the fundamental foundations of social interaction, most everyday social practices, structures and conflicts. This poses a number of serious challenges to sociology as a science. It is emphasized that it is time to think deeply not only about the problem of transformation of what sociology studies, but also about the transformation of sociology itself as a specific intellectual practice. Attention is focused on the need for sociological analysis and interpretation of large-scale and long-term social processes, changes in the traditional way of sociology's participation in the formation of state social policy and the implementation of social reforms. Endogenous factors hindering the leadership of sociological science in the modern public intellectual discourse are identified, namely: fragmentation of sociology, its division into a huge number of directions, particular, local thematizations; lack of research attention of sociologists to the fundamental problems of social life; modern sociology does not form an agenda for public intellectual discourse and scientific research, does not define the problematic field of research and interpretation both at the microsocial level and at the level of societal and global phenomena; it is not socially engaged, does not engage in dialogic interaction with various groups of the public, does not help them to realize their values, interests and problems, to fight for their solution; sociologists do not show activity in related research areas (for example, such as social communications, public relations, advertising, marketing, political consulting, conflict studies), do not use for this a rich arsenal of sociological theoretical concepts, quantitative and qualitative methods; despite the mediatization of social life, sociology is not sufficiently media-based, it is extremely weakly present in the media space. A conclusion is formulated about the need to transform sociological thinking and sociological imagination, the need for serious changes in the educational programs of professional training of students, in particular their practical component, the search for new formats of professional communication.","PeriodicalId":11146,"journal":{"name":"Day 1 Tue, October 26, 2021","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72904396","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Influence of the Coronavirus Pandemic on the Development of Higher Education: Expert Opinion","authors":"O. Kyslova, Marko Aharkov","doi":"10.26565/2077-5105-2021-26-06","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26565/2077-5105-2021-26-06","url":null,"abstract":"The article examines the opinion of international experts on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the transformation of the higher education sector. Analyzed the data presented in publications that were posted on the international news resource University World News from 1st of March to 15th of October 2020 in the \"coronavirus crises\" section. It is noted that the most discussed topic is the strategy for the future development of higher education (26% of the analyzed texts were devoted to strategic issues). Attention is focused on the fact that the pandemic revealed that the concept of direct learning is not adapted to crisis situations like the COVID-19 pandemic (despite its undoubted advantages) when teachers and students do not have the opportunity to communicate directly in the classroom. It is emphasized that, despite the variability of experts' opinions on the future for the development of higher education in a global context there are significantly fewer negative assessments than could be expected: 33% of experts positively assess the changes in higher education initiated by the pandemic, suggest considering the pandemic crisis as a catalyst that accelerates solving existing problems, in particular the need to form a new vision of the strategic development of the education sector taking into account the future advantages of distance and online forms of education. The topic of financing turned out to be the most painful. Most experts negatively assess the prospects associated with a significant decrease in public funding without which it is difficult for universities to survive not only in the crisis conditions of the pandemic but also in the post-covid future. Insufficient funding has led to the reduction amount of teachers which will subsequently harm the entire system of higher education because it is the teachers who must fill the courses built in the format of augmented learning with content, develop an appropriate pedagogical design and accompany students in the educational process.","PeriodicalId":11146,"journal":{"name":"Day 1 Tue, October 26, 2021","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91187654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Corruption in Ukraine and the World as a Trigger for the Weakening of the State","authors":"Liudmyla Herasina, Viktoriia Pohribna","doi":"10.26565/2077-5105-2021-26-02","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26565/2077-5105-2021-26-02","url":null,"abstract":"The article analyzes corruption as an extra-legal phenomenon that destroys the morality and values of society, threatens democracy and human rights, deforms the functions of state power, discrediting it both within the country and in the international arena. It is noted that the formation of dysfunctions in the sphere of public administration is not the main socio-political danger of corruption.The threat of \"corrosion\" and gradual destruction of social ties in the system of state regulation, public control and the functioning of social institutions is creating. The sociological and legal interpretation of corruption made it possible to study it as a trigger that weakens statehood, to reveal the social mechanism of the influence of corruption ties on state institutions, to assess the political, economic, legal, socio-structural and psychological factors of its spread. The authors characterize foreign and domestic “models” of corruption and ways of counteracting it from the standpoint of the ontological approach; she also has identified social markers that reflect its specificity in Ukraine; a real assessment of the degree of effectiveness of anti-corruption actions in Ukraine are presented; the expediency of analyzing corruption in the international aspect, especially the mechanisms, forms and methods of Ukrainian corruption spreading in the world corruption services and the penetration of transnational corruption into the Ukrainian political and economic space; it is also revealed the effect of the social mechanism of corruption in the structure of the state, as a result of which the process of state regulation loses its morality and social value. It is shown that the stable, actively \"mutating\", adaptive to the majority of social changes, the nature of corruption in Ukraine does not only forms and reproduces the tolerant attitude of government and a significant part of the public, but it also actively inhibits democratic transformations and deforms the public consciousness of Ukrainians. It is emphasized that \"salus populi\" is the most pragmatic option among the systemic models of fighting corruption (totalitarian, authoritarian, liberal).","PeriodicalId":11146,"journal":{"name":"Day 1 Tue, October 26, 2021","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75672156","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"(Dis)trust, (un)sefety and Cohesion: Discourses of Vaccinations in Ukraine","authors":"Olga Filippova, O. Deineko","doi":"10.26565/2077-5105-2021-26-05","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26565/2077-5105-2021-26-05","url":null,"abstract":"The article is devoted to the analysis of vaccination discourses as ways of constructing and transforming social reality. Vaccination is considered, firstly, as a direction of state policy in the social and medical sphere; secondly, as a basis for realizing a legitimizing identity or constructing a resistance identity. Based on M. Castells’ concept of identity and the theory of discourse by E. Laclos and C. Mouffe, two discourses are distinguished that coexist in an antagonistic struggle – \"for\" (support) and \"against\" (resistance) to vaccination. The state is the main subject of the formation of the discourse for vaccination, constructing a legitimizing identity. The nodal points of this discourse are analyzed in the sphere of the regulatory law, particularly, in the Roadmap for COVID-19 Vaccines. This discourse is constructed on the nodal points of inclusion (being vaccinated means \"being included\" and having access to certain benefits), trust (in health care system and the vaccines), safety (both on the individual and national levels). The discourse \"against\" vaccination, which is the basis for the formation of the resistance identity, is characterized by the absence of the main subject of its construction. The channels of its objectification through which the media act becomes more significant than the status of the discourse constructing subjects. The nodal points of this discourse are analyzed in the context of new media – Ukrainian-language publications of the online media in Ukraine – as a space of the \"culture of freedom\" that creates the basis for the transition from mass communications to mass self-communications. Such discourse is constructed on interconnected nodal points of distrust and unsafety (the formation of scientific and medical doubts, discrediting the quality of vaccines, direct or indirect articulation of the sign of death). This study has recorded the exceptional significance of distrust as a point of catalyzing other nodal points and signs. The construction of discourses of support and resistance to vaccination occurs according to different algorithms: if, in the field of discourse struggle, the articulation of the point of distrust is sufficient for the dominance of the discourse of resistance, then for the discourse of support for vaccination it is necessary to construct various signs and nodal points to reproduce the positions of its dominance. It is obviously that public policy should provide for the meaningful integration of the nodal points of security and trust, as well as the construction of a new nodal point of rallying, which should be articulated not only in the legal framework, but also in the plurality of discourse fields that form the discourse of support for vaccination (speech officials, communications from the responsible authorities and generally within the vaccination information campaign).","PeriodicalId":11146,"journal":{"name":"Day 1 Tue, October 26, 2021","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81930301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Volunteering Under Institutional and Structural Change: Genesis and Agent Influences","authors":"Lubov Bevzenko, O. Zlobina","doi":"10.26565/2077-5105-2021-26-03","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26565/2077-5105-2021-26-03","url":null,"abstract":"The genesis of volunteering as a source of social agency in conditions of social tension and crisis situations shifts research attention from considering volunteering as an activity that supports the work of official structures, to considering it as a self-sufficient activity in solving urgent problems facing society in situations of social instability and institutional instability. As a research perspective, the complexity paradigm is chosen, which offers a view of social processes through the prism of nonlinear system dynamics. The basis of the conceptual framework of the study - the allocation of the two mechanisms of social change – organizational and self-organizational. The processes of social self-organization reveal themselves in the crisis moments of the life of society through the activities of powerful volunteer communities, which become agents of change due to their emergence. The characteristics of such a volunteer community are their attractiveness, procedurality and specific hierarchy, which has a leadership basis. The genesis of the community of volunteers is viewed in the context of socio-structural changes. Using the example of the interaction of volunteers with the communities of internally displaced persons and combatants, it is shown that the communities of donors and recipients are interconnected in their own development. The features of the dynamics of volunteering agency in crisis conditions are determined, which depend on the ratio of self-organizing and organizational mechanisms at different stages of crisis situations. Since the beginning of the crisis, self-organizing structures have been active independent agents, however, as the institutional component strengthens, the initiative to restore public order is gradually shifting to organizational structures and the role of agency in self-organizing structures decreases. A decrease in the energy potential of a volunteering agency is associated with internal restructuring and adaptation of communities that arose at the time of the crisis and were the main recipients of assistance. However, this potential can recover quickly against the background of new challenges (eg pandemic) and unwillingness to respond to the situation by the organizational structures.","PeriodicalId":11146,"journal":{"name":"Day 1 Tue, October 26, 2021","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89512901","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Essence and Features of Democracy in the Interpretation of A. de Tocqueille","authors":"V. Nikolenko","doi":"10.26565/2077-5105-2021-26-04","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.26565/2077-5105-2021-26-04","url":null,"abstract":"The article analyzes the backbone markers of democracy identified by A. Tocqueville against the background of a comparison of aristocratic systems and effective democracy. The essential signs of democratic transformations are presented: a gradual but noticeable increase in the material well-being of an average citizen; effective central government with effective local self-government and significant influence on their decisions of universal human values; public opinion as one of the full-fledged branches of power; a quantitatively limited apparatus of officials/civil servants, as accessible as possible for communication with the population; lack of connection between an ascending political career and personal enrichment; subordination of citizens not to an official, but to the current legislation; education of patriotism by involving as many citizens as possible in the government of the country; mass will expressing with the help of political rights and freedoms. It is noted that such signs, according to A. Tocqueville, include the absence of political censorship, the presence of freedom of speech; the unimportance of the political struggle against the background of solving, first of all, the problems of the country's material life support; public activity; enlightenment of the people; respect for production work; intensive communication within the country with the help of a developed social infrastructure; constant formation of new goals of social development, as well as a permanent desire for their implementation; psychological youth of the average person; optimistic outlook on the future; dynamism of professional opinion regarding the solution of social problems; the rule of law, the equality of all citizens before the law; opportunities for citizens, thanks to the results of their own work, to compete for social success on an equal footing. It is emphasized that the “enemies” of democracy, according to A. Tocqueville, are unlimited, uncontrolled power; desire for its usurpation; use of excessive force; despotism, which is especially harmful to the production of material wealth; political absenteeism; social apathy; inaction; destructive traditionalism; the authority of the individual, associated only with hereditary status and wealth. The attention is focused on one of the paradoxes of A. Tocqueville, in which he saw the advantage of the democratic process. According to the philosopher, among the ruled there are many outstanding people who, as a result of the processes of electoral democracy, for some reason did not find themselves in the circle of the elite. It is emphasized that A. Tocqueville explained this by a wide range of available opportunities for personal self-realization outside of a political career. At the same time, the coming to power of an average person, according to the thinker, contributes to the growth of mass education, social activity, social responsibility, and rational thinking on a societal scale. All this forms a hug","PeriodicalId":11146,"journal":{"name":"Day 1 Tue, October 26, 2021","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77017565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Constructing Dual-Porosity Models from High-Resolution Discrete-Fracture Models Using Deep Neural Networks","authors":"Xupeng He, R. Santoso, M. AlSinan, H. Kwak, H. Hoteit","doi":"10.2118/203901-ms","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2118/203901-ms","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Detailed geological description of fractured reservoirs is typically characterized by the discrete-fracture model (DFM), in which the rock matrix and fractures are explicitly represented in the form of unstructured grids. Its high computation cost makes it infeasible for field-scale applications. Traditional flow-based and static-based methods used to upscale detailed geological DFM to reservoir simulation model suffer from, to some extent, high computation cost and low accuracy, respectively. In this paper, we present a novel deep learning-based upscaling method as an alternative to traditional methods.\u0000 This work aims to build an image-to-value model based on convolutional neural network to model the nonlinear mapping between the high-resolution image of detailed DFM as input and the upscaled reservoir simulation model as output. The reservoir simulation model (herein refers to the dual-porosity model) includes the predicted fracture-fracture transmissibility linking two adjacent grid blocks and fracture-matrix transmissibility within each coarse block. The proposed upscaling workflow comprises the train-validation samples generation, convolutional neural network training-validating process, and model evaluation. We apply a two-point flux approximation (TPFA) scheme based on embedded discrete-fracture model (EDFM) to generate the datasets. We perform trial-error analysis on the coupling training-validating process to update the ratio of train-validation samples, optimize the learning rate and the network architecture. This process is applied until the trained model obtains an accuracy above 90 % for both train-validation samples.\u0000 We then demonstrate its performance with the two-phase reference solutions obtained from the fine model in terms of water saturation profile and oil recovery versus PVI. Results show that the DL-based approach provides a good match with the reference solutions for both water saturation distribution and oil recovery curve. This work manifests the value of the DL-based method for the upscaling of detailed DFM to the dual-porosity model and can be extended to construct generalized dual-porosity, dual-permeability models or include more complex physics, such as capillary and gravity effects.","PeriodicalId":11146,"journal":{"name":"Day 1 Tue, October 26, 2021","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82769401","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Grid Quality Measures for PEBI Grids","authors":"I. Mishev, R. Rin","doi":"10.2118/203961-ms","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2118/203961-ms","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Combining the Perpendicular Bisector (PEBI) grids with the Two Point Flux Approximation (TPFA) scheme demonstrates a potential to accurately model on unstructured grids, conforming to the geological and engineering features of real grids. However, with the increased complexity and resolution of the grids, the PEBI conditions will inevitably be violated in some cells and the approximation properties will be compromised. The objective is to develop accurate and practical grid quality measures that quantify such errors.\u0000 We critically evaluated the existing grid quality measures and found them lacking predictive power in several areas. The available k-orthogonality measures predict error for flow along the strata, although TPFA provides an accurate approximation. The false-positive results are not only misleading but can overwhelm further analysis. We developed the so-called \"truncation error\" grid measure which is probably the most accurate measure for flow through a plane face and accurately measures the error along the strata. We also quantified the error due to the face curvature. Curved faces are bound to exist in any real grid.\u0000 The impact of the quality of the 2-D Delaunay triangulation on TPFA approximation properties is usually not taken into account. We investigate the impact of the size of the smallest angles that can cause considerable increase of the condition number of the matrix and an eventual loss of accuracy, demonstrated with simple examples. Based on the analysis, we provide recommendations. We also show how the size of the largest angles impacts the approximation quality of TPFA. Furthermore, we discuss the impact of the change of the permeability on the TPFA approximation. Finally, we present simple tools that reservoir engineers can use to incorporate the above-mentioned grid quality measures into a workflow. The grid quality measures discussed up to now are static. We also sketch the further extension to dynamic measures, that is, how the static measures can be used to detect change in the flow behavior, potentially leading to increased error.\u0000 We investigate a comprehensive set of methods, several of them new, to measure the static grid quality of TPFA on PEBI grids and possible extension to dynamic measures. All measures can be easily implemented in production reservoir simulators and examined using the suggested tools in a workflow.","PeriodicalId":11146,"journal":{"name":"Day 1 Tue, October 26, 2021","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90084096","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Strategies to Enhance the Performance of Gaussian Mixture Model Fitting for Uncertainty Quantification by Conditioning to Production Data","authors":"G. Gao, J. Vink, F. Saaf, T. Wells","doi":"10.2118/204008-ms","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2118/204008-ms","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 When formulating history matching within the Bayesian framework, we may quantify the uncertainty of model parameters and production forecasts using conditional realizations sampled from the posterior probability density function (PDF). It is quite challenging to sample such a posterior PDF. Some methods e.g., Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), are very expensive (e.g., MCMC) while others are cheaper but may generate biased samples. In this paper, we propose an unconstrained Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) fitting method to approximate the posterior PDF and investigate new strategies to further enhance its performance.\u0000 To reduce the CPU time of handling bound constraints, we reformulate the GMM fitting formulation such that an unconstrained optimization algorithm can be applied to find the optimal solution of unknown GMM parameters. To obtain a sufficiently accurate GMM approximation with the lowest number of Gaussian components, we generate random initial guesses, remove components with very small or very large mixture weights after each GMM fitting iteration and prevent their reappearance using a dedicated filter. To prevent overfitting, we only add a new Gaussian component if the quality of the GMM approximation on a (large) set of blind-test data sufficiently improves.\u0000 The unconstrained GMM fitting method with the new strategies proposed in this paper is validated using nonlinear toy problems and then applied to a synthetic history matching example. It can construct a GMM approximation of the posterior PDF that is comparable to the MCMC method, and it is significantly more efficient than the constrained GMM fitting formulation, e.g., reducing the CPU time by a factor of 800 to 7300 for problems we tested, which makes it quite attractive for large scale history matching problems.","PeriodicalId":11146,"journal":{"name":"Day 1 Tue, October 26, 2021","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76573760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bridging the Gap Between Material Balance and Reservoir Simulation for History Matching and Probabilistic Forecasting Using Machine Learning","authors":"N. Goodwin","doi":"10.2118/203941-ms","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2118/203941-ms","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 Methods for efficient probabilistic history matching and forecasting have been available for complex reservoir studies for nearly 20 years. These require a surprisingly small number of reservoir simulation runs (typically less than 200). Nowadays, the bottleneck for reservoir decision support is building and maintaining a reservoir simulation model. This paper describes an approach which does not require a reservoir simulation model, is data driven, and includes a physics model based on material balance. It can be useful where a full simulation model is not economically justified, or where rapid decisions need to be made.\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 Previous work has described the use of proxy models and Hamiltonian Markov Chain Monte Carlo to produce valid probabilistic forecasts. To generate a data driven model, we take historical measurements of rates and pressures at each well, and apply multi-variate time series to generate a set of differential-algebraic equations (DAE) which can be integrated over time using a fully implicit solver. We combine the time series models with material balance equations, including a simple PVT and Z factor model. The parameters are adjusted in a fully Bayesian manner to generate an ensemble of models and a probabilistic forecast. The use of a DAE distinguishes the approach from normal time-series analysis, where an ARIMA model or state space model is used, and is normally only reliable for short term forecasting.\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 We apply these techniques to the Volve reservoir model, and obtain a good history match. Moreover, the effort to build a reservoir model has been removed. We demonstrate the feasibility of simple physics models, and open up the possibility of combinations of physics models and machine learning models, so that the most appropriate approach can be used depending on resources and reservoir complexity. We have bridged the gap between pure machine learning models and full reservoir simulation.\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 \u0000 The approach to use multi-variate time series analysis to generate a set of ordinary differential equations is novel. The extension of previously described probabilistic forecasting to a generalised model has many possible applications within and outside the oil and gas industry, and is not restricted to reservoir simulation.\u0000","PeriodicalId":11146,"journal":{"name":"Day 1 Tue, October 26, 2021","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78769828","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}