Historical life course studies最新文献_第5页

The Mid-Twentieth Century Baby Boom and the Role of Social Influence. An Agent-Based Modelling Approach 20世纪中期的婴儿潮和社会影响的作用。一种基于agent的建模方法

Historical life course studies Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.51964/hlcs9309

Eli Nomes, A. Grow, J. Bavel

{"title":"The Mid-Twentieth Century Baby Boom and the Role of Social Influence. An Agent-Based Modelling Approach","authors":"Eli Nomes, A. Grow, J. Bavel","doi":"10.51964/hlcs9309","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.51964/hlcs9309","url":null,"abstract":"Around the middle of the 20th century, most Western countries experienced a surge in birth rates, called the Baby Boom. This boom was unexpected at the time and the underlying mechanisms are still not entirely clear. It was characterized by high levels of inter- and intra-country variability in fertility, as some regions even experienced fertility decline during the Boom. In this paper, we suggest that social influence processes, propelling a shift towards two-child families, might have played an important role in the observed changes in fertility. Interactions in social networks can lead new types of childbearing behaviour to diffuse widely and thereby induce changes in fertility at the macro level. The emergence and diffusion of a two-child norm resulted in homogenization of fertility behaviour across regions. Overall, this led to a reduction of childlessness and thus an increase of fertility, as more people aspired to have at least two children. Yet, in those regions where larger family sizes were still common, the two-child norm contributed to a fertility decline. To explore the role of social influence with analytical rigor, we make use of agent-based computational modelling. We explicate the underlying behavioural assumptions in a formal model and assess their implications by submitting this model to computational simulation experiments. We use Belgium as a case study, since it exhibited large variability in fertility in a relatively small population during the Baby Boom years. We use census data to generate realistic starting conditions and to empirically validate the outcomes that our model generates. Our results show that the proposed mechanism could explain an important part of the variability of fertility trends during the Baby Boom era.","PeriodicalId":73242,"journal":{"name":"Historical life course studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70624857","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Interdisciplinary Approach to Spatiotemporal Population Dynamics: The North Orkney Population History Project. 时空人口动态跨学科方法：北奥克尼人口历史项目。

Historical life course studies Pub Date : 2019-01-01

Julia A Jennings, Corey S Sparks, Timothy Murtha

引用次数: 0

Interdisciplinary Approach to Spationtemporal Population Dynamics. The North Orkney Population History Project 时空人口动态的跨学科方法。北奥克尼人口历史项目

Historical life course studies Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.51964/hlcs9306

Julia A Jennings, Corey S. Sparks, T. Murtha

引用次数: 2

Introduction: Intergenerational Transmissions of Infant Mortality using the Intermediate Data Structure (IDS) 导论:使用中间数据结构(IDS)的婴儿死亡率代际传递

Historical life course studies Pub Date : 2018-12-20 DOI: 10.51964/hlcs9288

L. Quaranta, H. Sommerseth

{"title":"Introduction: Intergenerational Transmissions of Infant Mortality using the Intermediate Data Structure (IDS)","authors":"L. Quaranta, H. Sommerseth","doi":"10.51964/hlcs9288","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.51964/hlcs9288","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000\u0000\u0000It has previously been shown that infant mortality clusters in a subset of families, a phenomenon which was observed in historical populations as well as contemporary developing countries. A transmission of death clustering across generations has also been shown in Belgium, but it is unknown whether such effects are specific to the studied context or are also found in other areas. The current article introduces a special issue devoted to analysing intergenerational transmissions of infant mortality across the maternal line in Belgium, the Netherlands, northern and southern Sweden, and Norway. Taking advantage of the Intermediate Data Structure (IDS), the five empirical studies created datasets for analysis and ran statistical models using exactly the same programs, which are also published within the special issue. These works are the first set of studies using the IDS on several databases for comparative purposes. Consistent results across the studied contexts were shown: transfers of infant mortality across the maternal line were seen in all five areas. In addition, the works have shown that there are large advantages of adopting the IDS for historical demographic research. The structure has in fact allowed researchers to conduct studies which were fully comparable, transparent and replicable.\u0000\u0000\u0000","PeriodicalId":73242,"journal":{"name":"Historical life course studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45035896","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 9

Intergenerational Transfers in Infant Mortality in Southern Sweden, 1740-1968 1740-1968年瑞典南部婴儿死亡率的代际转移

Historical life course studies Pub Date : 2018-12-11 DOI: 10.51964/hlcs9283

L. Quaranta

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引用次数: 9

Membership in and Presence of Voluntary Organisations during the Swedish Fertility Transition, 1880-1949 1880-1949年瑞典生育过渡期间志愿组织的成员和存在

Historical life course studies Pub Date : 2018-09-28 DOI: 10.51964/hlcs9335

J. Junkka

{"title":"Membership in and Presence of Voluntary Organisations during the Swedish Fertility Transition, 1880-1949","authors":"J. Junkka","doi":"10.51964/hlcs9335","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.51964/hlcs9335","url":null,"abstract":"This article investigates the association between, participation in, and exposure to voluntary organisations and marital fertility during the European fertility transition from 1880 to 1949. This is achieved using individual-level longitudinal demographic data from northern Sweden linked with individual-level information on voluntary organisation membership and contextual level information on organisation activity. How living near an organisation influenced fertility is measured using mixed effect Cox regressions. The association to participation for both men and women is tested by matching members to a control group through propensity score matching before estimating differences in risks of another birth using Cox regressions. The results show that being exposed to an organisation was related to lower fertility. Joining a union or a temperance organisation showed even stronger negative associations, but only for male members, while female members showed no significant difference in fertility. The results suggest that reproductive decisions were not simple responses by the individual couple to structural changes but were also shaped within the social networks of which they were a part.","PeriodicalId":73242,"journal":{"name":"Historical life course studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-09-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45211057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Mortality, Work and Migration. A Consideration of Age-specific Mortality from Tuberculosis in Scotland, 1861-1901. 死亡率、工作和移徙。1861-1901年苏格兰结核病的年龄特异性死亡率分析。

Historical life course studies Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.17863/CAM.23494

A. Reid, E. Garrett

{"title":"Mortality, Work and Migration. A Consideration of Age-specific Mortality from Tuberculosis in Scotland, 1861-1901.","authors":"A. Reid, E. Garrett","doi":"10.17863/CAM.23494","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.23494","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides an examination into some of the most enduring debates regarding tuberculosis mortality during the nineteenth century: those related to gender, geographic and temporal variations. We use populations reconstructed from individual census and civil register data for the period 1861 to 1901, comparing a growing urban area with a declining rural area, both with around 20,000 inhabitants in 1861. Our analysis shows that among young adults tuberculosis was linked to excess female mortality in the urban area and excess male mortality in the rural area. We demonstrate that in the town textile workers of both genders had particularly high mortality from tuberculosis, and that the only reason for higher overall female mortality was the predominance of young women in the textile labour force. We show that the age and gender-specific pattern of mortality in the rural area is consistent with higher male than female out-migration together with return migration of those who had contracted the disease elsewhere and needed care during their lengthy illness. We argue that the observed patterns are difficult to reconcile with the 'bargaining-nutrition' account of gendered patterns in tuberculosis mortality, and that they provide little support for nutrition as a key influence on the disease. However, our findings do reinforce Andrew Hinde's recent argument that geographical patterns in sex-specific tuberculosis mortality rates were largely determined by migration patterns, and we discuss the implications of this for our understanding of the decline of the disease over the late nineteenth century.","PeriodicalId":73242,"journal":{"name":"Historical life course studies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67572294","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 7

Mortality, Work and Migration. A Consideration of Age-specific Mortality from Tuberculosis in Scotland, 1861-1901. 死亡率、工作和迁移。对 1861-1901 年苏格兰特定年龄结核病死亡率的考量》（A Consideration of Age-specific Mortality from Tuberculosis in Scotland, 1861-1901）。

Historical life course studies Pub Date : 2018-01-01 Epub Date: 2018-03-26

Alice Reid, Eilidh Garrett

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引用次数: 0

IDS Transposer: A Users Guide. IDS转座机:用户指南。

Historical life course studies Pub Date : 2017-01-01 Epub Date: 2017-05-09

Emily Klancher Merchant, George Alter, Jane Wang, Ashok Bhargav

引用次数: 0

The Intermediate Data Structure (IDS) for Longitudinal Historical Microdata, version 4. 纵向历史微观数据的中间数据结构（IDS），版本4。

Historical life course studies Pub Date : 2014-01-01 Epub Date: 2014-05-26

George Alter, Kees Mandemakers

引用次数: 0