Technological Forecasting最新文献_第4页

Excerpt from press conference of Dr. Daniel P. Moynihan, assistant to the president for urban affairs, July 11, 1969 摘自1969年7月11日总统城市事务助理丹尼尔·p·莫伊尼汉博士的新闻发布会

Technological Forecasting Pub Date : 1969-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/0099-3964(69)90022-2

引用次数: 0

Technological forecasting and long-range planning 技术预测和长期规划

Technological Forecasting Pub Date : 1969-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/0099-3964(69)90025-8

Harold A. Linstoni

引用次数: 2

Future electric automobiles 未来的电动汽车

Technological Forecasting Pub Date : 1969-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/0099-3964(69)90018-0

Principal Engineer George A. Hoffman (Scientist)

引用次数: 3

Forecasting international relations: A proposed investigation of three-mode factor analysis 预测国际关系:三模式因子分析的初步探讨

Technological Forecasting Pub Date : 1969-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/0099-3964(69)90020-9

Professor R.J. Rummel (Director)

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引用次数: 6

Reducing lead-time through improved technological forecasting: Some specific suggestions for more usefully formulated projections of technological availability 通过改进技术预测来缩短交货时间:对技术可用性进行更有效的预测的一些具体建议

Technological Forecasting Pub Date : 1969-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/0099-3964(69)90015-5

David Novick , Frederick S. Pardee (Head)

引用次数: 3

A nondemographic factor V/STOL prediction model 非人口统计学因素V/STOL预测模型

Technological Forecasting Pub Date : 1969-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/0099-3964(69)90017-9

Alexis N. Sommers (Transportation Systems Analyst) , Ferdinand F. Leimkuhler (Chairman)

引用次数: 4

Exploratory and normative technological forecasting: A critical appraisal 探索性和规范性技术预测:批判性评价

Technological Forecasting Pub Date : 1969-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/0099-3964(69)90013-1

Edward B. Roberts (Associate Professor)

{"title":"Exploratory and normative technological forecasting: A critical appraisal","authors":"Edward B. Roberts (Associate Professor)","doi":"10.1016/0099-3964(69)90013-1","DOIUrl":"10.1016/0099-3964(69)90013-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Comparison of the still evolving approaches to “exploratory” and “normative” technological forecasting yields marked contrasts. In particular the simple schemes used by those trying to <em>predict</em> the technology of the future look pallid when matched against the intricate techniques designed by those who are allocating the resources that will <em>create</em> the future. Exploratory technological forecasts are largely based either on aggregates of “genius” forecasts (e.g., the Delphi technique) or on the use of leading indicators and other simple trend-line approaches. The practitioners of economic forecasting, in contrast, long ago recognized the need for multivariate systems analysis and cause-effect models to develop reliable predictions.</p><p>So-called “normative” forecasting is at the opposite extreme on the sophistication scale, fully utilizing Bayesian statistics, linear and dynamic programming, and other operations research tools. Here, despite the uniqueness, uncertainty, and lack of uniformity of research and development activities, the typical designer of a normative technique has proposed a single-format wholly quantitative method for resource allocation. Along the dimensions of unjustified standardization and needless complexity, for example, the proposed R & D allocation methods far exceed the general cost-effectiveness approach used by the Department of Defense in its program and system reviews.</p><p>For both exploratory and normative purposes, dynamic models of broad technological areas seem worthy of further pursuit. In attempting to develop “pure predictions” the explicit recognition of causal mechanisms offered by this modeling approach seems highly desirable. This feature also has normative utility, provided that the dynamic models are limited in their application to the level of aggregate technological resource allocation and are not carried down to the level of detailed R & D project funding.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101211,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting","volume":"1 2","pages":"Pages 113-127"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1969-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/0099-3964(69)90013-1","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"101322005","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 27

Balanced grand-scale forecasting 平衡的大规模预测

Technological Forecasting Pub Date : 1969-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/0099-3964(69)90023-4

R.P. Buschmann

引用次数: 6

Producing the first navy technological forecast 制作第一份海军技术预报

Technological Forecasting Pub Date : 1969-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/0099-3964(69)90019-2

M.J. Cetron (Head) , D.N. Dick

{"title":"Producing the first navy technological forecast","authors":"M.J. Cetron (Head) , D.N. Dick","doi":"10.1016/0099-3964(69)90019-2","DOIUrl":"10.1016/0099-3964(69)90019-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>During 1968 the Navy prepared and published its first technological forecast. The Navy effort involved sixteen major Laboratory/Centers and eight Systems Commands. The forecasts range from functional technologies to systems options and the overall effort is comprised of approximately five hundred individual forecasts. It was implemented, prepared, and published in seven months and it is estimated the overall forecasting task cost approximately $1.9 million. The implementation of such a task, requiring the efforts of a large number of activities in a relatively new field over a short period of time represented a challenge to all involved. We would like to share with you the experiences gained in this task—producing the first Navy Technological Forecast (NTF).</p><p>We should start by acknowledging the assistance gained from those who formally prepared forecasts some time ago, notably the Air Force and Army. Although the Navy waited until 1968 to prepare a Navy-wide forecast, several years were spent studying other forecasts for the considerations of methodology, structures, and overall approaches. The end result of this study is contained in <em>A Proposal for a Navy Technological Forecast</em>, <em>Part II—Backup Report</em><sup>1</sup> which has, and still does, serve as the bible for the NTF as well as a good introduction to the subject of technological forecasting.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101211,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting","volume":"1 2","pages":"Pages 185-195"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1969-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/0099-3964(69)90019-2","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75813247","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

The unprepared society: Planning for a prevarious future 未雨绸缪的社会:未雨绸缪的未来

Technological Forecasting Pub Date : 1969-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/0099-3964(69)90024-6

Erich Jantsch

引用次数: 1