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John Maynard Keynes and the French Connection 约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯与法国联系
The Manchester school of economic and social studies Pub Date : 1997-09-01 DOI: 10.1111/1467-9957.00075
P. Bridel, J. Presley
{"title":"John Maynard Keynes and the French Connection","authors":"P. Bridel, J. Presley","doi":"10.1111/1467-9957.00075","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9957.00075","url":null,"abstract":"Very little is known of the influence of overseas economists upon the work of John Maynard Keynes. In this paper, the authors examine how Keynes changed his views as a result of his correspondence with Marcel Labordere over the period from 1911 to 1945. They focus upon a number of areas, including monetary statistics and the psychology of the speculator, the business cycle, and The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. Copyright 1997 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester","PeriodicalId":83172,"journal":{"name":"The Manchester school of economic and social studies","volume":"72 1","pages":"452-465"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1997-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84496628","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
The Extent of Departures from Debt Neutrality When Future Income is Uncertain 未来收入不确定时偏离债务中性的程度
The Manchester school of economic and social studies Pub Date : 1997-09-01 DOI: 10.1111/1467-9957.00071
J. Pemberton
{"title":"The Extent of Departures from Debt Neutrality When Future Income is Uncertain","authors":"J. Pemberton","doi":"10.1111/1467-9957.00071","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9957.00071","url":null,"abstract":"This paper uses a model of stochastic consumption behavior over the life cycle to reconsider earlier conclusions by R. B. Barsky, N. G. Mankiw and S. P. Zeldes (1986) and R. J. Barro (1989) about the extent to which income uncertainty can induce departures from pure debt neutrality. Its results suggest that Barro understates, and Barksy, Mankiw, and Zeldes overstate, the importance of income uncertainty in this context. Copyright 1997 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester","PeriodicalId":83172,"journal":{"name":"The Manchester school of economic and social studies","volume":"15 4","pages":"394-410"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1997-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1111/1467-9957.00071","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72474452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Inflation: Too Much Money or Too Much Credit? 通货膨胀:货币过多还是信贷过多?
The Manchester school of economic and social studies Pub Date : 1997-09-01 DOI: 10.1111/1467-9957.00072
K. Matthews, C. Ioannidis
{"title":"Inflation: Too Much Money or Too Much Credit?","authors":"K. Matthews, C. Ioannidis","doi":"10.1111/1467-9957.00072","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9957.00072","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a vector autoregression type model of inflation, output growth, money and credit. We find that monetary shocks affect the mean of inflation but that credit shocks influence the time variance of inflation.","PeriodicalId":83172,"journal":{"name":"The Manchester school of economic and social studies","volume":"68 1","pages":"411-426"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1997-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91388877","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Business Conditions and Speculative Assets 经营条件和投机资产
The Manchester school of economic and social studies Pub Date : 1997-09-01 DOI: 10.1111/1467-9957.00070
Angela J. Black, P. Fraser, R. MacDonald
{"title":"Business Conditions and Speculative Assets","authors":"Angela J. Black, P. Fraser, R. MacDonald","doi":"10.1111/1467-9957.00070","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9957.00070","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the hypothesis that the predictable components of U.K. shares and bonds are related to business conditions. Financial market variables, such as maturity and default premia, are constructed in an attempt to capture different components of business-conditions risk. The hypothesis is investigated using multivariate regression analysis and a latent variable model. One of the main conclusions reached in this paper is that the time-varying component of U.K. share and bond excess returns tend to exhibit varying degrees of sensitivity to information on business conditions as captured ex ante by a number of financial variables. Copyright 1997 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester","PeriodicalId":83172,"journal":{"name":"The Manchester school of economic and social studies","volume":"60 1","pages":"379-393"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1997-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88024015","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 23
Expected Aggregate Demand, the Production Period and the Keynesian Theory of Aggregate Supply 预期总需求、生产周期与凯恩斯总供给理论
The Manchester school of economic and social studies Pub Date : 1997-06-01 DOI: 10.1057/9780230374126_5
T. Palley
{"title":"Expected Aggregate Demand, the Production Period and the Keynesian Theory of Aggregate Supply","authors":"T. Palley","doi":"10.1057/9780230374126_5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230374126_5","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":83172,"journal":{"name":"The Manchester school of economic and social studies","volume":"14 1","pages":"295-309"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1997-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76972542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 12
M0: Causes and Consequences 原因和结果
The Manchester school of economic and social studies Pub Date : 1996-12-01 DOI: 10.1111/J.1467-9957.1996.TB00493.X
Francis Breedon, P. Fisher
{"title":"M0: Causes and Consequences","authors":"Francis Breedon, P. Fisher","doi":"10.1111/J.1467-9957.1996.TB00493.X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1467-9957.1996.TB00493.X","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyses four aspects of the determination and effects of M0 using annual, quarterly and monthly data. First it analyses the issue of the correct scale variable for determining M0. A combination of survey evidence and statistical tests indicate that retail sales is the most appropriate scale variable to use in looking at M0. Second, the paper looks at the best way to explain the trend in M0 velocity. It confirms earlier results showing that a cumulative interest rate term gives an adequate representation of the trend and is better than a linear time trend for this purpose. Third, the paper looks at the short-run interest elasticity of demand for M0. It finds that this elasticity is highly variable across models and suggests that the analysis of M0 is problematic following substantial changes in interest rates. Lastly, and probably most controvertially it looks at the leading indicators of properties in M0 for inflation. It finds that these are particularly robust and cannot be matched simply by the product of the explanatory terms in the M0 equation. Although this result is implicit in previous work done in the Bank (eg 'VAR models of inflation' Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, May 1993) this paper makes an explicit empirical link between M0 and inflation.","PeriodicalId":83172,"journal":{"name":"The Manchester school of economic and social studies","volume":"75 1","pages":"371-387"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1996-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90273974","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 21
A Box-Cox Double-Hurdle Model Box-Cox双栏模型
The Manchester school of economic and social studies Pub Date : 1994-10-26 DOI: 10.1920/WP.IFS.1994.9406
Andrew M. Jones, S. Yen
{"title":"A Box-Cox Double-Hurdle Model","authors":"Andrew M. Jones, S. Yen","doi":"10.1920/WP.IFS.1994.9406","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1920/WP.IFS.1994.9406","url":null,"abstract":"The double-hurdle model with dependence is extended by incorporating the Box-Cox transformation. The model nests a range of popular limited dependent variable models, including the Gaussian double-hurdle, the generalized Tobit, and two-part models. Estimates of US beef consumption suggest that the Box-Cox specification outperforms all other restrictive models. Price elasticities are small and similar to findings in the literature. Household age composition and demographic variables also play significant roles in determining beef consumption. Income and cross-price elasticities are insignificant. Copyright 2000 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester","PeriodicalId":83172,"journal":{"name":"The Manchester school of economic and social studies","volume":"59 1","pages":"203-221"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1994-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91007585","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 88
ON THE EXCHANGE RATE OF THE DOLLAR: MARKET FUNDAMENTALS VERSUS SPECULATIVE BUBBLES 美元汇率:市场基本面与投机泡沫
The Manchester school of economic and social studies Pub Date : 1993-06-01 DOI: 10.1111/J.1467-9957.1993.TB00230.X
Nikitas Pittis
{"title":"ON THE EXCHANGE RATE OF THE DOLLAR: MARKET FUNDAMENTALS VERSUS SPECULATIVE BUBBLES","authors":"Nikitas Pittis","doi":"10.1111/J.1467-9957.1993.TB00230.X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1467-9957.1993.TB00230.X","url":null,"abstract":"This paper carries out indirect tests for stochastic exchange rate bubbles in the context of a Dornbusch-type monetary model by comparing the order of integrability and examining the conintegrability between exchange rates and variables in the fundamentals. Special emphasis is given to the period of sharp appreciation of the dollar, January 1981 to February 1985. In two out of the three rates examined in this paper, the null no-bubbles hypothesis cannot be rejected by any of the tests when some possible sources of model misspecification are taken into account. Copyright 1993 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester","PeriodicalId":83172,"journal":{"name":"The Manchester school of economic and social studies","volume":"246 1","pages":"167-184"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1993-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76183487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Testing a Flow Model of Capital Flight in Five European Countries 欧洲五国资本外逃流动模型的检验
The Manchester school of economic and social studies Pub Date : 1993-06-01 DOI: 10.1111/J.1467-9957.1993.TB00229.X
H. Gibson, E. Tsakalotos
{"title":"Testing a Flow Model of Capital Flight in Five European Countries","authors":"H. Gibson, E. Tsakalotos","doi":"10.1111/J.1467-9957.1993.TB00229.X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1467-9957.1993.TB00229.X","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the problem of capital flight in Europe. The authors calculate the volume of capital flight experienced by five European countries--France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain--and discuss its importance. A model of the short-run determinants of capital flight is developed, which places particular emphasis on factors reflecting uncertainty, and is then tested.for the five countries. Political risk and expected depreciation were significant for all countries and, in addition, rates of return were significant in the case of Portugal and Spain. The authors conclude by discussing the implications of these results for the process of European integration. Copyright 1993 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester","PeriodicalId":83172,"journal":{"name":"The Manchester school of economic and social studies","volume":"79 1","pages":"144-166"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1993-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88988790","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 53
Continuous Switching of Techniques in Linear Production Models 线性生产模型中技术的连续切换
The Manchester school of economic and social studies Pub Date : 1993-06-01 DOI: 10.1111/J.1467-9957.1993.TB00231.X
E. Bellino
{"title":"Continuous Switching of Techniques in Linear Production Models","authors":"E. Bellino","doi":"10.1111/J.1467-9957.1993.TB00231.X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/J.1467-9957.1993.TB00231.X","url":null,"abstract":"In linear production models, a switching of technique consists, in general, of a discontinuous variation of a plurality of technical coefficients and of the capital/labor ratio. This result has often been claimed to hold only with discrete technologies; when techniques crowd indefinitely along the wage-profit frontier this approximates to traditional smooth behavior. This conjecture is disproved in this article: in general, technical coefficients and the capital/labor ratio vary discontinuously, either with a discrete or with a continuum spectrum of techniques along the wage-profit frontier. Copyright 1993 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester","PeriodicalId":83172,"journal":{"name":"The Manchester school of economic and social studies","volume":"33 1","pages":"185-201"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1993-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87253933","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 12
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