Banque de France Research Paper Series最新文献

{"title":"Associating MFIs with SMEs to Assist Post Pandemic Economic Resilience in Bangladesh","authors":"Md. Aminul Karim, T. Tanisa, K. Sakib","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3659434","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3659434","url":null,"abstract":"Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) are one of the major sources of economic growth. Recent economic growth and development of Bangladesh have been highly linked with the flourishment of SMEs. Access to formal finance is one of the major impediments for the growth of SMEs. The recent economic slowdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic causes the SMEs to suffer to remain in the business. Supply chain disruption, unsold products, lack of product demand, liquidity crisis become more severe in this case. The government of Bangladesh is trying to help SMEs by providing funds through the banking sector but previous studies show the banking sector is not as effective for SME financing. Besides recent banking sector performance seems to be very poor. Therefore, to ensure the best use of funds we need an alternative channel. Mico-Finance Institutions (MFIs) can play a better role in this case. Several studies have shown microfinance was a successful tool to recover small businesses after natural disasters. This paper aims to address the role of microfinance to post-disaster SME financing and identifies the current gap between these two.","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"64 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114945744","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"La prévention du défaut de paiement des entreprises par les Etablissements de crédit Camerounais (Prevention of Corporate Default by Cameroonian Credit Institutions)","authors":"Professor Alain Ndedi, Jules Banaken","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3583516","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3583516","url":null,"abstract":"French Abstract: Le défaut de paiement désigne une entreprise qui n’est pas en mesure d’honorer ses paiements envers un tiers à la date d’échéance de la facture pour les marchandises délivrées ou des services rendus. La littérature sur le phénomène du défaut de paiement des entreprises bénéficiant des financements bancaires est presqu’inexistante, au profit d’une foisonnante littérature sur la faillite des entreprises, cette dernière étant essentiellement vue sous l’angle juridique. En effet, si pendant longtemps les chercheurs ont ignoré le phénomène du « défaut de paiement » des entreprises en le qualifiant d’effet de mode, donc marginale, pour faire la part belle à celui de la faillite, la réalité quotidienne nous replace devant les conséquences néfastes sur les banques et autres établissements de crédit, du défaut de paiement des entreprises : dépôts de bilan des banques, licenciements massifs, restructuration, interventions financières de l’Etat afin de limiter les effets systémiques. Le présent article aborde le sujet en se focalisant sur le contexte camerounais d’autant plus que plusieurs établissements de crédits au Cameroun ont été placés par le régulateur sous « administration provisoire » à cause de leurs actifs de crédits très sinistrés. Dans cette perspective, la question centrale de notre recherche consiste alors à se demander dans quelle mesure et avec quelle efficacité la modélisation du phénomène de « défaut de paiement » des entreprises peut répondre aux soucis permanents des banques camerounaises et contribuer par ricochet à la réduction du volume de leurs créances en souffrance. English Abstract: Failure to pay means a company that is unable to honor its payments to a third party by the due date of the invoice for the goods delivered or services rendered. The literature on the phenomenon of default of companies benefiting from bank financing is almost nonexistent, to the benefit of an abundant literature on business bankruptcy, the latter being mainly seen from the legal angle. Indeed, if for a long time researchers have ignored the phenomenon of corporate “default” by describing it as a fad, therefore marginal, to give pride of place to that of bankruptcy, everyday reality puts us back in front of the adverse consequences for banks and other credit institutions, corporate default: bankruptcy filing, mass layoffs, restructuring, state financial intervention to limit systemic effects. This article tackles the subject by focusing on the Cameroonian context, especially since several credit institutions in Cameroon have been placed by the regulator under \"provisional administration\" because of their very damaged credit assets. In this perspective, the central question of our research then consists in wondering to what extent and with what effectiveness the modeling of the phenomenon of “default of payment” of the companies can answer the permanent concerns of the Cameroonian banks and contribute by ricochet to the reduction of the","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129904741","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Aggregate Implications of Credit Relationship Flows: a Tale of Two Margins","authors":"Yasser Boualam, C. Mazet-Sonilhac","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3840196","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3840196","url":null,"abstract":"This paper documents the aggregate properties of credit relationship flows within the commercial loan market in France from 1998 through 2018. Using detailed bank-firm level data from the French Credit Register, we show that banks actively and continuously adjust their credit supply along both intensive and extensive margins. We particularly highlight the importance of gross flows associated with credit relationships and show that they are (i) volatile and pervasive throughout the cycle, and (ii) can account for up to 48 percent of the cyclical and 90 percent of the long-run variations in aggregate bank credit.","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133270967","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Financial Inclusion and Organic Farming Practices of Kuruchya Tribe in Wayanad: An Empirical Study","authors":"J. Varkey","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3536824","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3536824","url":null,"abstract":"Countries, developing as well as developed are emphasising environment sustainability of agricultural production, methods and practices. The traditional wisdom of farmers on indigenous agrarian practices increasingly being called into question owing to a host of factors. This paper tries to examine the impact of financial services especially institutional credit on the organic farming practices of tribes in Kerala. It uses primary data of 384 respondents from Kuruchya tribes in Wayanad district of Kerala. It found that the extension of formal credit is one of the chief determinants of organic farming. We observed that, majority of tribes, who have access to formal credit continue their traditional or organic farming practices. The tribes being dependent on informal/non institutional credit are mostly practicing inorganic farming methods. The determinants and predictors of organic farming differ from those of inorganic farming. In our country a large number of institutions and agencies are constituted to strengthen the credit delivery system, especially in the rural areas, but still they are not germane to meet the variety of financial needs of rural agriculture sector. This study therefore contains findings which will be helpful in formulating financial inclusion policies with more stress on credit delivery system to foster organic farming practices in rural India.","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"414 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134319765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Public Opinion on Central Banks when Economic Policy is Uncertain","authors":"Klodiana Istrefi, Anamaria Piloiu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3523345","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3523345","url":null,"abstract":"EnglishThis paper investigates whether uncertainty about economic policy plays a role in shaping the credibility and reputation of the central bank in the eyes of the general public. In particular, we look at the effect of policy uncertainty for the dynamics of citizens’ opinion, being trust, satisfaction or confidence, in the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. Estimating Bayesian VARs for the period 1999-2014, we find that shocks to economic policy uncertainty induce economic contractions and relatively sharp deterioration in trust or satisfaction measures, which in general take longer than economic growth to re-build. francaisCet article examine dans quelle mesure l’incertitude sur la politique economique joue un role preponderant quant a la credibilite et la reputation de la banque centrale aux yeux du grand public. En particulier, nous mesurons les effets de l’incertitude politique sur l’opinion des citoyens, qu’il s’agisse de confiance ou de satisfaction, vis-a-vis de la Banque Centrale Europeenne, la Banque d’Angleterre et la Banque du Japon. Pour ce faire, nous estimons un VAR bayesien pour plusieurs pays de la zone euro (Allemagne, France, Italie, et Espagne), le Royaume-Uni et le Japon sur la periode 1999-2014. Nous constatons que les chocs lies a l’incertitude des politiques economiques entrainent des contractions economiques et une deterioration relativement prononcee de nos mesures de confiance ou de satisfaction. Suite a un tel choc, ces dernieres prennent generalement plus de temps a se reconstruire que la croissance economique.","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"52 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131920119","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Wealth Effect on Consumption during the Sovereign Debt Crisis: Households Heterogeneity in the Euro Area","authors":"Bertrand Garbinti, P. Lamarche, Charlélie Lecanu, Frédérique Savignac","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3525995","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3525995","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the heterogeneity of the marginal propensity to consume out of wealth (MPC) both across and within countries. We estimate the MPC based on a cross-country harmonized household level dataset which combines surveys on wealth, income and consumption. We use panel regressions and an instrumental variable approach. First, our panel-based MPC estimates are very similar to those obtained on aggregate data and show substantial heterogeneity across countries. The wealth effect is coming both from housing and financial assets, while the main asset channel varies between countries. Second, the MPC is higher for low-wealth households, whatever the country. Third, we find some asymmetries across countries regarding the reaction to losses versus gains. Fourth, higher MPC is obtained for the two main consumption expenditure categories. Fifth, we find evidences that housing prices shock decreases consumption inequality while financial wealth shocks have a limited effect on consumption inequality. Classification-JEL: D12, E21, C21","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130266088","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Population Ageing and the Macroeconomy","authors":"Noemie Lisack, Rana Sajedi, Gregory Thwaites","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3511386","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3511386","url":null,"abstract":"We quantify the impact of demographic change on real interest rates, house prices and household debt in an overlapping-generations model. Falling birth and death rates across advanced economies can explain much of the observed fall in real interest rates and the rise in house prices and household debt. Since households maintain relatively high wealth levels throughout retirement, these trends will persist as population ageing continues. Countries ageing relatively slowly, like the US, will increasingly accumulate net foreign liabilities. The availability of housing as an alternative store of value attenuates these trends, while raising the retirement age has limited effects.","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130457676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Banks' Climate Commitments and Credit to Brown Industries: New Evidence for France","authors":"JEAN‐STÉPHANE Mésonnier","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3502681","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3502681","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, I investigate whether and how banks align green words with deeds in terms of credit allocation across more or less carbon-intensive industries in France. I use a rich dataset of bank credit exposures across some fifty industries and two size classes of borrowing firms for the main banking groups operating in France, which I merge with information on industries' greenhouse gas emission intensities and a score for banks' self-reported climate-related commitments over 2010-2017. I find evidence that higher levels of self-reported climate commitments by banks are associated with less lending to large corporates in the five brownest industries. However, lending to SMEs across more or less carbon-intensive industries remained unrelated to banks' commitments to green their business. Since SMEs are not required to report on their carbon emissions, while large firms are, these findings suggest that devising an appropriate carbon reporting framework for small firms is likely to enhance the decarbonization of bank lending.","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"472 1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115762869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bayesian VAR Forecasts, Survey Information and Structural Change in the Euro Area","authors":"G. Gánics, Florens Odendahl","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3474891","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3474891","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We incorporate external information extracted from the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters into the predictions of a Bayesian VAR using entropic tilting and soft conditioning. The resulting conditional forecasts significantly improve the plain BVAR point and density forecasts. Importantly, we do not restrict the forecasts at a specific quarterly horizon but their possible paths over several horizons jointly since the survey information comes in the form of one- and two-year-ahead expectations. As well as improving the accuracy of the variable that we target, the spillover effects on “other-than-targeted” variables are relevant in size and are statistically significant. We document that the baseline BVAR exhibits an upward bias for GDP growth after the financial crisis, and our results provide evidence that survey forecasts can help mitigate the effects of structural breaks on the forecasting performance of a popular macroeconometric model.","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"73 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121036157","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Are We Heading into a Recession? Yield Curve Inversion as a Recession Predictor","authors":"N. Burgess","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3448739","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3448739","url":null,"abstract":"Yield Curves reflect the borrowing and lending rates over a range of maturities within a particular market and currency. Yield curves capture the term structure of interest rates and provide observers with a means of comparing short- and long-term interest rates.<br><br>There are different types of yield curves, reflecting the different markets, institutions and instruments investors can choose to secure financing. Government Bond curves reflect the rate of return or yield required for governments to secure financing and likewise Swap Curves reflect the borrowing and lending rates available in Swap markets via interest rate swaps.<br><br>Current market yield curves are on the verge of inverting. The returns from long-term Government Bonds are lower than the equivalent short term bonds and borrowing money long-term is cheaper than short-term borrowing. This is unusual, typically long-term financing should cost more than short-term financing, not less.<br><br>In US markets inverted yield curves have been a reliable predictor of recessions. Each time the yield curve has inverted the US economy has entered a downturn within the subsequent 18 months. This has been the case with only one exception in the last 40 years. In this paper we review firstly what a yield curve is. Secondly we discuss the term structure of yields and interest rates and thirdly we outline the yield spread and explain why an inverted yield curve is a good recession predictor and indicator of heightened recessionary risk.<br><br>Finally we conclude with an estimate of the likelihood of a US recession in the next 12 months based on current market information.","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"56 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132218511","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}