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{"title":"Commentary on foresight and trade-off analysis for agriculture and food systems","authors":"K. Wiebe, S. Prager","doi":"10.1093/QOPEN/QOAA004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/QOPEN/QOAA004","url":null,"abstract":"The papers and ideas on foresight and trade-off analysis presented in this issue are very timely. They come as our agriculture, food, and related resource systems are experiencing severe shocks (immediate as well as longer term) that call for unprecedented responses under a high degree of uncertainty. At the same time, a key part of the international agricultural research system is undergoing a fundamental restructuring that challenges us with both need and opportunity to rethink research priorities to inform decision making and improve agriculture and food system outcomes. These papers offer insights into how foresight and trade-off analysis can help us meet the complex, integrated changes that we are currently facing—and will continue to face for many years to come. Thinking about the future and weighing alternative options are, of course, nothing new. We do both daily, often subconsciously. What is new in the context of agri-food systems in recent years is the scale, complexity, and interconnectedness of these systems themselves. In introducing this collection, Barrett et al. (this issue) note that these systems have largely evolved in an uncoordinated way, given that they are driven by the individual decisions of hundreds of millions of producers and billions of consumers around the world, not to mention countless intermediaries and highly heterogeneous environmental and economic contexts. These features pose massive challenges to identifying and implementing the needed policy responses to help balance multiple goals ranging from environmental sustainability and food security to equity in access to economic opportunities across the value chain. The number of studies and reports on foresight and trade-offs related to agri-food systems has grown rapidly alongside these challenges—indeed to the point where it is difficult to keep up with them. One of the services that this collection of papers offers is to review a subset of those reports. Zurek et al. (this issue) focus particularly on a selection related to climate change and the environment, while Lentz (this issue) focuses particularly on foresight related to gender, poverty, and nutrition. Antle and Valdivia (this issue) in turn note the importance of analysis that explicitly recognizes and evaluates the trade-offs between multiple and diverse goals and outcomes at a range of scales.","PeriodicalId":87350,"journal":{"name":"Q open","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/QOPEN/QOAA004","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45216408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The effect of consumers’ supermarket competence on information search and shopping outcomes in two Balkan cities","authors":"K. Grunert, R. Haas, D. Imami, Iliriana Miftari","doi":"10.1093/QOPEN/QOAA006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/QOPEN/QOAA006","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Distribution systems for food can change quickly in emergent markets, requiring new competences for consumers, and even in some European countries we have seen considerable changes in the distribution system for food in recent decades, raising the question whether consumers have acquired corresponding competences. We take two Balkan countries, Albania and Kosovo, as a case in point and measure consumers’ competence in dealing with package and price information in supermarkets and how this affects their information search behavior and the outcome of their shopping trips in terms of shopping pleasure, shopping trip satisfaction, and perceived risk. Results from data collected in the two countries’ main cities, Pristina and Tirana, show that higher levels of competence lead to more information search and better shopping outcomes, but that information search in certain cases can also increase perceived risk and diminish pleasure and satisfaction. In addition, considerable differences in the two cities can be found, which can be linked to differences in their history.","PeriodicalId":87350,"journal":{"name":"Q open","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/QOPEN/QOAA006","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44183022","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Impacts of COVID-19 on GDP, food prices, and food security","authors":"Jayson Beckman, F. Baquedano, Amanda M. Countryman","doi":"10.1093/qopen/qoab005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qopen/qoab005","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract COVID-19 has led to a wealth of research examining possible impacts; however, potential impacts to food security have received much less attention. We use a computable general equilibrium model to simulate the potential impacts of COVID-19 using observed changes from 2020 (September) in unemployment, trade, oil prices, and production to inform our model. Estimated GDP and food price changes are then used as inputs into the International Food Security Assessment (IFSA) model which estimates changes in food consumption, and food gaps in developing countries. Results indicate that the COVID-19 lockdowns lead to a decrease in global GDP of 7.2 per cent, and a decrease in grain prices of 9 per cent. These changes lead to an increase in the number of food-insecure people in 2020 of 211 million (a 27.8 per cent increase). We also perform a sensitivity analysis, providing a lower and upper bound of potential impacts from COVID-19.","PeriodicalId":87350,"journal":{"name":"Q open","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/qopen/qoab005","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49041013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The case of organic dairy conversion in Norway: Assessment of multivariate neighbourhood effects","authors":"T. Marton, Hugo Storm","doi":"10.1093/QOPEN/QOAB009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/QOPEN/QOAB009","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This study examines the impact of neighbourhood effects and individual farm characteristics on the decision process of organic dairy conversion in Norway, using a unique, spatially explicit farm-level panel set comprising information at the population level from 2003 to 2015. Our results reveal a positive spatial spillover of neighbouring conversion, confirming previous findings. Additionally, we demonstrate that neighbouring organic dairy reversion (i.e. switching back to conventional dairy farming) and organic dairy exits (ceasing to farm altogether) exert notable negative spatial spillovers on organic conversion decisions that have not yet been shown in the literature. If organic dairy production is an important policy goal, such negative spatial spillover requires consideration within policy design and extension.","PeriodicalId":87350,"journal":{"name":"Q open","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/QOPEN/QOAB009","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41914085","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Incentivising biodiversity net gain with an offset market","authors":"Katherine Simpson, N. Hanley, P. Armsworth, Frans P. de Vries, M. Dallimer","doi":"10.1093/QOPEN/QOAB004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/QOPEN/QOAB004","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Most programmes that incentivise the supply of public goods such as biodiversity conservation on private land in Europe are financed through the public purse. However, new ideas for how to fund biodiversity conservation are urgently needed, given recent reviews of the poor state of global biodiversity. In this paper, we investigate the use of private funding for biodiversity conservation through an offset market. The environmental objective is to increase some measure of biodiversity in a region (‘net gain’) despite the loss of land for new housing. Farmers create biodiversity credits by changing their land management and then sell these credits to housing developers who are required to more than offset the impacts of new housing development on a specific indicator of biodiversity. Combining an economic model of market operation with an ecological model linking land management to bird populations, we examine the operation, costs, and biodiversity impacts of such a (hypothetical) market as the target level of net gain is increased. A general result is established for the impacts on price and quantity in the offset market as the net gain target is made more ambitious. For a case-study site in Scotland, we find that as the net gain target is increased, the number of offsets traded in equilibrium falls, as does the market-clearing offset price. Changes in the spatial pattern of gains and losses in our biodiversity index also occur as the net gain target is raised.","PeriodicalId":87350,"journal":{"name":"Q open","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/QOPEN/QOAB004","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49106549","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"What are the overall implications of rising demand for organic fruits and vegetables? Evidence from theory and simulations","authors":"B. McFadden, John Bovay, C. Mullally","doi":"10.1093/QOPEN/QOAB008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/QOPEN/QOAB008","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 US consumers currently eat less fruits and vegetables (FV) than recommended by dietary guidelines. Inadequate FV consumption exists alongside rapid growth in demand for organic FV. Since the viable production area of FV is finite, organic and conventional FV are linked in production while serving as substitutes in consumption. Rising purchases of organic FV may have important implications for prices and quantities consumed in the conventional FV market. In this paper, we analyze the implications of rising demand for organic FV when organic and conventional FV are linked in supply and demand. More specifically, we use a multi-market equilibrium displacement model to examine the impact of rising demand for organic produce on prices and total quantities consumed of conventional and organic FV under two scenarios: product differentiation (i.e. organic versus conventional produce) while assuming that consumers have identical preferences that can be represented by a single market demand function for each good; and product differentiation with segmented markets, which allows for two types of consumers with unique demand functions. Both scenarios were simulated with and without an offsetting shift in demand for conventional FV. Our simulation results indicate that the increasing demand for organic FV may result in decreased consumption of combined conventional and organic FV, and that the direction of changes in FV consumption may vary by consumer segment. Under the most realistic assumptions, when one segment of consumers increases its demand for organic FV, this segment's overall consumption of organic plus conventional FV falls; the other segment's overall consumption rises. We provide sensitivity analyses and discuss caveats and directions for future research.","PeriodicalId":87350,"journal":{"name":"Q open","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/QOPEN/QOAB008","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49132950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"OUP accepted manuscript","authors":"","doi":"10.1093/qopen/qoab020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/qopen/qoab020","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":87350,"journal":{"name":"Q open","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"61066949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}