UCL open environment最新文献_第3页

Use of evidence and expertise in UK climate governance: the case of the Cumbrian Coal Mine. 英国气候治理中证据和专业知识的使用：坎布里亚煤矿案例。

UCL open environment Pub Date : 2024-02-06 eCollection Date: 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000068

Rebecca Willis

{"title":"Use of evidence and expertise in UK climate governance: the case of the Cumbrian Coal Mine.","authors":"Rebecca Willis","doi":"10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000068","DOIUrl":"10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000068","url":null,"abstract":"There is an overall scientific consensus that no new coal mines can be developed, if the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rises is to be met. Yet in December 2022, following a lengthy Public Inquiry, the UK Government approved the development of Woodhouse Colliery in Cumbria. In doing so, it accepted the claim that the coal mine would be 'zero carbon' and could even result in lower global emissions overall. As this paper demonstrates, there is no independent evidence to support these claims, whilst a large body of independent evidence comes to the opposite conclusion. This paper uses the example of Woodhouse Colliery to examine the use of evidence and expertise in climate governance processes. It finds that the nature of expertise and evidence is not properly considered, and that there is ambiguity and confusion surrounding the implementation of the UK's climate legislation, particularly the Climate Change Act. It also finds that the ways in which the decision-making process solicited and assessed evidence was flawed, promoting a 'false balance'. This ambiguity and false balance provide scope for developers to argue the case for destructive developments, even while claiming adherence to climate ambitions. The paper concludes by suggesting reforms to governance processes, to provide a more transparent and credible implementation of policies to achieve the UK's net zero target. Suggested reforms include clearer rules governing fossil fuel phase-out; greater transparency and better handling of conflicts of interest in decision-making; and devolution of climate responsibilities to local areas.","PeriodicalId":75271,"journal":{"name":"UCL open environment","volume":"6 ","pages":"e068"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10851706/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139708715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Mozambique public investment in the water and sanitation sector and the targets of SDG6. 莫桑比克水和卫生部门的公共投资与可持续发展目标 6 的具体目标。

UCL open environment Pub Date : 2024-01-23 eCollection Date: 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000067

Manuel Salvador da Conceição Rebelo

{"title":"Mozambique public investment in the water and sanitation sector and the targets of SDG6.","authors":"Manuel Salvador da Conceição Rebelo","doi":"10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000067","DOIUrl":"10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000067","url":null,"abstract":"Many developing countries may not reach the targets of providing access to safe water sources and sanitation services for all by 2030. Census data from Mozambique show that the country's population is one of fastest growing in the Sub-Saharan region. Between the 2007 and 2017 censuses more than seven million people were added to the total population. By 2030 about 11 million people will be added to Mozambique's population. This will pose a huge challenge for the water and sanitation services. Access to these services is a fundamental requirement for the wellbeing of individuals and the development of nations. The last data from a Survey on Mozambique Family Budgets (IOF 2019/20), show that 55.7% of a total population has access to safe water sources. In contrast, access to sanitation services (31% of the population), has not kept pace with the progress made in water access. In this study, based on data from the General State Account of Mozambique, which includes the description of the annual investment made by the government and using the results of the Family Budget Surveys, it can be seen that if the average percentage values of public investment of 2009 to 2021 are the same in the following years as regards the water and sanitation sector, Mozambique will not reach the Sustainable Development Goals 6 targets in 2030.","PeriodicalId":75271,"journal":{"name":"UCL open environment","volume":"6 ","pages":"e067"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10807026/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139565185","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Supporting the capacities and knowledge of smallholder farmers in Kenya for sustainable agricultural futures: a Citizen Science pilot project. 支持肯尼亚小农实现可持续农业未来的能力和知识:一个公民科学试点项目。

UCL open environment Pub Date : 2023-12-01 eCollection Date: 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000065

Matthew Davies, Muki Haklay, Timothy Kiprutto, Megan Laws, Jerome Lewis, Samuel Lunn-Rockliffe, Jaqueline McGlade, Marcos Moreu, Andrew Yano, Wilson Kipkore

{"title":"Supporting the capacities and knowledge of smallholder farmers in Kenya for sustainable agricultural futures: a Citizen Science pilot project.","authors":"Matthew Davies, Muki Haklay, Timothy Kiprutto, Megan Laws, Jerome Lewis, Samuel Lunn-Rockliffe, Jaqueline McGlade, Marcos Moreu, Andrew Yano, Wilson Kipkore","doi":"10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000065","DOIUrl":"10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000065","url":null,"abstract":"Sub-Saharan Africa is often presented as the continent most vulnerable to climatic change with major repercussions for food systems. Coupled with high rates of population growth, continued food insecurity and malnutrition, thus the need to enhance food production across the continent is seen as a major global imperative. We argue here, however, that current models of agricultural development in Eastern Africa frequently marginalise critical smallholder knowledge from the process of future agricultural design due to a lack of a methodological tools for engagement. This paper addresses this by outlining a potential means to capture and share locally produced agronomic information on a large scale. We report on a 'Citizen Science' pilot study that worked with smallholder farmers in Elgeyo-Marakwet County, Western Kenya, to co-design a mobile application using the well-developed Sapelli platform that easily allows farmers to identify, record and geolocate cropping patterns and challenges at multiple stages in the agricultural calendar using their own understanding. The pilot project demonstrated the technical and epistemological benefits of co-design, the abilities of smallholder farmers to co-design and use smartphone applications, and the potential for such technology to produce and share valuable agricultural and ecological knowledge in real time. Proof-of-concept data illustrates opportunities to spatially and temporally track and respond to challenges related to climate, crop disease and pests. Such work expounds how smallholder farmers are a source of largely untapped ecological and agronomic expert knowledge that can, and should, be harnessed to address issues of future agricultural resilience and food system sustainability.","PeriodicalId":75271,"journal":{"name":"UCL open environment","volume":"5 ","pages":"e065"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10691338/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138479768","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Location location location: a carbon footprint calculator for transparent travel to the UN Climate Conference 2022. 地点地点地点:一个碳足迹计算器，用于参加2022年联合国气候大会的透明旅行。

UCL open environment Pub Date : 2023-11-29 eCollection Date: 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000066

Jonathan Barnsley, Jhénelle A Williams, Simon Chin-Yee, Anthony Costello, Mark Maslin, Jacqueline McGlade, Richard Taylor, Matthew Winning, Priti Parikh

{"title":"Location location location: a carbon footprint calculator for transparent travel to the UN Climate Conference 2022.","authors":"Jonathan Barnsley, Jhénelle A Williams, Simon Chin-Yee, Anthony Costello, Mark Maslin, Jacqueline McGlade, Richard Taylor, Matthew Winning, Priti Parikh","doi":"10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000066","DOIUrl":"10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000066","url":null,"abstract":"Addressing the large carbon footprint of conferences such as the United Nations Climate Change Convention Conference of the Parties (COP) will be important for maintaining public confidence in climate policy. Transparency is also a vital aspect of creating equitable outcomes in climate policies, as those most likely to be affected or who can create change on the ground are often unable to attend in person because of the high financial costs as well as having a large carbon footprint. The selection of host locations for the regular meetings of the UN Climate Change Convention is based on a rotation amongst the five UN regions, which for 2022 was Africa. Here, we present a carbon footprint calculator for travel to COP 27 in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, weighing the benefits of certain routes and modes of transport. The calculator demonstrates the well-known carbon efficiency of coach and rail over flights but shows that these benefits were partly diminished in the case of COP 27 due to insufficient transport links from Europe to the conference location. However, we also highlight some of the benefits of hosting a COP in the Global South, particularly in the context of climate justice. Users of the calculator are invited to consider all their options for travel and acknowledge the issue of climate justice through careful selection of carbon offsets.","PeriodicalId":75271,"journal":{"name":"UCL open environment","volume":"5 ","pages":"e066"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10686209/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138464921","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Communicating climate change and biodiversity loss with local populations: exploring communicative utopias in eight transdisciplinary case studies. 与当地人口交流气候变化和生物多样性丧失：在八个跨学科案例研究中探索交流乌托邦。

UCL open environment Pub Date : 2023-10-13 eCollection Date: 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000064

Dawud Ansari, Regine Schönenberg, Melissa Abud, Laura Becerra, Wassim Brahim, Javier Castiblanco, Anne Cristina de la Vega-Leinert, Nigel Dudley, Michael Dunlop, Carolina Figueroa, Oscar Guevara, Philipp Hauser, Hannes Hobbie, Mostafa A R Hossain, Jean Hugé, Luc Janssens de Bisthoven, Hilde Keunen, Claudia Munera-Roldan, Jan Petzold, Anne-Julie Rochette, Matthew Schmidt, Charlotte Schumann, Sayanti Sengupta, Susanne Stoll-Kleemann, Lorrae van Kerkhoff, Maarten P M Vanhove, Carina Wyborn

{"title":"Communicating climate change and biodiversity loss with local populations: exploring communicative utopias in eight transdisciplinary case studies.","authors":"Dawud Ansari, Regine Schönenberg, Melissa Abud, Laura Becerra, Wassim Brahim, Javier Castiblanco, Anne Cristina de la Vega-Leinert, Nigel Dudley, Michael Dunlop, Carolina Figueroa, Oscar Guevara, Philipp Hauser, Hannes Hobbie, Mostafa A R Hossain, Jean Hugé, Luc Janssens de Bisthoven, Hilde Keunen, Claudia Munera-Roldan, Jan Petzold, Anne-Julie Rochette, Matthew Schmidt, Charlotte Schumann, Sayanti Sengupta, Susanne Stoll-Kleemann, Lorrae van Kerkhoff, Maarten P M Vanhove, Carina Wyborn","doi":"10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000064","DOIUrl":"10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000064","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change and biodiversity loss trigger policies targeting and impacting local communities worldwide. However, research and policy implementation often fail to sufficiently consider community responses and to involve them. We present the results of a collective self-assessment exercise for eight case studies of communications with regard to climate change or biodiversity loss between project teams and local communities. We develop eight indicators of good stakeholder communication, reflecting the scope of Verran's (2002) concept of postcolonial moments as a communicative utopia. We demonstrate that applying our indicators can enhance communication and enable community responses. However, we discover a divergence between timing, complexity and (introspective) effort. Three cases qualify for postcolonial moments, but scrutinising power relations and genuine knowledge co-production remain rare. While we verify the potency of various instruments for deconstructing science, their sophistication cannot substitute trust building and epistemic/transdisciplinary awareness. Lastly, we consider that reforming inadequate funding policies helps improving the work in and with local communities.","PeriodicalId":75271,"journal":{"name":"UCL open environment","volume":"5 ","pages":"e064"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10571513/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41241980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Mind the gap between non-activated (non-aggressive) and activated (aggressive) indoor fungal testing: impact of pre-sampling environmental settings on indoor air readings. 注意非激活（非侵蚀性）和激活（侵蚀性）室内真菌检测之间的差距：采样前环境设置对室内空气读数的影响。

UCL open environment Pub Date : 2023-02-16 eCollection Date: 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000055

Spyros Efthymiopoulos, Yasemin D Aktas, Hector Altamirano

{"title":"Mind the gap between non-activated (non-aggressive) and activated (aggressive) indoor fungal testing: impact of pre-sampling environmental settings on indoor air readings.","authors":"Spyros Efthymiopoulos, Yasemin D Aktas, Hector Altamirano","doi":"10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000055","DOIUrl":"10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000055","url":null,"abstract":"Indoor fungal testing has been within the researchers' scope of interest for more than a century. Various sampling and analysis techniques have been developed over the years, but no testing protocol has been yet standardised and widely accepted by the research and practitioner communities. The diversity in fungal taxa within buildings with varied biological properties and implications on the health and wellbeing of the occupants and the building fabric complicates the decision-making process for selecting an appropriate testing protocol. This study aims to present a critical review of non-activated and activated approaches to indoor testing, with an emphasis on the preparation of the indoor environment prior to sampling. The study demonstrates the differences in the outcomes of non-activated and activated testing through a set of laboratory experiments in idealised conditions and a case study. The findings suggest that larger particles are particularly sensitive to the sampling height and activation, and that non-activated protocols, despite dominating the current literature, can significantly underestimate the fungal biomass and species richness. Therefore, this paper calls for better-defined and activated protocols that can enhance robustness and reproducibility across the research domain focused on indoor fungal testing.","PeriodicalId":75271,"journal":{"name":"UCL open environment","volume":"5 ","pages":"e055"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10208333/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9881048","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Climate change awareness and risk perceptions in the coastal marine ecosystem of Palawan, Philippines. 菲律宾巴拉望岛沿海海洋生态系统的气候变化意识和风险认知。

UCL open environment Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000054

Lutgardo B Alcantara, Lota A Creencia, John Roderick V Madarcos, Karen G Madarcos, Jean Beth S Jontila, Fiona Culhane

{"title":"Climate change awareness and risk perceptions in the coastal marine ecosystem of Palawan, Philippines.","authors":"Lutgardo B Alcantara, Lota A Creencia, John Roderick V Madarcos, Karen G Madarcos, Jean Beth S Jontila, Fiona Culhane","doi":"10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000054","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000054","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding coastal communities' awareness and risk perceptions of climate change impact is essential in developing effective risk communication tools and mitigation strategies to reduce the vulnerability of these communities. In this study, we examined coastal communities' climate change awareness and risk perceptions of climate change impact on the coastal marine ecosystem, sea level rise impact on the mangrove ecosystem and as a factor affecting coral reefs and seagrass beds. The data were gathered by conducting face-to-face surveys with 291 respondents from the coastal areas of Taytay, Aborlan and Puerto Princesa in Palawan, Philippines. Results showed that most participants (82%) perceived that climate change is happening and a large majority (75%) perceived it as a risk to the coastal marine ecosystem. Local temperature rise and excessive rainfall were found to be significant predictors of climate change awareness. Sea level rise was perceived by most participants (60%) to cause coastal erosion and to affect the mangrove ecosystem. On coral reefs and seagrass ecosystems, anthropogenic drivers and climate change were perceived to have a high impact, while marine livelihoods had a low impact. In addition, we found that climate change risk perceptions were influenced by direct experiences of extreme weather events (i.e., temperature rise and excessive rainfall) and climate-related livelihood damages (i.e., declining income). Climate change risk perceptions were also found to vary with household income, education, age group and geographical location. The results suggest that addressing poverty and effectively communicating climate change risks can improve climate change awareness and risk perceptions.","PeriodicalId":75271,"journal":{"name":"UCL open environment","volume":"5 ","pages":"e054"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10208352/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9579227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Airborne bacterial species in indoor air and association with physical factors. 室内空气中的细菌种类及其与物理因素的关系。

UCL open environment Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000056

Anne Mette Madsen, Saloomeh Moslehi-Jenabian, Mika Frankel, John Kerr White, Margit W Frederiksen

{"title":"Airborne bacterial species in indoor air and association with physical factors.","authors":"Anne Mette Madsen, Saloomeh Moslehi-Jenabian, Mika Frankel, John Kerr White, Margit W Frederiksen","doi":"10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000056","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000056","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this study is to obtain knowledge about which cultivable bacterial species are present in indoor air in homes, and whether the concentration and diversity of airborne bacteria are associated with different factors. Measurements have been performed for one whole year inside different rooms in five homes and once in 52 homes. Within homes, a room-to-room variation for concentrations of airborne bacteria was found, but an overlap in bacterial species was found across rooms. Eleven species were found very commonly and included: Acinetobacter lowffii, Bacillus megaterium, B. pumilus, Kocuria carniphila, K. palustris, K. rhizophila, Micrococcus flavus, M. luteus, Moraxella osloensis and Paracoccus yeei. The concentrations of Gram-negative bacteria in general and the species P. yeei were significantly associated with the season with the highest concentrations in spring. The concentrations of P. yeei, K. rhizophila and B. pumilus were associated positively with relative humidity (RH), and concentrations of K. rhizophila were associated negatively with temperature and air change rate (ACR). Micrococcus flavus concentrations were associated negatively with ACR. Overall, this study identified species which are commonly present in indoor air in homes, and that the concentrations of some species were associated with the factors: season, ACR and RH.","PeriodicalId":75271,"journal":{"name":"UCL open environment","volume":"5 ","pages":"e056"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10208329/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9881042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

BoatNet: automated small boat composition detection using deep learning on satellite imagery. BoatNet:利用卫星图像的深度学习技术自动检测小船成分。

UCL open environment Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000058

Guo Jialeng, Santiago Suárez de la Fuente, Tristan Smith

{"title":"BoatNet: automated small boat composition detection using deep learning on satellite imagery.","authors":"Guo Jialeng, Santiago Suárez de la Fuente, Tristan Smith","doi":"10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000058","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000058","url":null,"abstract":"Tracking and measuring national carbon footprints is key to achieving the ambitious goals set by the Paris Agreement on carbon emissions. According to statistics, more than 10% of global transportation carbon emissions result from shipping. However, accurate tracking of the emissions of the small boat segment is not well established. Past research looked into the role played by small boat fleets in terms of greenhouse gases, but this has relied either on high-level technological and operational assumptions or the installation of global navigation satellite system sensors to understand how this vessel class behaves. This research is undertaken mainly in relation to fishing and recreational boats. With the advent of open-access satellite imagery and its ever-increasing resolution, it can support innovative methodologies that could eventually lead to the quantification of greenhouse gas emissions. Our work used deep learning algorithms to detect small boats in three cities in the Gulf of California in Mexico. The work produced a methodology named BoatNet that can detect, measure and classify small boats with leisure boats and fishing boats even under low-resolution and blurry satellite images, achieving an accuracy of 93.9% with a precision of 74.0%. Future work should focus on attributing a boat activity to fuel consumption and operational profile to estimate small boat greenhouse gas emissions in any given region.","PeriodicalId":75271,"journal":{"name":"UCL open environment","volume":"5 ","pages":"e058"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10208328/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9579230","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Multi-spatiotemporal analysis of changes in mangrove forests in Palawan, Philippines: predicting future trends using a support vector machine algorithm and the Markov chain model. 菲律宾巴拉望岛红树林变化的多时空分析:基于支持向量机算法和马尔可夫链模型的未来趋势预测

UCL open environment Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000057

Cristobal B Cayetano, Lota A Creencia, Emma Sullivan, Daniel Clewely, Peter I Miller

{"title":"Multi-spatiotemporal analysis of changes in mangrove forests in Palawan, Philippines: predicting future trends using a support vector machine algorithm and the Markov chain model.","authors":"Cristobal B Cayetano, Lota A Creencia, Emma Sullivan, Daniel Clewely, Peter I Miller","doi":"10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000057","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000057","url":null,"abstract":"Multi-temporal remote sensing imagery can be used to explore how mangrove assemblages are changing over time and facilitate critical interventions for ecological sustainability and effective management. This study aims to explore the spatial dynamics of mangrove extents in Palawan, Philippines, specifically in Puerto Princesa City, Taytay and Aborlan, and facilitate future predictions for Palawan using the Markov Chain model. The multi-date Landsat imageries during the period 1988-2020 were used for this research. The support vector machine algorithm was sufficiently effective for mangrove feature extraction to generate satisfactory accuracy results (>70% kappa coefficient values; 91% average overall accuracies). In Palawan, a 5.2% (2693 ha) decrease was recorded during 1988-1998 and an 8.6% increase in 2013-2020 to 4371 ha. In Puerto Princesa City, a 95.9% (2758 ha) increase was observed during 1988-1998 and 2.0% (136 ha) decrease during 2013-2020. The mangroves in Taytay and Aborlan both gained an additional 2138 ha (55.3%) and 228 ha (16.8%) during 1988-1998 but also decreased from 2013 to 2020 by 3.4% (247 ha) and 0.2% (3 ha), respectively. However, projected results suggest that the mangrove areas in Palawan will likely increase in 2030 (to 64,946 ha) and 2050 (to 66,972 ha). This study demonstrated the capability of the Markov chain model in the context of ecological sustainability involving policy intervention. However, as this research did not capture the environmental factors that may have influenced the changes in mangrove patterns, it is suggested adding cellular automata in future Markovian mangrove modelling.","PeriodicalId":75271,"journal":{"name":"UCL open environment","volume":"5 ","pages":"e057"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10208349/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9579228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0