IMA Journal of Management Mathematics最新文献_第9页

Coronavirus and sports leagues: obtaining a fair ranking when the season cannot resume 冠状病毒与体育联盟:在赛季无法恢复时获得公平的排名

IF 1.7 3区工程技术

IMA Journal of Management Mathematics Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/imaman/dpab020

László Csató

引用次数: 5

Bayesian models for prediction of the set-difference in volleyball 预测排球比赛定位差的贝叶斯模型

IF 1.7 3区工程技术

IMA Journal of Management Mathematics Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/imaman/dpab007

Ioannis Ntzoufras;Vasilis Palaskas;Sotiris Drikos

{"title":"Bayesian models for prediction of the set-difference in volleyball","authors":"Ioannis Ntzoufras;Vasilis Palaskas;Sotiris Drikos","doi":"10.1093/imaman/dpab007","DOIUrl":"10.1093/imaman/dpab007","url":null,"abstract":"We study and develop Bayesian models for the analysis of volleyball match outcomes as recorded by the set-difference. Due to the peculiarity of the outcome variable (set-difference) which takes discrete values from \u0000<tex>$-3$</tex>\u0000 to \u0000<tex>$3$</tex>\u0000, we cannot consider standard models based on the usual Poisson or binomial assumptions used for other sports such as football/soccer. Hence, the first and foremost challenge was to build models appropriate for the set-difference of each volleyball match. Here we consider two major approaches: (a) an ordered multinomial logistic regression model and (b) a model based on a truncated version of the Skellam distribution. For the first model, we consider the set-difference as an ordinal response variable within the framework of multinomial logistic regression models. Concerning the second model, we adjust the Skellam distribution to account for the volleyball rules. We fit and compare both models with the same covariate structure as in Karlis & Ntzoufras (2003). Both models are fitted, illustrated and compared within Bayesian framework using data from both the regular season and the play-offs of the season 2016/17 of the Greek national men's volleyball league A1.","PeriodicalId":56296,"journal":{"name":"IMA Journal of Management Mathematics","volume":"32 4","pages":"491-518"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2021-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/imaman/dpab007","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49557361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

Mathematics meet sports 数学满足运动

IF 1.7 3区工程技术

IMA Journal of Management Mathematics Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/imaman/dpab028

Dimitris Karlis;Ioannis Ntzoufras;Panagiotis Repoussis

引用次数: 2

A robustness comparison of two market network models 两种市场网络模型的稳健性比较

IF 1.7 3区工程技术

IMA Journal of Management Mathematics Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/imaman/dpab001

D P Semenov;A P Koldanov;P A Koldanov;P M Pardalos

引用次数: 0

Predicting play calls in the National Football League using hidden Markov models 用隐马尔可夫模型预测国家橄榄球联盟的比赛判罚

IF 1.7 3区工程技术

IMA Journal of Management Mathematics Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/imaman/dpab005

Marius Ötting

引用次数: 3

Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling and prediction of areal demands for ambulance services 区域救护车服务需求的贝叶斯时空建模与预测

IF 1.7 3区工程技术

IMA Journal of Management Mathematics Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/imaman/dpaa028

Vittorio Nicoletta;Alessandra Guglielmi;Angel Ruiz;Valérie Bélanger;Ettore Lanzarone

引用次数: 4

Modelling team performance in soccer using tactical features derived from position tracking data 利用位置跟踪数据得出的战术特征建模足球队的表现

IF 1.7 3区工程技术

IMA Journal of Management Mathematics Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/imaman/dpab006

F R Goes;M Kempe;J van Norel;K A P M Lemmink

{"title":"Modelling team performance in soccer using tactical features derived from position tracking data","authors":"F R Goes;M Kempe;J van Norel;K A P M Lemmink","doi":"10.1093/imaman/dpab006","DOIUrl":"10.1093/imaman/dpab006","url":null,"abstract":"Decision-makers in soccer routinely assess the tactical behaviour of a team and its opponents both during and after the game to optimize performance. Currently, this assessment is typically driven by notational analysis and observation. Therefore, potential high-impact decisions are often made based on limited or even biased information. With the current study, we aimed to quantitatively assess tactical performance by abstracting a set of spatiotemporal features from the general offensive principles of play in soccer using position tracking data, and to train a machine learning classifier to predict match outcome based on these features computed over the full game as well as only parts of the game. Based on the results of these analyses, we describe a proof of concept of a decision support system for coaches and managers. In an analysis of 302 professional Dutch Eredivisie matches, we were able to train a Linear Discriminant Analysis model to predict match outcome with fair to good (74.1%) accuracy with features computed over the full match, and 67.9% accuracy with features computed over only 1/4th of the match. We therefore conclude that using only position tracking data, we can provide valuable feedback to coaches about how their team is executing the various principles of play, and how these principles are contributing to overall performance.","PeriodicalId":56296,"journal":{"name":"IMA Journal of Management Mathematics","volume":"32 4","pages":"519-533"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2021-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/imaman/dpab006","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44023699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 14

A mathematical analysis of fairness in shootouts 对枪战公平性的数学分析

IF 1.7 3区工程技术

IMA Journal of Management Mathematics Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/imaman/dpaa023

Roel Lambers;Frits C R Spieksma

引用次数: 7

On skill and chance in sport 论体育运动中的技巧与机会

IF 1.7 3区工程技术

IMA Journal of Management Mathematics Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/imaman/dpab026

Phil Scarf;Akshay Khare;Naif Alotaibi

{"title":"On skill and chance in sport","authors":"Phil Scarf;Akshay Khare;Naif Alotaibi","doi":"10.1093/imaman/dpab026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpab026","url":null,"abstract":"This work studies outcome uncertainty and competitive balance from a broad perspective. It considers four sports with varying scoring rates, from soccer with typically three goals per match to netball with one hundred goals per match. Within a general modelling framework for a two-competitor contest, we argue that outcome uncertainty, the extent to which the outcome of a contest is unpredictable, depends on scoring rate, on strength variation and on score dependence. Score dependence is essentially the tendency for scores to alternate because possession alternates and possession is advantageous. We regard competitive balance as lack of variation in strength or skill, so that when strength variation is large competitive balance is low and vice versa. Thus, we argue that the outcome of a contest depends on skill, scoring rate, score dependence and chance. This description of outcome is useful because it informs policy-making in sport about the design of scoring systems and the control of competitive imbalance. Broadly, we find that: soccer is relatively competitively unbalanced but outcomes are uncertain because the scoring rate is low; the Australian football league is competitively balanced and so outcomes are uncertain in spite of the high scoring rate in this sport; international rugby matches are relatively neither competitive nor uncertain so that little is left to chance; and netball matches have uncertain outcomes because scores are positively dependent.","PeriodicalId":56296,"journal":{"name":"IMA Journal of Management Mathematics","volume":"33 1","pages":"53-73"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2021-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/iel7/8016797/9623699/09623702.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"67853753","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Pricing in make-to-order firms with a lead time-dependent cost 具有铅相关成本的按订单生产企业的定价

IF 1.7 3区工程技术

IMA Journal of Management Mathematics Pub Date : 2021-07-24 DOI: 10.1093/IMAMAN/DPAB024

Xiaoli Cai, Jun Li

{"title":"Pricing in make-to-order firms with a lead time-dependent cost","authors":"Xiaoli Cai, Jun Li","doi":"10.1093/IMAMAN/DPAB024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/IMAMAN/DPAB024","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The existing literature on make-to-order firms typically supposes that the unit production cost is a constant. In contrast, in this study, this cost is a variable that depends on the lead time. Under this assumption, we investigate the pricing problem for both a monopoly firm and two competing firms. Specifically, we develop a queueing-game-theoretic model to capture the interaction between customers and the firm’s manager and further solve the pricing problem. The results illustrate that, for a monopoly firm, there exists a service rate threshold, and for two homogeneous firms, there is a unique symmetric equilibrium. However, for two heterogeneous firms, the equilibrium may not exist, and if it does, it may not be unique. In this case, the equilibrium is characterized analytically if it is unique and explored numerically if not. Finally, a specific cost function is adopted to analyse the sensitivity of the optimal decisions. When the firms have this variable cost, compared with those with constant unit production cost, customers’ waiting time might be shorter, and the competition between firms might be fiercer. Also, for these firms, increasing the service rate or decreasing the cost parameter does not always help to increase their market share or profit.","PeriodicalId":56296,"journal":{"name":"IMA Journal of Management Mathematics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2021-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43802224","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0