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The Statistician : journal of the Institute of Statisticians最新文献

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Some remarks on statistical education 关于统计教育的几点意见
The Statistician : journal of the Institute of Statisticians Pub Date : 1998-04-01 DOI: 10.1111/1467-9884.00125
D. Cox
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引用次数: 13
An introduction to Bayesian reference analysis: inference on the ratio of multinomial parameters 介绍贝叶斯参考分析:多项参数比值的推断
The Statistician : journal of the Institute of Statisticians Pub Date : 1998-04-01 DOI: 10.1111/1467-9884.00118
J. Bernardo, José Ramón
{"title":"An introduction to Bayesian reference analysis: inference on the ratio of multinomial parameters","authors":"J. Bernardo, José Ramón","doi":"10.1111/1467-9884.00118","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9884.00118","url":null,"abstract":"This paper offers an introduction to Bayesian reference analysis, often described as the more successful method to produce non-subjective, model-based, posterior distributions. The ideas are illustrated in detail with an interesting problem, the ratio of multinomial parameters, for which no model-based Bayesian analysis has been proposed. Signposts are provided to the huge related literature.","PeriodicalId":83973,"journal":{"name":"The Statistician : journal of the Institute of Statisticians","volume":"27 1","pages":"101-135"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1998-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82125681","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 85
Markov chain Monte Carlo method and its application 马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗方法及其应用
The Statistician : journal of the Institute of Statisticians Pub Date : 1998-04-01 DOI: 10.1111/1467-9884.00117
Stephen P. Brooks
{"title":"Markov chain Monte Carlo method and its application","authors":"Stephen P. Brooks","doi":"10.1111/1467-9884.00117","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9884.00117","url":null,"abstract":"The Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, as a computer-intensive statistical tool, has enjoyed an enormous upsurge in interest over the last few years. This paper provides a simple, comprehensive and tutorial review of some of the most common areas of research in this field. We begin by discussing how MCMC algorithms can be constructed from standard building-blocks to produce Markov chains with the desired stationary distribution. We also motivate and discuss more complex ideas that have been proposed in the literature, such as continuous time and dimension jumping methods. We discuss some implementational issues associated with MCMC methods. We take a look at the arguments for and against multiple replications, consider how long chains should be run for and how to determine suitable starting points. We also take a look at graphical models and how graphical approaches can be used to simplify MCMC implementation. Finally, we present a couple of examples, which we use as case-studies to highlight some of the points made earlier in the text. In particular, we use a simple changepoint model to illustrate how to tackle a typical Bayesian modelling problem via the MCMC method, before using mixture model problems to provide illustrations of good sampler output and of the implementation of a reversible jump MCMC algorithm.","PeriodicalId":83973,"journal":{"name":"The Statistician : journal of the Institute of Statisticians","volume":"38 1","pages":"69-100"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1998-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88362487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 796
Experiences in elicitation 启发经验
The Statistician : journal of the Institute of Statisticians Pub Date : 1998-04-01 DOI: 10.1111/1467-9884.00113
J. Kadane, L. J. Wolfson
{"title":"Experiences in elicitation","authors":"J. Kadane, L. J. Wolfson","doi":"10.1111/1467-9884.00113","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9884.00113","url":null,"abstract":"Summary. Elicitation of expert opinion is becoming increasingly important in the elicitation of prior distributions. In this paper, the psychology of elicitation and the currently available methods are briefly reviewed, but the primary discussion is on the distinction between 'general' elicitation methods for a class of problems and 'application-specific' methods which are useful only once. Examples of both types of elicitation are given, along with a discussion about general versus application-specific methods, and predictive versus structural elicitation.","PeriodicalId":83973,"journal":{"name":"The Statistician : journal of the Institute of Statisticians","volume":"90 1","pages":"3-19"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1998-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80409951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 389
Constructing partial prior specifications for models of complex physical systems 构建复杂物理系统模型的部分先验规范
The Statistician : journal of the Institute of Statisticians Pub Date : 1998-04-01 DOI: 10.1111/1467-9884.00115
P. Craig, M. Goldstein, A. Seheult, James A. Smith
{"title":"Constructing partial prior specifications for models of complex physical systems","authors":"P. Craig, M. Goldstein, A. Seheult, James A. Smith","doi":"10.1111/1467-9884.00115","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9884.00115","url":null,"abstract":"Summary. Many large scale problems, particularly in the physical sciences, are solved using complex, high dimensional models whose outputs, for a given set of inputs, are expensive and time consuming to evaluate. The complexity of such problems forces us to focus attention on those limited aspects of uncertainty which are directly relevant to the tasks for which the model will be used. We discuss methods for constructing the relevant partial prior specifications for these uncertainties, based on the prior covariance structure. Our approach combines two sources of prior knowledge. First, we elicit both qualitative and quantitative prior information based on expert prior judgments, using computer-based elicitation tools for organizing the complex collection of assessments in a systematic way. Secondly, we test and refine these judgments using detailed experiments based on versions of the model which are cheaper to evaluate. Although the approach is quite general, we illustrate it in the context of matching hydrocarbon reservoir history.","PeriodicalId":83973,"journal":{"name":"The Statistician : journal of the Institute of Statisticians","volume":"42 10 1","pages":"37-53"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1998-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82856579","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 73
A multilevel model for infant health outcomes: maternal risk factors and geographic variation 婴儿健康结果的多层次模型:产妇风险因素和地理差异
The Statistician : journal of the Institute of Statisticians Pub Date : 1998-04-01 DOI: 10.1111/1467-9884.00121
Peter Congdon
{"title":"A multilevel model for infant health outcomes: maternal risk factors and geographic variation","authors":"Peter Congdon","doi":"10.1111/1467-9884.00121","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9884.00121","url":null,"abstract":"This paper considers the interaction between place of residence and maternal characteristics for infant health outcomes. It illustrates how indices of performance specified in terms of the varying incidence of adverse events or the effect of maternal risk on such outcomes may be sensitive to sampling unreliability, and how this may be clarified in a Bayesian analysis. An adjustment for sampling errors, together with a correction for the interplay of various risk factors and the effect of area deprivation, may considerably modify impressions of relative performance gained from comparing simple perinatal mortality rates.","PeriodicalId":83973,"journal":{"name":"The Statistician : journal of the Institute of Statisticians","volume":"32 1","pages":"159-182"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1998-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81025367","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 10
Comparing measures of sample skewness and kurtosis 比较样本偏度和峰度的度量
The Statistician : journal of the Institute of Statisticians Pub Date : 1998-04-01 DOI: 10.1111/1467-9884.00122
D. Joanes, C. Gill
{"title":"Comparing measures of sample skewness and kurtosis","authors":"D. Joanes, C. Gill","doi":"10.1111/1467-9884.00122","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9884.00122","url":null,"abstract":"Over the years, various measures of sample skewness and kurtosis have been proposed. Comparisons are made between those measures adopted by well-known statistical computing packages, focusing on bias and mean-squared error for normal samples, and presenting some comparisons from simulation results for non-normal samples.","PeriodicalId":83973,"journal":{"name":"The Statistician : journal of the Institute of Statisticians","volume":"7 1","pages":"183-189"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1998-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74560013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 915
Estimating the prevalence of a rare disease: adjusted maximum likelihood 估计罕见病的流行:调整最大似然
The Statistician : journal of the Institute of Statisticians Pub Date : 1998-04-01 DOI: 10.1111/1467-9884.00120
E. Rahme, L. Joseph
{"title":"Estimating the prevalence of a rare disease: adjusted maximum likelihood","authors":"E. Rahme, L. Joseph","doi":"10.1111/1467-9884.00120","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9884.00120","url":null,"abstract":"A common problem in medical research is to estimate the prevalence of a disease, i.e. to determine the proportion of individuals with the disease in a given population at a particular point in time. This can be accomplished by applying a diagnostic test to a sample of subjects from the target population. When an error-free test is not available, one must take into account the potential for misclassification errors to avoid misleading results. In this paper we suggest a new adjustment to the standard maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the prevalence, useful in the common situation when the MLE equals 0. Results of simulations are presented to compare the new estimator with the standard MLE. We also comment on confidence intervals and sample size determination for these situations.","PeriodicalId":83973,"journal":{"name":"The Statistician : journal of the Institute of Statisticians","volume":"447 1","pages":"149-158"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1998-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82907325","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 28
The application of structural equation modelling to the construction of an index for the measurement of health-related behaviours 结构方程模型在健康相关行为测量指标构建中的应用
The Statistician : journal of the Institute of Statisticians Pub Date : 1997-12-01 DOI: 10.1111/1467-9884.00104
D. Boniface, Margaret E. Tefft
{"title":"The application of structural equation modelling to the construction of an index for the measurement of health-related behaviours","authors":"D. Boniface, Margaret E. Tefft","doi":"10.1111/1467-9884.00104","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9884.00104","url":null,"abstract":"It is useful for ease of interpretation of health survey data to have the use of a single dimension or index which represents the healthiness of the behaviour patterns of the population. At issue are the methods for deriving the dimension or index. Two methods, structural equation modelling and the more standard multiple-regression approach, were used to develop models for both cross-sectional and longitudinal data from a health and life style survey. The potential of these approaches to explain subsequent health outcomes is considered.","PeriodicalId":83973,"journal":{"name":"The Statistician : journal of the Institute of Statisticians","volume":"67 1","pages":"505-514"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1997-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82610751","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 17
Measuring the effectiveness of playing strategies at soccer 测量足球比赛策略的有效性
The Statistician : journal of the Institute of Statisticians Pub Date : 1997-12-01 DOI: 10.1111/1467-9884.00108
R. Pollard, C. Reep
{"title":"Measuring the effectiveness of playing strategies at soccer","authors":"R. Pollard, C. Reep","doi":"10.1111/1467-9884.00108","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9884.00108","url":null,"abstract":"Using a notational system which records on-the-ball events taking place throughout a soccer match, the game can be broken down into a series of team possessions. To assess the effectiveness of a team possession, a quantitative variable is developed representing the probability of a goal being scored, minus the probability of one being conceded. This variable, called the yield, can be used to evaluate both the expected outcome of a team possession originating in a given situation, as well as the actual outcome of the possession. In this way, the effectiveness of different strategies occurring during the possession can be quantified and compared.","PeriodicalId":83973,"journal":{"name":"The Statistician : journal of the Institute of Statisticians","volume":"205 1","pages":"541-550"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1997-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74563569","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 140
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