Communications health最新文献

{"title":"Integrating parallel <i>Plasmodium falciparum</i> and <i>Plasmodium vivax</i> malaria models in a unified framework to capture co-endemic prevalence patterns.","authors":"Richard J Sheppard, Giovanni D Charles, Constanze Ciavarella, Nora Schmit, Shazia N Ruybal-Pesántez, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Tom R Brewer, Michael T White, Peter Winskill","doi":"10.1038/s44528-026-00007-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44528-026-00007-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong><i>Plasmodium falciparum</i> and <i>Plasmodium vivax</i> cause most malaria cases worldwide and are co-endemic in many countries, yet differ substantially in biology and in their responses to common interventions. As programmes drive down <i>P. falciparum</i>, <i>P. vivax</i> is a growing challenge for elimination, but most modelling tools assess the species separately, limiting coordinated policy. We aimed to build a unified malaria transmission modelling framework for co-endemic settings and assess how well it reflects global prevalence.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We integrated an established <i>P. vivax</i> model into a flexible <i>P. falciparum</i> modelling platform, enabling parallel simulation of both species within a shared biological, demographic, and intervention environment. Modelled equilibrium prevalences, matched by mosquito density, were compared with 19,225 yearly co-prevalence estimates from the Malaria Atlas Project (769 sub-national regions, 33 co-endemic countries, 2000-2024); uncertainty was represented by 95% quantile-based regions from 50 parameter draws. We assessed how this fit was modified by biological factors and simulated interventions.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Here we show that the framework captures 51% of co-prevalence estimates within its uncertainty regions, rising to 65.5% when country-specific <i>P. vivax</i> relapse rates and human Duffy negativity are included. <i>P. falciparum</i> predominates where mosquito densities are high, whereas <i>P. vivax</i> is relatively more prevalent at lower densities. Simulated interventions produce larger relative reductions in <i>P. falciparum</i> prevalence, while <i>P. vivax</i> shows greater rebounds after intervention withdrawal, particularly at low mosquito densities.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>This unified framework provides a quantitative tool to support coordinated, species-specific intervention strategies in co-endemic settings, a step toward sustainable malaria elimination.</p>","PeriodicalId":524124,"journal":{"name":"Communications health","volume":"1 1","pages":"11"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13341314/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148414687","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Longitudinal trajectories of depressive symptoms in children are associated with baseline inflammation and HIV status.","authors":"Arish Mudra Rakshasa-Loots, Sarah K Zalwango, Simon R Cox, Alla Sikorskii, Bruno Giordani, Jorem E Awadu, Amara E Ezeamama","doi":"10.1038/s44528-026-00008-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44528-026-00008-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Mental health outcomes are substantially poorer among people with HIV than the general population. We investigated whether inflammation or HIV status may play a role in the longitudinal trajectories of depressive symptoms.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This prospective cohort study involved 862 children (291 without HIV, 292 exposed to HIV, 279 with HIV) and 439 adult caregivers (165 without HIV, 274 with HIV) recruited from 2017 to 2024 from the Kawaala Health Center IV in Kampala, Uganda. High-sensitivity C-Reactive Protein (CRP) was measured in blood serum at baseline using ELISA. Depressive symptoms were assessed longitudinally using the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) at six-monthly intervals for up to 24 months (total 3212 observations), with 2% of children and 4% of adults meeting criteria for severe depressive symptoms (PHQ-9 score > 10) at baseline. Latent growth curve modelling was used to investigate interactions between HIV status and CRP concentration on the baseline (intercept) and longitudinal change (slope) of PHQ-9 scores, separately for children and adults.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Here we show that the association of baseline CRP concentrations with the intercept (β [95% confidence interval] = -0.09 [-0.18, -0.01], <i>p</i> = 0.034) and slope (<i>β</i> = 0.09 [0.03, 0.15], <i>p</i> = 0.004) of PHQ-9 score trajectories varied significantly according to HIV status among children. At higher baseline CRP concentrations, children with HIV showed lower baseline depressive symptoms relative to children without HIV. Over time, depressive symptoms increased in children with HIV but decreased in children without HIV. No differences in trajectories were observed in adults.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Our results suggest that given high baseline inflammation, recovery from depressive symptoms may be significantly slower among children living with HIV compared to those without HIV. Specific interventions to reduce inflammation may need to be combined with more regular, holistic and personalised interventions to alleviate depressive symptoms among children with HIV.</p>","PeriodicalId":524124,"journal":{"name":"Communications health","volume":"1 1","pages":"9"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13347800/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148428634","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Influenza A/H3N2 epidemiology in England during the 2025 to 2026 season: a mathematical modelling study.","authors":"James A Hay, Punya Alahakoon, Alexander Greenshields-Watson, Michelle Kendall, Mahan Ghafari, Chris Wymant, Robert Hinch, Luca Ferretti, Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths, Christophe Fraser","doi":"10.1038/s44528-026-00016-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44528-026-00016-3","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>England experienced an unusually early and rapid increase in influenza A/H3N2 subclade K infections in 2025/26. Antigenic change and a fast selective sweep raised concerns over a potentially severe season. Building on analysis conducted as the subclade emerged, we aim to compare epidemic dynamics of the 2025/26 season to previous years and to model plausible epidemiological scenarios.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We compared peak epidemic growth rates and reproduction numbers across influenza seasons from 2011/12 to 2025/26 using routine surveillance data in England. Weekly epidemic growth rates were estimated using a Gaussian random walk model, and time-varying reproduction numbers using <i>EpiEstim</i>. We also developed an age-stratified transmission model and interactive web tool to explore scenarios varying immune escape, transmissibility, and seed date, using 2022/23 as a baseline season.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Peak A/H3N2 growth rates and time-varying reproduction numbers for the 2025/26 season are of similar magnitude but earlier than previous severe seasons. Scenario analyses suggest early trends are compatible with moderate levels of immune escape, a 10% higher <i>R</i> _<i>0</i> , or an earlier seed date, though it is not possible to distinguish the relative importance of these mechanisms from these data alone.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The 2025/26 influenza season is characterised by early but not unusually rapid growth. Earlier growth does not systematically lead to especially large epidemics due to earlier susceptible depletion combined with a dampening effect from school holidays. Laboratory evidence for antibody escape does not directly translate to large reductions in population immunity, supporting the need for complementary real-time epidemiological analyses and modelling.</p>","PeriodicalId":524124,"journal":{"name":"Communications health","volume":"1 1","pages":"16"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13441895/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148687568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Substantial under-detection of human rabies cases in the United States.","authors":"Younjung Kim, Christl A Donnelly","doi":"10.1038/s44528-026-00031-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44528-026-00031-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Based on multiple instances of human-to-human rabies transmission via organ or tissue transplantation from initially undiagnosed rabies-infected donors, we estimate 856 (213-2220) human rabies deaths in the United States (US) from 2000 to 2024, meaning that only around 7% of human rabies deaths in the US were confirmed during this period.</p>","PeriodicalId":524124,"journal":{"name":"Communications health","volume":"1 1","pages":"23"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13525926/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148869740","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Short-term associations between air pollution and nocturnal cough frequency.","authors":"Tong Xia, Emil Carlsson, Mikael Kågebäck, Marco Montagna, John S Ji, Cecilia Mascolo","doi":"10.1038/s44528-026-00030-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44528-026-00030-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Air pollution remains a leading environmental risk factor for health, yet its short-term associations with early respiratory symptoms are not well characterized because population-scale symptom surveillance data are scarce. We aimed to quantify the association between short-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and nocturnal cough frequency using large-scale mobile sensing data collected across multiple countries.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We analyzed nocturnal audio recordings from users of a widely used mobile sleep application (Sleep Cycle). An artificial intelligence-based cough detection model was applied to estimate nightly cough frequency. Data were aggregated at the city-day level across 32 cities in 12 countries over approximately 500 consecutive days. We used city-specific time-series models combined through random-effects meta-analysis and multi-city pooled models adjusting for meteorological conditions and influenza activity. In addition, we conducted an event-based analysis during a major wildfire episode to evaluate the acute respiratory impacts of extreme air pollution.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Higher daily PM_2.5 concentrations were consistently associated with increased nocturnal cough frequency across all analytical approaches. In the city-specific meta-analysis, each 10 μg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 was associated with a 2.4% increase in nocturnal cough frequency (relative risk 1.024, 95% CI: 1.013-1.035). Pooled analyses showed a nonlinear exposure-response relationship, with measurable increases in cough frequency observed even at relatively low PM_2.5 concentrations. Elevated cough frequency was also observed during the wildfire episode, coinciding with substantial increases in ambient PM_2.5.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Short-term exposure to PM_2.5 is associated with increased nocturnal cough frequency at the population level, suggesting that respiratory symptoms may respond to air pollution at lower exposure levels than previously recognized. Large-scale mobile sensing of respiratory symptoms provides a feasible digital biomarker for real-time environmental health surveillance and could complement traditional public health monitoring systems.</p>","PeriodicalId":524124,"journal":{"name":"Communications health","volume":"1 1","pages":"27"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2026-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13577914/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148984612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}