Applied Econometrics最新文献_第3页

Estimating the effect of Russia’s development policy in the Far Eastern region: The synthetic control approach 评估俄罗斯远东地区发展政策的效果:综合控制方法

Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2023-72-58-72

Alexander Goryunov, Elena Ageshina, Igor Lavrentev, Polina Peretyatko

{"title":"Estimating the effect of Russia’s development policy in the Far Eastern region: The synthetic control approach","authors":"Alexander Goryunov, Elena Ageshina, Igor Lavrentev, Polina Peretyatko","doi":"10.22394/1993-7601-2023-72-58-72","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22394/1993-7601-2023-72-58-72","url":null,"abstract":"In 2014 Russian government enacted an ambitious policy of the “accelerated development” of the Far East. A number of special legal provisions, tax incentives and investment programs have been introduced as part of that policy. Several studies have since attempted to estimate the impact of the policy on the region’s economy using intertemporal or interregional comparisons of outcomes, with most studies finding there to be no significant impact. We use the synthetic control method to arrive at a quantitative estimate of the policy’s effect on the real per capita GRP of the Far East in 2014–2019. Using a pool of 59 regions to construct a counterfactual baseline and controlling for the overall level of higher education, share of the raw materials industry, share of investment in GRP and the share of working age population, we estimate that the policy had resulted in the creation of around 93 billion rubles of additional GRP in the Far East during 2014–2019. We also propose a procedure for estimating the statistical significance of the result in the case when Fischer’s Exact Test, which is normally used with synthetic controls, is not applicable due to the composition of the treated object. Using our proposed procedure, we find that our estimate of the policy’s effect is statistically significant at the 5% level.","PeriodicalId":8045,"journal":{"name":"Applied Econometrics","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135446987","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Modeling the risk premium in the Russian stock market considering the asymmetry effect 考虑不对称效应的俄罗斯股票市场风险溢价模型

Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2023-71-5-19

Juri Trifonov

引用次数: 0

Application of Markov-Switching MIDAS models to nowcasting of GDP and its components 马尔可夫切换MIDAS模型在GDP及其组成部分临近预测中的应用

Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2023-70-122-143

I. Stankevich

引用次数: 0

A bubble in the housing market? Analysis based on the repeat-sales method for the secondary market in Moscow and Saint Petersburg 房地产市场的泡沫?基于重复销售方法的莫斯科和圣彼得堡二级市场分析

Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2023-70-72-88

Anastasia Kosyakina

引用次数: 0

Estimate of shadow economy dynamics in Russia and regions: The inflationary aspect 俄罗斯及地区影子经济动态的估计:通货膨胀方面

Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2023-69-121-140

S. Arzhenovskiy

引用次数: 0

Demand estimation and market definition in quality-differentiated products: The case of beer in Argentina 质量差异化产品的需求估计与市场定义:以阿根廷啤酒为例

Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2023-69-48-64

Germán Colomá

引用次数: 0

Technology firms and capital structure adjustment: Application of two-step system generalised method of moments 科技企业与资本结构调整:两步系统广义矩量法的应用

Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2023-70-34-54

T. Gopane, Tanyaradzwa Gandanhamo, J. Mabejane

{"title":"Technology firms and capital structure adjustment: Application of two-step system generalised method of moments","authors":"T. Gopane, Tanyaradzwa Gandanhamo, J. Mabejane","doi":"10.22394/1993-7601-2023-70-34-54","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22394/1993-7601-2023-70-34-54","url":null,"abstract":"The study asks whether technology firms adjust their capital structures towards predetermined targets, and if so, at what speed? Also, is there an intra‐industry leverage‐level effect? The study empirically evaluates the listed technology firms in South Africa’s Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). Methodologically, a generalised method of moments (GMM) is em‐ ployed on 34 firms over 21 years (1999–2019), resulting in a sample size of 714 observations. The results show that technology firms adjust their debt‐equity ratios towards target levels with speed above other industries at 45 to 57%. A comparison with prior research shows that this adjustment pace is consistent with the experience of technology firms in Asian emerging markets but differs markedly from that of developed economies. These results support the literature observation that technology is characterised differently in less developed economies, yet research on technology firms’ capital structure dynamics is scant. The results of this study should enlighten industrialists, investors, and policymakers involved with technology industries. Intuitively, the partial capital adjustment process should play an essential role in project financing decisions. Maintaining optimal capital adjustment speeds should lead to better industrial activity like maximised innovation and technology diffusion.","PeriodicalId":8045,"journal":{"name":"Applied Econometrics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68419323","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Impact of COVID‑19 on household consumption in Russia COVID - 19对俄罗斯家庭消费的影响

Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2023-72-73-99

Valentin Voytenkov, Olga Demidova

引用次数: 0

Value of statistical life in Russia: Estimates based on panel microdata for 2010–2020 俄罗斯统计寿命的价值:基于面板微数据的2010-2020年估计

Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2022-65-45-64

E. Zubova

引用次数: 2

Spatial modelling of voting preferences: The “Mystery” of the Republic of Tatarstan 投票偏好的空间模型:鞑靼斯坦共和国的“谜团”

Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.22394/1993-7601-2022-67-74-96

E. Podkolzina, Lada Kuletskaya, O. Demidova

{"title":"Spatial modelling of voting preferences: The “Mystery” of the Republic of Tatarstan","authors":"E. Podkolzina, Lada Kuletskaya, O. Demidova","doi":"10.22394/1993-7601-2022-67-74-96","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22394/1993-7601-2022-67-74-96","url":null,"abstract":"We argue neighbors play a crucial role in voting behavior for the main candidate in Russia. Moreover, the official status of the region and connectedness with the ruling party matter. The neighborhood effects we explain with the idea that voters base on public choices and illustrate it on the example of Privolzhskiy federal district regions with an emphasis on Tatarstan and its effect on voting on the municipal level. The Republic of Tatarstan is an interesting case also because it is the republic in Russia that has reference to sovereignty in its constitution and at the same time is loyal to the Kremlin. This paper presents a detailed spatial analysis of voters’ responses at the municipal level covering Russian presidential elections in 2018 year using the example of the Republic of Tatarstan and its surrounding regions. The preferred 2-step OLS specification with instruments shows that Tatarstan had a strong positive effect on neighboring regions in terms of voting for the main candidate, while surrounding regions voted differently and negatively affected each other. Municipalities with better economic conditions had a negative impact on the share of votes for the main candidate and positive for the opposite.","PeriodicalId":8045,"journal":{"name":"Applied Econometrics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68418114","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0