Natural Hazards Research最新文献

{"title":"Strengthen hazards risk management and improve the comprehensive prevention ability of compound and chained natural hazards: Speech from professor Guoguang Zheng at the 2023 annual academic conference of the committee on earthquake hazard chain, Seismological society of China","authors":"Guoguang Zheng","doi":"10.1016/j.nhres.2023.12.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nhres.2023.12.004","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":100943,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards Research","volume":"3 4","pages":"Pages 653-654"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139015047","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Report on the 2023 Annual Academic Conference of the Committee on Earthquake Hazard Chain, Seismological Society of China, 23–24 October 2023, Beijing, China","authors":"Zhaoning Chen,&nbsp;Yuandong Huang,&nbsp;Zhiwen Xue,&nbsp;Tao Li,&nbsp;Jingjing Sun,&nbsp;Qinxia Wang,&nbsp;Chong Xu,&nbsp;Wei Wang,&nbsp;Wenwen Qi,&nbsp;Xiangli He,&nbsp;Huiran Gao,&nbsp;Zikang Xiao,&nbsp;Xiaoyi Shao,&nbsp;Xiwei Xu,&nbsp;Jian Chen,&nbsp;Bin Zhang,&nbsp;Ruichen Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.nhres.2023.12.009","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nhres.2023.12.009","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The 2023 Annual Academic Conference of the Committee on Earthquake Hazard Chain, Seismological Society of China was held on 23–24 October 2023 in Beijing, China, with the theme of theoretical research, technological applications, and popular science publicity in disaster prevention, mitigation, and relief of the earthquake disaster chain. The academic conference consisted of opening ceremony, keynote lectures, academic lectures and closing ceremony, with 118 speeches or lectures. The content involves many aspects of the earthquake disaster chain, such as prediction methods, formation mechanism, identification, monitoring and early warning, post-disaster rescue and reconstruction, and disaster prevention measures. This activity was oriented to the major needs of disaster prevention, mitigation, and relief in the earthquake disaster chain, set up a platform for the exchange of academic achievements and experiences, and promoted in-depth exchanges and cooperation and discussion among researchers in the fields related to earthquake disaster chain in the fields of scientific and technological research, operational support, and public services. In the future, more attention should be paid to earthquake prediction, the formation and evolution mechanism, the risk assessment, and the long-term effect of earthquake disaster chain.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100943,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards Research","volume":"3 4","pages":"Pages 646-652"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139016641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The magnitude 6.1 earthquake at the border between China and Kazakhstan on December 1st, 2003, and its seismic damage characteristics","authors":"Lijun Song ,&nbsp;Jun Shen ,&nbsp;Lihua Tang ,&nbsp;Weihua Hu ,&nbsp;Na Lu ,&nbsp;Xiaohong Nie","doi":"10.1016/j.nhres.2023.08.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nhres.2023.08.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The magnitude 6.1 earthquake that occurred on December 1, 2003, at the border between China and Kazakhstan marked the first significant earthquake in the central Tianshan region of this century. This study presents an on-site investigation of this earthquake, including assessment of house damage and surface deformation, with a specific focus on the destructive impact on different types of houses. The Isoseismal map of the earthquake was drawn based on the survey data in China and the survey results of Kazakhstan's counterparts abroad. We also analyzed the tectonic structure of this earthquake based on geological data. The earthquake sequence's focal mechanism and characteristics were analyzed based on the seismic records. This study provides a comprehensive introduction to the main features of this earthquake and its disasters, which has important reference value for understanding the destructive effects of such earthquakes. Furthermore, it also sheds light on the emergency response work of Chinese earthquake workers during such earthquakes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100943,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards Research","volume":"3 4","pages":"Pages 632-639"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81861984","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimating seismic vulnerability in West Bengal by AHP-WSM and AHP-VIKOR","authors":"Sukanta Malakar,&nbsp;Abhishek K. Rai","doi":"10.1016/j.nhres.2023.06.001","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nhres.2023.06.001","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>West Bengal is situated primarily in the Surma Valley at the foothills of the Himalayas and near the western foreland of the Assam-Arakan Orogenic Belt. Several low to moderate-magnitude earthquakes are felt in the region frequently. In this study, we use integrated multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) models to assess the seismic vulnerability in West Bengal. Twenty-four parameters that were susceptible to seismicity in the region have been used to evaluate geotechnical, structural, social, and physical vulnerability. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) model was used to estimate the priorities of the parameters, which was then used to estimate seismic vulnerability using the VIseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) and the weighted sum method (WSM). The results reveal that approximately ∼17.81% of the total area and ∼65.36% population may fall under a high to very high-vulnerable zone, causing concerns for planning and disaster mitigation. The receiver operating characteristic curve estimated to validate the results, indicate that the AHP-VIKOR performs better for seismic vulnerability estimation. The results of this study may help various mitigation and planning agencies in identifying earthquake-vulnerable zones and preparing in advance for any potential large magnitude earthquakes that may occur in the region.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100943,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards Research","volume":"3 3","pages":"Pages 464-473"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666592123000616/pdfft?md5=c52467e8d6fbef2070395b5cb644240d&pid=1-s2.0-S2666592123000616-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73718399","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Application of ChatGPT in natural disaster prevention and reduction","authors":"Zhiwen Xue ,&nbsp;Chong Xu ,&nbsp;Xiwei Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.nhres.2023.07.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nhres.2023.07.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Improving disaster prevention, reduction, and emergency response capabilities is crucial in a country prone to frequent natural disasters. Since the release of ChatGPT, it has garnered widespread attention and sparked extensive discussions in various fields due to its powerful language processing and reasoning abilities. This paper explores the application of ChatGPT in natural disaster prevention and reduction, building upon its language capabilities. The paper examines ChatGPT's ability to gather information and its potential for disaster prevention science popularization and education. It describes the rapid response and availability of ChatGPT in natural disaster prevention and highlights its potential to assist emergency response efforts. The paper also outlines ChatGPT's assistance in the pre-disaster, during-disaster, and post-disaster phases. Additionally, it points out the current limitations and challenges in applying ChatGPT and provides prospects for future research directions in natural disaster prevention and reduction.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100943,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards Research","volume":"3 3","pages":"Pages 556-562"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666592123000744/pdfft?md5=6d94d99549c8f23ba8cba161ac6b469e&pid=1-s2.0-S2666592123000744-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77400495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Community resilience to natural disasters: A systemic review of contemporary methods and theories","authors":"Md Ohidur Zaman ,&nbsp;Mohammad Mojammel Hussain Raihan","doi":"10.1016/j.nhres.2023.05.003","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nhres.2023.05.003","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Due to global climate change, community resilience to natural disasters has become a high priority in environmental research. Academicians and practitioners from different disciplines and organizations include several dimensions to outline the process of building resilient communities. Although this research branch suffers from the lack of a shared theoretical and methodological consensus, many scholars publish research articles each year. Similarly, social scientists include diverse contextual humanitarian dimensions that are challenging to trace. Therefore, this study attempts to undertake a systematic review of the literature of the last 12 years (2010–2021) to outline the current trends in research methods, selected dimensions, and theoretical standpoints from the social perspective. This systematic observation of the literature identifies the recent trends in adopting research design, sampling design, and data collection techniques used for the research. The present review also traces the propensity of including major theoretical dimensions in the research. After identifying the contemporary trends in research, we find that a comprehensive multi-phase research model is necessary to initiate an effective policymaking in a specific socio-ecological context.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100943,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards Research","volume":"3 3","pages":"Pages 583-594"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666592123000501/pdfft?md5=0f1b63c8b393fc838320d9901e87e04d&pid=1-s2.0-S2666592123000501-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77059477","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Geological evidence of predecessor of the 2018 Tsunami in Palu, Sulawesi, Indonesia","authors":"Purna Sulastya Putra ,&nbsp;Eko Yulianto ,&nbsp;Widjo Kongko ,&nbsp;Septriono Hari Nugroho ,&nbsp;Virga Hydra Sahara ,&nbsp;Aswan Aswan ,&nbsp;Khoiril Anwar Maryunani","doi":"10.1016/j.nhres.2023.04.010","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nhres.2023.04.010","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Following the 2018 Palu tsunami event in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, the geological evidence of paleotsunami in Palu, was investigated to extend the historical record of past tsunamis in this area. A geological survey was conducted in Talise Beach, Palu City, at the southern end of Palu Bay. The stratigraphy sequence from the outcrop profile in Talise Beach showed three clear paleotsunamis. These paleotsunamis are distributed widely and can be traced along 1 ​km parallel to the beach, and each layer is characterized by poorly sorted sand deposited on the paleosoil. The boundary between the sand layers and paleosoils is sharp and erosional. The sedimentological and foraminifera analyses support the identification of paleotsunamis. Based on the radiocarbon dating, it was interpreted that these three paleotsunamis occurred in the 17th, 18th, and 19th century. This first paleotsunami study in Palu, not only provided geological evidence of paleotsunamis, and extended the tsunami record in Palu, but also served as an essential start for tsunami geology study in Palu as the tsunami sources in this area are complex.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100943,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards Research","volume":"3 3","pages":"Pages 487-493"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666592123000471/pdfft?md5=7f7189b33b48758b1951028e869e9dab&pid=1-s2.0-S2666592123000471-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76088476","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessment of Mizoram, North East India","authors":"C. Lallawmawma,&nbsp;M.L. Sharma,&nbsp;J.D. Das","doi":"10.1016/j.nhres.2023.06.008","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nhres.2023.06.008","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper presents seismic hazard and risk assessment for the state of Mizoram based on a classical probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and event-based probabilistic seismic risk analysis. For the seismic hazard estimation, analysis has been performed considering the areal source model, fault zone polygon, and smoothed gridded seismicity model. The earthquake activity rates for these source zones and smoothed gridded seismicity sources are estimated from the homogenized and declustered earthquake catalogue. The logic tree framework is applied in the seismic source models and Ground Motion Prediction equations (GMPEs) to account for the epistemic uncertainties. Five Next-generation attenuation (NGA) GMPEs for the active shallow region and three GMPEs for the Indo-Burma subduction zone have been used to evaluate the hazard at the reference rock condition (Vs30 ​= ​760 ​m/s). Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and Spectral Acceleration (SA) at 0.2 s and 1s are estimated for each eight districts headquarters of Mizoram for a 2% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The hazard curves and Uniform Hazard Spectra (UHS) are also presented. For seismic risk analysis, building exposure data are based on digitized building footprint and 2011 Housing Census data of India. All the buildings are classified into three classes, and seismic vulnerability functions are assigned to each building class. The area per building class is assigned from the digitized footprint. Building replacement costs per square meter have been chosen based on expert input and values identified from past study. Lastly, the study conducted a seismic risk analysis using the Open Quake-engine's probabilistic event-based methodology to estimate risk metrics at the district level, such as average annual losses and probability curves for loss exceedance. The study's findings provide valuable insights into the most high-risk areas, the building construction types that are most vulnerable to seismic activity, and the anticipated economic losses in the state of Mizoram. These results can serve as a guide for local government authorities in developing future city plans and implementing earthquake risk mitigation strategies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100943,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards Research","volume":"3 3","pages":"Pages 447-463"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666592123000689/pdfft?md5=cd6a0eccf8c2df206f370241195890db&pid=1-s2.0-S2666592123000689-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77526883","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Flood emergency management in a municipality in the Czech Republic: A study of local strategies and leadership","authors":"Mohan Kumar Bera","doi":"10.1016/j.nhres.2023.06.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nhres.2023.06.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>After the fall of Communism in the Czech Republic, the centralised flood management was entrusted to a municipality. The new approach to disaster management in 1997 emphasised on emergency preparedness at the local level. The changing paradigms of emergency management and the changing rules and regulations of insurance companies have increased the responsibility of the local government to reduce the loss of property and save lives in villages. A qualitative method was used to explore a phenomenon in a bounded system and to understand the role and responsibilities of the municipality and the villagers' expectations. In addition, policy papers were examined to help understand the emergency planning of the municipality. The study found that successful emergency leadership is associated with adequate planning, appropriate strategies and effective implementation. The leaders must encourage subordinates and other individuals to participate actively in emergency management. It has been observed that the mayor created a ‘sense of urgency’ after assessing the prevailing institutional situation so that the plans to manage the emergency may be implemented immediately. The municipality also improves its disaster management strategies by identifying the causes of failure in the past, rectifying existing gaps, building confidence among villagers and preventing migration. It is not expected that all the stakeholders, staffs and elected members at the grassroots level engage in emergency management activities equally. However, leadership of a mayor can bind all the stakeholders to achieve a successful emergency management. They may not have adequate emergency management knowledge, but the sharing of knowledge through workshops and training programmes enhance their skills. The effective emergency management at the grassroots level not only requires collaborative strategies and human resource management, but also needs adequate management of funds. Because the local government can not always depend on voluntary participation and contribution, in which the mayor plays an important role.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100943,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards Research","volume":"3 3","pages":"Pages 385-394"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666592123000653/pdfft?md5=bf8945fc6328d4e2d866854e2fc62a20&pid=1-s2.0-S2666592123000653-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80996673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Application of index of entropy and Geospatial techniques for landslide prediction in Lunglei district, Mizoram, India","authors":"Jonmenjoy Barman ,&nbsp;Syed Sadath Ali ,&nbsp;Brototi Biswas ,&nbsp;Jayanta Das","doi":"10.1016/j.nhres.2023.06.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.nhres.2023.06.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The present study focuses on developing a landslide susceptibility zonation (LSZ) using GIS-based bivariate statistical model in the Lunglei district of Mizoram. Initially, 17 factors were selected after calculating the multicollinearity test for LSZ. A landslide inventory map was created based on 234 historic landslide events, which were randomly divided into training (70%) and testing (30%) datasets. Using the Index of Entropy (IOE) model, nine causative factors were identified as having significant weightage for LSZ: elevation, slope, aspect, curvature, normalized difference vegetation index, geomorphology, distance to road, distance to lineament, and distance to river. On the other hand, factors such as land use land cover, stream power index, terrain ruggedness index, terrain roughness, topographic wetness index, annual rainfall, topographic position index, and geology had negligible weightage. Based on the relative importance of the causative factors, two models were developed: scenario 1, which considered nine factors, and scenario 2, which considered all 17 factors. The results revealed that 16% and 14% of the district area were identified as very highly landslide prone in scenario 1 and scenario 2, respectively. The high susceptibility zone accounted for 26% and 25% of the area in scenario 1 and scenario 2, respectively. To assess the accuracy of the models, a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and quality sum ratio method was performed using 30% of the testing landslide data and an equal number of non-landslide data points. The area under the curve (AUC) for scenario 1 and scenario 2 were 0.947 and 0.922, respectively, indicating higher efficiency for scenario 1. The quality sum ratios were 0.435 and 0.43 for scenario 1 and scenario 2, respectively. Based on these results, the LSZ mapping from scenario 1 is considered suitable for policymakers to address development and risk reduction associated with landslides.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100943,"journal":{"name":"Natural Hazards Research","volume":"3 3","pages":"Pages 508-521"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666592123000665/pdfft?md5=0c49313c2adff5eb9718d69d54457a6a&pid=1-s2.0-S2666592123000665-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86446678","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}