Cryosphere最新文献

{"title":"Greenland and Canadian Arctic ice temperature profiles database","authors":"Anja Løkkegaard, K. Mankoff, C. Zdanowicz, G. Clow, M. Lüthi, S. Doyle, H. H. Thomsen, D. Fisher, J. Harper, A. Aschwanden, B. Vinther, D. Dahl-Jensen, H. Zekollari, T. Meierbachtol, Ian E. McDowell, N. Humphrey, A. Solgaard, N. Karlsson, S. Khan, B. Hills, R. Law, B. Hubbard, P. Christoffersen, M. Jacquemart, J. Seguinot, R. Fausto, W. Colgan","doi":"10.5194/tc-17-3829-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3829-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Here, we present a compilation of 95 ice temperature profiles from 85 boreholes from the Greenland ice sheet and peripheral ice caps, as well as local ice caps in the Canadian Arctic. Profiles from only 31 boreholes (36 %) were previously available in open-access data repositories. The remaining 54 borehole profiles (64 %) are being made digitally available here for the first time. These newly available profiles, which are associated with pre-2010 boreholes, have been submitted by community members or digitized from published graphics and/or data tables. All 95 profiles are now made available in both absolute (meters) and normalized (0 to 1 ice thickness) depth scales and are accompanied by extensive metadata. These metadata include a transparent description of data provenance. The ice temperature profiles span 70 years, with the earliest profile being from 1950 at Camp VI, West Greenland. To highlight the value of this database in evaluating ice flow simulations, we compare the ice temperature profiles from the Greenland ice sheet with an ice flow simulation by the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). We find a cold bias in modeled near-surface ice temperatures within the ablation area, a warm bias in modeled basal ice temperatures at inland cold-bedded sites, and an apparent underestimation of deformational heating in high-strain settings. These biases provide process level insight on simulated ice temperatures.\u0000","PeriodicalId":56315,"journal":{"name":"Cryosphere","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2023-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45505985","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 2: Onset of irreversible retreat of Amundsen Sea glaciers under current climate on centennial timescales cannot be excluded","authors":"R. Reese, J. Garbe, Emily A. Hill, Benoît Urruty, K. Naughten, O. Gagliardini, G. Durand, F. Gillet-Chaulet, G. H. Gudmundsson, David Chandler, P. Langebroek, R. Winkelmann","doi":"10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3761-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Observations of ocean-driven grounding-line retreat in the Amundsen Sea Embayment in Antarctica raise the question of an imminent collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Here we analyse the committed evolution of Antarctic grounding lines under the present-day climate. To this aim, we first calibrate a sub-shelf melt parameterization, which is derived from an ocean box model, with observed and modelled melt sensitivities to ocean temperature changes, making it suitable for present-day simulations and future sea level projections. Using the new calibration, we run an ensemble of historical simulations from 1850 to 2015 with a state-of-the-art ice sheet model to create model instances of possible present-day ice sheet configurations. Then, we extend the simulations for another 10 000 years to investigate their evolution under constant present-day climate forcing and bathymetry. We test for reversibility of grounding-line movement in the case that large-scale retreat occurs. In the Amundsen Sea Embayment we find irreversible retreat of the Thwaites Glacier for all our parameter combinations and irreversible retreat of the Pine Island Glacier for some admissible parameter combinations. Importantly, an irreversible collapse in the Amundsen Sea Embayment sector is initiated at the earliest between 300 and 500 years in our simulations and is not inevitable yet – as also shown in our companion paper (Part 1, Hill et al., 2023). In other words, the region has not tipped yet. With the assumption of constant present-day climate, the collapse evolves on millennial timescales, with a maximum rate of 0.9 mm a−1 sea-level-equivalent ice volume loss. The contribution to sea level by 2300 is limited to 8 cm with a maximum rate of 0.4 mm a−1 sea-level-equivalent ice volume loss. Furthermore, when allowing ice shelves to regrow to their present geometry, we find that large-scale grounding-line retreat into marine basins upstream of the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf and the western Siple Coast is reversible. Other grounding lines remain close to their current positions in all configurations under present-day climate.\u0000","PeriodicalId":56315,"journal":{"name":"Cryosphere","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2023-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41402835","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Phase-field models of floe fracture in sea ice","authors":"Huy-Hong-Quan Dinh, D. Giannakis, J. Slawinska, G. Stadler","doi":"10.5194/tc-17-3883-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3883-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. We develop a phase-field model of brittle fracture to model fracture\u0000in sea ice floes. Phase fields allow for a variational formulation of\u0000fracture by using an energy functional that combines a linear elastic\u0000energy with a term modeling the energetic cost of fracture. We study\u0000the fracture strength of ice floes with stochastic thickness\u0000variations under boundary forcings or displacements. Our approach models refrozen cracks or other linear\u0000ice impurities with stochastic\u0000models for thickness profiles. We find that the orientation of thickness variations is an important factor for the strength of ice\u0000floes, and we study the distribution of critical stresses leading to\u0000fracture. Potential applications to discrete element method (DEM) simulations and field data from the ICEX 2018 campaign are discussed.\u0000","PeriodicalId":56315,"journal":{"name":"Cryosphere","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2023-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49339235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The stability of present-day Antarctic grounding lines – Part 1: No indication of marine ice sheet instability in the current geometry","authors":"Emily A. Hill, Benoît Urruty, R. Reese, J. Garbe, O. Gagliardini, G. Durand, F. Gillet-Chaulet, G. Gudmundsson, R. Winkelmann, Mondher Chekki, D. Chandler, P. Langebroek","doi":"10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3739-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Theoretical and numerical work has shown that under certain circumstances grounding lines of marine-type ice sheets can enter phases of irreversible advance and retreat driven by the marine ice sheet instability (MISI). Instances of such irreversible retreat have been found in several simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. However, it has not been assessed whether the Antarctic grounding lines are already undergoing MISI in their current position. Here, we conduct a systematic numerical stability analysis using three state-of-the-art ice sheet models: Úa, Elmer/Ice, and the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). For the first two models, we construct steady-state initial configurations whereby the simulated grounding lines remain at the observed present-day positions through time. The third model, PISM, uses a spin-up procedure and historical forcing such that its transient state is close to the observed one. To assess the stability of these simulated states, we apply short-term perturbations to submarine melting. Our results show that the grounding lines around Antarctica migrate slightly away from their initial position while the perturbation is applied, and they revert once the perturbation is removed. This indicates that present-day retreat of Antarctic grounding lines is not yet irreversible or self-sustained. However, our accompanying paper (Part 2, Reese et al., 2023a) shows that if the grounding lines retreated further inland, under present-day climate forcing, it may lead to the eventual irreversible collapse of some marine regions of West Antarctica.\u0000","PeriodicalId":56315,"journal":{"name":"Cryosphere","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2023-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43808097","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Relevance of warm air intrusions for Arctic satellite sea ice concentration time series","authors":"P. Rostosky, G. Spreen","doi":"10.5194/tc-17-3867-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3867-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Winter warm air intrusions entering the Arctic region can strongly modify the microwave emission of the snow-covered sea ice system due to temperature-induced snow metamorphism and ice crust formations, e.g., after melt–refreeze events.\u0000Common microwave radiometer satellite sea ice concentration retrievals are based on empirical models using the snow-covered sea ice emissivity and thus can be influenced by strong warm air intrusions. Here, we carry out a long-term study analyzing 41 years of winter sea ice concentration observations from different algorithms to investigate the impact of warm air intrusions on the retrieved ice concentration.\u0000Our results show that three out of four algorithms underestimate the sea ice concentration during (and up to 10 d after) warm air intrusions which increase the 2 m air temperature (daily maximum) above − 5 ∘C.\u0000This can lead to sea ice area underestimations in the order of 104 to 105 km2. If the 2 m temperature during the warm air intrusions crosses − 2 ∘C, all algorithms are impacted. Our analysis shows that the strength of these strong warm air intrusions increased in recent years, especially in April. With a further climate change, such warm air intrusions are expected to\u0000occur more frequently and earlier in the season, and their influence on sea ice climate data records will become more important.\u0000","PeriodicalId":56315,"journal":{"name":"Cryosphere","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2023-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46683373","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating the impact of enhanced horizontal resolution over the Antarctic domain using a variable-resolution Earth system model","authors":"R. Datta, A. Herrington, J. Lenaerts, D. Schneider, Luke Trusel, Ziqiang Yin, D. Dunmire","doi":"10.5194/tc-17-3847-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3847-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Earth system models are essential tools for understanding\u0000the impacts of a warming world, particularly on the contribution of polar\u0000ice sheets to sea level change. However, current models lack full coupling\u0000of the ice sheets to the ocean and are typically run at a coarse resolution\u0000(1∘ grid spacing or coarser). Coarse spatial resolution is\u0000particularly a problem over Antarctica, where sub-grid-scale orography is\u0000well-known to influence precipitation fields, and glacier models require\u0000high-resolution atmospheric inputs. This resolution limitation has been\u0000partially addressed by regional climate models (RCMs), which must be forced\u0000at their lateral and ocean surface boundaries by (usually coarser) global\u0000atmospheric datasets, However, RCMs fail to capture the two-way coupling\u0000between the regional domain and the global climate system. Conversely,\u0000running high-spatial-resolution models globally is computationally\u0000expensive and can produce vast amounts of data. Alternatively, variable-resolution grids can retain the benefits of high\u0000resolution over a specified domain without the computational costs of\u0000running at a high resolution globally. Here we evaluate a historical\u0000simulation of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2)\u0000implementing the spectral element (SE) numerical dynamical core (VR-CESM2)\u0000with an enhanced-horizontal-resolution (0.25∘) grid over the\u0000Antarctic Ice Sheet and the surrounding Southern Ocean; the rest of the\u0000global domain is on the standard 1∘ grid. We compare it to\u00001∘ model runs of CESM2 using both the SE dynamical core and the\u0000standard finite-volume (FV) dynamical core, both with identical physics and\u0000forcing, including prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice concentrations from\u0000observations. Our evaluation reveals both improvements and degradations in\u0000VR-CESM2 performance relative to the 1∘ CESM2. Surface mass\u0000balance estimates are slightly higher but within 1 standard deviation of\u0000the ensemble mean, except for over the Antarctic Peninsula, which is\u0000impacted by better-resolved surface topography. Temperature and wind\u0000estimates are improved over both the near surface and aloft, although the\u0000overall correction of a cold bias (within the 1∘ CESM2 runs) has\u0000resulted in temperatures which are too high over the interior of the ice\u0000sheet. The major degradations include the enhancement of surface melt as\u0000well as excessive cloud liquid water over the ocean, with resultant impacts\u0000on the surface radiation budget. Despite these changes, VR-CESM2 is a\u0000valuable tool for the analysis of precipitation and surface mass balance\u0000and thus constraining estimates of sea level rise associated with the\u0000Antarctic Ice Sheet.\u0000","PeriodicalId":56315,"journal":{"name":"Cryosphere","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2023-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49142909","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unveiling spatial variability within the Dotson Melt Channel through high-resolution basal melt rates from the Reference Elevation Model of Antarctica","authors":"A. Zinck, Bert Wouters, E. Lambert, S. Lhermitte","doi":"10.5194/tc-17-3785-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3785-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The intrusion of Circumpolar Deep Water in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Sea embayments of Antarctica causes ice shelves in the region to melt from below, potentially putting their stability at risk. Earlier studies have shown how digital elevation models can be used to obtain ice shelf basal melt rates at a high spatial resolution. However, there has been limited availability of high-resolution elevation data, a gap the Reference Elevation Model of Antarctica (REMA) has filled. In this study we use a novel combination of REMA and CryoSat-2 elevation data to obtain high-resolution basal melt rates of the Dotson Ice Shelf in a Lagrangian framework, at a 50 m spatial posting on a 3-yearly temporal resolution. We present a novel method: Basal melt rates Using REMA and Google Earth Engine (BURGEE). The high resolution of BURGEE is supported through a sensitivity study of the Lagrangian displacement. The high-resolution basal melt rates show a good agreement with an earlier basal melt product based on CryoSat-2. Both products show a wide melt channel extending from the grounding line to the ice front, but our high-resolution product indicates that the pathway and spatial variability of this channel is influenced by a pinning point on the ice shelf. This result emphasizes the importance of high-resolution basal melt rates to expand our understanding of channel formation and melt patterns. BURGEE can be expanded to a pan-Antarctic study of high-resolution basal melt rates. This will provide a better picture of the (in)stability of Antarctic ice shelves.\u0000","PeriodicalId":56315,"journal":{"name":"Cryosphere","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2023-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42976382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring the ability of the variable-resolution Community Earth System Model to simulate cryospheric–hydrological variables in High Mountain Asia","authors":"R. Wijngaard, A. Herrington, W. Lipscomb, G. Leguy, Soon-Il An","doi":"10.5194/tc-17-3803-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3803-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Earth system models (ESMs) can help to improve the understanding of climate-induced cryospheric–hydrological impacts in complex mountain regions, such as High Mountain Asia (HMA). Coarse ESM grids, however, have difficulties in representing cryospheric–hydrological processes that vary over short distances in complex mountainous environments. Variable-resolution (VR) ESMs can help to overcome these limitations through targeted grid refinement. This study investigates the ability of the VR Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) to simulate cryospheric–hydrological variables such as the glacier surface mass balance (SMB) over HMA. To this end, a new VR grid is generated, with a regional grid refinement up to 7 km over HMA. Two coupled atmosphere–land simulations are run for the period 1979–1998. The second simulation is performed with an updated glacier cover dataset and includes snow and glacier model modifications. Comparisons are made to gridded outputs derived from a globally uniform 1∘ CESM grid, observation-, reanalysis-, and satellite-based datasets, and a glacier model forced by a regional climate model (RCM). Climatological biases are generally reduced compared to the coarse-resolution CESM grid, but the glacier SMB is too negative relative to observation-based glaciological and geodetic mass balances, as well as the RCM-forced glacier model output. In the second simulation, the SMB is improved but is still underestimated due to cloud cover and temperature biases, missing model physics, and incomplete land–atmosphere coupling. The outcomes suggest that VR-CESM could be a useful tool to simulate cryospheric–hydrological variables and to study climate change in mountainous environments, but further developments are needed to better simulate the SMB of mountain glaciers.\u0000","PeriodicalId":56315,"journal":{"name":"Cryosphere","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2023-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45211234","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assimilating CryoSat-2 freeboard to improve Arctic sea ice thickness estimates","authors":"Imke Sievers, T. Rasmussen, L. Stenseng","doi":"10.5194/tc-17-3721-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3721-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. In this study, a new method to assimilate freeboard (FB) derived from satellite radar altimetry is presented with the goal of improving the initial state of sea ice thickness predictions in the Arctic.\u0000In order to quantify the improvement in sea ice thickness gained by assimilating FB, we compare three different model runs: one reference run (refRun), one that assimilates only sea ice concentration (SIC) (sicRun), and one that assimilates both SIC and FB (fbRun).\u0000It is shown that estimates for both SIC and FB can be improved by assimilation, but only fbRun improved the FB.\u0000The resulting sea ice thickness is evaluated by comparing sea ice draft measurements from the Beaufort Gyre Exploration Project (BGEP) and sea ice thickness measurements from 19 ice mass balance (IMB) buoys deployed during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition. The sea ice thickness of fbRun compares better than refRun and sicRun to the longer BGEP observations more poorly to the shorter MOSAiC observations.\u0000Further, the three model runs are compared to the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) weekly CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness, which is based on the same FB observations as those that were assimilated in this study. It is shown that the FB and sea ice thickness from fbRun are closer to the AWI CryoSat-2 values than the ones from refRun or sicRun.\u0000Finally, comparisons of the abovementioned observations and both the fbRun sea ice thickness and the AWI weekly CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness were performed.\u0000At the BGEP locations, both fbRun and the AWI CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness perform equally. The total root-mean-square error (RMSE) at the BGEP locations equals 30 cm for both sea ice thickness products.\u0000At the MOSAiC locations, fbRun's sea ice thickness performs significantly better, with a total 11 cm lower RMSE.\u0000","PeriodicalId":56315,"journal":{"name":"Cryosphere","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48289563","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Statistically parameterizing and evaluating a positive degree-day model to estimate surface melt in Antarctica from 1979 to 2022","authors":"Yaowen Zheng, N. Golledge, Alexandra Gossart, G. Picard, M. Leduc-Leballeur","doi":"10.5194/tc-17-3667-2023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-3667-2023","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Surface melting is one of the primary drivers of ice shelf collapse in Antarctica and is expected to increase in the future as the global climate continues to warm because there is a statistically significant positive relationship between air temperature and melting. Enhanced surface melt will impact the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) and, through dynamic feedbacks, induce changes in global mean sea level (GMSL). However, the current understanding of surface melt in Antarctica remains limited in terms of the uncertainties in quantifying surface melt and understanding the driving processes of surface melt in past, present and future contexts. Here, we construct a novel grid-cell-level spatially distributed positive degree-day (PDD) model, forced with 2 m air temperature reanalysis data and spatially parameterized by minimizing the error with respect to satellite estimates and surface energy balance (SEB) model outputs on each computing cell over the period 1979 to 2022. We evaluate the PDD model by performing a goodness-of-fit test and cross-validation. We assess the accuracy of our parameterization method, based on the performance of the PDD model when considering all computing cells as a whole, independently of the time window chosen for parameterization. We conduct a sensitivity experiment by adding ±10 % to the training data (satellite estimates and SEB model outputs) used for PDD parameterization and a sensitivity experiment by adding constant temperature perturbations (+1, +2, +3, +4 and +5 ∘C) to the 2 m air temperature field to force the PDD model. We find that the PDD melt extent and amounts change analogously to the variations in the training data with steady statistically significant correlations and that the PDD melt amounts increase nonlinearly with the temperature perturbations, demonstrating the consistency of our parameterization and the applicability of the PDD model to warmer climate scenarios. Within the limitations discussed, we suggest that an appropriately parameterized PDD model can be a valuable tool for exploring Antarctic surface melt beyond the satellite era.\u0000","PeriodicalId":56315,"journal":{"name":"Cryosphere","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.2,"publicationDate":"2023-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43486390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}