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The Reference Class Problem and Probabilities in the Individual Case: A Response to Fuller 参考类问题与个案概率:对富勒的回应
IF 1.7 2区 哲学
Philosophy of Science Pub Date : 2023-05-02 DOI: 10.1017/psa.2023.74
A. Devanesan
{"title":"The Reference Class Problem and Probabilities in the Individual Case: A Response to Fuller","authors":"A. Devanesan","doi":"10.1017/psa.2023.74","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/psa.2023.74","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In a recent article on the interpretation of probability in evidence-based medical practice, Jonathan Fuller argues that we should interpret probabilities as credences in individual cases because this avoids some important problems. In this article, I argue that Fuller misidentifies the real issue and so fails to offer a meaningful solution to it. The real problem with making probability judgments in individual cases is deciding which objective considerations ought to constrain our formation of credences. This leads us to the reference class problem, which, as Alan Hajek argues, is a problem for any interpretation of probability.","PeriodicalId":54620,"journal":{"name":"Philosophy of Science","volume":"19 1","pages":"1001 - 1009"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91377801","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"哲学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Review of Ronald J. Planer and Kim Sterelny’s From Signal to Symbol – Ronald J. Planer and Kim Sterelny, From Signal to Symbol: The Evolution of Language. Cambridge: The MIT Press (2021), 296 pp., $35.00 (hardcover) Ronald J. Planer和Kim Sterelny的《从信号到符号》述评——Ronald J. Planer和Kim Sterelny的《从信号到符号:语言的演变》。剑桥:麻省理工学院出版社(2021)，296页，35.00美元(精装本)
IF 1.7 2区 哲学
Philosophy of Science Pub Date : 2023-05-02 DOI: 10.1017/psa.2023.75
Travis LaCroix
{"title":"Review of Ronald J. Planer and Kim Sterelny’s From Signal to Symbol – Ronald J. Planer and Kim Sterelny, From Signal to Symbol: The Evolution of Language. Cambridge: The MIT Press (2021), 296 pp., $35.00 (hardcover)","authors":"Travis LaCroix","doi":"10.1017/psa.2023.75","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/psa.2023.75","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 A review of Planer and Sterelny’s (2021) book on language origins, From Signal to Symbol: The Evolution of Language.\u0000 TL;DR — Good book. Read book.","PeriodicalId":54620,"journal":{"name":"Philosophy of Science","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76897444","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"哲学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Motivating a Scientific Modeling Continuum: The Case of “Natural Models” in the COVID-19 Pandemic 激励科学建模连续体:COVID-19大流行中的“自然模型”案例
IF 1.7 2区 哲学
Philosophy of Science Pub Date : 2023-04-19 DOI: 10.1017/psa.2023.72
R. Nefdt
{"title":"Motivating a Scientific Modeling Continuum: The Case of “Natural Models” in the COVID-19 Pandemic","authors":"R. Nefdt","doi":"10.1017/psa.2023.72","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/psa.2023.72","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The COVID-19 global pandemic had a profound effect on scientific practice. During this time, officials crucially relied on the work done by modelers. This raises novel questions for the philosophy of science. Here I investigate the possibility of 'natural models' in predicting the SARS-Cov-2 virus’s trajectory for epidemiological purposes. I argue that to the extent that these can be considered scientific models, they support the possibility of a continuum from scientific models to natural models differing in artifactual commitment. In making my case, I draw from work on both model organisms and natural experiments as well as recent work in epidemiology.","PeriodicalId":54620,"journal":{"name":"Philosophy of Science","volume":"19 1","pages":"880 - 900"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80206901","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"哲学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Causal History, Statistical Relevance, and Explanatory Power 因果史，统计相关性和解释力
IF 1.7 2区 哲学
Philosophy of Science Pub Date : 2023-04-13 DOI: 10.1017/psa.2023.71
David Kinney
{"title":"Causal History, Statistical Relevance, and Explanatory Power","authors":"David Kinney","doi":"10.1017/psa.2023.71","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/psa.2023.71","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 In discussions of the power of causal explanations, one often finds a commitment to two premises. The first is that, all else being equal, a causal explanation is powerful to the extent that it cites the full causal history of why the effect occurred. The second is that, all else being equal, causal explanations are powerful to the extent that the occurrence of a cause allows us to predict the occurrence of its effect. This article proves a representation theorem showing that there is a unique family of functions measuring a causal explanation’s power that satisfies these two premises.","PeriodicalId":54620,"journal":{"name":"Philosophy of Science","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76028001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"哲学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Multi-Model Reasoning in Economics: The Case of COMPASS 经济学中的多模型推理:以COMPASS为例
IF 1.7 2区 哲学
Philosophy of Science Pub Date : 2023-04-13 DOI: 10.1017/psa.2023.69
Jennifer S. Jhun
{"title":"Multi-Model Reasoning in Economics: The Case of COMPASS","authors":"Jennifer S. Jhun","doi":"10.1017/psa.2023.69","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/psa.2023.69","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Economists often consult multiple models in order to combat model uncertainty in the face of misspecification. By examining modeling practices at the Bank of England, this paper identifies an important, but underappreciated modeling procedure. Sometimes an idealized model is manipulated to reproduce the results from another distinct auxiliary model, ones which it could not produce on its own. However, this procedure does not involve making the original model “more realistic,” insofar as this means adding in additional causal factors. This suggests that there are ways to make models more representationally adequate that do not involve de-idealization in the straightforward sense.","PeriodicalId":54620,"journal":{"name":"Philosophy of Science","volume":"57 1","pages":"836 - 854"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86815782","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"哲学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Robert W. Batterman, A Middle Way: A Non-Fundamental Approach to Many-Body Physics. New York: Oxford University Press (2021) 174 pp., $74. 罗伯特·w·巴特曼，《中间道路:多体物理学的非基本方法》。纽约:牛津大学出版社(2021)174页，74美元。
IF 1.7 2区 哲学
Philosophy of Science Pub Date : 2023-04-13 DOI: 10.1017/psa.2023.70
E. Shech
{"title":"Robert W. Batterman, A Middle Way: A Non-Fundamental Approach to Many-Body Physics. New York: Oxford University Press (2021) 174 pp., $74.","authors":"E. Shech","doi":"10.1017/psa.2023.70","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/psa.2023.70","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":54620,"journal":{"name":"Philosophy of Science","volume":"66 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83926222","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"哲学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
On the Utility of Research into Geoengineering Technologies for Risk-avoidant Agents 地球工程技术在规避风险主体中的应用研究
IF 1.7 2区 哲学
Philosophy of Science Pub Date : 2023-04-11 DOI: 10.1017/psa.2023.57
{"title":"On the Utility of Research into Geoengineering Technologies for Risk-avoidant Agents","authors":"","doi":"10.1017/psa.2023.57","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/psa.2023.57","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 In a recent paper Winsberg (2021) argued in favor of research into geoengineering by relying on Good’s theorem, which states that conducting research maximizes one’s expected utility. However, this result sometimes fails for risk-avoidant agents (Buchak 2010). Since risk avoidance captures some of the ’precautionary’ intuitions that critics of geoengineering share, it is important to see if geoengineering research would maximize one’s utility if risk avoidance is taken into account. I show that under some conditions conducting geoengineering research would not maximize risk-weighted expected utility.","PeriodicalId":54620,"journal":{"name":"Philosophy of Science","volume":"68 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77692578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"哲学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Review of Nancy Cartwright’s A Philosopher Looks at Science 南希·卡特莱特的《哲学家看科学》书评
IF 1.7 2区 哲学
Philosophy of Science Pub Date : 2023-04-11 DOI: 10.1017/psa.2023.63
D. Hicks
{"title":"Review of Nancy Cartwright’s A Philosopher Looks at Science","authors":"D. Hicks","doi":"10.1017/psa.2023.63","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/psa.2023.63","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":54620,"journal":{"name":"Philosophy of Science","volume":"32 1","pages":"756 - 760"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87766820","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"哲学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Review of Jeffrey McDonough’s A Miracle Creed: The Principle of Optimality in Leibniz’s Physics and Philosophy 麦克多诺的《奇迹信条:莱布尼茨物理学和哲学中的最优原则》述评
IF 1.7 2区 哲学
Philosophy of Science Pub Date : 2023-04-11 DOI: 10.1017/psa.2023.67
Hao Dong
{"title":"Review of Jeffrey McDonough’s A Miracle Creed: The Principle of Optimality in Leibniz’s Physics and Philosophy","authors":"Hao Dong","doi":"10.1017/psa.2023.67","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/psa.2023.67","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":54620,"journal":{"name":"Philosophy of Science","volume":"95 1","pages":"1013 - 1016"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75647070","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"哲学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Bias Dynamics Model: Correcting for Meta-biases in Therapeutic Prediction 偏倚动力学模型:治疗预测中的元偏校正
IF 1.7 2区 哲学
Philosophy of Science Pub Date : 2023-04-11 DOI: 10.1017/psa.2023.66
A. Erasmus
{"title":"The Bias Dynamics Model: Correcting for Meta-biases in Therapeutic Prediction","authors":"A. Erasmus","doi":"10.1017/psa.2023.66","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/psa.2023.66","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Inferences from clinical research results to estimates of therapeutic effectiveness suffer due to various biases. I argue that predictions of medical effectiveness are prone to failure because current medical research overlooks the impacts of a particularly detrimental set of biases: meta-biases. Meta-biases are linked to higher-level characteristics of medical research and their effects are only observed when comparing sets of studies that share certain meta-level properties. I offer a model for correcting research results based on meta-research evidence, the bias dynamics model, which employs regularly updated empirical bias coefficients to attenuate estimates of therapeutic effectiveness.","PeriodicalId":54620,"journal":{"name":"Philosophy of Science","volume":"45 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7,"publicationDate":"2023-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88489079","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"哲学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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