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Simulating the effect of demographic events on the household composition 模拟人口统计事件对家庭构成的影响
Journal of the Australian Population Association Pub Date : 1992-11-01 DOI: 10.1007/BF03029368
K. Spicer, I. Diamond, M. N. Bhrolcháin
{"title":"Simulating the effect of demographic events on the household composition","authors":"K. Spicer, I. Diamond, M. N. Bhrolcháin","doi":"10.1007/BF03029368","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03029368","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":85026,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Australian Population Association","volume":"47 1","pages":"173-184"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1992-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79742582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Projections of households and household populations by household size propensities. 按家庭规模趋势预测家庭和家庭人口。
Journal of the Australian Population Association Pub Date : 1992-11-01 DOI: 10.1007/BF03029367
D S Ironmonger, C W Lloyd-smith
{"title":"Projections of households and household populations by household size propensities.","authors":"D S Ironmonger,&nbsp;C W Lloyd-smith","doi":"10.1007/BF03029367","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03029367","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>\"This paper describes a method for constructing projections of numbers of households of various types and the numbers of people in that structure. The method uses the concept of household size propensity.... Using data from the 1981 and 1986 Censuses and population projections to the year 2011, the method produces projections of Australian households and household populations by size of household for five-year intervals from 1991 to 2011.\"</p>","PeriodicalId":85026,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Australian Population Association","volume":"9 2","pages":"153-68"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1992-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1007/BF03029367","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"22014750","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 13
Projections and forecasts in Australia: The context 澳大利亚的预测和预测:背景
Journal of the Australian Population Association Pub Date : 1992-11-01 DOI: 10.1007/BF03029364
M. Bell
{"title":"Projections and forecasts in Australia: The context","authors":"M. Bell","doi":"10.1007/BF03029364","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03029364","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":85026,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Australian Population Association","volume":"46 1","pages":"103-107"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1992-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79108634","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
The Victorian population projection framework. 维多利亚人口预测框架。
Journal of the Australian Population Association Pub Date : 1992-11-01 DOI: 10.1007/BF03029366
P Davenport, J O'leary
{"title":"The Victorian population projection framework.","authors":"P Davenport,&nbsp;J O'leary","doi":"10.1007/BF03029366","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03029366","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>\"The Victorian Department of the Treasury has responsibility for preparation of demographic forecasts for use by state government departments and agencies. This paper provides a detailed description of the projection system and models developed by Treasury to produce population and household forecasts for the state, statistical divisions and Statistical Local Areas of Victoria [Australia]. Particular emphasis is given to use of a 'tops down' approach to integrate projections at different geographic levels, methods of reconciling forecasts of household growth with land supply and techniques used to project the inter-SLA migration flows in a multi-regional cohort-component framework.\"</p>","PeriodicalId":85026,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Australian Population Association","volume":"9 2","pages":"131-52"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1992-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1007/BF03029366","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"22014749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Labour market forecasting in Australia: the science of the art. 澳大利亚劳动力市场预测:科学的艺术。
Journal of the Australian Population Association Pub Date : 1992-11-01 DOI: 10.1007/BF03029369
E M Webster
{"title":"Labour market forecasting in Australia: the science of the art.","authors":"E M Webster","doi":"10.1007/BF03029369","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03029369","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>\"This article, which is written for the non-economist, overviews recent attempts at labour market forecasting in Australia and summarizes contemporary views on their contribution towards enhancing the efficiency of the Australian labour market. Current methods of forecasting are described and assessed purely from a theoretical perspective. The paper does not attempt to assess the accuracy or otherwise of Australian labour market forecasts....\"</p>","PeriodicalId":85026,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Australian Population Association","volume":"9 2","pages":"185-205"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1992-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1007/BF03029369","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"22014752","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Forecast accuracy of Australian subnational population projections. 澳大利亚地方人口预测的准确性。
Journal of the Australian Population Association Pub Date : 1992-11-01 DOI: 10.1007/BF03029370
M Bell, J Skinner
{"title":"Forecast accuracy of Australian subnational population projections.","authors":"M Bell,&nbsp;J Skinner","doi":"10.1007/BF03029370","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03029370","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The authors assess demographic projections made over the last 20 years for Australia. \"This paper first considers the role of accuracy amongst other objectives of projection activity. Accepting accuracy as a legitimate goal, we then assess the performance of 48 sets of population projections and forecasts for states and territories of Australia prepared since 1970. Projection accuracy is assessed by reference to length of forecast horizon, population size and rate of growth. We also examine the main sources of forecast error in selected projections for each state and compare the performance of past projections with alternatives based on simple extrapolation of contemporary population trends.\"</p>","PeriodicalId":85026,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Australian Population Association","volume":"9 2","pages":"207-35"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1992-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1007/BF03029370","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"22014753","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
The ABS population projections: overview and evaluation. 澳大利亚统计局人口预测:概述和评估。
Journal of the Australian Population Association Pub Date : 1992-11-01 DOI: 10.1007/BF03029365
A Y Adam
{"title":"The ABS population projections: overview and evaluation.","authors":"A Y Adam","doi":"10.1007/BF03029365","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03029365","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>\"This paper provides a brief history of the ABS [Australian Bureau of Statistics] projection [service] in the context of its role as the central statistical agency in Australia. It also presents an overview of the methodology used for generating the projections and details the procedures used for compiling the various components of change incorporated in the projections. The accuracy of the ABS past projections is assessed by comparing their results, both at the national and state/territory levels, with corresponding estimated resident population figures. The paper also describes the range of projection services currently provided by the ABS, lists present unmet needs and indicates some of the developments likely to occur in the future in satisfying unmet demand, consolidation of existing services and dissemination of output.\" The evaluation concerns the period from 1978 to the present.</p>","PeriodicalId":85026,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Australian Population Association","volume":"9 2","pages":"109-30"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1992-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1007/BF03029365","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"22014748","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 11
Simulating the effect of demographic events on the household composition. 模拟人口统计事件对家庭构成的影响。
Journal of the Australian Population Association Pub Date : 1992-11-01
K Spicer, I Diamond, M Ni Bhrolchain
{"title":"Simulating the effect of demographic events on the household composition.","authors":"K Spicer,&nbsp;I Diamond,&nbsp;M Ni Bhrolchain","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>\"The aim of this paper is to measure the effects on household composition of changes in demographic events, e.g. mortality, fertility, marriage, divorce. British household data are taken from the General Household Survey and aged by simulation to 2001 using a 'Most Likely' model. Subsequently different assumptions of each demographic event are taken from 1991 so that the effects of perturbations within each event can be studied. Special features of the simulation model are the differentiations between cohabitation and marriage and separation and divorce, and the detailed breakdowns of household types such as lone parents into single and previously married women and men with children aged 0-4, 5-15 and 16 and over.\"</p>","PeriodicalId":85026,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Australian Population Association","volume":"9 2","pages":"178-84"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1992-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"22014751","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Aboriginal migration and labour market programs. 土著移民和劳动力市场计划。
Journal of the Australian Population Association Pub Date : 1992-05-01 DOI: 10.1007/BF03029549
J Taylor
{"title":"Aboriginal migration and labour market programs.","authors":"J Taylor","doi":"10.1007/BF03029549","DOIUrl":"10.1007/BF03029549","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>\"Despite the potential for government employment policies both to encourage and preclude migration among the Aboriginal workforce, little is known about the impacts of such policies. This paper seeks to construct a base line for identifying these impacts by establishing the spatial structure of labour migration among the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population. It makes use of 1986 Census data to describe the volume and pattern of net and gross flows of working-age Aborigines and Islanders through the national settlement system, distinguishing between movements in remote and closely settled parts of the country. Full determination of the links between policy and migration flows awaits comparison with 1991 Census results.\"</p>","PeriodicalId":85026,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Australian Population Association","volume":"9 1","pages":"53-71"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1992-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"22038058","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Book reviews and bibliography 书评和参考书目
Journal of the Australian Population Association Pub Date : 1992-05-01 DOI: 10.1007/BF03029551
Dave L. Crawford
{"title":"Book reviews and bibliography","authors":"Dave L. Crawford","doi":"10.1007/BF03029551","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03029551","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":85026,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Australian Population Association","volume":"1 1","pages":"93-98"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1992-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88841628","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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