India Policy Forum : [papers]. India Policy Forum. Conference最新文献

{"title":"Review of The Debt Sustainability Framework For Market Access Countries","authors":"","doi":"10.5089/9781513568324.007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513568324.007","url":null,"abstract":"A careful review has revealed significant scope to modernize and better align the MAC DSA with its objectives and the IMF’s lending framework. This note proposes replacing the current framework with a new methodology based on risk assessments at three different horizons.\u0000Extensive testing has shown that the proposed framework has much better predictive accuracy than the current one. In addition to predicting sovereign stress, the framework can be used to derive statements about debt stabilization under current policies and about debt sustainability.","PeriodicalId":91273,"journal":{"name":"India Policy Forum : [papers]. India Policy Forum. Conference","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90018106","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Measuring the Informal Economy","authors":"Gabriel Quirós-Romero, Thomas Alexander, Jennifer Ribarsky","doi":"10.5089/9781513568249.007.A001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513568249.007.A001","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes a framework for measuring the informal economy that is consistent with internationally agreed concepts and methodology for measuring GDP. Based on the proposed framework, the informal economy “comprises production of informal sector units, production of goods for own final use, production of domestic workers, and production generated by informal employment in formal enterprises.” This proposed framework will facilitate preparation of estimates of the informal economy as a component of GDP.","PeriodicalId":91273,"journal":{"name":"India Policy Forum : [papers]. India Policy Forum. Conference","volume":"160 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77149289","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review— Background Paper on Integrating Climate Change into Article IV Consultations","authors":"C. Pazarbaşioǧlu, Prasad Ananthakrishnan","doi":"10.5089/9781513582689.007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513582689.007","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change has emerged rapidly as a pressing challenge for macroeconomic policymakers. Among other things, climate change redistributes income and affects asset valuations, with repercussions for public and private sector balance sheets, financial flows and financial stability, trade, and exchange rates. Fiscal policies are key for mitigating climate change and ensuring a socially balanced transition to a low carbon economy. Countries that are vulnerable to natural disasters need to build fiscal space and deepen access to financing in order to build resilience. While the IMF has been involved in the climate debate since at least 2008, a systematic account of how to integrate climate change into surveillance has been lacking to date. This paper seeks to fill the gap. It argues that domestic policy challenges related to climate change — such as adaptation efforts for climate vulnerable countries, or policies to deliver a country’s Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris climate accord — are covered by the I MF’s bilateral surveillance mandate and therefore valid topics for Article IV consultations wherever these challenges cross the threshold of macro-criticality. Climate change mitigation is a global policy challenge and therefore falls under multilateral surveillance. The paper proposes a pragmatic approach that focusses especially on the mitigation efforts of the 20 largest emitters of greenhouse gases.","PeriodicalId":91273,"journal":{"name":"India Policy Forum : [papers]. India Policy Forum. Conference","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76066276","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review— Background Paper on Scenario Planning","authors":"","doi":"10.5089/9781513583174.007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513583174.007","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":91273,"journal":{"name":"India Policy Forum : [papers]. India Policy Forum. Conference","volume":"40 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75708701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review— Background Paper on The Surveillance Priority Preempting and Mitigating Spillovers","authors":"Dora Douglass Kochman","doi":"10.5089/9781513578910.007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513578910.007","url":null,"abstract":"causing their economic situation to deteriorate and potentially take policy actions in reaction to the spillover that lead to adverse feedback effec ts (“spillbacks”) on the source country. focus on inward spillovers in IV consultations. spillover work via range of surveillance in Article IV consultations. understand and more consistent coverage of outward spillovers in surveillance, through with member The 2019 IEO’s review of Fund work in unconventional monetary policy (Independent Evaluation Office 2019) conclusions, strengthen work on cross-border spillovers, including analyzing further how finetuning the policy mix in source countries can alleviate adverse spillovers on recipient countries. recommended to make sure Fund is at the forefront of financial spillover analysis and provision of advice on dealing with capital flows, drawing on its global multilateral mandate, universal membership, and breadth of country experience. spending shocks, and among countries with fixed exchange rates. from the U.S. oil and gas sector becoming a global shock absorber, and spillovers from U.S. fiscal and monetary policy. The RAM discussed potential inward spillovers, including from a significant China slowdown and a disorderly Brexit.","PeriodicalId":91273,"journal":{"name":"India Policy Forum : [papers]. India Policy Forum. Conference","volume":"276 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86734387","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"G20 Note On Environmentally Sustainable Investment For The Recovery","authors":"P. Mauro","doi":"10.5089/9781513577913.007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513577913.007","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":91273,"journal":{"name":"India Policy Forum : [papers]. India Policy Forum. Conference","volume":"67 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82579129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review— Background Paper on Main Findings from The Stakeholder Surveys","authors":"Stakeholder Surveys, C. Pazarbaşioǧlu","doi":"10.5089/9781513577883.007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513577883.007","url":null,"abstract":"This note presents key results from the surveys of country authorities, IMF Executive Directors (EDs), and mission chiefs (MCs) to inform the Comprehensive Surveillance Review (CSR). The main survey was conducted in May / June 2019. A short survey update was conducted in August 2020 to determine how the ongoing global COVID- 19 crisis impacted the original survey’s findings. Key takeaways and cross-cutting themes that emerge are: productivity","PeriodicalId":91273,"journal":{"name":"India Policy Forum : [papers]. India Policy Forum. Conference","volume":"46 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73625531","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"2021 Financial Sector Assessment Program Review—Towards A More Stable And Sustainable Financial System","authors":"","doi":"10.5089/9781513583907.007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513583907.007","url":null,"abstract":"the This review examined the Fund’s role and responsibilities in the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) as the global financial stability landscape has continued to evolve. The pandemic has highlighted the importance of assessing financial stability risks from vulnerabilities in the nonfinancial sectors, possibly long-lasting scarring effects, and digitalization. Climate change also has important implications for the financial sector. The review assessed how the FSAP has adapted to the transformation of financial systems and emerging new risks and provided proposals on enhancing the value of the FSAP for national authorities and further strengthening its contribution to Fund financial surveillance. The review was based on background staff analyses and surveys of country authorities and Executive Directors. The FSAP provides in-depth assessments of financial sectors and provides important input to Fund surveillance. Assessments of financial sectors are usually conducted jointly with the World Bank in emerging market and developing economies and by the Fund alone in advanced economies. These assessments provide valuable analysis and policy recommendations for surveillance and capacity development. A landmark change in the FSAP took place in 2010 when the IMF’s Executive Board mandated that jurisdictions with Systemically Important Financial Sectors (SIFS) participate in financial stability assessments as a part of Fund surveillance. Since 2013, the list of such jurisdictions has been set at 29— so-called S29. Since the program’s inception in 1999, 157 Fund members have undergone individual or regional FSAPs. In recent years, the Fund has been conducting 12–14 FSAPs per year. More than half has been voluntary assessments and for emerging market and developing economies. This review builds on past assessments of the program. The 2014 review emphasized systemic risk and deeper analysis of nonbank financial institutions and interconnectedness. It called for more work on macroprudential policies, more flexible use of international standards, and greater integration with bilateral surveillance. The 2019 evaluation of IMF financial surveillance by the Independent Evaluation Office called for further integration of FSAP and Article the frequency of more risk-based. This Decision sets out the scope and modalities of bilateral surveillance over the financial sector policies of members with systemically important financial sectors and of multilateral surveillance over the spillovers arising from such policies in accordance with Article IV, Sections 3(a) and (b) of the Fund’s Articles and the Fund’s Decision on Bilateral and Multilateral Surveillance – 2012 Integrated Surveillance Decision (Decision No. 15203-(12/72), adopted July 18, 2012 (the “ISD”). This Decision sets out the scope and modalities of bilateral surveillance over the financial sector policies of members with systemically important financial sectors and of multilateral surveillance over","PeriodicalId":91273,"journal":{"name":"India Policy Forum : [papers]. India Policy Forum. Conference","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84629660","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Update on the Joint IMF-WB Multipronged Approach to Address Debt Vulnerabilities","authors":"Miguel A. Savastano, Dalia S. Hakura, Cigdem Aslan, R. Cabral, Jessie Nabulambo Kilembe, L. Hakim, Miriam Tamene Mcm, Antonio Garcia Pinto","doi":"10.5089/9781513563619.007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513563619.007","url":null,"abstract":"Amid rising debt risks in low-income developing countries and emerging markets, the IMF and the WB have been implementing a multipronged approach (MPA) to address debt vulnerabilities. Amplification of debt risks owing to COVID-19 has upped the urgency to implement the MPA and highlights the importance of debt sustainability and transparency for long-term financing for development. At the same time, it should be noted that countries have limited capacities which are further stretched by COVID-19 and that implementation of the MPA by itself may not be sufficient to address debt vulnerabilities and risks from global economic shocks.","PeriodicalId":91273,"journal":{"name":"India Policy Forum : [papers]. India Policy Forum. Conference","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73886980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries","authors":"","doi":"10.5089/9781513563572.007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513563572.007","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 pandemic is having far-reaching consequences for the global economy. Measures to contain the spread of the virus have led to sharp declines in economic activity across the globe, particularly in 2020Q2. The hardest hit sectors have been those requiring intensive human contact, such as tourism, transportation, services, and construction, while, in general, IT-intensive activities have fared better. The economic contraction is most significant in advanced economies.\u0000The GCC countries face a double impact from the coronavirus and lower oil prices. GCC authorities have implemented a range of appropriate measures to mitigate the economic damage, including fiscal packages, relaxation of monetary and macroprudential rules, and the injection of liquidity into the banking system, and there are recent signs of improvement. Low oil prices have caused a sharp deterioration of external and fiscal balances, and fiscal strains are evident in countries with higher debt levels.","PeriodicalId":91273,"journal":{"name":"India Policy Forum : [papers]. India Policy Forum. Conference","volume":"72 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73618597","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}