Voprosy statistiki (Moscow, Russia : 1994)最新文献

{"title":"Factors in Life Expectancy: A Cross-Country Analysis","authors":"A. A. Vladimirskaya, M. Kolosnitsyna","doi":"10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-1-70-89","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-1-70-89","url":null,"abstract":"The objective of the study, selected results of which are presented in the article, is to find the main determinants of life expectancy (LE) using regression analysis methods for four groups of countries classified by income. The criterion for assigning the country to the income group is the indicator of GDP per capita. The paper identifies four income groups: the so-called poor countries, upper middle- and lower middle-income countries, and wealthy countries. The first part of the article analyzes theoretical and applied research in health care, demography, and the relationship of life expectancy with economic development. At the same time, special attention is paid to scientific publications that address the impact on macroeconomic growth in individual countries of such factors as the development of healthcare systems, environmental factors, and life expectancy.The second part of the article highlights issues of testing empirical hypotheses about the direction of the influence of certain groups of factors on life expectancy and the degree of their influence on different income groups of countries using data from the World Bank and the World Health Organization. The paper uses panel data for 2011–2019, based on which regression models are built for each income group of countries, taking into account time lags to correct for endogeneity.The results of the study show the importance of both health system characteristics and socioeconomic factors in most income groups. However, it turns out that the influence of individual factors on life expectancy differs depending on the value of GDP per capita of the country. Thus, for poor countries with low life expectancy, the problems of food availability, health care costs, the share of Internet users, unemployment, and population density are significant. At the same time, in middle-income countries, life expectancy is influenced not only by the above factors but also by the proportion of the urban population, the prevalence of tobacco, the number of hospital beds, and carbon dioxide emissions. For wealthy countries, however, bad habits (both the prevalence of tobacco and alcohol consumption) that are commonly called \"diseases of civilization\", turn out to be especially significant.","PeriodicalId":85843,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy statistiki (Moscow, Russia : 1994)","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85112496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Statistical Analysis of Critical Socioeconomic Factors in the Development of COVID-19 Disease","authors":"S. Ponomarenko","doi":"10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-1-90-100","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-1-90-100","url":null,"abstract":"The study aimed to analyze the impact of several economic and social factors on the course of the COVID-19 pandemic by comparing statistical data in large and representative samples and to assess the critical factors influencing the development of the infectious process of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.To create this review, the necessary publications were found on the Internet for the selected keywords both in one tag and different tag combinations. Statistics of economic and social factors were based on data available on the Internet. The Pearson correlation coefficient (r) to determine the statistical relationship was used.The relationship between economic or social factors and the impact of the 15-month COVID-19 pandemic in different regions was investigated using various available statistics for five continents and 52 countries for the first time. A positive relationship between the consequences of viral epidemic and GDP per capita or the type of human diet was found with correlation coefficients in the range of 0.42–0.87. The development of the viral epidemic showed a less clear correlation with population density from r = -0.18 to r = -0.28, depending on the selected group of countries. For island nations, geographic isolation was the dominant defense against SARS-CoV-2 infection.The comparison of the development of COVID-19 according to statistical data in different regions and the study of economic or social aspects, performed on large representative samples, showed that the productive infection and pathogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 increased with a high standard of living and excessive consumption of staple foods. In countries with low GDP and adequate protein or fat intake, the rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and death did not exceed the minimum epidemic threshold. The study of the influence of consumed macronutrients on the dynamics of the infectious cycle of the SARS-CoV-2 virus will help explain the reason for such resistance to the pathogen. Such a study would require further comparative analysis of COVID-19 pandemic statistics.","PeriodicalId":85843,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy statistiki (Moscow, Russia : 1994)","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90127309","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Estimation of Russia's GDP Losses Due to Sanctions Using the Global Vector Autoregression Model","authors":"A. Zubarev, M. A. Kirillova","doi":"10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-1-18-26","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-1-18-26","url":null,"abstract":"Using mathematical and statistical methods, the authors made an attempt to estimate the losses in the domestic economy under the impact of the imposed sanctions. As a measurement tool is proposed a global vector autoregression model. In this model, the dynamics of GDP is considered as the main performance characteristic, and the rate of change in foreign trade turnover with key partners is used as the key prerequisites for the forecast. The use of this model building scheme is explained by the fact that the economic sanctions imposed on Russia have a negative impact on domestic macroeconomic indicators, and this happens through a variety of channels, key ones being the restriction of external demand and supply, leading to a decrease in trade turnover with the main trading partners, and change in oil revenues. This approach takes into account the relationship between the economies of different countries and their dependence on global markets. To obtain quantitative estimates, conditional forecasts are used as part of scenario analysis.According to the authors’ approach the losses from economic sanctions are measured by the decrease in the volume of Russia's foreign trade with key foreign trade partners, as well as by the discount for Russian oil compared to its global price. In addition to the forecast estimates, the validity of the approach is proofed with the forecast for the crisis period of 2014–2015 as an example. Based on the analysis of the current situation in foreign trade, Russian GDP in 2022 in the baseline scenario may fall by 5.4%, but with some reorientation of trade a decrease may be around 3.7%.","PeriodicalId":85843,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy statistiki (Moscow, Russia : 1994)","volume":"50 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87578083","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Economic Determinants of Mortality from Cardiovascular Diseases in Russian Regions","authors":"T. Kossova","doi":"10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-1-42-51","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-1-42-51","url":null,"abstract":"This article aims to investigate economic factors that determine the mortality rate from cardiovascular diseases in Russian regions. Independent variables are socio-economic factors, including the level of well-being, characteristics of the health care system in the region, level of alcohol consumption as a characteristic of the lifestyle of the population, as well as the directions of state policy for prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases, and alcohol and tobacco control initiatives. These factors are the focus of several social programs currently being implemented in Russia. The objective of this study is to identify the degree of sensitivity of the mortality rate from circulatory system diseases to changes in each of the factors considered. This will help to guide public policies aimed at improving population health.The empirical component of the study is based on the data from the Federal State Statistics Service of Russia (for the period from 2005 to 2019), as well as regional budgets and territorial compulsory health insurance funds. Panel data model with fixed effects was evaluated, and the elasticity of mortality from circulatory system diseases to changes in the formed set of factors. The paper shows that an increase in health care costs leads to a decrease in mortality from circulatory system diseases. With that, the sensitivity of this indicator to a one percent change in factors of well-being and lifestyle, including the volume of alcohol consumption, is higher than the sensitivity to a one percent change in health care expenditures. The article revealed the presence of a statistically significant relationship between changes in the legislation, which led to a significant increase in the availability of expensive medical care, and a decrease in mortality from circulatory system diseases. The findings are relevant for those reforming the health care system and can serve as a guideline for developing parameters of government healthcare programs.","PeriodicalId":85843,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy statistiki (Moscow, Russia : 1994)","volume":"52 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81104944","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Statistics as a Tool of Mental Warfare","authors":"M. Karmanov","doi":"10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-1-52-57","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-1-52-57","url":null,"abstract":"The article focuses the attention of the civil and professional scientific community on the content, features, and terrible risks of modern mental warfare, conducted using methods and techniques of information and statistical impact on both individual socio-demographic groups and the general population.The author covers the role, place, and possible use of statistics and statistical data in the process of implementing mental special operations aimed at changing the worldview, breaking down traditional values, and destroying national sovereignty of actual and potential enemies without the use of conventional weapons. The article concludes that there is a need to provide mental security, especially for the younger generations, in which the critical role belongs to the further development of different levels of statistical education and the improvement of statistical literacy of the population, forming the prerequisites for successfully combatting information sabotage aimed at destroying the historical bonds and traditional values of the Russian society.","PeriodicalId":85843,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy statistiki (Moscow, Russia : 1994)","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81802252","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Analysis and Modeling of the Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on the Commissioning of Residential Real Estate in Russia","authors":"N. Zvezdina, A. V. Saraev","doi":"10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-1-27-41","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-1-27-41","url":null,"abstract":"The system of statistical indicators, which is necessary for the construction of mathematical and statistical models that reflect modern domestic trends in the development of the residential real estate market is explained. The official data from the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), the Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System (EMISS), the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR), and the Unified Housing Construction Information System (UIIS) served as information sources for the empirical component of the study.Based on quarterly data for 2010–2021 using ARIMA and SARIMA models, a time series of residential real estate commissions in the Russian Federation was modeled and predicted for 2022. Both models make it possible to account for the influence of the seasonal component. Based on results of the time series regression analysis, the authors selected a mathematical and statistical model with the best approximating characteristics. To model the volume of commissioning of residential real estate in the Russian market, with due regard to the influence of macroeconomic factors, the ARMAX model was used, which has significant explanatory power.The results of the study presented in the article may be of interest to analytical agencies, developers, banking professionals, financiers, economists, analysts of the real estate market or related areas, as well as authorities for strategic planning of the development of the real estate market.","PeriodicalId":85843,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy statistiki (Moscow, Russia : 1994)","volume":"173 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74869421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Entry into the Russian Labor Market of Graduates of Professional and Higher Educational Institutions (Based on Sample Surveys)","authors":"K. Laykam, Z. Z. Zainullina, L. Matraeva, E. Vasiutina, N. A. Korolkova","doi":"10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-1-5-17","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2023-30-1-5-17","url":null,"abstract":"This article is based on the materials of the analytical report «Analysis of the results obtained on the basis of data from a sample observation of the employment of graduates in 2016–2020 who received secondary vocational and higher education».The introductory part explains the relevance of improving statistical tools for studying the economic activity of young people at the present stage of the socio-economic development of Russia.The body of the article introduces a brief description of the main methodological provisions of the observation, and also covers main differences between the second round of observation (VTR-2021) and the first round (VTR-2016). The paper presents results of the economic and statistical analysis of the employment of graduates according to the data of VTR-2021. As part of the analysis of educational migration, the article reveals the orientation of graduates to educational institutions within the borders of the subject of the Russian Federation they reside in, as well as the relationship between the level of education of graduates and the intensity of their mobility. The distance education «withers away» and the part-time education starts to play a special role as it allows one to combine study with work. There is an increase in the proportion of those who prefer to combine work and study. The authors highlight two main reasons for combining work and study: 1) the desire to have a personal income; 2) the desire to gain work experience in the future specialty. Based on the structural analysis, the conclusion is made about the dominance of various motives depending on the level of education.It is shown that the main difficulties the graduates face when finding employment are the lack or insufficiency of work experience, low wages, as well as the lack or absence of suitable vacancies. It is noted that the acquired knowledge of employed graduates meets the requirements of employers and is sufficient to perform basic duties. The results of the assessment of retraining (overtraining) in the first year of work are reviewed.","PeriodicalId":85843,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy statistiki (Moscow, Russia : 1994)","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79159435","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Link Between Industry 4.0 and Sustainable Manufacturing: An Analysis of the Results of a Survey of Manufacturing Enterprises","authors":"I. Lola, M. Bakeev","doi":"10.34023/2313-6383-2022-29-6-44-58","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2022-29-6-44-58","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this paper is to empirically explore the potential link between the adoption of Industry 4.0 technologies in the manufacturing industry and the development of sustainable manufacturing, understood as the production of goods with the minimum use of energy and natural resources, while maintaining maximum profit and ensuring the health and safety of society throughout the product life cycle. The article first addresses 4 research questions, the first of which concerns a possible connection between the introduction of Industry 4.0 technologies and the presence of an ISO 14001 certificate in an industrial enterprise, considered as an indirect indicator of compliance with the principles of sustainable manufacturing, the second – the connection between the implementation of Industry 4.0 technologies and «green» industrial technologies, the third – the links between the introduction of Industry 4.0 technologies and the promotion of various specific areas of greening, and the fourth – the links between the introduction of digital technologies and the recognition of significant environmental benefits from the use of digital technologies in the enterprise. The analysis was based on quantified data from the annual market survey of the digital activity of Russian manufacturing enterprises for 2021, which includes a set of indicators characterizing technological and digital activity in the field of greening and increasing resource efficiency.The obtained results indicate that, although at the technological level, the relationship between the development in the field of Industry 4.0 and the field of «green» industrial technologies is quite unambiguous, from the viewpoint of the enterprise's compliance with the criteria for sustainable production, to a lesser extent, one can speak of the important role of Industry 4.0 technologies. The presence of environmental benefits from the introduction of digital technologies was more often noted by those respondents in whose enterprises artificial intelligence and big data technologies were introduced. The same technologies were recognized as the key technologies of Industry 4.0 for sustainable development, associated with the largest number of individual areas of greening production, according to the results of the study.","PeriodicalId":85843,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy statistiki (Moscow, Russia : 1994)","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76041749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Training of IT-Specialists in Russian Universities: Statistical Analysis","authors":"A. Melikyan","doi":"10.34023/2313-6383-2022-29-6-74-83","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2022-29-6-74-83","url":null,"abstract":"The article presents the results of a statistical analysis of trends in the change in the number of students studying in IT specialties in Russian higher educational institutions, and also, based on the econometric methods of data analysis, characterizes universities with a high number and a significant proportion of students studying in information technology programs. The novelty of this study, according to the author, lies in the fact that the calculations are made on the basis of a large sample taking into account changes in its dynamic characteristics (information on the activities of 611 universities and 467 university branches for 2015/2016, 2017/2018 and 2019/2020 academic years was studied).Statistical analysis showed that in Russia only a few universities specialize in training students for IT field. So, in the 2019/2020 academic year, more than 60% of students studied in IT specialties in nine higher educational institutions alone. At the same time, IT-specialists are trained in half of the universities and in a third of the country's university branches. Over the period from 2015/2016 to 2019/2020 academic year, the number of students enrolled in IT specialties has increased in Russia by 31%.The regression analysis of the data revealed a positive relationship between the indicators of the number of students in IT specialties in universities (total number, absolute increase in the number and their share in total student body) and the following indicators: share of young professionals in the total number of faculty members; number of partner enterprises; number of technology parks and small businesses in the university; income from research and development and number of publications in Scopus. A negative relationship is observed between the number of students in IT specialties and the share of persons with academic degrees in the total number of faculty members, as well as between the share of students in IT specialties in the total number of students and the indicators of internationalization of the composition of students and teaching staff.The proposed approach made it possible, on the basis of a representative sample of Russian higher education institutions, to assess the relationship between the indicators of the number of IT students at the university and the results of its activities in the areas considered, as well as to determine the characteristics of higher education institutions that made a significant contribution to the training of IT specialists.The results of the study presented in the article may be of interest to the universities that plan to significantly increase the number of students in the coming years and improve the quality of admission of applicants for training in IT specialties.","PeriodicalId":85843,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy statistiki (Moscow, Russia : 1994)","volume":"71 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80410270","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Directions of Statistical Study of the Implementation of Advanced Production Technologies in Russia","authors":"L. Umanets","doi":"10.34023/2313-6383-2022-29-6-59-73","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2022-29-6-59-73","url":null,"abstract":"The paper deals with certain aspects of the statistical study of how advanced production technologies are implemented at the present stage of scientific and technological progress in Russia. This matter is addressed from two perspectives: statistics on the development and use of advanced production technologies and statistics on stimulating the greatest possible return on the results of the introduction of advanced production technologies in the shortest period of time possible.The author formulates proposals to improve the system of accounting indicators by improving the quality of the selection of organizations that develop and use advanced production technologies, as well as the quality of accounting for unaccounted technologies at all levels of management. Recommendations are given for adjusting each of the main areas of use of the evaluation indicators, as well as improving the methodology for the formation of the evaluation indicators themselves, in particular, by applying a score to each of them.The statistics of advanced production technologies implementation is evaluated. Particular attention is paid to accounting for the formation of applications and their implementation in such areas as patent issuance, registration of trademarks and industrial designs. The article considers activity of the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) in the area of patent statistics.The author explains the need to gradually combine the two forms of statistical accounting – state (Rosstat) and WIPO statistics – into a single form, which will allow, at the early stages of development and use of technologies, to assess their quality and take appropriate measures to improve them.","PeriodicalId":85843,"journal":{"name":"Voprosy statistiki (Moscow, Russia : 1994)","volume":"78 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80055500","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}