Wiley-Blackwell: OPEC Energy Review最新文献

{"title":"Optimal Monetary Policy in the Monetary Union: Effects on Business Cycles","authors":"M. Pedram","doi":"10.1111/j.1753-0237.2010.00183.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1753-0237.2010.00183.x","url":null,"abstract":"The difficulties of a common monetary policy in an economic and monetary union are well known where there are differences between the stage of the business cycles and inflation pressures. In this paper, I will show that in a simple open macro model and by using weighted mean mechanism monetary authorities can employ a common monetary policy to synchronise diverging business cycles in the member states.","PeriodicalId":103205,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: OPEC Energy Review","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123873210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"World Aviation Fuel Demand Outlook","authors":"M. Mazraati","doi":"10.1111/j.1753-0237.2010.00174.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1753-0237.2010.00174.x","url":null,"abstract":"The ton-kilometre performed as a measure of world air traffic grew 6.1 per cent annually during the last three decades despite many impediments during this period, such as the Asian financial crisis, severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak, wars in the Middle East and many security-related events. Although all of the world's regions are experiencing fast growth, the aviation traffic pattern varies by region. However, the traffic growth led to more demand for aviation fuel. World aviation oil demand was 1.18 mb/d in 1971. It experienced an annual growth rate of 2.9 per cent, 0.2 per cent ahead of the transportation sector growth rate, and reaching 4.9 mb/d in 2006. With this consumption level, the aviation sector is the second major consumer with an 11.2 per cent share in total oil demand in the transportation sector. The aviation sector burns about 5.8 per cent of total oil consumed in the world. Technology improvement and better load management among other factors caused ongoing improvement in energy efficiency. Regional econometric modelling showed that aviation fuel demand is inelastic to aviation fuel prices despite their inverse impacts on financial balances of individual airliners. The fuel demand is highly responsive to aviation traffic that in turn is mainly a function of economic growth. Elasticises of fuel demand and aviation traffic confirmed the continuation of the ongoing energy intensity decline in the aviation sector by all the regions of the world. In the reference case, aviation incremental fuel demand will be 2.7 mb/d in 2030, which would leave aviation demand at 7.8 mb/d in the same year. Most of the incremental demand, i.e. 0.75 mb/d, will be contributed by China. Copyright 2010 The Author. Journal compilation 2010 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.","PeriodicalId":103205,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: OPEC Energy Review","volume":"18 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133191395","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Responsiveness of Remittances to Price of Oil: The Case of the GCC","authors":"G. Naufal, Ali Termos","doi":"10.1111/j.1753-0237.2009.00166.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1753-0237.2009.00166.x","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the responsiveness of remittances from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to the changes in the price of crude oil. Most of the GCC countries rank in the top 20 remitting countries in the world. We find that oil price elasticity of remittances is around 0.4. While most studies have examined the impact of remittances on the real economic activities in the receiving countries, this study emphasises the impact of remittances on the remitting countries. We examine various policy implications with regard to macroeconomic shocks, monetary policy and fiscal policy of the GCC countries.","PeriodicalId":103205,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: OPEC Energy Review","volume":"191 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116781503","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Impact of Asymmetric Regulation on Surplus and Welfare: The Case of Gas Release Programmes","authors":"G. Bahgat","doi":"10.1111/j.1753-0237.2009.00168.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1753-0237.2009.00168.x","url":null,"abstract":"Some European regulators have decided to force competition in their nationalmarkets. They have decided to go beyond the second directive and apply asymmetric regulation. Gas release programs and market shares constraints are the two asymmetric decisions imposed to incumbents. When a regulator imposes a gas release program to an incumbent, this operator is compelled to release quantities of its long term contracts to its competitor. In this paper, we will focus on gas release and its impact on welfare, consumer surplus and on the level of released quantities set by regulators. The aim of a gas release program is to give access to natural gas to competitors. They become actives on the market and are in competition with the incumbent. These programs are time limited. They only help competitors in expecting the development of hubs or new investments in importation infrastructures. If competitors want to stay active after the program, they may find others supply sources to increase security of supply. The gas release can induce Raising Rival's Costs or “Self-Sabotage” strategies. We use a Cournot model with capacity constraints to answer two questions. First, we will study the impact of these strategies on consumer surplus and welfare. We will show that there are no impact on consumer surplus but the welfare decreases. The gas release program introduces a transfer of profit between competitor and incumbent, reduces welfare because of the increase in costs of supply, but has no impact on total consumed quantities. Then, we will suppose that the regulator is setting released quantities maximising welfare. Gas release price is often based on costs plus a bid or a fixed premium. Quantities are set with a less obvious process. We will demonstrate that the regulator must set released quantities : - that would not be so high if incumbent's supplies are small to avoid Self- Sabotage or RRC strategies; - as a function of incumbent's supplies if they are in intermediate values to avoid strategies seen above and to optimise quantities sold on the market; - at a sufficient level to let the two operators playing their Cournot best reply function. Finally, we will conclude that the regulator can avoid RRC or Self-Sabotage strategies in maximising the welfare when it decides gas released quantities. Gathering from empirical studies, these quantities should not be so high in order to let a significant difference between the capacities of both competitor and incumbent to avoid collusive behaviours.","PeriodicalId":103205,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: OPEC Energy Review","volume":"323 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116630496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Economics of Transit Oil and Gas Pipelines: A Review of the Fundamentals","authors":"E. Omonbude","doi":"10.1111/j.1753-0237.2009.00163.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1753-0237.2009.00163.x","url":null,"abstract":"The growing relevance of transit oil and gas pipelines is reflected in the general anticipation of an increase in their construction in the future because of factors such as the increasing discoveries of reserves in remote and land-locked locations, the depletion of reserves close to established markets, and improvements in cost-effective technological methods of exploration and production in previously uneconomic reserves. Recent disputes between parties to transit pipeline agreements demonstrate, in addition to other problems, the relevance of a fundamental analysis of the workings of oil and gas pipelines in economics. The objective of this paper therefore is to provide a fundamental framework for understanding and analysing transit oil and gas pipelines. The paper finds that the concept of economic rent, natural monopoly and basic cost concepts clearly explain the rationale behind the imposition of a transit fee, although they do not sufficiently define how they are determined.","PeriodicalId":103205,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: OPEC Energy Review","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127504250","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Leading Indicators for Arabian Gulf Oil Tanker Rates","authors":"Eric Tham","doi":"10.1111/j.1753-0237.2008.00147.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1753-0237.2008.00147.x","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, price drivers for the Arabian Gulf oil tanker rates were derived from the Bayesian logistic regression to form a leading indicator. A universe of price drivers was filtered based on statistical criteria and speculative backtest results. Results showed that refining margins in Asia, crude production in the Arabian Gulf, the vessel utilisation rate and Brent-Dubai spreads were the most significant price drivers of TD3. A time series of these drivers indicates that Arabian Gulf production has a declining importance relative to the Brent-Dubai spreads since 2004. A vector error correction mechanism analysis of the TD1 and TD3 benchmarks indicates that TD1 returns lag behind TD3 rates. Copyright 2008 The Author. Journal compilation 2008 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.","PeriodicalId":103205,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: OPEC Energy Review","volume":"92 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121075373","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamics of Petroleum Markets in OECD Countries in a Monthly VAR-VEC Model (1995-2007)","authors":"M. Asali","doi":"10.1111/j.1753-0237.2008.00143.x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1753-0237.2008.00143.x","url":null,"abstract":"This paper contains some results of a study in which the dynamics of petroleum markets in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is investigated through a vector auto regression (VAR)-vector error correction model. The time series of the model comprises the monthly data for the variables demand for oil in the OECD, WTI in real term as a benchmark oil price, industrial production in OECD as a proxy for income and commercial stocks of crude oil and oil products in OECD for the time period of January 1995 to September 2007. The detailed results of this empirical research are presented in different sections of the paper; nevertheless, the general result that emerges from this study could be summarised as follows: (i) there is convincing evidence of the series being non-stationary and integrated of order one I(1) with clear signs of co-integration relations between the series; (ii) the VAR system of the empirical study appears stable and restores its dynamics as usual, following a shock to the rate of changes of different variables of the model, taking between five and eight periods (months in our case); (iii) we find the lag length of 2 as being optimal for the estimated VAR model; (iv) significant impact of changes in the commercial crude and products' inventory level on oil price and on demand for oil is highlighted in our empirical study and in different formulations of the VAR model, indicating the importance of the changes in the stocks' level on oil market dynamics; and (v) income elasticity of demand for oil appears to be prominent and statistically significant in most estimated models of the VAR system in the long run, while price elasticity of demand for oil is found to be negligible and insignificant in the short run. However, while aggregate oil consumption does not appear to be very sensitive to the changes of oil prices (which is believed to be because of the so-called 'rebound effect' of oil (energy) efficiency in the macro level) in the macro level, the declining trend of oil intensity (oil used for production of unit value of goods and services), particularly when there is an upward trend in oil price, clearly indicates the channels through which persistent changes in oil prices could affect the demand for oil in OECD countries. Copyright 2008 The Author. Journal compilation 2008 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.","PeriodicalId":103205,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: OPEC Energy Review","volume":"60 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131200778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Real Purchasing Power of Oil Revenues for OPEC Member Countries: A Broad Currency Basket and Dynamic Trade Pattern Approach","authors":"M. Mazraati","doi":"10.1111/J.0277-0180.2005.00149.X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/J.0277-0180.2005.00149.X","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this paper is to examine the real purchasing power of OPEC Member Countries' oil revenues, which are subject to \"the value of the US dollar vis-a-vis other major currencies\" and \"world imported inflation\". The exponential weighting average formula with a broad basket of currencies is suggested. The basket of currencies is labelled as a broad currency basket and includes the major trading partners of OPEC Member Countries. The weights are normalized OPEC import shares of the countries of the basket and are updated and adjusted every year to incorporate a gradual change in the trade pattern. In other words, the dynamic trade pattern approach is incorporated in the calculations. The nominal dollar oil revenues of OPEC Member Countries are about $5,099 billion during 1970 to 2004, of which $3,725 bn (73 per cent) have been lost due to imported inflation and the dollar's depreciation. Imported inflation and dollar depreciation have had a respective 78.6 per cent and 21.4 per cent contribution to the losses of the purchasing power of OPEC Member Countries. The imported inflation rate approaches a stable low level, but OPEC still has a lot of concerns on dollar swings. The euro offers opportunities for many oil-exporting nations that have extensive trade relations with Euro-zone countries. Payments for oil exports can be invoked in euros at the prevailing dollar-euro rate on the day of a given contract, or any other trigger formula. This would immunize a major portion of OPEC oil revenues from dollar depreciation.","PeriodicalId":103205,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: OPEC Energy Review","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2005-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123204494","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Henry Hub and National Balancing Point Prices: What Will Be the International Gas Price Reference?","authors":"Ahmed El Hachemi Mazighi","doi":"10.1111/J.0277-0180.2005.00152.X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/J.0277-0180.2005.00152.X","url":null,"abstract":"One of the lessons in the history of international trade in commodities is the emergence - sooner or later - of an international price reference, most commonly known as an international marker price. In the area of oil, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) plays the role of a marker for sour crudes traded in the Atlantic basin. Brent oil fulfils this function for sweet crudes traded in Europe. Another important aspect in the area of global commodities is that the emergence of a marker price is not always necessarily related to the relative share of production or exports of the commodity, but primarily to the existence of an organized market for this commodity. Today, while international gas trade is intensifying, we still lack an international price reference for this commodity. This is due to the fact that the international trade of natural gas is still highly regionalized. It is also due to the fact that most gas markets are still regulated. Nevertheless, deregulation efforts have been implemented in both developed (the United States, the United Kingdom, continental Europe, Korea) and developing countries (Brazil, Chile) and have led to new market structures based on more competition in all segments of the gas chain, except transportation. In the meantime, price structures based on supply and demand principles are supposed to have emerged in the US and UK markets in the 1990s as a result of the implementation of deregulation measures. Today, the US gas market, which represents more than 660 billion cubic metres per year of consumption and the UK gas market, which is close to 100 bcm annually, are considered mature enough to make the principles of supply and demand operate inside these markets. In fact, the Henry Hub (HH) price, which is determined at a physical location in Louisiana, US, and the national balancing point (NBP) price, which is determined somewhere inside the national transmission system (NTS), without any precise location, are considered as potential candidates to serve as a marker price in the international trade of gas. The objective of this paper is to examine some fundamental properties of the HH and NBP prices and assess which of them has the biggest potential to become an international price reference. Our main conclusions are: 1. According to the relatively huge volume of gas traded on the US spot market, compared with the UK, and according to the experience accumulated by the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in gas trading, the HH price has a bigger potential than the NBP to become an international price reference, particularly because the UK market is supposed to import more and more gas indexed to oil in the coming years. 2. However, on the price fluctuation side, the NBP spot price seems to fluctuate more normally than the HH price in the short term, which can give a certain advantage to NBP prices. 3. We cannot exclude the fact that in the coming years we will have two or even more reference prices in the Atlantic Basin:","PeriodicalId":103205,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: OPEC Energy Review","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2005-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132798065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Oil Price Fluctuations and the Nigerian Economy","authors":"O. Ayadi","doi":"10.1111/J.0277-0180.2005.00151.X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/J.0277-0180.2005.00151.X","url":null,"abstract":"The single most important issue confronting a growing number of world economies today is the price of oil and its attendant consequences on economic output. Several studies have taken the approach of Hamilton (1983) in investigating the effect of oil price shocks on levels of gross domestic product. The focus of this paper is primarily on the relationship between oil price changes and economic development via industrial production. A vector auto regression model is employed on some macroeconomic variables from 1980 through 2004. The results indicate that oil price changes affect real exchange rates, which, in turn, affect industrial production. However, this indirect effect of oil prices on industrial production is not statistically significant. Therefore, the implication of the results presented in this paper is that an increase in oil prices does not lead to an increase in industrial production in Nigeria.","PeriodicalId":103205,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: OPEC Energy Review","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2005-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120959252","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}