Big Data Research最新文献

{"title":"Deep neural network modeling for financial time series analysis","authors":"Zheng Fang ,&nbsp;Toby Cai","doi":"10.1016/j.bdr.2025.100553","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bdr.2025.100553","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Modeling stock returns has often relied on multivariate time series analysis, and constructing an accurate model remains a challenging goal for both market investors and academic researchers. Stock return prediction typically involves multiple variables and a combination of long-term and short-term time series patterns. In this paper, we propose a new deep learning network, named DLS-TS-Net, to model stock returns and address this challenge. We apply DLS-TS-Net in multivariate time series forecasting. The network integrates a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) units, and Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs). DLS-TS-Net overcomes LSTM's insensitivity to linear components in stock market forecasting by incorporating a traditional autoregressive model. Experimental results demonstrate that DLS-TS-Net excels at capturing long-term trends in multivariate factors and short-term fluctuations in the stock market, outperforming traditional time series and machine learning models. Additionally, when combined with the investment strategies proposed in this paper, DLS-TS-Net shows superior performance in managing risk during extreme events</div></div>","PeriodicalId":56017,"journal":{"name":"Big Data Research","volume":"41 ","pages":"Article 100553"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-06-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144263987","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Time-synchronized sentiment labeling via autonomous online comments data mining: A multimodal information fusion on large-scale multimedia data","authors":"Jiachen Ma ,&nbsp;Nazmus Sakib ,&nbsp;Fahim Islam Anik ,&nbsp;Sheikh Iqbal Ahamed","doi":"10.1016/j.bdr.2025.100552","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bdr.2025.100552","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While temporal sentiment labels prove invaluable for video tagging, segmentation, and labeling tasks in multimedia studies, large-scale manual annotation remains cost and time-prohibitive. Emerging Online Time-Sync Comment (TSC) datasets offer promising alternatives for generating sentiment maps. However, limitations in existing TSC scope and a lack of resource-constrained data creation guidelines hinder broader use. This study addresses these challenges by proposing a novel system for automated TSC generation utilizing recent YouTube comments as a readily accessible source of time-synchronized data. The efficacy of our multi-platform data mining system is evaluated through extensive long-term trials, leading to the development and analysis of two large-scale TSC datasets. Benchmarking against original temporal Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) sentiment annotations validates the accuracy of our generated data. This work establishes a promising method for automatic TSC generation, laying the groundwork for further advancements in multimedia research and paving the way for novel sentiment analysis applications.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":56017,"journal":{"name":"Big Data Research","volume":"41 ","pages":"Article 100552"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144307271","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Development of an integrated data system for regional tourism analysis in Italy: A microdata perspective","authors":"Samuele Cesarini,&nbsp;Fabrizio Antolini,&nbsp;Ivan Terraglia","doi":"10.1016/j.bdr.2025.100550","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bdr.2025.100550","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper presents the development of an integrated data system tailored for the Italian regions, combining microdata from the Bank of Italy's and ISTAT's surveys. These datasets offer an in-depth analysis of both domestic and international aspects of tourism, framed within the theoretical context of the tourism determinants. By merging this integrated dataset with additional data from other statistical sources, this study offers a queryable relational database enabling granular regional analysis. Currently, tourism statistics in Italy are fragmented and do not provide a unified picture of tourism in its many aspects. The relational model's interoperability addresses Italy's fragmented tourism data landscape, and its data definition language represents an important step towards the creation of a unified tourism archive. Micro-data allows for different statistical analyses than those usually carried out with aggregated data, increasing knowledge of the dynamics of the sector.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":56017,"journal":{"name":"Big Data Research","volume":"41 ","pages":"Article 100550"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144272198","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"BETM: A new pre-trained BERT-guided embedding-based topic model","authors":"Yang Liu ,&nbsp;Xiaotang Zhou ,&nbsp;Zhenwei Zhang ,&nbsp;Xiran Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.bdr.2025.100551","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bdr.2025.100551","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The application of topic models and pre-trained BERT is becoming increasingly widespread in Natural Language Processing (NLP), but there is no standard method for incorporating them. In this paper, we propose a new pre-trained BERT-guided Embedding-based Topic Model (BETM). Through constraints on the topic-word distribution and document-topic distributions, BETM can ingeniously learn semantic information, syntactic information and topic information from BERT embeddings. In addition, we design two solutions to improve the problem of insufficient contextual information caused by short input and the issue of semantic truncation caused by long put in BETM. We find that word embeddings of BETM are more suitable for topic modeling than pre-trained GloVe word embeddings, and BETM can flexibly select different variants of the pre-trained BERT for specific datasets to obtain better topic quality. And we find that BETM is good at handling large and heavy-tailed vocabularies even if it contains stop words. BETM obtained the State-Of-The-Art (SOTA) on several benchmark datasets - Yelp Review Polarity (106,586 samplest), Wiki Text 103 (71,533 samples), Open-Web-Text (35,713 samples), 20Newsgroups (10,899 samples), and AG-news (127,588 samples).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":56017,"journal":{"name":"Big Data Research","volume":"41 ","pages":"Article 100551"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144270762","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bankruptcy risk prediction: A new approach based on compositional analysis of financial statements","authors":"Alessandro Magrini","doi":"10.1016/j.bdr.2025.100537","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bdr.2025.100537","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The development of models for bankruptcy risk prediction has gained much attention in recent years due to the great availability of financial statement data. Most existing predictive models rely on financial ratios, which are performance-based measures expressing the relative magnitude of two accounting items. Despite the popularity of financial ratios, their use is notoriously accompanied by serious practical drawbacks, like the occurrence of outliers and redundancy, making data preprocessing necessary to avoid computational problems and obtain a good predictive accuracy. Isometric log ratios can potentially overcome these problems because they are designed to represent compositional data efficiently and have a logarithmic form that limits the occurrence of outliers. However, although they are not novel in the analysis of financial statements, no study has ever employed them to predict bankruptcy. In this article, we show the effectiveness of isometric log ratios to detect bankruptcy events in a sample of 138,720 Italian firms (127,420 active and 11,300 bankrupted) belonging to different industries and with different size and age. For this purpose, we use logistic regression with adaptive LASSO regularization and random forests to construct several predictive models featuring either financial ratios or isometric log ratios, and combining different horizons and lag structures. The results show that a set of 8 isometric log ratios provides, without preprocessing, almost the same predictive accuracy as a selection of 16 financial ratios that requires dropping 3.6% of the data. Also, the adaptive LASSO regularization reveals that redundancy for isometric log ratios is always below 20%, and in some cases near 0%, while it ranges from 12.5% to 46.9% for financial ratios. The predictive accuracy of models based on logistic regression is in line with and even higher than the one reported by recent studies, and random forests achieve a gain in the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve ranging between two and three percentage points.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":56017,"journal":{"name":"Big Data Research","volume":"41 ","pages":"Article 100537"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144138321","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mortality and risk of cardiovascular diseases by age at retirement in three Italian cohorts","authors":"Chiara Ardito ,&nbsp;Roberto Leombruni ,&nbsp;Giuseppe Costa ,&nbsp;Angelo d’Errico","doi":"10.1016/j.bdr.2025.100543","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bdr.2025.100543","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The relationship between age at retirement and subsequent physical health appears still contradictory in the literature, with more recent studies suggesting possible adverse health effects linked to employment at later ages. Aim of this study was to assess the long-term risk of overall mortality and incidence of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) associated with age at retirement in three large Italian cohorts using both survey and administrative data.</div><div>The risk of mortality and CVDs associated with age at retirement, kept continuous, was assessed separately for gender using age-adjusted Cox models, further controlled for chronic morbidity, education, socioeconomic and previous working characteristics. In another analysis, age at retirement was examined treating it as a dichotomous variable, comparing, in a set of analyses with age at retirement from 52 to 65 years, the incidence of the health outcomes among subjects who retired after a certain age, compared to those who retired up to that age.</div><div>Higher age at retirement was associated with significantly higher mortality among men in the three cohorts, while among women the association was not significant, although in the same direction as for men. The risk of CVDs was also significantly associated with higher age at retirement in all the datasets among men, and in two of them among women. The set of the analyses on age at retirement dichotomized confirmed the results based on continuous age at retirement for both genders. Several robustness analyses, including IV Poisson instrumental variable, confirm the validity of results for men, whereas female results were less stable and robust.</div><div>Policy makers should be aware of the risk for public heath of policies that increase retirement age.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":56017,"journal":{"name":"Big Data Research","volume":"41 ","pages":"Article 100543"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144205025","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The influence of China's exchange rate market on the Belt and Road trade market: Based on temporal two-layer networks","authors":"Xiaoyu Zhang ,&nbsp;Ye Pan ,&nbsp;Lilan Tu","doi":"10.1016/j.bdr.2025.100540","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bdr.2025.100540","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>From 2010 to 2023, this research utilizes daily closing exchange rate data for countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as well as China’s import and export volumes with these countries. Taking the renminbi (RMB) as the base currency and the other BRI currencies as quote currencies, we employ the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to propose an algorithm for constructing a temporal two-layer network, resulting in the exchange-rate-trade network composed of 14 subnetworks. Through an analysis of the network’s topological structure, we observe that 2013 marks a significant turning point, after which the network transitions from a decentralized to a more centralized form. To assess the annual impact of China’s exchange rate and trade from 2010 to 2023, we introduce a comprehensive index for identifying key nodes within the network. Our findings based on this index indicate that: (1) Lebanon, Kyrgyzstan, and other diverse countries and regions emerge as key nodes, demonstrating China’s close economic ties with these countries and reflecting the substantial influence of RMB internationalization; and (2) compared with other years, China’s exchange rate market exerts notably stronger influence on the trade market in 2018, 2021, 2022, and 2023.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":56017,"journal":{"name":"Big Data Research","volume":"41 ","pages":"Article 100540"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144147764","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A multiple-group hidden Markov model for multi-source data. Cross-country differences in employment mobility in the presence of measurement error","authors":"Roberta Varriale ,&nbsp;Mauricio Garnier-Villarreal ,&nbsp;Dimitris Pavlopoulos ,&nbsp;Danila Filipponi","doi":"10.1016/j.bdr.2025.100527","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bdr.2025.100527","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper, we develop a multigroup hidden Markov model to tackle the issue of measurement error in multi-source data from different countries. We focus, in particular, on the measurement of employment mobility in the Netherlands and Italy using linked data from the Labour Force Survey and administrative sources. The measurement-error correction we apply reconciles differences between data sources and shows that cross-country differences in employment mobility are smaller than originally thought. Error-corrected estimates indicate that mobility from temporary to permanent employment has become, over time, larger in Italy than in the Netherlands, while mobility from non-employment to temporary employment has steadily been higher in the Netherlands than in Italy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":56017,"journal":{"name":"Big Data Research","volume":"41 ","pages":"Article 100527"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144116532","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A multimodal deep learning framework for constructing a market sentiment index from stock news","authors":"Yunting Liu,&nbsp;Yirong Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.bdr.2025.100535","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bdr.2025.100535","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Unimodal sentiment analysis often fails to capture the complexity of financial sentiment. This paper proposes a multimodal deep learning framework that integrates text, audio, and image data from CCTV news videos on TikTok to construct a multimodal sentiment indicator for the Chinese stock market. Empirical results show that multimodal fusion enhances sentiment analysis, with text outperforming audio and image modalities. The indicator correlates weakly with stock returns but significantly with market volatility, aligns with seasonal sentiment patterns, and reflects significant events like COVID-19. Additionally, weekly sentiment trends indicate the lowest sentiment on Thursdays and the highest on Fridays. This study advances financial sentiment analysis by demonstrating the efficacy of multimodal indicators in capturing market sentiment and informing volatility forecasts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":56017,"journal":{"name":"Big Data Research","volume":"41 ","pages":"Article 100535"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-05-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144147766","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The narrative on tourism sustainability in Italian news: A text mining approach","authors":"Carla Galluccio ,&nbsp;Paola Beccherle ,&nbsp;Alessandra Petrucci","doi":"10.1016/j.bdr.2025.100541","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.bdr.2025.100541","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Tourism sustainability is a complex and multidimensional construct, for which there is no shared definition in the literature. Consequently, there is no standard method for its measurement, and the adoption of sustainable practices often falls short of reached goals. Therefore, contributing to the definition of the concept of sustainable tourism is essential, both for policymakers and academics. In this vein, news media data can represent a key element through which to understand the debate about tourism sustainability. This research aims to exploit the potential of news texts to explore how sustainable tourism is conceived within specific cultural contexts. Focusing on the case study of Italy, we analysed how the concept of tourism sustainability is represented in Italian newspapers, extracting the topics discussed in relation to this theme. From a methodological point of view, we employed a network-based approach for topic extraction. Our study contributes to the literature on tourism sustainability by proposing an innovative method for extracting information from unstructured data sources, such as textual data, providing policymakers with insights about the narrative around this topic.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":56017,"journal":{"name":"Big Data Research","volume":"41 ","pages":"Article 100541"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144090527","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"计算机科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}