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Export competition between China and Latin America and the Caribbean in the United States market 中国与拉丁美洲和加勒比地区在美国市场的出口竞争
The World economy Pub Date : 2024-03-10 DOI: 10.1111/twec.13568
Lennard Welslau, Raquel Artecona, Daniel E. Perrotti
{"title":"Export competition between China and Latin America and the Caribbean in the United States market","authors":"Lennard Welslau, Raquel Artecona, Daniel E. Perrotti","doi":"10.1111/twec.13568","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13568","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate export competition between China and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) in the United States market between 2002 and 2022. Using a sample of 33 exporters and 10‐digit Harmonised Tariff Schedule (HS) level trade data, we estimate a structural gravity model using an instrumental variable constructed from Chinese exports to eight other industrialised nations. We use a first‐order Taylor‐series expansion à la Baier and Bergstrand (Journal of International Economics, 2009a, 77, 77) to approximate the multilateral price terms pointed out by Anderson and Van Wincoop (American Economic Review, 2003, 93, Article 1). The results show that the impact of Chinese exports on United States imports from LAC is negative and statistically significant across several model specifications, levels of aggregation, and sectors. A percentage increase in imports from China decreased imports from LAC by ca. 0.75%. The displacement effect is ca. 0.32 for manufacturing products, 1.01 for resource‐based products, 1.33 when estimated only for South America, 0.25 for the Caribbean, and not significant for Central America.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"56 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140255030","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Deep trade agreements and services trade: An analysis based on service trade provisions 深度贸易协定与服务贸易：基于服务贸易条款的分析
The World economy Pub Date : 2024-03-07 DOI: 10.1111/twec.13563
Qifei Chen, Yanzhi Shen
{"title":"Deep trade agreements and services trade: An analysis based on service trade provisions","authors":"Qifei Chen, Yanzhi Shen","doi":"10.1111/twec.13563","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13563","url":null,"abstract":"Our paper builds a novel panel data sourced from the Regional Trade Agreements Database and Database on International Trade in Services Statistics (ITSS) to explore the heterogeneous effects of service trade agreements on services trade. Then we employ a gravity model with the Poisson pseudo‐maximum likelihood (PPML) estimation and obtain the following findings: First, both general service trade agreements and deep service trade agreements promote services trade. Yet, deep trade agreements have a higher trade‐expansion effect (roughly 21.53%) on services trade compared to general ones (16.9%). Next, based on the content of trade‐related provisions, we find provisions of rights of non‐establishment and natural person movement largely increase the services trade, while review provisions do not have a significant impact on services trade. Surprisingly, provisions with MFN status even exhibit a negative relationship with services trade. Third, with whom you sign the agreements matters. Deep trade agreements exert a positive and significant impact on services trade between high‐income countries (NN), low‐income countries (SS) and high‐ to low‐income countries (NS), but are insignificant between low‐ to high‐income countries (SN). Four, emerging regions, including China, may benefit more from deep trade agreements. As indicated by propensity score matching, deep trade agreements reduce service trade costs and improve the business environment more effectively than GTAs. Our empirical results are robust after controlling for the endogeneity of DTAs and GTAs. Our findings provide direct evidence for the role of deep service trade agreements in fostering international economic integration.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"23 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140260701","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Economic costs of friendshoring 联营的经济成本
The World economy Pub Date : 2024-03-05 DOI: 10.1111/twec.13555
Beata Javorcik, Lucas Kitzmüller, Helena Schweiger, Muhammed A. Yıldırım
{"title":"Economic costs of friendshoring","authors":"Beata Javorcik, Lucas Kitzmüller, Helena Schweiger, Muhammed A. Yıldırım","doi":"10.1111/twec.13555","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13555","url":null,"abstract":"Geo-political tensions and disruptions to global value chains have led policymakers to re-evaluate their approach to globalisation. Many countries are considering friendshoring – trading primarily with countries sharing similar values – as a way of minimising exposure to weaponisation of trade and securing access to critical inputs. If followed through, this process has the potential to reverse global economic integration of recent decades. This article estimates the economic costs of friendshoring using a quantitative model incorporating inter-country inter-industry linkages. The results suggest that friendshoring may lead to real GDP losses of up to 4.7% of GDP in some economies. Thus, although friendshoring may provide insurance against extreme disruptions and increase the security of supply of vital inputs, it would come at a substantial cost.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"89 31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140046728","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Robots in action 机器人在行动
The World economy Pub Date : 2024-03-04 DOI: 10.1111/twec.13562
Taraneh Shahin, María Teresa Ballestar de las Heras, Ismael Sanz
{"title":"Robots in action","authors":"Taraneh Shahin, María Teresa Ballestar de las Heras, Ismael Sanz","doi":"10.1111/twec.13562","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13562","url":null,"abstract":"This empirical study delves into the intricate factors that shape firms' choices regarding the adoption of robots within the Spanish context. Using a dataset encompassing a diverse set of industries, we employ an empirical analysis to uncover the determinants of robot adoption and investigate the associated outcomes on market variables. Our findings reveal several key factors that significantly influence a firm's likelihood of adopting robots. We find that firm profitability, exporter status, the control variables including share of R&D, and capital intensity exhibit strong positive relationships with robot adoption. Conversely, the impact of the level of human capital on adoption decisions is less pronounced. Furthermore, our study explores the impact of robot adoption on firm performance. We observe that firms embracing robotisation experience notable improvements in the output, exporting activities, and reduction in labour cost share. This study incorporates a gradient boosting‐based machine‐learning model, specifically XGBoost, along with instrumental variable regression models, to conduct rigorous robustness analyses and validate the obtained results. These findings contribute to the understanding of the dynamics and implications of robot adoption in the manufacturing sector, explaining the factors that drive firms' decisions and the subsequent market effects.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"148 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140037565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Crisis averted: Cross‐market reallocation during the great trade collapse 危机得以避免：贸易大崩溃期间的跨市场重新配置
The World economy Pub Date : 2024-03-04 DOI: 10.1111/twec.13565
Atle Oglend, Frank Asche, Hans‐Martin Straume
{"title":"Crisis averted: Cross‐market reallocation during the great trade collapse","authors":"Atle Oglend, Frank Asche, Hans‐Martin Straume","doi":"10.1111/twec.13565","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13565","url":null,"abstract":"This article investigates cross‐market reallocation of trade to mitigate negative effects of large economic shocks. We propose a simple measure of trade reallocation and apply it to Norwegian exports during the great trade collapse following the financial crisis in 2008–2009. The results indicate statistically significant cross‐market reallocation of trade away from markets hit hard by the crisis as measured by GDP/growth. Norwegian exports declined by 16.9% from 2008 and 2009. Without reallocation, the decline would have been between 1.6 and 3.8 percentage points greater. Successful reallocation at the firm level is done primarily along the intensive margin, by shifting physical products towards less affected markets within their pre‐crisis trade networks.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140037794","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
FDI, financial constraint and partial ownership 外国直接投资、资金限制和部分所有权
The World economy Pub Date : 2024-03-01 DOI: 10.1111/twec.13561
Tadashi Ito, Michael Ryan, Ayumu Tanaka
{"title":"FDI, financial constraint and partial ownership","authors":"Tadashi Ito, Michael Ryan, Ayumu Tanaka","doi":"10.1111/twec.13561","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13561","url":null,"abstract":"This study uses matched firm‐bank‐FDI data from 1989 to 2016 to explore how a firm's financial constraints affect its foreign affiliate ownership structure choice. Importantly, it tests the hypothesis that parent firms with banks as their largest shareholders hold lower ownership shares in their foreign subsidiaries, in part due to typical bank risk‐averse behaviour. The empirical analysis confirms that foreign subsidiary ownership ratios are negatively associated with parent firms' debt ratios. Moreover, this study finds evidence that greater bank ownership of the investing parent leads to lower foreign affiliate ownership shares. However, this result is not robust to two specifications: ‘crisis times’ when bank lending is greatly restricted to all borrowers, and a follow‐the‐customer relationship where the bank already has an overseas subsidiary in the host country.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140037785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Steel, security and the WTO Dispute Settlement Mechanism: A trade catastrophe in the making 钢铁、安全和世贸组织争端解决机制：正在制造的贸易灾难
The World economy Pub Date : 2024-02-28 DOI: 10.1111/twec.13556
Kenneth A. Reinert
{"title":"Steel, security and the WTO Dispute Settlement Mechanism: A trade catastrophe in the making","authors":"Kenneth A. Reinert","doi":"10.1111/twec.13556","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13556","url":null,"abstract":"The World Trade Organization's (WTO's) Dispute Settlement Mechanism has been rendered ineffective by the refusal of the United States to allow appointments to its Appellate Body. The implicit reason for this poor state of affairs is the desire of the United States to protect its steel sector under the WTO's national security exception. The arguments made by the United States in this regard are mostly spurious and reflect its status as a current bad faith actor within the WTO. The posture of the United States is undermining both the effectiveness and legitimacy of this important trade institution. This article examines both the events leading up to this situation, the commercial interests behind them, and their legitimacy under WTO law.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"103 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140037787","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Remittances and inequality: A meta‐analytic investigation 汇款与不平等：元分析调查
The World economy Pub Date : 2024-02-27 DOI: 10.1111/twec.13558
Amar Anwar, Colin F. Mang, Sonia Plaza
{"title":"Remittances and inequality: A meta‐analytic investigation","authors":"Amar Anwar, Colin F. Mang, Sonia Plaza","doi":"10.1111/twec.13558","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13558","url":null,"abstract":"This article provides a comprehensive meta‐analysis that addresses an important gap in the literature by examining the relationship between remittances and inequality in recipient countries. While numerous empirical studies have explored this relationship, there has been no prior attempt to systematically and rigorously synthesise the evidence. This study employs advanced meta‐analysis techniques, such as Bayesian model averaging, to analyse 578 estimates reported in 45 studies. The overall finding is that the effect of remittances on inequality is negative but economically small. However, significant regional variations exist, with remittances contributing to increased inequality in South Asia, while having a substantial inequality‐reducing effect in East Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin America. In the Middle East and North Africa and Sub‐Saharan Africa, only marginal economic impact is found. We recommend that future studies should control for educational attainment, income level and institutional quality to improve the accuracy of their estimates.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140025631","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Comparing alternative China and the US arrangements with CPTPP 比较中美两国与 CPTPP 的替代安排
The World economy Pub Date : 2024-02-27 DOI: 10.1111/twec.13553
Chunding Li, Xin Lin, John Whalley
{"title":"Comparing alternative China and the US arrangements with CPTPP","authors":"Chunding Li, Xin Lin, John Whalley","doi":"10.1111/twec.13553","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13553","url":null,"abstract":"Following China's formal application to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans‐Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the US' intention to rejoin the trade agreement has obviously strengthened. This article develops a numerical general equilibrium model encompassing 29 countries, incorporating the concept of inside money and trade costs. The aim is to simulate and compare the impacts of China and the US participating in the CPTPP. Comparison results indicate that China entering the CPTPP would yield greater benefits for remember countries in terms of trade, GDP and manufacturing employment compared to the US. Moreover, China's participation can also positively impact GDP and manufacturing employment in most non‐member countries. Additionally, our simulation results unveil that the US would be more favoured among CPTPP members and globally concerning welfare considerations.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"56 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140425685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does offshoring raise female employment in a developing country? Evidence from Indonesian manufacturing plants 离岸外包是否提高了发展中国家女性的就业率？印度尼西亚制造业工厂的证据
The World economy Pub Date : 2024-02-23 DOI: 10.1111/twec.13559
Hyejoon Im, Hisamitsu Saito
{"title":"Does offshoring raise female employment in a developing country? Evidence from Indonesian manufacturing plants","authors":"Hyejoon Im, Hisamitsu Saito","doi":"10.1111/twec.13559","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13559","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the effects of offshoring on female employment in a developing country as a recipient. We utilise unique data on outsourcing revenues from Indonesia's manufacturing plants. After correcting for offshoring's endogeneity through an instrument variable, we find substantial positive effects on the share of female workers, primarily driven by the increase in female workers without adversely affecting male employment. These positive effects are evident in production occupations but not in non‐production ones. Furthermore, these effects are more pronounced in industries with a sizeable low‐educated workforce, low‐technology sectors or light industries. Finally, we find that international outsourcing, rather than domestic outsourcing, is the key factor for female employment.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"51 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140437368","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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