4区地球科学

Atmosfera Pub Date : 2023-11-13 DOI: 10.20937/atm.53211

Ivan L. Novara, Daniel B. Berdichevsky, Ruben D Piacentini

{"title":"Subsurface temperature change attributed to climate change at the northern latitude site of Kapuskasing, Canada","authors":"Ivan L. Novara, Daniel B. Berdichevsky, Ruben D Piacentini","doi":"10.20937/atm.53211","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20937/atm.53211","url":null,"abstract":"Subsurface temperatures have been measured in different regions of the world, usually near the surface up to a depth of about a hundred meters. In this work a forward model calculation for a Northern Hemisphere soil temperature site at Kapuskasing, Canada, is presented, employing the solution of the differential equation of heat conduction through a semi-infinite homogeneous solid, subject to surface boundary conditions determined by surface air temperature. In this way, a detailed analysis is made of the subsurface temperature as a function of ground depth and for the time interval ranging from 1970 to the future (including the next century), for different scenarios of climate change. From these results, it was possible to determine the following characteristic quantities: (a) the depth where the surface perturbation (practically) finishes (in the range of about 180-200 m); (b) the depth where the subsurface temperature changes its slope from negative to positive; (c) the temperature change at the surface for the years where data exist; (d) the thermal gradient at steady state in the starting year (1880); (e) the temperature differences extrapolated at surface and at a 20 m depth, this last value corresponding to the depth at which seasonal and diurnal temperature variations are negligible; (f) the heat flow at surface to the inner part of the soil attributed to climate change, and (g) the temperature changes at surface for the 100 years interval (1980-2080) and mainly for the next century (2080-2180), for each site and for each IPCC Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario. As an example, the impact of the change in mean annual soil temperature due to global warming in near-surface geothermal energy is described.","PeriodicalId":55576,"journal":{"name":"Atmosfera","volume":"67 5","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136281730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Development of a CFD model to simulate the dispersion of atmospheric NH3 in a semi-open barn 建立了模拟半开放式谷仓中大气NH3扩散的CFD模型

4区地球科学

Atmosfera Pub Date : 2023-11-03 DOI: 10.20937/atm.53277

Guillermo Alfonso de la Torre-Gea

引用次数: 0

Using a hybrid approach for wind power forecasting in Northwestern Mexico 在墨西哥西北部使用混合方法进行风力预测

4区地球科学

Atmosfera Pub Date : 2023-10-30 DOI: 10.20937/atm.53258

Yanet Diaz-Esteban, Carlos Alberto López-Villalobos, Carlos Abraham Ochoa Moya, Rosario Romero-Centeno, Ignacio Arturo Quintanar

{"title":"Using a hybrid approach for wind power forecasting in Northwestern Mexico","authors":"Yanet Diaz-Esteban, Carlos Alberto López-Villalobos, Carlos Abraham Ochoa Moya, Rosario Romero-Centeno, Ignacio Arturo Quintanar","doi":"10.20937/atm.53258","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20937/atm.53258","url":null,"abstract":"Wind energy is an important renewable source that has been considerably developed recently. In order to obtain successful 24-h lead-time wind power forecasts for operational and commercial uses, a combination of physical and statistical models is desirable. In this paper, a hybrid methodology that employs a numerical weather prediction model (Weather Research and Forecasting) and a neural network (NN) algorithm is proposed and assessed. The methodology is applied to a wind farm in northwestern Mexico, a region with high wind potential where complex geography adds large uncertainty to wind energy forecasts. The energy forecasts are then evaluated against actual on-site power generation over one year and compared with two reference models: decision trees (DT) and support vector regression (SVR). The proposed method exhibits a better performance with respect to the reference methods, showing an hourly normalized mean absolute percentage error of 6.97%, which represents 6 and 13 percentage points less error in wind power forecasts than with DT and SVR methods, respectively. Under strong synoptic forcing, the NN wind power forecast is not very accurate, and novel approaches such as hierarchical algorithms should be employed instead. Overall, the proposed model is capable of producing high-quality wind power forecasts for most weather conditions prevailing in this region and demonstrates a good performance with respect to similar models for medium-term wind power forecasts.","PeriodicalId":55576,"journal":{"name":"Atmosfera","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136023042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Threats to tropical wetlands: Medio Queso Wetland as a case of degraded system 热带湿地的威胁:以退化系统为例的Medio Queso湿地

4区地球科学

Atmosfera Pub Date : 2023-10-11 DOI: 10.20937/atm.53338

Mayela Monge Muñoz, Ana Gabriela Pérez Castillo, Ana María Durán Quesada

引用次数: 0

Performance evaluation of the WRF model under different physical schemes for air quality purposes in Buenos Aires, Argentina 阿根廷布宜诺斯艾利斯不同物理方案下WRF模式的空气质素表现评估

4区地球科学

Atmosfera Pub Date : 2023-10-05 DOI: 10.20937/atm.53255

Solange E. Luque, Lluís Fita, Andrea L. Pineda Rojas

{"title":"Performance evaluation of the WRF model under different physical schemes for air quality purposes in Buenos Aires, Argentina","authors":"Solange E. Luque, Lluís Fita, Andrea L. Pineda Rojas","doi":"10.20937/atm.53255","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20937/atm.53255","url":null,"abstract":"This work presents the performance evaluation of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to estimate surface wind speed and direction, air temperature, and water vapor mixing ratio considering 22 configurations at high spatial resolution (1 km) during one week in winter and one week in spring, in order to determine the best-performing schemes for air quality purposes in the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires, Argentina. Results show that the use of urban schemes mostly affects wind speed and temperature. The single-layer urban canopy model (UCM) coupled with the Boulac planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme exhibits the best results for wind speed. Wind direction and water vapor mixing ratio are more sensitive to the land surface model scheme, with results slightly improving with the Noah-MP land surface model. Wind speed and direction errors are larger when the former is lower. When removing from the analysis wind speed values below 2.6 m s–1 for the winter week and 3.1 m s–1 for the spring week, the root mean square errors for wind direction decreased between 50 and 72% of the original value, depending on the configuration and week. Overall, under the studied conditions, configurations including Noah-Mp land surface model or the combination of a simple UCM with BouLac PBL are suitable for air quality applications, as they reproduce both temperature and water vapor mixing ratio relatively well, with errors below 10% and Correlation values above 0.7, and are the best performing configurations for wind direction and speed, respectively.","PeriodicalId":55576,"journal":{"name":"Atmosfera","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135482699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

El Niño-Southern Oscillation diversity and its relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation – Atmospheric anomalies response over the North Atlantic and the Pacific El Niño-Southern涛动多样性及其与北大西洋涛动的关系——北大西洋和太平洋的大气异常响应

4区地球科学

Atmosfera Pub Date : 2023-09-25 DOI: 10.20937/atm.53226

Gabriel Santiago Gutiérrez-Cárdenas, Diana Cristina Díaz

{"title":"El Niño-Southern Oscillation diversity and its relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation – Atmospheric anomalies response over the North Atlantic and the Pacific","authors":"Gabriel Santiago Gutiérrez-Cárdenas, Diana Cristina Díaz","doi":"10.20937/atm.53226","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20937/atm.53226","url":null,"abstract":"To explore the impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the linear correlation among the indices of each oscillation was investigated. The indices Niño 1+2, Niño 3, Niño 3.4, Niño 4, ONI, SOI, BEST, TNI and MEI were used to represent the ENSO, besides the NAO index. The analysis considers the ENSO diversity in its spatial structure. The results show that when years with Eastern Pacific (EP) La Niña events were omitted, the linear correlation increased concerning other scenarios. This means that NAO responses for the Central Pacific (CP) ENSO tend to be linear, but seemingly they are not so for EP ENSO, which explains why the ENSO/NAO relationship has been difficult to identify and predict. The TNI-NAO relationship had the highest correlation values, followed by NAO-El Niño 4, whilst NAO/El Niño 1+2 and NAO/El Niño 3 showed the lowest coefficients. The results also confirmed that the atmospheric dynamics over the North Atlantic have a more linear teleconnection to the West and Central Pacific than to the Eastern Pacific. Changes in deep convection, atmospheric circulation, and vorticity are discussed like possible mechanisms that trigger the changes in impacts over the North Atlantic and other locations. The composite anomalies map also showed the contrast in the effects of both events and the importance of considering those differences when modeling ocean dynamics.","PeriodicalId":55576,"journal":{"name":"Atmosfera","volume":"49 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135815219","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Structural change points of NDVI in Mexico driven by climate oscillatio 气候振荡驱动下墨西哥NDVI的结构变化点

4区地球科学

Atmosfera Pub Date : 2023-09-25 DOI: 10.20937/atm.53201

Oscar O. Díaz, Graciela B. Raga, Arturo I. Quintanar, John F. Mejía

引用次数: 0

Urban atmospheric humidity excesses and deficits in two Mexican metropolises: Guadalajara and Puebla 两个墨西哥大都市:瓜达拉哈拉和普埃布拉的城市大气湿度过剩和不足

4区地球科学

Atmosfera Pub Date : 2023-09-25 DOI: 10.20937/atm.53252

Adalberto Tejeda-Martínez, Gabriel Balderas, Luz Moreyra, Omar Castro

引用次数: 0

Distribution changes of the toxic mushroom Amanita phalloides under climate change scenarios and its potential risk over indigenous communities in Mexico 气候变化情景下毒蘑菇毒伞菌的分布变化及其对墨西哥土著社区的潜在风险

4区地球科学

Atmosfera Pub Date : 2023-09-25 DOI: 10.20937/atm.53244

Abril Villagrán-Vázquez, Roberto Garibay-Orijel, Carolina Ureta

{"title":"Distribution changes of the toxic mushroom Amanita phalloides under climate change scenarios and its potential risk over indigenous communities in Mexico","authors":"Abril Villagrán-Vázquez, Roberto Garibay-Orijel, Carolina Ureta","doi":"10.20937/atm.53244","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20937/atm.53244","url":null,"abstract":"Amanita phalloides is a native European deathly ectomycorrhizal mushroom that was introduced to North America and has been expanding its distribution during the last decades. This species is morphologically similar to wild edible mushrooms and if its distribution expands to Mexico, it could represent a risk in terms of food security for local communities. The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential climatic suitability that exists for A. phalloides in North America and overlay it with the distribution of mycophilic communities in Mexico under a baseline climatic scenario and climate change scenarios. To find climatic suitability we modeled its potential distribution with the algorithm that had the best predictive power after pilot test (MaxEnt) using species presences and eight climatic variables chosen with biological and statistical criteria. We worked with CanESM5 because it is one of the best models to simulate climate in North America and SSP5-8.5 scenario in order to be consistent with the precautionary principle. Our results suggest that even when the species has not yet been registered in Mexico, when using European records to model, this country presents 33.61% of climatic suitability for this species under the baseline scenario, potentially affecting about 70% of indigenous communities which are the main consumers of edible mushrooms. Under climate change scenarios, an increase in climatic suitability is expected in Mexico, while decreases are expected in United States and Canada. When using North American records to model, almost no climatic suitability is found in Mexico; however, the implementation of warning campaigns in Mexico is still needed.","PeriodicalId":55576,"journal":{"name":"Atmosfera","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135815210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Atlantic and Pacific sea surface temperature correlations with precipitation over northern Mexico 大西洋和太平洋海面温度与墨西哥北部降水的相关性

4区地球科学

Atmosfera Pub Date : 2023-09-25 DOI: 10.20937/atm.53257

Regina Mijares-Fajardo, René Lobato-Sánchez, Carlos Patiño-Gómez, David Eduardo Guevara-Polo

{"title":"Atlantic and Pacific sea surface temperature correlations with precipitation over northern Mexico","authors":"Regina Mijares-Fajardo, René Lobato-Sánchez, Carlos Patiño-Gómez, David Eduardo Guevara-Polo","doi":"10.20937/atm.53257","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.20937/atm.53257","url":null,"abstract":"Three main sea surface temperature (SST) oscillations in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans have shown to play a key role in modulating rainfall variability over northern Mexico. Nevertheless, only a few studies have explored these teleconnections under a climate classification approach. In this study, the effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Oceanic El Niño Index (ONI) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), over precipitation in dry and semi-dry areas of the Baja California peninsula and the state of Tamaulipas are analyzed for the period 1951-2021. Pearson and Spearman correlations are compared and proven to have equivalent results despite the different physical conditions of the two territories. The results show several statistically significant correlations indicating that for the study regions, the correlation is negative throughout the year between the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and AMO in latitudes above 28º N, while it is negative (positive) during the months of January-April (October-November) in lower latitudes. Simultaneously, the correlation is positive between SPI and ONI/PDO in eastern and western regions of northern Mexico, and it is negative between SPI-ONI and SPI-PDO in the months of August-September over the eastern side. The information generated throughout this study, in conjunction with the understanding of regional climate dynamics, can help to comprehend with greater certainty the effects of these teleconnections.","PeriodicalId":55576,"journal":{"name":"Atmosfera","volume":"52 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135814270","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Atmosfera最新文献