Natural Hazards Research最新文献

{"title":"Spatiotemporal variation of potential evapotranspiration and meteorological drought based on multi-source data in Nepal","authors":"Wenlei Dai ,&nbsp;Rajan Subedi ,&nbsp;Kailun Jin ,&nbsp;Lu Hao","doi":"10.1016/j.nhres.2023.04.007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nhres.2023.04.007","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Quantifying the spatiotemporal dynamic of potential evapotranspiration (PET) in topographically complex country are often limited by the scarcity and difficulty in obtaining ground-based measured climate data. Remote sensing products have multiple advantage, which allows rapid acquisition of information and status over large areas and long time series. This study compared and explored the spatiotemporal variation of PET across Nepal using three widely-used remote sensing and reanalysis data PET products (CRU_PET, MODIS_PET and PML_PET), and PET estimation using Hargreaves-Samani method based on CHIRTS datasets. On the basis of this, the spatiotemporal dynamic at seasonal and annual level and the periodical change of PET and meteorological aridity index AI (precipitation P/PET) were identified using Mann-Kendall test and Morlet Wavelet method. These PET products showed general spatial consistency over most areas in Nepal with higher PET in the south and less in the north. However, great differences were also found in PET values for four different products. Compared with the three remote sensing and reanalysis data products, CHIRTS_PET performs better in Nepal. The AI based on CHIRTS_PET showed an insignificant increasing (wetting) trend in the western and southern regions, while an insignificant decreasing (drying) trend in the central and northeastern region, which is generally consistent with the spatial pattern of precipitation. In the western and southern regions, the positive impact of increasing precipitation on AI masked the negative effect of increasing PET, and thus making this region getting humid. However, in the central and northeastern region, the increase in PET aggravates the impact of reduced precipitation on the drying trend. Our investigation have broad implications for sustainable water resources management under climate change in a topographically complex country like Nepal.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100943,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards Research","volume":"3 2","pages":"Pages 271-279"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50189901","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Geoenvironmental GIS development to investigate Landslides and Slope Instability along Frontal zone of Central Himalaya","authors":"Pradeep Kumar Rawat,&nbsp;Bhawana Pant","doi":"10.1016/j.nhres.2023.03.005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nhres.2023.03.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Frontal Himalayan terrain comprises of Lesser Himalaya and Siwalik Hills; is highly susceptible to landslide disaster due to active tectonics, scrappy geology, steep slope, and reshaping geomorphology. Besides that, hydrological impacts of land use degradation and climate change enhancing the vulnerability of the terrain. Keep in view this; the Dabka watershed, falls in frontal zone of central Himalaya has been selected for case illustration. Geospatial analysis advocates that the areas of the most stressed geo-environment (comprises of very steep slopes above 30°, geology of Lower Krol and Lariakanta formation, geomorphology of moist areas and debris sites and land use of barren land) have high density (5–10 landsides km²) of landslides whereas the areas of least stressed geo-environment (comprises of gentle slopes below 10°, geology of Kailakhan and Siwalik formation, geomorphology of depositional terraces and land use of dense forest) have low density of landslides (2 landsides km²). Out of total 340 landslides in the region, 198 are active landsides whereas 51 and 91 are reactivated and old landsides respectively. Geospatial analysis of landslide areas reveals that across the region total 804.33 ​ha land has been degraded by landslides which account for 11.65% of the total area of the Dabka watershed. The wedge failure analysis suggests that there are 3–4 sets of rock joints across the region and most of the sites are unsafe as their safety factors are less than 1.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100943,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards Research","volume":"3 2","pages":"Pages 196-204"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50190616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mid-late holocene accretional history of low-lying, coral-reef rim islets, South-Marutea Atoll, Tuamotu, central South Pacific: The key role of marine hazard events","authors":"Lucien F. Montaggioni ,&nbsp;Bernard Salvat ,&nbsp;Edwige Pons-Branchu ,&nbsp;Arnaud Dapoigny ,&nbsp;Bertrand Martin-Garin ,&nbsp;Gilbert Poli ,&nbsp;Jean-Marc Zanini ,&nbsp;Robert Wan","doi":"10.1016/j.nhres.2023.02.004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nhres.2023.02.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>South-Marutea Atoll is located in the Gambier Island Group, at the south-eastern end of the Tuamotu Archipelago, French Polynesia, central South Pacific. Understanding the modalities of islet building from low-lying atolls over the mid to late Holocene, in relation to sea-level changes and cycles of marine hazard events, is a prerequisite for better anticipate future geomorphic changes to which the islets will likely be faced in the next decades under global climate warming. Herein is presented the depositional history of two selected atoll islets, based on chronostratigraphic analysis of sedimentary, coral-dominated sequences from six excavations. Identified as Motu Aramu and Motu Vainono, these islets are located respectively in north-north-east and due south of the atoll rim. Additional surficial sampling was conducted on modern ocean-facing shingle ridges, respectively on north-north-west (Motu Oire), west (Motu Aranui) and east (Motu Tekava) rim areas, in order to date the latest ridge-emplacement stages. Oire and Aranui sites, located along the leeward atoll sites, are protected from trade winds, Aramu, Vainono and Tekava are located on the windward sides, directly exposed to northeasterly and southeasterly storm swells respectively. A total of 88 coral clasts were collected to be U/Th dated. The excavated sequences range between 2.50 ​m and 0.90 ​m in thickness, from the outer islet sides lagoonwards. Five lithofacies, including two subfacies, were recognized based on texture and biological composition: a coral boulder-cobble-dominated, a coral pebble-dominated – pebble-supported and sand-supported subfacies – and a foraminifera-rich, sand-dominated and an organic-rich, pebble to sand facies. These facies tend to be distributed from ocean sides landwards according to a decreasing grain-size gradient. A model of atoll-island accretion emerges in relation with changes in frequency and intensity of marine hazard events. The islet foundations consist of conglomerate platforms, locally up to 1.0 ​m thick, deposited from about 5,000 to 1,000 ​calendar year (cal yr) BP. Islets began to accrete from 5,000 ​yr cal BP. While at Motu Vainono, islet building occurred continuously over the last 5,000 years, at Motu Aramu, there is an apparent non-depositional episode, from 4,000 to 2,000 ​yr cal BP, interpreted as caused by a marked decreased in <span>enso</span>-related cyclone activity. The outer shingle ridges in all studied sites were regularly reshaped during the last millennium. During the last 5,000 years, the major accretion-islet episodes occurred irrespective of the course of sea level, indicating that sea-level change was not a driver of islet accretion. Periodical, marine high-energy events clearly appear to be the key controls of islet shaping. Shifts of cyclone source areas further south and increasing cyclone intensity, but lower frequency, due to enhanced <span>enso</span> variability throughout the 21st century, is postulated t","PeriodicalId":100943,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards Research","volume":"3 2","pages":"Pages 219-239"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50190620","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Human factors vs climate change; experts’ view of drivers of flooding in Nigeria","authors":"Adaku Jane Echendu","doi":"10.1016/j.nhres.2023.04.002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nhres.2023.04.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Flooding disasters are occurring more frequently across the globe. Resilience capacity also differs with developing countries less able to withstand the devastating impacts of flooding. The level and type of action to prevent or mitigate flooding is dependent on the prevalent views on its principal drivers. This research engages with experts in the field of flood risk management in Nigeria, Africa's most populous country where the threats and frequency of flooding has increased over the years. An in-depth qualitative case study was conducted with semi-structured interviews used as the primary data collection tool. Understanding and distinguishing the core drivers of flooding according to context is pertinent because in a situation where the drivers are deemed to be factors beyond human control, there is risk of little action. The experts in this research acknowledged the influence of climate change on flooding which has led to increase in rainfall intensity, frequency and duration. However, they attributed the flooding being experienced in the research location to be due to more controllable human factors including lack of infrastructure, poor urban planning and governance, and weak implementation and enforcement of laws and policies. A mix of structural and non-structural solutions were recommended to better manage flooding and achieve the goal of sustainable cities and settlements.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100943,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards Research","volume":"3 2","pages":"Pages 240-246"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50190621","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evidence-based disaster risk assessment in Southeast Asian countries","authors":"Tadashi Nakasu,&nbsp;Chutaporn Amrapala","doi":"10.1016/j.nhres.2023.04.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nhres.2023.04.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper aims to provide an overview of the risks and trends of natural disasters in Southeast Asian countries and discuss necessary future countermeasures. Quantitative analysis of natural disasters was performed using data collected from EM-DAT. The disaster risk assessment for countries and disaster types was conducted using a frequency-impact risk matrix and risk ranking identification, which is a novel approach based on actual disaster data. The findings suggest that Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand face the highest mortality, affected population, and economic damage risks, respectively. Moreover, the study reveals that Southeast Asian countries are vulnerable to climate-related disasters. This risk assessment gives us a comprehensive understanding of natural disaster risks in Southeast Asian countries, enabling us to identify the most vulnerable countries in the region and determine the most significant disaster-type countermeasures for each country.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100943,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards Research","volume":"3 2","pages":"Pages 295-304"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50190624","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analysis of Qiaojia earthquake disasters in the Zhaotong area: Reasons for “small earthquakes and major disasters”","authors":"Wei Wang ,&nbsp;Hong Chen ,&nbsp;Lisiwen Ma ,&nbsp;Yiting Xu ,&nbsp;Minhao Qu","doi":"10.1016/j.nhres.2023.03.002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nhres.2023.03.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In May 2020, a magnitude 5.0 earthquake occurred in Qiaojia County, Yunnan. This earthquake was characteristics of relatively common “small earthquakes and major disasters” in the Zhaotong area of northeastern Yunnan. Yunnan province is an area in China with a high incidence of moderately strong earthquakes with magnitude 5 or above. In this region, the unique geological structure background and geographical environment of the Zhaotong area make it the most severely damaged area not only in Yunnan but also in all of China. The geological structure of the Zhaotong area is complex, and the neotectonic movements are strong. Based on the disasters of 8 moderate and strong earthquakes in Zhaotong since 2000, this paper analyses the causes of the “small earthquakes and major disasters” in Zhaotong city and provides suggestions for disaster reduction and emergency response after an earthquake.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100943,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards Research","volume":"3 2","pages":"Pages 139-145"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50190650","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Relationships between COVID-19 and disaster risk in Costa Rican municipalities","authors":"Adolfo Quesada-Román ,&nbsp;Dennis Pérez-Umaña ,&nbsp;Alice Brenes-Maykall","doi":"10.1016/j.nhres.2023.02.002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nhres.2023.02.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The COVID-19 pandemic has had far-reaching impacts on every aspect of human life since the first confirmed case in December 2019. Costa Rica reported its first case of COVID-19 in March 2020, coinciding with a notable correlation between the occurrence of disaster events at the municipal scale over the past five decades. In Costa Rica, over 90% of disasters are hydrometeorological in nature, while geological disasters have caused significant economic and human losses throughout the country's history. To analyze the relationship between COVID-19 cases and disaster events in Costa Rica, two Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) were used to statistically evaluate the influence of socio-environmental parameters such as population density, social development index, road density, and non-forested areas. The results showed that population and road density are the most critical factors in explaining the spread of COVID-19, while population density and social development index can provide insights into disaster events at the municipal level in Costa Rica. This study provides valuable information for understanding municipal vulnerability and exposure to disasters in Costa Rica and can serve as a model for other countries to assess disaster risk.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100943,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards Research","volume":"3 2","pages":"Pages 336-343"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50189898","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Landslide susceptibility evaluation and interpretability analysis of typical loess areas based on deep learning","authors":"Lili Chang ,&nbsp;Gulian Xing ,&nbsp;Hui Yin ,&nbsp;Lei Fan ,&nbsp;Rui Zhang ,&nbsp;Nan Zhao ,&nbsp;Fei Huang ,&nbsp;Juan Ma","doi":"10.1016/j.nhres.2023.02.005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nhres.2023.02.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Loess areas have a unique geological environment, and geological disasters occur there frequently. In this work, the typical loess area Lvliang was used as the study area. Using the historical landslide catalog, 12 influencing factors were chosen by integrating multisource heterogeneous spatiotemporal big data such as remote sensing, ground investigation, and basic geography. Based on frequency ratio (FR) and improved TabNet deep learning technology, landslide susceptibility evaluation and uncertainty analysis were performed. The results showed that the TabNet evaluation model using FR and self-supervised learning performs well and has the highest FR in extremely high-prone areas. Compared with other methods, this method has the highest scores in areas under the curve and susceptibility index distribution and the lowest uncertainty. Moreover, the SHAP method was used for interpretability analysis of the model. Therefore, this study can provide new ideas for landslide susceptibility management.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100943,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards Research","volume":"3 2","pages":"Pages 155-169"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50190615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Landslide susceptibility and risk analysis in Benighat Rural Municipality, Dhading, Nepal","authors":"Ganesh Dhungana ,&nbsp;Romi Ghimire ,&nbsp;Ranjan Poudel ,&nbsp;Sujan Kumal","doi":"10.1016/j.nhres.2023.03.006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nhres.2023.03.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The complex geology and undulating terrain made Nepal vulnerable to natural disasters like landslides. Benighat-Rorang Rural Municipality (RM), in the Dhading district of Nepal's Bagmati province, has experienced several minor to massive landslides that have harmed both nature and civilization. This study examines the factors influencing landslides in the Benighat-Rorang RM by analyzing soil structure, geology, land cover, geomorphology (primarily slopes and aspects), fault lines, drainage density, weather data, and road density to generate a comprehensive Landslide Susceptibility Mapping (LSM). The LSM will help in identifying landslide-prone zones (high to low), which will, in turn, enable stakeholders to implement appropriate mitigation measures across the landslide-induced rural municipality. The current study intends to create Landslide susceptibility zonation mapping within and around the studied area by applying the AHP method while taking into account the optimal set of geo-environmental parameters to identify regions at risk of future landslides. Elevation, Slope, Aspect, Drainage, Geology, Soil Classes, Fault Line, Lineaments, Land-cover, Road Networks, Population, and climatic parameters (Rainfall, Temperature, Relative Humidity, Surface Pressure, and Wind Speed) are among the fourteen geo-environmental elements used for this research. Using the field verification approach, the results of this procedure have been validated, which can be observed in an estimated success rate curve. Meteorological factors, such as temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, surface pressure, and wind speed, have been examined regarding landslide susceptibility. Thus, an integrated assessment of landslide susceptibility was applied to the area to identify inhabited areas vulnerable to or at risk of landslides. Furthermore, the placement of public amenities throughout the research zone was considered while conducting the social vulnerability risk analysis. Finally, landslide susceptibility zonation, climatic factors influencing landslide susceptibility, and social vulnerability assessment results of the study area have been combined to generate a risk map identifying landslide-prone municipal facilities and vulnerable communities. This study will help in building resilient landslide communities through effective spatial urban planning that incorporates regional risks induced by landslides with infrastructure development and management strategies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100943,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards Research","volume":"3 2","pages":"Pages 170-185"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50190617","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Meeting information needs in a natural hazard: Development of crisis information needs and adequacy for internal stakeholders (CINA-IS) scale","authors":"Ryan P. Fuller ,&nbsp;Amy Mickel ,&nbsp;Laura Riolli ,&nbsp;Andrew Pyle","doi":"10.1016/j.nhres.2023.04.008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nhres.2023.04.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Natural-hazard crises generate much uncertainty among individuals, organizations, and communities. As feelings of uncertainty grow, individuals experience higher levels of stress and negative impacts to their psychological well-being. People desperately seek information and guidance on what to do and expect, along with how to adapt when faced with crises. While crisis-response organizations are key information disseminators, individuals also seek information from non-crisis-response organizations such as places where they work, volunteer, attend school, or worship. As the frequency of natural-hazard crises increases, so do the expectations of non-crisis-response organizations as valuable information sources.</p><p>However, there is limited research on the information needs of internal stakeholders and the adequacy of the information provided. In this paper, a new reliable and valid scale, <em>Crisis Information Needs and Adequacy for Internal Stakeholders (CINA-IS)</em> is introduced. Three studies to develop and test this scale are described in detail. This 6-item, one-factor scale can be used to assess the adequacy of the information provided during a crisis from the perspective of internal stakeholders. Organizations and those who study them are encouraged to use this scale to improve internal crisis communication. Adequately meeting internal stakeholders' information needs has the potential to help reduce uncertainty and negative psychological impacts on an organizations’ most important asset – its people.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100943,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards Research","volume":"3 2","pages":"Pages 305-312"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"50190625","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}