Katie Buchhorn, Kerrie Mengersen, Edgar Santos-Fernandez, Erin E Peterson, James M McGree
{"title":"Bayesian design with sampling windows for complex spatial processes","authors":"Katie Buchhorn, Kerrie Mengersen, Edgar Santos-Fernandez, Erin E Peterson, James M McGree","doi":"10.1093/jrsssc/qlad099","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssc/qlad099","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Optimal design facilitates intelligent data collection. In this paper, we introduce a fully Bayesian design approach for spatial processes with complex covariance structures, like those typically exhibited in natural ecosystems. Coordinate exchange algorithms are commonly used to find optimal design points. However, collecting data at specific points is often infeasible in practice. Currently, there is no provision to allow for flexibility in the choice of design. Accordingly, we also propose an approach to find Bayesian sampling windows, rather than points, via Gaussian process emulation to identify regions of high design efficiency across a multi-dimensional space. These developments are motivated by two ecological case studies: monitoring water temperature in a river network system in the northwestern United States and monitoring submerged coral reefs off the north-west coast of Australia.","PeriodicalId":84181,"journal":{"name":"Applied statistics","volume":" 6","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135291344","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Anaïs Rouanet, Rob Johnson, Magdalena E Strauss, Sylvia Richardson, Brian D Tom, Simon R White, Paul D W Kirk
{"title":"Bayesian profile regression for clustering analysis involving a longitudinal response and explanatory variables","authors":"Anaïs Rouanet, Rob Johnson, Magdalena E Strauss, Sylvia Richardson, Brian D Tom, Simon R White, Paul D W Kirk","doi":"10.1093/jrsssc/qlad097","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssc/qlad097","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The identification of sets of co-regulated genes that share a common function is a key question of modern genomics. Bayesian profile regression is a semi-supervised mixture modelling approach that makes use of a response to guide inference toward relevant clusterings. Previous applications of profile regression have considered univariate continuous, categorical, and count outcomes. In this work, we extend Bayesian profile regression to cases where the outcome is longitudinal (or multivariate continuous) and provide PReMiuMlongi, an updated version of PReMiuM, the R package for profile regression. We consider multivariate normal and Gaussian process regression response models and provide proof of principle applications to four simulation studies. The model is applied on budding-yeast data to identify groups of genes co-regulated during the Saccharomyces cerevisiae cell cycle. We identify four distinct groups of genes associated with specific patterns of gene expression trajectories, along with the bound transcriptional factors, likely involved in their co-regulation process.","PeriodicalId":84181,"journal":{"name":"Applied statistics","volume":" 48","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135292695","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Penalised semi-parametric copula method for semi-competing risks data: application to hip fracture in elderly","authors":"Tao Sun, Weijie Liang, Gongzi Zhang, Danhui Yi, Ying Ding, Lihai Zhang","doi":"10.1093/jrsssc/qlad093","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssc/qlad093","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Hip fracture is a severe complication in the elderly. The affected people are at a higher risk of second fracture and death occurrence, and the best treatment for hip fractures is still being debated. Aside from the treatment, many factors, such as comorbidity conditions, may be associated with second fracture and death occurrence. This study aims to identify effective treatments and important covariates and estimate their effects on the progression of second fracture and death occurrence in hip fracture elderly patients using the semi-competing risks framework, because death dependently censors a second fracture but not vice versa. Due to the complex semi-competing risks data, performing variable selection simultaneously for second fracture and death occurrence is difficult. We propose a penalised semi-parametric copula method for semi-competing risks data. Specifically, we use separate Cox semi-parametric models for both margins and employ a copula to model the two margins’ dependence. We develop a coordinate-wise optimisation algorithm that takes into account the data structure and copula function’s complexities. Simulations show that the proposed method outperforms the traditional penalised marginal method. We apply the proposed method to a population-based cohort study of hip fracture elderly patients, providing new insights into their treatment and clinical management.","PeriodicalId":84181,"journal":{"name":"Applied statistics","volume":"123 20","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135541994","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Santhosh Narayanan, Ioannis Kosmidis, Petros Dellaportas
{"title":"Authors’ reply to the Discussion of “Flexible marked spatio-temporal point process with applications to event sequences from association football” by Narayanan, Kosmidis and Dellaportas","authors":"Santhosh Narayanan, Ioannis Kosmidis, Petros Dellaportas","doi":"10.1093/jrsssc/qlad101","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssc/qlad101","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":84181,"journal":{"name":"Applied statistics","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135874861","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Joanne Ellison, Ann Berrington, Erengul Dodd, Jonathan J Forster
{"title":"Combining individual- and population-level data to develop a Bayesian parity-specific fertility projection model","authors":"Joanne Ellison, Ann Berrington, Erengul Dodd, Jonathan J Forster","doi":"10.1093/jrsssc/qlad095","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssc/qlad095","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Fertility projections are vital to anticipate demand for maternity and childcare services, among other uses. Models typically use aggregate population-level data alone, ignoring the richness of individual-level data. We hence develop a Bayesian parity-specific projection model combining such data sources. We apply our method to England and Wales, using individual-level data from Understanding Society. Fitting generalised additive models gives smooth projections across age, cohort, and time since last birth. We also incorporate prior beliefs about the relative importance of the data sources. Our approach generates plausible forecasts by individual-level variables including educational qualification, despite their absence in the population-level data.","PeriodicalId":84181,"journal":{"name":"Applied statistics","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135874065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Horseshoe prior Bayesian quantile regression","authors":"David Kohns, Tibor Szendrei","doi":"10.1093/jrsssc/qlad091","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssc/qlad091","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper extends the horseshoe prior to Bayesian quantile regression and provides a fast sampling algorithm for computation in high dimensions. Compared to alternative shrinkage priors, our method yields better performance in coefficient bias and forecast error, especially in sparse designs and in estimating extreme quantiles. In a high-dimensional growth-at-risk forecasting application, we forecast tail risks and complete forecast densities using a database covering over 200 macroeconomic variables. Quantile specific and density calibration score functions show that our method provides competitive performance compared to competing Bayesian quantile regression priors, especially at short- and medium-run horizons.","PeriodicalId":84181,"journal":{"name":"Applied statistics","volume":"19 3","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135874954","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Zeyu Bian, Erica E M Moodie, Susan M Shortreed, Sylvie D Lambert, Sahir Bhatnagar
{"title":"Variable selection for individualised treatment rules with discrete outcomes","authors":"Zeyu Bian, Erica E M Moodie, Susan M Shortreed, Sylvie D Lambert, Sahir Bhatnagar","doi":"10.1093/jrsssc/qlad096","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssc/qlad096","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract An individualised treatment rule (ITR) is a decision rule that aims to improve individuals’ health outcomes by recommending treatments according to subject-specific information. In observational studies, collected data may contain many variables that are irrelevant to treatment decisions. Including all variables in an ITR could yield low efficiency and a complicated treatment rule that is difficult to implement. Thus, selecting variables to improve the treatment rule is crucial. We propose a doubly robust variable selection method for ITRs, and show that it compares favourably with competing approaches. We illustrate the proposed method on data from an adaptive, web-based stress management tool.","PeriodicalId":84181,"journal":{"name":"Applied statistics","volume":"63 6","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135975492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Statistical inference for complete and incomplete mobility trajectories under the flight-pause model","authors":"Marcin Jurek, Catherine A Calder, Corwin Zigler","doi":"10.1093/jrsssc/qlad090","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssc/qlad090","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We formulate a statistical flight-pause model (FPM) for human mobility, represented by a collection of random objects, called motions, appropriate for mobile phone tracking (MPT) data. We develop the statistical machinery for parameter inference and trajectory imputation under various forms of missing data. We show that common assumptions about the missing data mechanism for MPT are not valid for the mechanism governing the random motions underlying the FPM, representing an understudied missing data phenomenon. We demonstrate the consequences of missing data and our proposed adjustments in both simulations and real data, outlining implications for MPT data collection and design.","PeriodicalId":84181,"journal":{"name":"Applied statistics","volume":"85 6","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135975100","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Causal inference with a functional outcome","authors":"Kreske Ecker, Xavier de Luna, Lina Schelin","doi":"10.1093/jrsssc/qlad092","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssc/qlad092","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article presents methods to study the causal effect of a binary treatment on a functional outcome with observational data. We define a Functional Average Treatment Effect (FATE) and develop an outcome regression estimator. We show how to obtain valid inference on the FATE using simultaneous confidence bands, which cover the FATE with a given probability over the entire domain. Simulation experiments illustrate how the simultaneous confidence bands take the multiple comparison problem into account. Finally, we use the methods to infer the effect of early adult location on subsequent income development for one Swedish birth cohort.","PeriodicalId":84181,"journal":{"name":"Applied statistics","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134908389","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Categorising the world into local climate zones: towards quantifying labelling uncertainty for machine learning models","authors":"Katharina Hechinger, Xiao Xiang Zhu, Göran Kauermann","doi":"10.1093/jrsssc/qlad089","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssc/qlad089","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Image classification is often prone to labelling uncertainty. To generate suitable training data, images are labelled according to evaluations of human experts. This can result in ambiguities, which will affect subsequent models. In this work, we aim to model the labelling uncertainty in the context of remote sensing and the classification of satellite images. We construct a multinomial mixture model given the evaluations of multiple experts. This is based on the assumption that there is no ambiguity of the image class, but apparently in the experts’ opinion about it. The model parameters can be estimated by a stochastic expectation maximisation algorithm. Analysing the estimates gives insights into sources of label uncertainty. Here, we focus on the general class ambiguity, the heterogeneity of experts, and the origin city of the images. The results are relevant for all machine learning applications where image classification is pursued and labelling is subject to humans.","PeriodicalId":84181,"journal":{"name":"Applied statistics","volume":"124 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136062630","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}