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The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks 能源价格冲击的经济效应
CEPR: International Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 2007-11-01 DOI: 10.1257/jel.46.4.871
L. Kilian
{"title":"The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks","authors":"L. Kilian","doi":"10.1257/jel.46.4.871","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.46.4.871","url":null,"abstract":"Large fluctuations in energy prices have been a distinguishing characteristic of the U.S. economy since the 1970s. Turmoil in the Middle East, rising energy prices in the U.S. and evidence of global warming recently have reignited interest in the link between energy prices and economic performance. This paper addresses a number of the key issues in this debate: What are energy price shocks and where do they come from? How responsive is energy demand to changes in energy prices? How do consumers' expenditure patterns evolve in response to energy price shocks? How do energy price shocks affect real output, inflation, stock markets and the balance-of-payments? Why do energy price increases seem to cause recessions, but energy price decreases do not seem to cause expansions? Why has there been a surge in gasoline prices in recent years? Why has this new energy price shock not caused a recession so far? Have the effects of energy price shocks waned since the 1980s and, if so, why? As the paper demonstrates, it is critical to account for the endogeneity of energy prices and to differentiate between the effects of demand and supply shocks in energy markets, when answering these questions.","PeriodicalId":110030,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123170227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1109
Technological Diversification 技术多样化
CEPR: International Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 2007-10-01 DOI: 10.1257/aer.103.1.378
Miklós Koren, Silvana Tenreyro
{"title":"Technological Diversification","authors":"Miklós Koren, Silvana Tenreyro","doi":"10.1257/aer.103.1.378","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.103.1.378","url":null,"abstract":"Economies at early stages of development are often shaken by abrupt changes in growth rates, whereas in advanced economies growth rates tend to be relatively stable. To explain this pattern, we propose a theory of technological diversification. Production makes use of different input varieties, which are subject to imperfectly correlated shocks. Technological progress takes the form of an increase in the number of varieties, raising average productivity. In addition, the expansion in the number of varieties in our model provides diversification benefits against variety-specific shocks and it can hence lower the volatility of output growth. Technological complexity evolves endogenously in response to profit incentives. The decline in volatility thus arises as a by-product of firms' incentives to increase profits and is hence a likely outcome of the development process. We quantitatively asses the predictions of the model in light of the empirical evidence and find that for reasonable parameter values, the model can generate a decline in volatility with the level of development comparable to that in the data.","PeriodicalId":110030,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"42 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117332922","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 130
Who Prices Locally? Survey Evidence of Swiss Exporters 谁在当地定价?瑞士出口商调查证据
CEPR: International Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 2007-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1031844
Andreas M. Fischer, Matthias Lutz, M. Wälti
{"title":"Who Prices Locally? Survey Evidence of Swiss Exporters","authors":"Andreas M. Fischer, Matthias Lutz, M. Wälti","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1031844","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1031844","url":null,"abstract":"Survey information on Swiss exporters is used to test the hypothesis that firm-specific factors, in particular firm size, are important determinants of pricing-to-market (PTM). The survey asked exporters whether they set different prices across markets and, if so, whether price segmentation occurred because of pricing conditions in the local market or other factors. The empirical analysis is based on a probit model that regresses a binary-choice variable of PTM on firm size and other control variables. The main empirical finding is that firm size and PTM are positively and significantly correlated. A further result is that while firms whose main export market is in the Euro area are less likely to engage in PTM, firm size plays a bigger role for them. These results are robust across different PTM classifications, regression specifications, export destinations, and industrial sectors.","PeriodicalId":110030,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"422 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132537662","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 32
Monetary Policy, Default Risk and the Exchange Rate 货币政策、违约风险与汇率
CEPR: International Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 2007-09-01 DOI: 10.1590/S0034-71402011000100003
Bernardo Guimaraes, Carlos Eduardo Soares Gonçalves
{"title":"Monetary Policy, Default Risk and the Exchange Rate","authors":"Bernardo Guimaraes, Carlos Eduardo Soares Gonçalves","doi":"10.1590/S0034-71402011000100003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1590/S0034-71402011000100003","url":null,"abstract":"In a country with high probability of default, higher interest rates may render the currency less attractive if sovereign default is costly. This paper develops that intuition in a simple model and estimates the effect of changes in interest rates on the exchange rate in Brazil using data from the dates surrounding the monetary policy committee meetings and the methodology of identification through heteroskedasticity. Indeed, we find that unexpected increases in interest rates tend to lead the Brazilian currency to depreciate. It follows that granting more independence to a central bank that focus solely on inflation is not always a free-lunch.","PeriodicalId":110030,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"419 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117339863","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 16
Reforms, Macroeconomic Policy and Economic Performance in Germany 德国的改革、宏观经济政策和经济表现
CEPR: International Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 2007-08-01 DOI: 10.4324/9780203928530-9
W. Carlin, D. Soskice
{"title":"Reforms, Macroeconomic Policy and Economic Performance in Germany","authors":"W. Carlin, D. Soskice","doi":"10.4324/9780203928530-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203928530-9","url":null,"abstract":"The conventional diagnosis of Germany’s poor economic performance focuses on supply-side weaknesses and the need for more vigorous reforms to make low-skill labour markets more flexible. We question this on both theoretical and empirical grounds. In an extended version of a New Keynesian model shifts in aggregate demand can move the economy along a range of constant-inflation medium-run unemployment equilibria. The evolution of the real exchange rate and the external balance help to identify whether aggregate supply or aggregate demand shifts have been dominant in accounting for changes in unemployment. We provide some prima facie evidence for Germany and the UK that aggregate demand factors have played an important role in sustaining growth in the UK and weakening it in Germany over the medium run. We show that Germany has a relatively strong record in implementing OECD recommended reforms but the expected employment effects in low-skill service sectors appear disappointing and poverty has increased. By contrast, it is in high productivity sectors including services that the German economy has performed well, especially in exports. Here labour markets are not flexible in the conventional sense: codetermination, vocational training, and coordinated wage bargaining are important. We pursue the implications of these claims for the design and political economy of reforms in Germany.","PeriodicalId":110030,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116894824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 37
Debt Stabilisation Bias and the Taylor Principle: Optimal Policy in a New Keynesian Model with Government Debt and Inflation Persistence 债务稳定偏差与泰勒原则:政府债务与通胀持续的新凯恩斯模型中的最优政策
CEPR: International Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 2007-08-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781451867701.001
Sven Jari Stehn, D. Vines
{"title":"Debt Stabilisation Bias and the Taylor Principle: Optimal Policy in a New Keynesian Model with Government Debt and Inflation Persistence","authors":"Sven Jari Stehn, D. Vines","doi":"10.5089/9781451867701.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451867701.001","url":null,"abstract":"Leith and Wren-Lewis (2007) have shown that government debt is returned to its pre-shock level in a New Keynesian model under optimal discretionary policy. This has two important implications for monetary and fiscal policy. First, in a high-debt economy, it may be optimal for discretionary monetary policy to cut the interest rate in response to a cost-push shock - thereby violating the Taylor principle - although this will not be true if inflation is significantly persistent. Second, the optimal fiscal response to such a shock is more active under discretion than commitment, whatever the degree of inflation persistence.","PeriodicalId":110030,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"1017 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123117058","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 15
Escaping Nash and Volatile Inflation 逃离纳什和不稳定的通货膨胀
CEPR: International Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 2007-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1009161
Martin Ellison, Anthony D. Yates
{"title":"Escaping Nash and Volatile Inflation","authors":"Martin Ellison, Anthony D. Yates","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1009161","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1009161","url":null,"abstract":"Why is inflation so much lower and at the same time more stable in developed economies in the 1990s, compared with the 1970s? This paper suggests that the United Kingdom, United States and other countries may have escaped from a volatile inflation equilibrium. Our argument builds on the story proposed by Tom Sargent in The conquest of American inflation, where the fall in inflation in the 1980s was attributed to the changing beliefs informing monetary policy. To explain the escape in inflation volatility, we unwind one of Sargent's simplifications and allow the monetary authority to react to some of the shocks in the economy. In this new model, a revised account of recent history is that when the evidence turned against the existence of a long-run inflation-output trade-off in the 1980s there was an escape from high inflation, but the authorities were also persuaded to stop using changes in inflation to offset shocks. Inflation and inflation volatility therefore escaped in tandem. Our analysis also sheds some light on why the escape in inflation occurred at the time it did. Our model, like the Sargent model it derives from, omits the revolution in institutional design and understanding that underpins monetary policy. So the gloomy predictions for the future derived from a literal reading of it are likely to be unfounded.","PeriodicalId":110030,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"54 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133404790","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Gender Roles and Technological Progress 性别角色与技术进步
CEPR: International Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 2007-06-01 DOI: 10.3386/W13179
S. Albanesi, Claudia Olivetti
{"title":"Gender Roles and Technological Progress","authors":"S. Albanesi, Claudia Olivetti","doi":"10.3386/W13179","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W13179","url":null,"abstract":"Until the early decades of the 20th century, women spent more than 60% of their prime-age years either pregnant or nursing. Since then, the introduction of infant formula reduced women's comparative advantage in infant care, by providing an effective breast milk substitute. In addition, improved medical knowledge and obstetric practices reduced the time cost associated with women's reproductive role. We explore the hypothesis that these developments enabled married women to increase their participation in the labour force, thus providing the incentive to invest in market skills, which in turn reduced their earnings differential with respect to men. We document these changes and develop a quantitative model that aims to capture their impact. Our results suggest that progress in medical technologies related to motherhood was essential to generate a significant rise in the participation of married women between 1920 and 1950, in particular those with young children.","PeriodicalId":110030,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122528510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 84
Unemployment Insurance Design: Inducing Moving and Retraining 失业保险设计:诱导迁移与再培训
CEPR: International Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 2007-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/J.EUROECOREV.2007.08.004
John Hassler, José Vincente Rodríguez Mora
{"title":"Unemployment Insurance Design: Inducing Moving and Retraining","authors":"John Hassler, José Vincente Rodríguez Mora","doi":"10.1016/J.EUROECOREV.2007.08.004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/J.EUROECOREV.2007.08.004","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":110030,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"666 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"119538814","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 10
(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability (Un)可预测性和宏观经济稳定性
CEPR: International Macroeconomics (Topic) Pub Date : 2006-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.890990
Antonello D’Agostino, D. Giannone, Paolo Surico
{"title":"(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability","authors":"Antonello D’Agostino, D. Giannone, Paolo Surico","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.890990","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.890990","url":null,"abstract":"The ability of popular statistical methods, the Federal Reserve Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters to improve upon the forecasts of inflation and real activity from naive models has declined significantly during the most recent period of greater macroeconomic stability. The decline in the predictability of inflation is associated with a break down in the predictive power of real activity, especially in the housing sector. The decline in the predictability of real activity is associated with a break down in the predictive power of the term spread.","PeriodicalId":110030,"journal":{"name":"CEPR: International Macroeconomics (Topic)","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2006-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134327880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 187
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