Journal of Pipeline Science and Engineering最新文献_第10页

A robust hybrid predictive model of mixed oil length with deep integration of mechanism and data 一种机制与数据深度融合的混合油长度鲁棒混合预测模型

Journal of Pipeline Science and Engineering Pub Date : 2021-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpse.2021.12.002

Ziyun Yuan , Lei Chen , Weiming Shao , Zhiheng Zuo , Wan Zhang , Gang Liu

{"title":"A robust hybrid predictive model of mixed oil length with deep integration of mechanism and data","authors":"Ziyun Yuan , Lei Chen , Weiming Shao , Zhiheng Zuo , Wan Zhang , Gang Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.jpse.2021.12.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpse.2021.12.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Accurate estimation of mixed oil length is highly required in multi-product pipelines because it can guide the operator to correctly handle the mixed oil segment and effectively reduce the loss of petroleum product quality. In previous study, a hybrid model combined with machine learning algorithm with existing mechanism has been developed and has good predictive accuracy. Unfortunately, due to incorrect measurement and improper recording, outliers are widely present in industrial datasets and may render the predictive performance of the previous model quite disappointing, while the effect of outliers on predictive models for the mixed oil length is rarely discussed. In order to deal with such issues, this paper first proposes a way to define the outlier sample and explicitly studies its impact on the performance of the predictive model for mixed oil prediction. Subsequentially, various new hybrid modeling methods are developed driven by both operation data (exploited by the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree algorithm) and the mechanism (based on the Austin-Palfrey equation) in different arrangements. Extensive experiments are conducted on real-life transportation pipelines, and the results show that with the clean training set, the <em>R</em><sup>2</sup> index of the proposed serial-parallel hybrid model (SPHM) is 0.96, which is higher than that of mechanism model and the existing hybrid model. Even with all the outliers added, advantage in prediction accuracy of the SPHM is still noticed, demonstrating feasibility and robustness of the hybrid modeling approach for prediction of mixed oil length.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100824,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Pipeline Science and Engineering","volume":"1 4","pages":"Pages 459-467"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667143321000779/pdfft?md5=c4d650925b164e98595bef5a6aa818ad&pid=1-s2.0-S2667143321000779-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78320440","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 8

Stochastic Filter-based Fatigue Crack Growth Prediction for Pipelines considering Unknown Model Parameters and Measurement Uncertainty 考虑未知模型参数和测量不确定性的管道疲劳裂纹扩展随机滤波预测

Journal of Pipeline Science and Engineering Pub Date : 2021-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpse.2021.11.005

Durlabh Bartaula, S. Adeeb, Yong Li

引用次数: 1

Strength matching factor of pipeline girth weld designed by reliability method 用可靠性法设计管道环焊缝强度匹配系数

Journal of Pipeline Science and Engineering Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpse.2021.09.002

Kai Wu, Hong Zhang, Yue Yang, Xiaoben Liu

{"title":"Strength matching factor of pipeline girth weld designed by reliability method","authors":"Kai Wu, Hong Zhang, Yue Yang, Xiaoben Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.jpse.2021.09.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpse.2021.09.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Crack-like defects frequently form in pipes exposed to aggressive environments or during welding fabrication. Appropriate strength matching factors should be determined for welding process evaluation based on the reliability aspect. In this paper, the current research status of codes and standards related to the strength requirement of weld metals in the pipeline industry were reviewed. The results showed that almost all standards considered the lower limit of pipe tensile strength as a requirement for weld strength evaluation for specimens of cross-weld test breaking at the weld position. This was contradictory to the original intention of even-match or over-match of pipeline girth weld. The Monte Carlo Method was then employed to investigate the evolution of girth weld strength matching factor and pipeline failure probability under different high-low misalignments, fracture toughnesses, and standard deviations of pipe strength distribution. The data revealed significantly reduced probability of pipe failure as the weld metal strength matching factor increased. At the same strength matching factor, the failure probability of pipe decreased as fracture toughness of girth weld. The failure probability of pipe also declined as the misalignment and standard deviation of pipe strength distribution diminished. Based on the requirement of certain target reliability and strain demand, a semi-empirical prediction model of critical strength matching factor was proposed for engineering applications. The analysis of parameter sensitivity showed the relative importance of several parameters on the critical strength matching factor of girth weld, including high-low misalignment, standard deviation of pipe material strength distribution, and fracture toughness.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100824,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Pipeline Science and Engineering","volume":"1 3","pages":"Pages 298-307"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667143321000524/pdfft?md5=5e78e06414757f96f3f6a04be47c2a2e&pid=1-s2.0-S2667143321000524-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88319889","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 10

A probabilistic-based model for dynamic predicting pitting corrosion rate of pipeline under stray current interference 杂散电流干扰下管道点蚀速率动态预测的概率模型

Journal of Pipeline Science and Engineering Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpse.2021.09.003

Chengtao Wang, Wei Li, Yuqiao Wang

引用次数: 9

Cross-country pipeline inspection data analysis and testing of probabilistic degradation models 跨国管道检测数据分析及概率退化模型测试

Journal of Pipeline Science and Engineering Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpse.2021.09.004

Faisal Khan , Rioshar Yarveisy , Rouzbeh Abbassi

{"title":"Cross-country pipeline inspection data analysis and testing of probabilistic degradation models","authors":"Faisal Khan , Rioshar Yarveisy , Rouzbeh Abbassi","doi":"10.1016/j.jpse.2021.09.004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpse.2021.09.004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Pipelines are the most efficient and safest means for the transportation of oil, gas, and refined petroleum products. Potentially severe consequences of pipeline failures make reliability and risk assessment an essential aspect of safe operation. However, due to limited access to industrial data, reliability and risk assessment studies often rely on experimental, synthetic, or unreliable data, which often raises questions on the proposed method’s credibility. The authors had the opportunity to access a comprehensive dataset from consecutive inline inspection (ILI) runs reporting more than seven years of degradation due to external corrosion of more than 200 km of a cross-country pipeline. This paper presents a step-by-step data processing approach and detailed statistical analysis of a cross-country pipeline’s ILI data. The paper presents stochastic models and defines the parameters required for modeling time-dependent structural integrity and risk assessment, i.e., corrosion-induced failure probability, burst pressure assessment, and containment loss. The accompanying dataset and proposed models for stochastic progress of external corrosion are hoped to serve as an essential source for pipeline risk and reliability studies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100824,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Pipeline Science and Engineering","volume":"1 3","pages":"Pages 308-320"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667143321000548/pdfft?md5=48f68d5740b453cf27da038066e20bc9&pid=1-s2.0-S2667143321000548-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82038177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 10

General corrosion vulnerability assessment using a Bayesian belief network model incorporating experimental corrosion data for X60 pipe steel 基于贝叶斯信念网络模型的X60钢管腐蚀脆弱性综合评价

Journal of Pipeline Science and Engineering Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpse.2021.08.003

Solomon Tesfamariam , Haile Woldesellasse , Min Xu , Edouard Asselin

引用次数: 10

Research and application of natural gas pipeline assessment method in Location Class upgrading areas 位置等级提升地区天然气管道评价方法研究与应用

Journal of Pipeline Science and Engineering Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpse.2021.09.008

Yawei Zhou , Qiao Xu , Yazhe Zhou

引用次数: 5

Dynamic reliability model for subsea pipeline risk assessment due to third-party interference 第三方干扰下海底管道风险评估的动态可靠性模型

Journal of Pipeline Science and Engineering Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpse.2021.09.006

Reza Aulia, Henry Tan, Srinivas Sriramula

{"title":"Dynamic reliability model for subsea pipeline risk assessment due to third-party interference","authors":"Reza Aulia, Henry Tan, Srinivas Sriramula","doi":"10.1016/j.jpse.2021.09.006","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpse.2021.09.006","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The accidents of subsea pipelines due to third-party interference often result in catastrophic impacts, therefore, risk assessment has progressively become substantial to ensure the safety and reliability of the systems. However, the current risk analysis approaches are unable to minimize the uncertainties in the analysis due to the high demands of the qualitative inputs. The Bayesian network approach is believed to be able to provide answers to such a problem. The main advantage of this technique is that it allows the inference model and predictive analysis for constructing the current and future performance of the system based on the observed evidence. These can be achieved by introducing the subsea pipeline’s accident history and operational data in the model for developing the conditional probability distribution of each variable in the analysis. This paper proposes a dynamic reliability model for subsea pipeline risk assessment due to third-party interference based on the Bayesian approach. This technique is combined with fault tree and the finite element models for producing a reliable risk assessment framework for subsea pipelines. It is expected that the proposed model will be able to minimize the number of qualitative inputs in the analysis and also provides dynamic results for estimating the risk level of the subsea pipeline throughout its service life.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100824,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Pipeline Science and Engineering","volume":"1 3","pages":"Pages 277-289"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2667143321000561/pdfft?md5=f19f140038adcb55cc65253f7eeb921d&pid=1-s2.0-S2667143321000561-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81111294","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 9

An investigation of mitigating the safety and security risks allied with oil and gas pipeline projects 减轻油气管道项目安全与安保风险的研究:以伊拉克为例

Journal of Pipeline Science and Engineering Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpse.2021.08.002

Layth Kraidi, Raj Shah, Wilfred Matipa, Fiona Borthwick

{"title":"An investigation of mitigating the safety and security risks allied with oil and gas pipeline projects","authors":"Layth Kraidi, Raj Shah, Wilfred Matipa, Fiona Borthwick","doi":"10.1016/j.jpse.2021.08.002","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpse.2021.08.002","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Oil and Gas Pipeline (OGP) projects face a wide range of safety and security Risk Factors (RFs) globally, particularly in the oil and gas producing countries having insecure environment and poor safety records. Inadequate information about the causes of pipeline failures and poor knowledge about the safety and the security of the OGP hinder efforts of mitigating such risks. This paper, therefore, aims to develop a risk management system that is based on a holistic approach of identifying, analysing and ranking the associated RFs, and evaluating the possible Risk Mitigation Methods (RMMs), which are the first steps of this approach. A qualitative document analysis was adopted to design a semi-structured industry-wide questionnaire, which was conducted to collect stakeholders’ perceptions about existing RFs and RMMs for the OGP projects in Iraq. From the survey results, probability and severity levels of the RFs were used as inputs for a computer-based risk analysis model. The model used the fuzzy theory to judge the probability and consequence levels of the RFs and rank them with regards to their degree of impact in the projects. The results revealed that terrorism, official corruption and insecure areas are the most critical risks. Similarly, the RMMs were evaluated based on their degree of efficacy to mitigate the risk in OGP projects. This paper presents a prototype of the risk management system that will be further developed in the next stage of the study.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100824,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Pipeline Science and Engineering","volume":"1 3","pages":"Pages 349-359"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.jpse.2021.08.002","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86252337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 18

Offshore pipeline integrity assessment considering material and parametric uncertainty 考虑材料和参数不确定性的海上管道完整性评估

Journal of Pipeline Science and Engineering Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpse.2021.09.005

Sidum Adumene , Faisal Khan , Sunday Adedigba , Sohrab Zendehboudi , Hodjat Shiri

{"title":"Offshore pipeline integrity assessment considering material and parametric uncertainty","authors":"Sidum Adumene , Faisal Khan , Sunday Adedigba , Sohrab Zendehboudi , Hodjat Shiri","doi":"10.1016/j.jpse.2021.09.005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jpse.2021.09.005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper presents a methodology that integrates the semi-empirical corrosion models with probabilistic analysis to study steel structural failure behavior considering material and parametric uncertainties. The semi-empirical models are used to assess the asset’s susceptibility, system degradation rate, and defect growth over time under harsh corrosive environment. The developed model is translated into a limit state function in a probabilistic framework to define the asset’s safe operating envelope. The probabilistic framework is simulated considering the variations in the material properties of steel grades, corrosion response parameters, and types of susceptibility models. The variabilities in the ultimate tensile strength, operating pressure, and wall thickness exhibit the highest contributions to pipeline failure behavior in a harsh offshore environment. It is also observed that the failure probability of the pipeline increases with an increase in the coefficient of variation at the lower bound of failure, while it decreases at the upper bound of failure. The coefficient of variation for the tensile strength shows a 32.2% (the highest) impact on the limit state function performance as the year of exposure progresses. The proposed approach offers a systematic framework for an appropriate material selection and risk-based integrity management strategy for offshore structures, including pipelines.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":100824,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Pipeline Science and Engineering","volume":"1 3","pages":"Pages 265-276"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S266714332100055X/pdfft?md5=2360056338941e86fa60837caa43f696&pid=1-s2.0-S266714332100055X-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87938398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 19