Revista brasileira de epidemiologia = Brazilian journal of epidemiology最新文献

{"title":"Noncommunicable chronic diseases and health challenges in 2050.","authors":"Deborah Carvalho Malta, Guilherme Augusto Veloso, Crizian Saar Gomes, Maurício Lima Barreto","doi":"10.1590/1980-549720260011","DOIUrl":"10.1590/1980-549720260011","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>The study aims to analyze the burden of diseases related to noncommunicable chronic diseases (NCDs) and their risk factors (RFs) from 1990 to 2021 and to project of NCDs and RFs for the years 2030 and 2050.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Estimates of risk factors and mortality from NCDs in Brazil and its States were analyzed based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>There was a 37.7% reduction in premature mortality rates from NCDs and a 34% reduction in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) between 1990 and 2021. Projections for 2050 indicate that mortality from cardiovascular diseases will continue to decline and that these will be supplanted by neoplasms. Mortality rates from diabetes tend to increase, while chronic respiratory diseases show a downward trend. In 2021, the main risk factors associated with premature deaths from NCDs were: high blood pressure, smoking, poor diet, high Body Mass Index (BMI), and high fasting glucose. Projections through 2050 point to an increase in risk factors such as obesity, high blood pressure, high glucose, physical inactivity, and poor diet - which may compromise the achievement of the 2050 targets for reducing premature mortality from NCDs.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The study points out that global targets may not be achieved, raising an alert to the urgent need to strengthen public policies aimed at the prevention and control of NCDs.</p>","PeriodicalId":74697,"journal":{"name":"Revista brasileira de epidemiologia = Brazilian journal of epidemiology","volume":"29 ","pages":"e260011"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12995342/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147482754","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Artificial intelligence in Brazilian public health: potential, challenges, and ethical implications for the Brazilian Unified Health System.","authors":"Marcela Quaresma Soares, Alexandre Dias Porto Chiavegatto Filho","doi":"10.1590/1980-549720260006","DOIUrl":"10.1590/1980-549720260006","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>To critically analyze the potential, challenges, and ethical implications of incorporating artificial intelligence (AI) into Brazilian public health, in light of the principles of the Unified Health System (SUS), also considering its interfaces with epidemiological practice.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This is a theoretical-analytical paper based on national and international literature, which articulates core AI concepts with political-epistemological reflections from Public Health. The approach includes discussions on machine learning, deep learning, natural language processing, and large language models, focusing on applications within the SUS context.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Multiple opportunities for using AI to strengthen the SUS are identified, including prediction of health events, diagnostic support, service regulation, and public policy development. However, structural barriers such as fragmented information systems, regional inequalities, and gaps in professional training are highlighted. Issues such as algorithmic fairness, explainability, technological sovereignty, and digital literacy emerge as key dimensions for the responsible adoption of AI.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>AI is not neutral, and its integration into the SUS must be guided by democratic principles and sensitivity to social vulnerabilities, or it risks reinforcing technocratic and exclusionary models. The struggle over the meaning of innovation is, therefore, also a struggle over the future of public health in Brazil.</p>","PeriodicalId":74697,"journal":{"name":"Revista brasileira de epidemiologia = Brazilian journal of epidemiology","volume":"29 ","pages":"e260006"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12995343/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147482740","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Temporal trends and factors associated with live preterm births in Espírito Santo, 2012-2021.","authors":"Marcone Marques da Rocha, Laércio da Silva Paiva, Lara Bourguignon Lopes, Raiza Brito Cipriano, Lucca Tamara Alves Carretta, Fernando Rocha Oliveira","doi":"10.1590/1980-549720260008","DOIUrl":"10.1590/1980-549720260008","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>To analyze the temporal trend of live premature births in the State of Espírito Santo (Brazil) between 2012 and 2022 and to identify associated factors.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Ecological study using secondary data from the Live Birth Information System (SINASC), covering premature births in Espírito Santo between 2012 and 2022. Prais-Winsten regression was used to assess the temporal trend of the prematurity rate, and the Prevalence Ratio (PR) was used to identify factors associated with premature birth.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>A higher prevalence of premature birth was observed among boys (PR=1.06) with weight <2,500 g, Apgar score at one and five minutes <7 (PR=3.10 and PR=4.05), and with the presence of congenital anomalies (PR=2.74). Among maternal factors, higher prevalences were found among mothers with no schooling (PR=1.51), without a partner (PR=1.11), aged <19 years or >35 years (PR 1.14; PR 1.32), who did not have prenatal care (PR=2.32), twin pregnancy (PR=6.21) and cesarean delivery (PR=1.05). In all analyses, statistical significance was p<0.001. Regarding the temporal trend analysis, Barra de São Francisco, Santa Teresa, and Vitória showed an increasing prematurity rate (2012-2022). Alegre, Cachoeiro de Itapemirim, and Itapemirim showed decreasing rates. Espírito Santo showed a stationary rate.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Espírito Santo has a stationary prematurity rate, with some microregions showing increasing or decreasing rates, indicating territorial heterogeneity and regional inequalities in access to health. Maternal and gestational socioeconomic risk factors stand out as indicators of a higher prevalence of prematurity.</p>","PeriodicalId":74697,"journal":{"name":"Revista brasileira de epidemiologia = Brazilian journal of epidemiology","volume":"29 ","pages":"e260008"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12995338/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147482738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"ERRATUM: Research in Epidemiology in Brazil: challenges, pathways, and commitments for the future.","authors":"","doi":"10.1590/1980-549720250003.supl.1erratum","DOIUrl":"10.1590/1980-549720250003.supl.1erratum","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>[This corrects the article doi: 10.1590/1980-549720250003.supl.1] [This corrects the article doi: 10.1590/1980-549720250003.supl.1.2].</p>","PeriodicalId":74697,"journal":{"name":"Revista brasileira de epidemiologia = Brazilian journal of epidemiology","volume":"28Suppl 1 Suppl 1","pages":"e250003supl1erratum"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12971064/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147438146","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mortality burden of malignant neoplasms of the corpus uteri in Mexico: an analysis of trends from 2000 to 2022.","authors":"Eugenia Flores-Alfaro, Felipe Adrián Encarnación-López, Gabriela Elizabeth Campos-Viguri, Maria Elena Moreno-Godínez, Ana Karen Herrera-Vargas, Marco Antonio Ramírez-Vargas","doi":"10.1590/1980-549720260001","DOIUrl":"10.1590/1980-549720260001","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>The aim of this study was to analyze temporal trends in malignant neoplasms of corpus uteri mortality in México from 2000 through 2022.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Certificates of death were analyzed. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), the number of years of life lost, according to the federal state, was estimated. The changes in temporal trends were analyzed using joint point regression.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The ASMR from malignant neoplasms of the corpus uteri was estimated at 2.5 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.2-2.8), and the annual percentage change from 2000 to 2018 was 4.32. The age group of 60-65 years was most affected.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>This report indicates an increase in the ASMR from malignant neoplasms of the corpus uteri. It also suggests the need for the development of public health laws focusing on the early diagnosis and prevention of uterine cancer.</p>","PeriodicalId":74697,"journal":{"name":"Revista brasileira de epidemiologia = Brazilian journal of epidemiology","volume":"29 ","pages":"e260001"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12858089/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146121359","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Alcohol consumption, mental health, and the moderating role of social isolation during the COVID-19 pandemic in southern Brazil.","authors":"Francine Costa, Thais Martins-Silva, André Luiz Girotto, Laura Cunha Goulart, Victor Alves Modesto E Silva, Rafaela Costa Martins, Cauane Blumenberg, Marina Xavier Carpena, Juraci Almeida Cesar, Christian Loret de Mola","doi":"10.1590/1980-549720260002","DOIUrl":"10.1590/1980-549720260002","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>Investigate changes in alcohol consumption and the association between maternal depression and anxiety, considering the moderating effect of social isolation during the COVID-19 pandemic, using a population-based cohort from Brazil.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Data were obtained from the WebCovid-19 study, a web-based follow-up of the 2019 Rio Grande (RS), Brazil, birth cohort, with 1,077 and 1,033 postpartum women participating in waves I and II, respectively. Changes in maternal alcohol consumption were self-reported, while depression and anxiety were assessed using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale and the Generalised Anxiety Scale. Crude and adjusted negative binomial regression was conducted, including tests for moderation by social isolation.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Of the 781 mothers included, 57.3% reported staying home ≥5 days in the last week, and 5.0% increased alcohol consumption during the pandemic. Median depression and anxiety scores were 8.0 (interquartile range - IQR 3-13) and 6.0 (IQR 3-10), respectively. Mothers who increased alcohol consumption had a 5-point (95% confidence interval - 95%CI 3.0-7.0) and 4.2-point (95%CI 2.6-5.9) increase in depression and anxiety scores, respectively. Social isolation duration did not significantly modify the effect of alcohol consumption on mental health.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Increased alcohol consumption during the pandemic was associated with higher depression and anxiety scores. The hypothesised moderating effect of longer isolation on this association remains a possibility.</p>","PeriodicalId":74697,"journal":{"name":"Revista brasileira de epidemiologia = Brazilian journal of epidemiology","volume":"29 ","pages":"e260002"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12858086/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146121348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Application of the Respondent-Driven Sampling method in an online survey in Brazil: COVID-19 morbidity in the post-pandemic period.","authors":"Paulo Roberto Borges de Souza Júnior, Giseli Nogueira Damacena, Euclides Ayres de Castilho, Wanessa da Silva Almeida, Crizian Saar Gomes, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Célia Landmann Szwarcwald","doi":"10.1590/1980-549720260004","DOIUrl":"10.1590/1980-549720260004","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>To describe the methodological procedures used to collect and analyze data from an online survey carried out from July to December 2023 and to verify whether the obtained sample is representative of the Brazilian population.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A cross-sectional epidemiological study was carried out through social media, using the Respondent-Driven Sampling methodology to collect information from the Brazilian adult population. For sample weighting, a post-stratification procedure was used based on sociodemographic data of the 2022 Continuous National Household Sample Survey (PNADC-2022). Prevalence estimates of chronic noncommunicable diseases, self-rated health, and health behaviors estimated in the ConVid-2 survey were compared with the estimates from the 2019 National Health Survey (PNS-2019).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>A total of 3,805 individuals participated in the ConVid-2 survey. When comparing sociodemographic variables from ConVid-2 with those from the PNADC, we verified very similar proportions in both surveys. Regarding chronic noncommunicable diseases, we found discrepancies only in prevalence of asthma and depression in comparison with PNS-2019. As for lifestyle habits, the percentages of current smoking, adequate leisure-time physical activity, and consumption of healthy and unhealthy foods were similar in both surveys. The greatest difference was observed in screen use after the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The use of the Respondent-Driven Sampling method with the inclusion of recruiter-recruitee pairs enabled us to obtain more reliable estimates. Concerning lifestyle changes and the findings of this study, we highlight the need for actions aimed at promoting healthy behaviors and achieving greater advances in the control of chronic noncommunicable diseases.</p>","PeriodicalId":74697,"journal":{"name":"Revista brasileira de epidemiologia = Brazilian journal of epidemiology","volume":"29 ","pages":"e260004"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12858088/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146121354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Public health emergency due to rains and floods in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil: an ecological study, 2024.","authors":"Ana Sara Semeão de Souza, João Roberto Cavalcante, Paula Orofino Moura Costa, Maiara Almeida Maia, Raquel Proença, Carlos Henrique Michiles Frank, Alessandro Pecego Martins Romano, Thiago Basílio Mendonça, Cristilene Delfino, José Lucas Pinho da Fonseca, Daniel Roberto Coradi de Freitas, Edenilo Baltazar Barreira Filho, Ethel Leonor Maciel, Márcio Henrique de Oliveira Garcia","doi":"10.1590/1980-549720260003","DOIUrl":"10.1590/1980-549720260003","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>To characterize the public health impacts resulting from the natural disaster caused by heavy rainfall and flooding in the state of Rio Grande do Sul (RS), Brazil, in 2024.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This was a descriptive ecological study covering the period between April 29 and May 31, 2024. The units of analysis were the municipalities and the nine functional planning regions. The following were analyzed: number and proportion of municipalities with an emergency declaration; deaths, ill individuals, and injured individuals per 100,000 inhabitants; and displaced and homeless people per thousand inhabitants.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Of the 497 municipalities in RS, 91.3% declared an emergency, with emphasis on regions R2 and R5, where all municipalities were affected. Regions R1 and R2 were the most impacted in terms of human harm, particularly regarding homelessness, reaching 116 and 92.9 per thousand inhabitants, respectively. Emergencies were more frequent in regions R6, R7, and R5. The spatial distribution reveals that the most affected municipalities are geographically close, especially in regions R1, R2, and R8.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The unequal impacts across regions highlight the urgency of territorialized public policies, focused on prevention and emergency response. Strengthening risk governance and public health must occupy a central position in the climate agenda, promoting equity and resilience in the face of disasters.</p>","PeriodicalId":74697,"journal":{"name":"Revista brasileira de epidemiologia = Brazilian journal of epidemiology","volume":"29 ","pages":"e260003"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12858087/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146121434","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Epidemiology and health surveillance: synergies and challenges in a changing world.","authors":"Guilherme Loureiro Werneck","doi":"10.1590/1980-549720250006.supl.1","DOIUrl":"10.1590/1980-549720250006.supl.1","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this essay, we discuss the challenges related to the interaction between epidemiology and health policies, programs, and services, with a particular focus on health surveillance. Although the scope of health surveillance encompasses knowledge beyond epidemiology, the use of epidemiological knowledge is paramount for enhancing the quality of its actions. We present the trajectory of the institutionalization process of health surveillance in Brazil, which culminated in the establishment of the National Health Surveillance Policy (PNVS) in 2018. The PNVS highlights a series of needs that can and should be addressed by epidemiology. These needs offer opportunities for greater interaction between epidemiology and health policies, programs, and services, but they require an update in epidemiology training models, both at the undergraduate and graduate levels, a greater appreciation for knowledge translation activities, and an improved alignment of the academic environment with advances in health surveillance policies in Brazil. Based on the analysis of Brazilian articles on health surveillance listed in the PubMed database, as well as data from research lines, projects, and theses and dissertations from graduate programs, we evaluate how the topic of health surveillance is integrated into research and graduate education in Collective Health in Brazil. We conclude this essay by discussing the contribution of the Fifth Strategic Plan for the Development of Epidemiology in Brazil (2025-2029) for strengthening health surveillance.</p>","PeriodicalId":74697,"journal":{"name":"Revista brasileira de epidemiologia = Brazilian journal of epidemiology","volume":"28 suppl 1","pages":"e250006supl1"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12834469/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146088331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Temporal trends in abusive alcohol consumption and their projections for 2030 in Brazilian capitals.","authors":"Deborah Carvalho Malta, Paula Carvalho de Freitas, Crizian Saar Gomes, Guilherme Augusto Veloso, Regina Tomie Ivata Bernal, Alanna Gomes da Silva, Filipe Malta Santos, Sther Luna Abras Dos Santos, Paulo Ferrinho","doi":"10.1590/1980-549720250057","DOIUrl":"10.1590/1980-549720250057","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>To analyze the temporal trend of the prevalence of abusive alcohol consumption in the Brazilian adult population residing in the country's capitals between 2006 and 2023, and to estimate projections for 2030.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Time-series study using data from the Surveillance System for Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Diseases by Telephone Survey. Abusive alcohol consumption was defined as the intake of five or more drinks for men and four or more for women in a short period of time. The joinpoint regression model was used to identify trends, and exponential smoothing was applied to generate projections up to 2030.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>We observed an increasing trend in abusive alcohol consumption in the total population (from 15.6% in 2006 to 20.8% in 2023) and among women, across most age groups - except those aged 18-24 and 45-54 years -, among individuals with 12 or more years of education, and among racial groups identified as white, Black, and mixed-race. Among women, we observed an increase in 23 capitals. Considering the trends between 2015 and 2023, the 10% reduction target by 2030 is unlikely to be achieved.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The increase in alcohol consumption among women and the failure to meet the reduction target highlight the need to advance policies and programs to curb alcohol consumption.</p>","PeriodicalId":74697,"journal":{"name":"Revista brasileira de epidemiologia = Brazilian journal of epidemiology","volume":"28 ","pages":"e250057"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12799197/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145986063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}