The World economy最新文献_第3页

Offshoring and the dynamics of employment, production, and imports: Evidence from the German International Sourcing Survey 离岸外包与就业、生产和进口动态：来自德国国际采购调查的证据

The World economy Pub Date : 2024-06-22 DOI: 10.1111/twec.13606

Wolfhard Kaus, Markus Zimmermann

{"title":"Offshoring and the dynamics of employment, production, and imports: Evidence from the German International Sourcing Survey","authors":"Wolfhard Kaus, Markus Zimmermann","doi":"10.1111/twec.13606","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13606","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyses the effect of offshoring on firm outcomes, using data from Germany's International Sourcing Survey (ISS) 2017 linked to other firm‐level data. We use a direct, survey‐based measure of offshoring on the extensive margin, namely whether a firm has relocated business functions abroad that were previously performed domestically within the firm. The analysis proceeds in two parts. First, difference‐in‐differences propensity score matching estimates reveal a negative effect of offshoring on domestic employment and production. However, most of this effect is not because the offshoring firms shrink, but because they do not grow as fast as the non‐offshoring firms. We further decompose the underlying employment dynamics using direct survey evidence on how many jobs the firms destroyed/created due to offshoring. Second, we analyse changes in the mix of import goods. Offshoring firms increase the share of ‘produced goods imports’, that is goods which are both imported and produced domestically by the firm. In contrast, offshoring firms do not increase the share of intermediate goods imports (a commonly used proxy for offshoring), as defined by the BEC Rev. 5 classification.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"87 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141507412","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

COVID‐19 and global value chains: A discussion of arguments on value chain organisation and the role of the WTO COVID-19 和全球价值链：关于价值链组织和世贸组织作用的论点讨论

The World economy Pub Date : 2024-06-22 DOI: 10.1111/twec.13603

Marc Bacchetta, Eddy Bekkers, Roberta Piermartini, Stela Rubinova, Victor Stolzenburg, Ankai Xu

{"title":"COVID‐19 and global value chains: A discussion of arguments on value chain organisation and the role of the WTO","authors":"Marc Bacchetta, Eddy Bekkers, Roberta Piermartini, Stela Rubinova, Victor Stolzenburg, Ankai Xu","doi":"10.1111/twec.13603","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13603","url":null,"abstract":"We conduct an in‐depth analysis of the reasons for changes in global value chains as a result of COVID‐19 both from a positive angle, analysing expected changes in the behaviour of firms, and from a normative angle, assessing the different arguments for policy interventions by governments. The analysis generates three main conclusions. First, the COVID‐19 pandemic could contribute to diversification of sources of supply whose extent will vary by sector depending on the costs of value chain reorganisation. The pandemic, by contrast, is not likely to contribute much to re‐shoring, the return of manufacturing activities to industrialised countries, which is more likely to be driven by pre‐existing trends such as rising factor costs in emerging countries, increasing uncertainty about trade policy, and robotization and automation of production. Second, the pandemic has led to increased attention to the provision of essential goods in situations of crisis. Third, the largest risk for the global economy in the aftermath of the pandemic is a move away from open, non‐discriminatory trade policies, which would jeopardise the large benefits of open trade regimes in the current global economy characterised by scale economies, innovation spillovers, and a global division of labour.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"34 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141519981","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Do firms hedge against political tensions? Evidence from Chinese food importers of Norwegian salmon 企业是否对冲政治紧张局势？来自中国挪威三文鱼食品进口商的证据

The World economy Pub Date : 2024-06-05 DOI: 10.1111/twec.13601

Haoran Li, Xibo Wan, Wendong Zhang

{"title":"Do firms hedge against political tensions? Evidence from Chinese food importers of Norwegian salmon","authors":"Haoran Li, Xibo Wan, Wendong Zhang","doi":"10.1111/twec.13601","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13601","url":null,"abstract":"Political and economic tensions, which often jeopardise trade, are rising among the world's major powers, and countries like China are more frequently using food‐related trade actions to deal with deteriorating political relations. Using an event study approach, this paper investigates how importers respond to lasting political tensions by examining China's seafood importers' responses to the 6‐year Norway–China political tensions after Norway awarded Liu Xiaobo, a Chinese political dissident, a Nobel Peace Prize in 2010. Our results reveal firm‐level responses at both the intensive and extensive margins. At the intensive margin, firms that imported Norwegian fresh salmon before the sanction saw a 20% persistent decline in their fresh salmon import value and an 80% decrease in the import share of Norwegian fresh salmon products over our study period. At the extensive margin, we find a trade diversion effect that firms imported fresh salmon from Norway to other countries and regions, but also a consistent ‘political hedging’ effect 3 years after sanction with a 20% decline in the maximum import share from any particular country or region, even if not Norway.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"51 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141383009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How will global trade patterns evolve in the long run? 从长远来看，全球贸易模式将如何演变？

The World economy Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1111/twec.13575

E. Bekkers, Erwin Corong, Jeanne Métivier, Daniil Orlov

{"title":"How will global trade patterns evolve in the long run?","authors":"E. Bekkers, Erwin Corong, Jeanne Métivier, Daniil Orlov","doi":"10.1111/twec.13575","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13575","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, the evolution of global trade patterns until 2050 is projected with a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Feeding the model with exogenous projections on macroeconomic, demographic, sectoral and trade cost variables, the evolution of trade patterns emerges endogenously from the model. The approach is innovative in both modelling approach and exogenous inputs. GDP growth emerges endogenously in the model because of diffusion of ideas as a result of international trade and trade cost changes are based on estimates of technology and trade policy changes. The projections indicate that (i) because of projected reductions in trade costs, trade will grow more than GDP, generating a global trade‐to‐GDP growth rate of 1.1; (ii) because of structural change, the global share of manufacturing trade falls from 64% in 2020 to 52% by 2050, whereas the share of services trade rises substantially from 24% to 38%; and (iii) because of technological catch‐up, the share in global trade of both developing and least‐developed countries (LDCs) will rise (with developing countries overtaking developed economies around 2035), the share of intra‐developed country trade will fall, whereas the share of intra‐developing country trade and those between developing and developed countries will rise.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"67 24","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141276820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Internet linkage and international trade: From the perspective of risk alleviation 互联网联系与国际贸易：从降低风险的角度

The World economy Pub Date : 2024-05-28 DOI: 10.1111/twec.13600

Jie Duan, Zengxi Hu

引用次数: 0

Global shocks and the dynamics of EU countries' specialisation 全球冲击与欧盟国家专业化的动态发展

The World economy Pub Date : 2024-05-11 DOI: 10.1111/twec.13584

Simona Comi, Mara Grasseni, Laura Resmini

引用次数: 0

African continental free trade area and greenfield investment: Likely effect and transmission channels 非洲大陆自由贸易区和绿地投资：可能的影响和传导渠道

The World economy Pub Date : 2024-05-10 DOI: 10.1111/twec.13581

Anirudh Shingal, Maximiliano Mendez‐Parra

引用次数: 0

The AfCFTA tariff offers: Current state and first revelations about members' stances towards openness and protectionism 非洲自由贸易区关税优惠：成员国对开放和保护主义态度的现状和初步启示

The World economy Pub Date : 2024-05-07 DOI: 10.1111/twec.13580

Ole Boysen

{"title":"The AfCFTA tariff offers: Current state and first revelations about members' stances towards openness and protectionism","authors":"Ole Boysen","doi":"10.1111/twec.13580","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13580","url":null,"abstract":"Most signatories of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement have submitted tariff concession offers, as published on the AfCFTA Secretariat's website. Over a year since the AfCFTA came into effect, it is time to take stock of these submissions and assess the data with respect to members' stances towards fostering intra‐African trade through openness on the one hand and maintaining protection against competing imports and revenues from import tariffs on the other. Combining the offers with corresponding trade and tariff data, we find that there are both significant data gaps and inconsistencies with the AfCFTA's trade liberalisation modalities and the trade classification standard. Constructing two tariff schedules, one which repairs the offers for compliance with the modalities and another that maximises the import tariff revenue retained as a benchmark, the analysis confirms that the modalities require regions to liberalise strongly, but most opt to liberalise even more and earlier than necessary. Stances towards freer trade, however, differ markedly between regions. Deriving a measure of liberalisation stance from the schedules above and associating it with trade, economic and geographic indicators reveals patterns that suggest potential motivations for the stances of some country groups.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140932982","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Liberalising non‐tariff measures through regional trade agreements: The impact on multinational production 通过区域贸易协定实现非关税措施自由化：对跨国生产的影响

The World economy Pub Date : 2024-05-04 DOI: 10.1111/twec.13582

Valentina Raimondi, Margherita Scoppola

引用次数: 0

International trademark protection strength: 1990–2020 国际商标保护力度：1990-2020 年

The World economy Pub Date : 2024-04-22 DOI: 10.1111/twec.13579

Wantao Chen, Xiang Yu, Wei Yang

{"title":"International trademark protection strength: 1990–2020","authors":"Wantao Chen, Xiang Yu, Wei Yang","doi":"10.1111/twec.13579","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.13579","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a pioneering study that addresses the insufficient attention given to trademark rights in current indices that evaluate the protection of intellectual property rights (IPRs). Our study sets itself apart from previous measures by defining the strength of trademark protection as the level of applicant friendliness within a country's trademark system. We introduce the innovative trademark protection strength (TPS) index, which focuses on 78 countries spanning from 1990 to 2020. Drawing on established theoretical components of the patent system, we deconstruct the TPS index into four distinct dimensions: international mechanisms, legislation, enforcement and administration. Our findings reveal the growth and subsequent stabilisation of global trademark protection strength, with reduced disparities observed after 2005. Importantly, we identify variations in improvement rates among countries with different income levels, thereby highlighting the influence of economic factors. By providing a detailed methodology and transparent construction of the TPS index, we ensure its replicability and potential for future expansion. The index's objective data and extended coverage facilitate the examination of various configurations of IPR systems, policy designs and their impact on the global economy.","PeriodicalId":75211,"journal":{"name":"The World economy","volume":"79 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140675162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0