Maxim Pavlovich Frolov, D. Voitenko, Alexander Olegovich Proshin, Anastasiya Ivanova, V. I. Shepelev, Alexander Alexandrovich Verevochkin, Viacheslav Alexandrovich Pustovarov, S. Ignatyev
{"title":"Impact of Conventional Practices on Economic Efficiency as Illustrated by the Construction of Horizontal Sections of Multilateral ERD Wells and Fishbone Wells in Western Siberia","authors":"Maxim Pavlovich Frolov, D. Voitenko, Alexander Olegovich Proshin, Anastasiya Ivanova, V. I. Shepelev, Alexander Alexandrovich Verevochkin, Viacheslav Alexandrovich Pustovarov, S. Ignatyev","doi":"10.2118/206453-ms","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2118/206453-ms","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This paper is a detailed description of the first experience of an ERD wells horizontal section using ultra-low-viscosity drilling fluid as a drilling fluid implemented in the Russia land. This work has great value as an experience that allows to reevaluate the traditional views on the sole influence of drilling fluid parameters on the process of drilling wells.\u0000 The thesis considers the key aspects and practices of improving the technical and economy values of drilling the multilateral ERD wells and FishBone wells in Western Siberia by applying an integrated approach based on three key factors:\u0000 understanding the features of the rheology of drilling fluids; thorough analysis of the results of modeling wellbore washing and cleaning and comparing the calculated values with the actual values of the determined technological parameters in order to predict and control ECD; the collaborative work of the customer and the contractor, so-called \"active supervising\" methodology, aimed on making timely decisions for adjusting of the target requirements during the wells construction, \"in situ\" method, in order to achieve the made goals.\u0000 The main conclusions have been made during the work:\u0000 Effective and sufficient cleaning of annular space can be achieved with minimum values of drilling fluid rheology characteristics. Cuttings and marble bridging agent participate in the filter cake creation. The absence of marble bridging agent particles in the mud composition cannot be a reason of complications (absorption, sticking) when drilling low-permeability reservoirs. The concentration of the marble bridging agent should be determined, taking into account several factors: solids control equipment efficiency, formation permeability, density and drilling fluid composition. the recommended values for the parameters such as lubricant concentration and MBT, must be selected, firstly, based on comprehensive understanding of the idea of each parameter, and secondly, adequately assessing their significance under specific drilling conditions. Competent active supervising of drilling fluid has huge impact on the economy efficiency of well construction, whereas this approach can be beneficial for both the customer and the drilling fluid contractor.\u0000 The implemented on the project approach allowed to save up to 60% for the cost of 1m3 of drilling fluid for horizontal section, as well as to reduce the time spent on the wells construction. The main result of the work: two multilateral wells were successfully drilled with the DDI of 7.2 and 6.55 and high risks of lost circulation. Wells construction was completed by running the liner to the target bottom without any signs of landings. However, the most important achievement is the emerging prospect of replicating the proposed approach to drilling ERD wells for deeper deposits development, that allows us to expect comparable technical and economy effects considering drilling conditions.","PeriodicalId":11017,"journal":{"name":"Day 2 Wed, October 13, 2021","volume":"224 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80078617","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
F. A. Koryakin, Nikolay Yuryevich Tretyakov, V. Vershinin, Roman Yurievich Ponomarev
{"title":"Evaluation of Residual Oil Saturation With Use of Single Well Chemical Tracer Test Swctt For Estimation of Eor Efficiency. From Theory to Experiment","authors":"F. A. Koryakin, Nikolay Yuryevich Tretyakov, V. Vershinin, Roman Yurievich Ponomarev","doi":"10.2118/206421-ms","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2118/206421-ms","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This article provides a brief overview of the theory of tracer studies, describes approaches to the interpretation of tracer studies using both analytical methods and hydrodynamic modeling, compares the results of analytical and numerical interpretation. The article also describes the problems that arise during the interpretation of real case study.","PeriodicalId":11017,"journal":{"name":"Day 2 Wed, October 13, 2021","volume":"66 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84017448","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Deep Geothermal Well Construction Problems and Possible Solutions","authors":"M. Gelfgat, Aleksandr Sergeevich Geraskin","doi":"10.2118/206616-ms","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2118/206616-ms","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The geothermal energy is one of the most promising sources of electricity on the planet; it is available almost anywhere on the continents and resources are inexhaustible. The realization of these possibilities requires solving the problems of deep wells (6-10 km) construction, when the lower horizons are practically impermeable crystalline basement rocks. For effective use of the Earth's heat, bottomhole temperatures must be within 200-300°C. World experience of such deep wells construction is very limited, some examples are given in this work.\u0000 Known schemes of geothermal energy application requires at least two wells construction - for cold fluid injection and superheated fluid production. The rock - circulating fluid heat exchange in the bottomhole requires drilling of inclined, horizontal, or multi-lateral boreholes and hydraulic fracturing application. Such technologies are widely used in the oil and gas fields, but not in crystalline rocks. The article presents an analysis of the prospects for the geothermal wells construction efficiency increasing by using modern directional drilling systems, drilling with casing, technologies for complications eliminating. The possibilities of using alternative hard rock drilling methods by enhancing the standard formation destruction with drill bits are discussed. These are hydraulic hammers, high-pressure abrasive and fluid jets, laser drilling. A fundamentally new plasma drilling technology is considered. The most serious limitation of alternative drilling prospects is the need of additional \"supply lines\" to the bottom: high-pressure fluid; electricity; a plasma forming agent, etc. In this regard, options are being considered for the development of continuous drill strings such as coiled tubing, umbilical, flexible composite systems like subsea pipelines. Some of technological solutions for deep geothermal wells construction, and implementation of petrothermal energy schemes for potential projects are proposed.\u0000 The paper provides an idea of the geothermal well construction technologies, which can ensure the implementation of advanced geo-energy schemes. The problems of geothermal engineering and possible solutions to overcome them, which will contribute to the development of geothermal energy, as the most effective option for decarbonization, are indicated.","PeriodicalId":11017,"journal":{"name":"Day 2 Wed, October 13, 2021","volume":"140 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77954368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Y. Trushin, A. Aleshchenko, O. Zoshchenko, M. Arsamakov, I. Tkachev, D. S. Kruglov
{"title":"A New Approach to Simulation of Wax Precipitation During Cold Water Injection in Carbonate Reservoir of Kharyaga Oilfield","authors":"Y. Trushin, A. Aleshchenko, O. Zoshchenko, M. Arsamakov, I. Tkachev, D. S. Kruglov","doi":"10.2118/206495-ms","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2118/206495-ms","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The paper describes a methodology for assessing the impact of wax deposition in reservoir oil during cold water injection into heterogeneous carbonate reservoir D3-III of the Kharyaga field. The main goal is to determine the optimal amount of hot water that must be injected before switching to cold water without affecting the field development. The paper presents the results of laboratory studies to determine the thermophysical properties of oil, samples of net reservoir and non-reservoir rock, as well as the results of laboratory studies to determine the conditions and nature of wax deposition in oil when the temperature and pressure conditions change. Calculations were carried out to describe the physical model of oil displacement by water of various temperatures. A series of synthetic sector model runs was performed, which includes the average properties of the selected reservoir and the results of laboratory studies in order to determine the effect of cold water injection on the development performance.","PeriodicalId":11017,"journal":{"name":"Day 2 Wed, October 13, 2021","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82907285","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I. Ermolovich, A. Shamkov, I. Seleznev, Nikolay Nikolayevich Yelin, Andrey Vladimirovich Duryagin
{"title":"Comprehensive Approach to Optimization of Macrooperations in Oil and Gas Production Based on Integrated Planning","authors":"I. Ermolovich, A. Shamkov, I. Seleznev, Nikolay Nikolayevich Yelin, Andrey Vladimirovich Duryagin","doi":"10.2118/206534-ms","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2118/206534-ms","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The task of integrated planning, as one of the main tools to improve the operational efficiency of production activities of oil and gas production operators, is the most relevant. Due to the high intensity, today all operators emphasize the importance of automating the integrated planning process.\u0000 An integrated plan means combining, ranking and possible combination, as well as timely updating the order of implementation of activities presented in separate functional plans, for which various services are responsible. At the same time, a functional plan is a group of activities united in its specificity. Examples of functional plans are well intervention (TR), well workover (KR), PP (routine maintenance), Research, OTM (organizational -technical measures), PPR (scheduled preventive work), VNS (commissioning of new wells).\u0000 The goal of integrated planning is to execute the mining company's business plan in the most efficient way in terms of economic performance within the existing constraints. The constraints can be various aspects, such as the limited number of crews of the required specialization and special equipment for the activities, the need to move resources to the location of the activity taking into account the seasonality and types of transport, a strict sequence of operations within one activity, technological constraints associated with the inability to simultaneously conduct various activities at one cluster site, restrictions on the utilization of associated petroleum gas.\u0000 Integrated planning distinguishes between planning horizons. As a rule, the horizon does not exceed one year and is designed to assess the feasibility of the company's business plan and justify capital and operating costs. Annual planning must take into account both targeted (named, assigned to a specific well or field site) and unaddressed (called \"virtual\") activities based on past year statistics. Monthly and 90-day plans are updated on a monthly basis and are more detailed and accurate than the annual plan, containing only targeted activities. Monthly planning clarifies the feasibility of the business plan in terms of production, budget and other criteria. In addition to the approved annual, monthly and 90-day plan, an operational (working) plan is formed, which is updated on a daily basis or upon request. As a rule, the operational plan is formed for a two-week planning horizon.\u0000 The traditional integrated planning approach has its drawbacks and opportunities for improvement. The essence of the traditional approach of integrated planning is that different operational services, such as Geological Service, Well Intervention Service, Pipeline Maintenance Service, Chief Power Engineer, Chief Engineer, etc., annually and monthly submit a list of activities for inclusion in the annual, monthly (90-day) production program, after which the integrated planner combines all activities, combining them if possible, trying to achieve the targets as closely as possible, s","PeriodicalId":11017,"journal":{"name":"Day 2 Wed, October 13, 2021","volume":"38 3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78217533","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
D. Mylnikov, Viktor Nazdrachev, E. Korelskiy, Y. Petrakov, Alexey Sobolev
{"title":"Artificial Neural Network as a Method for Pore Pressure Prediction throughout the Field","authors":"D. Mylnikov, Viktor Nazdrachev, E. Korelskiy, Y. Petrakov, Alexey Sobolev","doi":"10.2118/206558-ms","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2118/206558-ms","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Geomechanical model construction is an essential part of field development processes planning. Building a correct pore pressure model is one of the key tasks within the process of geomechanical model construction. The traditional approach to pore pressure modeling in oil and gas industry is based on the empirical analytical models usage. This approach has a number of disadvantages, which often lead to the constructed pore pressure model to be incorrect. The authors highlight two most significant disadvantages of the traditional approach: 1) a priori discrepancy between the empirical model and fundamental physical laws; 2) the impossibility of selecting such a combination of parameters of the standard analytical model, for which the resulting pressure corresponds to the entire set of actual field data (pore pressure measurements).\u0000 This paper proposes a methodology for assessing the pore pressure distribution across the field, based on the usage of neural network technology. This approach potentially eliminates both of the above disadvantages from the pore pressure model building.","PeriodicalId":11017,"journal":{"name":"Day 2 Wed, October 13, 2021","volume":"45 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74149626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Shakhova, Natalia Lisyutina, I. Lebedeva, Oleg Valshin, Roman Savinov, Robert Famiev, A. Dementyev, D. Marushkin, V. Bochkarev, Vladimir Surmin, E. Bolychev
{"title":"Remote Reservoir Exploration in Odoptu-More Field by Delivering ERD Wells Using Multilateral Drilling Technology","authors":"A. Shakhova, Natalia Lisyutina, I. Lebedeva, Oleg Valshin, Roman Savinov, Robert Famiev, A. Dementyev, D. Marushkin, V. Bochkarev, Vladimir Surmin, E. Bolychev","doi":"10.2118/206450-ms","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2118/206450-ms","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This paper provides the results that were achieved and shares the drilling unique practices that were implemented to deliver the first complex bilateral extended reach drilling (ERD) well in Odoptu-more field (North Dome).\u0000 Well design driven by geological objectives considered drilling 215.9mm main and pilot holes (PH). Well complexity was governed by the type of a profile having ERD ratio of 5.22 (main hole) / 4.60 (PH) and trajectory's 3D nature (turn in azimuth of 90 degrees) compared to previous wells in the project drilled mainly with 2D profiles. Apart from the problems connected with drilling and casing upper sections key challenges comprised kicking off in 215.9mm open hole at 5955m MD and 1512m TVD with rotary steerable system, setting cement plugs at shallow true vertical depth (TVD) at 89 degrees of inclination to abandon laterally drilled PH, delivering 168.3mm production liner to bottom with a risk of entering a lateral while running in hole.\u0000 An effective collaboration between integrated engineering team and customer departments went far beyond ERD standard set of operations already existing in the project thus allowing to break its own records and to set new achievements due to integrated technological approach. The longest 444.5mm section (2975 m) was drilled in one run achieving the record daily drilling rate and rate of penetration (ROP). Cementing of 244.5mm floated liner resulted in the highest good cement bond integrity percentage ever achieved among other wells in project due to new ways of casing standoff and fluid rheology hierarchy modeling. For the first time in the project 215.9mm main horizontal hole in extreme reach ERD well has been drilled by kicking off in open hole from the pilot horizontal one with push-the-bit rotary steerable system without a kickoff plug with pilot hole being abandoned by setting cement plugs. Project-specific risk assessment conducted by team allowed successful deployment of 168.3mm liner into the main hole. Moreover, due to thorough engineering planning electrical submersible pump (ESP) was run without extending 244.5mm liner to surface by tie-back thus saving additional 7 days.\u0000 Drilling first bilateral ERD well unlocked opportunities for the operator to reach, explore and develop different extended geological targets thus eliminating well construction process of additional wells on drilling upper sections.","PeriodicalId":11017,"journal":{"name":"Day 2 Wed, October 13, 2021","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82163480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
S. Gusev, E. Kolbikova, O. Malinovskaya, A. Garaev, Robert Kamilevich Valiev
{"title":"Forecast of Prospective Oil Saturation Zones in the Devonian Carbonate Deposits of the Kharyaginsky Field Based on Geological and Geophysical Information Analysis by Using Machine Learning Methods","authors":"S. Gusev, E. Kolbikova, O. Malinovskaya, A. Garaev, Robert Kamilevich Valiev","doi":"10.2118/206520-ms","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2118/206520-ms","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The Kharyaginskoye oil field is located on the territory of the Nenets Autonomous District and belongs to the Timan-Pechora Basin oil and gas province. The main object of development is a Devonian age carbonate reservoir. The productive zones of the studied object are mainly confined to thin bed low-porosity reservoirs with a complex structure of void space.\u0000 The high heterogeneity of deposits laterally and the presence of different levels of oil-water contact (OWC) in the marginal isolated zones necessitate a more accurate assessment of the oil-saturated effective thicknesses. The increase in the reliability of the interpretation was achieved by the joint analysis of borehole and seismic studies using Machine Learning methods.\u0000 At the stage of configuring the facies model based on well logs and core data, a Multi-Resolution Graph-based Clustering MRGC was used, which provides effective integration of geological and geophysical information. The multi-dimensional dot-pattern recognition method based on k-Nearest neighbors algorithm (k-NN), and by combining various criteria, it allows solving the problem of non-linearity of the relationships between logging responses and the corresponding lithology.\u0000 The algorithm of the democratic association of neural networks DNNA was used to propagate electrofacies in the inter-well space. The method optimizes the use of seismic data before summation and after summation together with well data through a controlled process that provides a calibrated and scaled distribution of facies. The most probable facies distribution can be used directly as a property in reservoir modeling or as a constraint for modeling.\u0000 It is known that there is no direct connection between a certain type of wave pattern and the lithological composition of rocks, therefore, the analysis of changing reflection characteristics is performed in conjunction with geophysical data, such as well logging. In addition, a priori geological information about the work area is involved. An important condition for the effective application of facies analysis is the presence of representative core material and the availability of high-quality well information.\u0000 At the first stage of the work, the lithotyping of carbonate deposits was performed according to the macro description of the core, based on the classification of limestones according to R. H. Dunham. Then, using the multidimensional statistical recognition algorithm MRGC, the relationships between the selected lithotypes and logging responses were obtained. As a result of the tuning, a cluster model was obtained that allows us to distinguish electrofacies characterized by an increased filtration and capacitance potential.\u0000 At the second stage, the obtained electrofacies, considering the nature of saturation, were used to train cubes of seismic attributes and calculate the cubes of lithofacies and the probability of the existence of each lithofacies. The key point in the distribution was the use","PeriodicalId":11017,"journal":{"name":"Day 2 Wed, October 13, 2021","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81785524","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Krasnikov, R. Melikov, E. Korelskiy, Y. Petrakov, Aleksey Evgenievich Sobolev
{"title":"Solving the Inverse Problem of Geomechanical Monitoring to Improve the Efficiency of Field Development","authors":"A. Krasnikov, R. Melikov, E. Korelskiy, Y. Petrakov, Aleksey Evgenievich Sobolev","doi":"10.2118/206556-ms","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2118/206556-ms","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The purpose of geomechanical monitoring at mineral deposits, including oil and gas, is to control the state of the rock mass, forecast possible risks and complications at all stages of the field's life: reservoir and caprock integrity failure, violation of the integrity of drilling and system of well completion, infrastructure facilities.\u0000 The paper suggests approaches to the organization of a geomechanical monitoring system based on observations of displacements and deformations of the ground surface (or seafloor) during the development of reservoir and target interval.\u0000 There are analytical and numerical approaches have been tested on simple models with pore pressure changes, considering the heterogeneity of elastic-strength properties.","PeriodicalId":11017,"journal":{"name":"Day 2 Wed, October 13, 2021","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80206947","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Evseenkov, D. K. Kuchkildin, K. I. Krechetov, Semyon Alexandrovich Ospishchev, V. Kotezhekov, E. Yudin
{"title":"Short-Term Forecasting of Well Production Based on a Hybrid Probabilistic Approach","authors":"A. Evseenkov, D. K. Kuchkildin, K. I. Krechetov, Semyon Alexandrovich Ospishchev, V. Kotezhekov, E. Yudin","doi":"10.2118/206519-ms","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2118/206519-ms","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The presented article is dedicated to creation and testing of probabilistic ensemble computational tool for operational forecasting of well production in short term (STF). The ensemble consisted of models based on such physical and mathematical tools as: the equation of non-stationary filtration, material balance, Darcy's law and machine learning models. After calculations by each model, their forecasts are combined into a single ensemble forecast. The hybrid approach is based on the Monte Carlo method on Markov chains as a separate probabilistic model using Bayes’ formula. In this case, statistical weights of each model (the degree of confidence in each model) is determined in the form of a probability distribution based on the reliability of previously performed forecasts. The test results presented in this article were obtained on the real field data. The obtained forecasts of individual models and the ensemble were compared to real data. Real data tool usage analysis showed that the proposed approach gives a small error in comparison with actual measurements. Efficiency of calculations allows to automatically adapt the model to the entire well production history (several hundred wells) within a few hours.","PeriodicalId":11017,"journal":{"name":"Day 2 Wed, October 13, 2021","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78785993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}