Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics最新文献_第3页

What Drives Shareholders' Reaction To CEO Turnovers, Dividend Changes, and Block Trades? A Theoretical Background 股东对CEO离职、股息变动和大宗交易的反应是什么?理论背景

IF 0.2

Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.2478/ceej-2023-0004

Agnieszka Preś-Perepeczo

{"title":"What Drives Shareholders' Reaction To CEO Turnovers, Dividend Changes, and Block Trades? A Theoretical Background","authors":"Agnieszka Preś-Perepeczo","doi":"10.2478/ceej-2023-0004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2023-0004","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study presents a review of theoretical concepts described in the literature that explain how corporate events might be perceived by investors. The theoretical discussion in this paper is related to three corporate events: CEO turnovers, dividend payouts, and block trades. The objective of this analysis is to identify and systemise the theoretical background for the drivers of shareholders' responses to these three corporate decisions. In other words, I will provide answers to the following questions: why is the market reaction sometimes positive and other times negative, and why is it sometimes stronger and other times weaker? Based on the literature review, I will show that each of the analysed corporate events might be perceived by shareholders as either positive or negative signals concerning perspectives and future cash flows. Consequently, corporate events might drive share prices up or down. However, shareholder reaction to one type of the event, such as CEO turnovers, will not always be homogeneous – only positive or negative. The strength of this reaction may also vary. The main reasons for these variations are the effectiveness of corporate governance mechanisms, investors' perceptions of the event, the event's peculiarities, and the company's characteristics, as well as other relevant circumstances and factors.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89807717","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Macroeconomic Determinants of Credit Risk on the Example of Non-performing Loans 信用风险的宏观经济决定因素——以不良贷款为例

Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.2478/ceej-2023-0016

Adam Zawadzki

{"title":"Macroeconomic Determinants of Credit Risk on the Example of Non-performing Loans","authors":"Adam Zawadzki","doi":"10.2478/ceej-2023-0016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2023-0016","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The primary goal of this article is to examine the principal macroeconomic factors influencing credit risk as assessed by the nonperforming loan ratio (hereinafter NPL ratio). Based on the results, the ratio of domestic credit to the private sector, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) membership with a negative correlation with NPLs while the unemployment rate and the ratio of public debt with a positive relation with NPLs were statistically significant. In addition, the correlation between the inflation rate and the depreciation of the home currency was proven. The research examines the effects of the 2008 credit crunch, which triggered the financial crisis. The sample comprises 106 countries for the period 2009–2019. The real GDP growth, unemployment rate, public debt ratio, domestic credit to private sector ratio, currency depreciation, inflation rate, and interest rate were analysed as macroeconomic factors. A dummy variable representing OECD membership has been included in the analysis. The estimations were performed using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method. This article contributes to the academic discourse on the panel data perspective with regard to non-performing loans, while the practical implications are beneficial for governments and international investors.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136373024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Comparison of Compulsory Liability Insurance of Tax Advisors in Poland to the Czech Counterpart 波兰与捷克税务顾问强制责任保险比较

IF 0.2

Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.2478/ceej-2023-0010

Marcel Myśliński

{"title":"Comparison of Compulsory Liability Insurance of Tax Advisors in Poland to the Czech Counterpart","authors":"Marcel Myśliński","doi":"10.2478/ceej-2023-0010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2023-0010","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper aims to assess the adequacy of obligatory tax advisors’ insurance to meet their needs in Poland and Czechia using the comparative-legal method. It is crucial, due to the need to protect the weaker party in a transaction and provide certainty in trading. The comparison is made between legislation concerning compulsory liability insurance for tax advisors and the general contracts negotiated by professional self-governing bodies. The Polish product is characterised by mandatory coverage and private initiative. Like other compulsory insurance, this product is more accessory than voluntary insurance because the insurer also provides protection in case of damage caused by gross negligence. In that insurance, there are no limitations of a financial nature (deductible, integral, and deductible franchise) on the liability of insurance companies. Consequently, the insurance company’s liability is even more similar to the insured’s. The reduction of accessoriality occurs only in regulated exclusions. The Czech legislator has only imposed the obligation to have this insurance without handling its details. The General Insurance Conditions regulate the remaining matter. The analysis indicated that the Polish regulations provide more complete protection. However, they require some modernisation—an increase in the sum assured (10,000 EUR is too low) or how it is calculated. Reasults show faults in existing Polish regulations and indicate ways to improve them.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88423880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The EU's Socio-economic Development Against the Backdrop of the War in Ukraine 乌克兰战争背景下的欧盟社会经济发展

IF 0.2

Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.2478/ceej-2023-0005

K. Boichenko, Rana Umair Ashraf, Mário Nuno Mata, Ștefan Cristian Gherghina

{"title":"The EU's Socio-economic Development Against the Backdrop of the War in Ukraine","authors":"K. Boichenko, Rana Umair Ashraf, Mário Nuno Mata, Ștefan Cristian Gherghina","doi":"10.2478/ceej-2023-0005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2023-0005","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The war in Ukraine affects the European Union (EU) member states asymmetrically. The purpose of the study is to determine changes in the development of the EU countries in three key directions: ‘economy and environment’, ‘business and trade’, and ‘people and work’; to identify clusters of countries with similar transformations; and to model the impact of the studied indicators on the level of public debt amid the war in Ukraine. The research methodology includes the definition of a complex indicator of changes in the socio-economic development of EU countries, correlation and cluster analysis, and modelling the influence of the studied factors/indicators on the level of public debt. Research of changes in the context of the proposed complex indicators and their components under conditions of war showed that the changes in the areas under review varied for EU countries. Against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, 17 EU countries faced a slowdown in their socio-economic growth, among which Poland was the most severely affected. Modelling made it possible to determine that, amid the war, the most important factors for the EU public debt are inflation, labour market conditions, and the possibilities of the balance of payments and the international investment position incorporated into GDP. The conducted research proves that the war in Ukraine increases the scale and relevance of general challenges that cannot be addressed at the national level. Strengthening the European defence against external aggression is the entire task of the EU.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81996870","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

The Family 500+ benefit and changes in female employment in Poland 家庭500+福利和波兰妇女就业的变化

IF 0.2

Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.2478/ceej-2023-0002

K. Bartosik

引用次数: 0

Is Bitcoin an emerging market? A market efficiency perspective 比特币是新兴市场吗?市场效率视角

IF 0.2

Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.2478/ceej-2023-0013

Mateusz Skwarek

{"title":"Is Bitcoin an emerging market? A market efficiency perspective","authors":"Mateusz Skwarek","doi":"10.2478/ceej-2023-0013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2023-0013","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Despite recent studies focused on comparing the dynamics of market efficiency between Bitcoin and other traditional assets, there is a lack of knowledge about whether Bitcoin and emerging markets efficiency behave similarly. This paper aims to compare the market efficiency dynamics between Bitcoin and the emerging stock markets. In particular, this study indicates whether the dynamics of Bitcoin market efficiency mimic those of emerging stock markets. Thus, the paper's contribution emerges from the combination of Bitcoin and emerging markets in the field of dynamics of market efficiency. The dynamics of market efficiency are measured using the Hurst exponent in the rolling window. The study uses daily data for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the Bitcoin market over the period 2011–2022. Our results show that there is at most a moderate correlation between the dynamics of Bitcoin and emerging stock markets’ efficiency over the entire study period. The strongest correlations occur mainly in periods of high economic policy uncertainty in the largest Bitcoin mining countries. Therefore, the association between Bitcoin market efficiency and emerging stock markets’ efficiency may strengthen with an increase in economic policy uncertainty. These findings may be useful for investors and portfolio managers in constructing better investment strategies.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74798759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Combining forecasts? Keep it simple 结合预测?保持简单

Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.2478/ceej-2023-0020

Szymon Lis, Marcin Chlebus

引用次数: 0

Resilience, Ambiguous Governance, and the Ukrainian Refugee Crisis: Perspectives from NGO Leaders in the Czech Republic 弹性、模糊治理和乌克兰难民危机:来自捷克共和国非政府组织领导人的观点

IF 0.2

Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.2478/ceej-2023-0003

T. Bryan, Monica Lea, Vladimír Hyánek

{"title":"Resilience, Ambiguous Governance, and the Ukrainian Refugee Crisis: Perspectives from NGO Leaders in the Czech Republic","authors":"T. Bryan, Monica Lea, Vladimír Hyánek","doi":"10.2478/ceej-2023-0003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2023-0003","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The Russian invasion of Ukraine in late February of 2022 caused a humanitarian refugee crisis on a scale unseen since World War II. The scale and speed at which refugees surged into other European countries required significant resources to respond to this influx. This study explores the perspectives of those working in NGOs about the resilience of their organisations in responding to the Ukrainian refugee crisis in the Czech Republic. Drawing on interview data collected at the beginning of the refugee response in the Czech Republic between February and June of 2022, our findings suggest that NGOs face capacity and governance challenges, and these system-level barriers inhibit NGO resilience and their ability to respond effectively to the Ukrainian refugee crisis in the long term. These lasting effects influence NGO resilience in the face of the unprecedented Ukrainian crisis. Despite these barriers, NGOs acted with flexibility and agility in delivering humanitarian assistance to Ukrainian refugees in the first few months of the crisis. The findings from this study indicate NGOs engage in organisational resilience strategies within a policy and governance system that lacks the adaptability and coordination needed to be resilient.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72398581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Modification of technical analysis indicators and increasing the rate of return on investment 修改技术分析指标，提高投资回报率

IF 0.2

Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.2478/ceej-2023-0009

Paweł Oktaba, M. Grzywińska-Rąpca

{"title":"Modification of technical analysis indicators and increasing the rate of return on investment","authors":"Paweł Oktaba, M. Grzywińska-Rąpca","doi":"10.2478/ceej-2023-0009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2023-0009","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Financial markets are seen as one of the most important markets in economic terms. The activities of investors in the financial markets consist in predicting how best to invest the accumulated capital, using all kinds of analyzes and forecasts. In the literature on the subject, apart from fundamental analysis, technical analysis is distinguished. While the first one is to help you choose a specific asset with profitable potential, technical analysis is designed to help the investor find a specific moment that is most suitable for buying or selling. The aim of the article is to demonstrate the potential benefits associated with modifying the default settings of technical analysis indicators on the example of the EUR/USD currency pair using the MetaTrader4 investment platform. Analizing was carried out on the basis of the most popular currency pair in terms of turnover on the Forex market - EUR/USD. The research used an investment strategy based on Parabolic SAR and Relative Strength Index RSI technical analysis indicators, whose indications were verified both in the context of default settings and after the author‘s modification. The results of the conducted research indicate significant differences, depending on the adopted parameters of the above-mentioned indicators.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86950437","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Demographic factors and customers’ bank choice criteria 人口因素与客户银行选择标准

Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.2478/ceej-2023-0014

Katarzyna Schmidt-Jessa

引用次数: 0