IMA Journal of Management Mathematics最新文献_第3页

A dynamic overflow triage model in an outpatient queuing system 门诊排队系统中的动态溢出分流模型

IF 1.7 3区工程技术

IMA Journal of Management Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-12-15 DOI: 10.1093/imaman/dpad027

Junxiang Li, Yiling Lu

引用次数: 0

Staying Positive: Challenges and Solutions in Using Pure Multiplicative ETS Models 保持积极态度：使用纯乘法 ETS 模型的挑战和解决方案

IF 1.7 3区工程技术

IMA Journal of Management Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-12-12 DOI: 10.1093/imaman/dpad028

Ivan Svetunkov, John E Boylan

{"title":"Staying Positive: Challenges and Solutions in Using Pure Multiplicative ETS Models","authors":"Ivan Svetunkov, John E Boylan","doi":"10.1093/imaman/dpad028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpad028","url":null,"abstract":"Exponential smoothing in state space form (ETS) is a popular forecasting technique, widely used in research and practice. While the additive error ETS models have been well studied, the multiplicative error ones have received much less attention in forecasting literature. Still, these models can be useful in cases, when one deals with positive data, because they are supposed to work in such situations. Unfortunately, the classical assumption of normality for the error term might break this property and lead to non-positive forecasts on positive data. In order to address this issue we propose using Log-Normal, Gamma and Inverse Gaussian distributions, which are defined for positive values only. We demonstrate what happens with ETS(M,*,*) models in this case, discuss conditional moments of ETS with these distribution and show that they are more natural for the models than the Normal one. We conduct the simulation experiments in order to study the bias introduced by point forecasts in these models and then compare the models with different distributions. We finish the paper with an example of application, showing how pure multiplicative ETS with a positive distribution works.","PeriodicalId":56296,"journal":{"name":"IMA Journal of Management Mathematics","volume":"33 4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138691999","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Management, mathematics, and management-mathematics: strengthening the link in a turbulent post-pandemic world 管理、数学和管理数学:在动荡的大流行后世界中加强联系

3区工程技术

IMA Journal of Management Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-10-25 DOI: 10.1093/imaman/dpad024

Aris Syntetos, Kostas Nikolopoulos

引用次数: 0

Forecasting the effective reproduction number during a pandemic: COVID-19 R t forecasts, governmental decisions, and economic implications 预测大流行期间的有效繁殖数:COVID-19病毒预测、政府决策和经济影响

3区工程技术

IMA Journal of Management Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-10-15 DOI: 10.1093/imaman/dpad023

Chrysovalantis Vasilakis, Konstantinos Nikolopoulos

引用次数: 0

Joint maintenance and spare-parts inventory models: a review and discussion of practical stock-keeping rules 联合维修和备件库存模型:实用库存规则的回顾和讨论

3区工程技术

IMA Journal of Management Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-10-10 DOI: 10.1093/imaman/dpad020

Phil Scarf, Aris Syntetos, Ruud Teunter

{"title":"Joint maintenance and spare-parts inventory models: a review and discussion of practical stock-keeping rules","authors":"Phil Scarf, Aris Syntetos, Ruud Teunter","doi":"10.1093/imaman/dpad020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpad020","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract It is natural to coordinate spare-parts inventory planning and maintenance. However, work in the former area often neglects part utilisation, and work in the latter the fact that effective execution of maintenance schedules is conditioned to the availability of the necessary spare parts. This paper is a call for further integration between the two areas, and to that end we review the literature on mathematical modelling and analysis of inventory-maintenance-planning. We are not the first to address this issue (though we take a fresh perspective to the problem), but we are the first to complement such review with a discussion of simple stock keeping rules that may be used effectively in practice. We identify a growing gap between modelling and application, between theory and practice, that justifies the presentation of these simple stock keeping rules for the joint planning of inventory and maintenance. Thus, our work should be of interest not only to researchers who are looking for promising avenues for future research, but also to practitioners who are seeking to improve inventory-maintenance operations.","PeriodicalId":56296,"journal":{"name":"IMA Journal of Management Mathematics","volume":"57 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136293900","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Management mathematics: the audacity of BOPE 管理数学:大胆的希望

3区工程技术

IMA Journal of Management Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-10-10 DOI: 10.1093/imaman/dpad021

Sridhar Tayur

引用次数: 0

Causal Analysis of Tactics in Soccer: The Case of Throw-ins 足球技战术成因分析——以掷球为例

3区工程技术

IMA Journal of Management Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-10-10 DOI: 10.1093/imaman/dpad022

Nirodha Epasinghege Dona, Tim B Swartz

引用次数: 0

Singular Spectrum analysis based hybrid models for emergency ambulance demand time series forecasting 基于奇异谱分析的混合模型应急救护需求时间序列预测

3区工程技术

IMA Journal of Management Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-10-03 DOI: 10.1093/imaman/dpad019

Jing Wang, Xuhong Peng, Jindong Wu, Youde Ding, Barkat Ali, Yizhou Luo, Yiting Hu, Keyao Zhang

{"title":"Singular Spectrum analysis based hybrid models for emergency ambulance demand time series forecasting","authors":"Jing Wang, Xuhong Peng, Jindong Wu, Youde Ding, Barkat Ali, Yizhou Luo, Yiting Hu, Keyao Zhang","doi":"10.1093/imaman/dpad019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpad019","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract One of the challenges of emergency ambulance demand (EAD) time series prediction lies in their non-stationary nature. We study this important problem and propose two hybrid forecasting models, which combine the Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) time-series technique with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) parameterized multivariate forecasting. Both daily and hourly time series are studied. The non-stationary time series are decomposed into three eigentriples by SSA: trends, periodic components and residuals. Selection of the group boundary point of the periodic component is a key issue in the SSA method. We use spectrum analysis to compute a threshold for maximum information content of periodic components. ARIMA mean value prediction models are employed to forecast the trends, periodic components and residuals sub-series. Our research compares ARIMA and SSA-based hybrid models by considering the emergency dispatching departure records of six core districts in Guangzhou city from January 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021. Results show that the integrated SSA-ARIMA model performs best. SSA is a very effective pre-processing method for non-stationary time series prediction. The predictive accuracy of using a hybrid model for hourly EAD time series is higher than that for daily ones. Our discussion should be useful for improving EAD prediction in contexts others than that considered in our research.","PeriodicalId":56296,"journal":{"name":"IMA Journal of Management Mathematics","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135695589","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Income growth, forecasting, and stock valuation 收入增长、预测和股票估值

3区工程技术

IMA Journal of Management Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-09-28 DOI: 10.1093/imaman/dpad018

Dimitris Psychoyios

引用次数: 0

Multinational corporations’ capital allocation decisions across asymmetric risk locations: Intertemporal equilibrium and optimal transitional adjustment paths 跨国公司跨非对称风险区位的资本配置决策:跨期均衡与最优过渡调整路径

3区工程技术

IMA Journal of Management Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-09-07 DOI: 10.1093/imaman/dpad017

Johannes W Fedderke, John M Luiz, Helena Barnard

{"title":"Multinational corporations’ capital allocation decisions across asymmetric risk locations: Intertemporal equilibrium and optimal transitional adjustment paths","authors":"Johannes W Fedderke, John M Luiz, Helena Barnard","doi":"10.1093/imaman/dpad017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpad017","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Multinational corporations operate across locations with different risk profiles. We examine how multinational corporations address the optimal allocation of capital across multiple locations and analyse the transition path to the intertemporal equilibrium. Our model considers returns, risks and adjustment costs to reflect the dynamics of allocating capital assets across locations over time, as well as the mix of assets across locations in equilibrium. Variational calculus is employed to show that the model confirms standard expectations that where a location’s rates of return on assets increase, or adjustment costs decrease, equilibrium capital allocation and transitional capital flows to that location will increase. Symmetrically, rising (falling) risk increases (decreases) the proportion of the capital asset holdings of a location. The crucial insight is that for the transitional dynamics to intertemporal equilibrium, the optimal relative capital flow response to changes in risk can generate relative portfolio allocations that may initially move in the opposite direction to that implied by the stock equilibrium. Specifically, an increase in risk for the high-risk location may initially result in an increase in the relative capital asset flow to the high-risk location relative to the low-risk location. Empirical research must account for the possibility of non-monotonicity in asset allocation flows to avoid misspecification. Moreover, policy makers will have to anticipate possible pressure for reversal resulting from short-term worsening capital flows. These reflections are mirrored in recent research calls for separating structural and transition effects of institutional change on the investment decisions by multinational corporations.","PeriodicalId":56296,"journal":{"name":"IMA Journal of Management Mathematics","volume":"40 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134997113","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0