Mathematical Medicine and Biology最新文献

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Oscillations in a tumor-immune system interaction model with immune response delay 具有免疫反应延迟的肿瘤-免疫系统相互作用模型中的振荡现象

Mathematical Medicine and Biology Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1093/imammb/dqae016

Zhaoxuan Huo, Jicai Huang, Yang Kuang, Shigui Ruan, Yuyue Zhang

引用次数: 0

Calibration and Comparison of SIR, SEIR/SLIR, and SLAIR Models for Influenza Dynamics: Insights from the 2016-2017 Season in the Valencian Community, Spain 校准和比较流感动态的 SIR、SEIR/SLIR 和 SLAIR 模型：西班牙巴伦西亚社区 2016-2017 年流感季节的启示

Mathematical Medicine and Biology Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1093/imammb/dqae015

Rim Adenane, Carlos Andreu-Vilarroig, Florin Avram, Rafael-Jacinto Villanueva

{"title":"Calibration and Comparison of SIR, SEIR/SLIR, and SLAIR Models for Influenza Dynamics: Insights from the 2016-2017 Season in the Valencian Community, Spain","authors":"Rim Adenane, Carlos Andreu-Vilarroig, Florin Avram, Rafael-Jacinto Villanueva","doi":"10.1093/imammb/dqae015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/imammb/dqae015","url":null,"abstract":"Influenza and influenza-like illnesses (ILI) pose significant challenges to healthcare systems globally. Mathematical models play a crucial role in understanding their dynamics, calibrating them to specific scenarios, and making projections about their evolution over time. This study proposes a calibration process for three different but well-known compartmental models - SIR, SEIR/SLIR, and SLAIR - using influenza data from the 2016-2017 season in the Valencian Community, Spain. The calibration process involves indirect calibration for the SIR and SLIR models, requiring post-processing to compare model output with data, while the SLAIR model is directly calibrated through direct comparison. Our calibration results demonstrate remarkable consistency between the SIR and SLIR models, with slight variations observed in the SLAIR model due to its unique design and calibration strategy. Importantly, all models align with existing evidence and intuitions found in the medical literature. Our findings suggest that at the onset of the epidemiological season, a significant proportion of the population (ranging from 29.08% to 43.75% of the total population) may have already entered the recovered state, likely due to immunization from the previous season. Additionally, we estimate that the percentage of infected individuals seeking healthcare services ranges from 5.7% to 12.2%. Through a well-founded and calibrated modeling approach, our study contributes to supporting, settling, and quantifying current medical issues despite the inherent uncertainties involved in influenza dynamics. The full Mathematica code can be downloaded from https://munqu.webs.upv.es/software.html.","PeriodicalId":519218,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Medicine and Biology","volume":"189 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142264900","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A systematic evaluation of the influence of macrophage phenotype descriptions on inflammatory dynamics 系统评估巨噬细胞表型描述对炎症动态的影响

Mathematical Medicine and Biology Pub Date : 2024-04-11 DOI: 10.1093/imammb/dqae004

Suliman Almansour, Joanne L Dunster, Jonathan J Crofts, Martin R Nelson

{"title":"A systematic evaluation of the influence of macrophage phenotype descriptions on inflammatory dynamics","authors":"Suliman Almansour, Joanne L Dunster, Jonathan J Crofts, Martin R Nelson","doi":"10.1093/imammb/dqae004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/imammb/dqae004","url":null,"abstract":"Macrophages play a wide range of roles in resolving the inflammatory damage that underlies many medical conditions, and have the ability to adopt different phenotypes in response to different environmental stimuli. Categorising macrophage phenotypes exactly is a difficult task, and there is disparity in the literature around the optimal nomenclature to describe these phenotypes; however, what is clear is that macrophages can exhibit both pro- and anti-inflammatory behaviours dependent upon their phenotype, rendering mathematical models of the inflammatory response potentially sensitive to their description of the macrophage populations that they incorporate. Many previous models of inflammation include a single macrophage population with both pro- and anti-inflammatory functions. Here, we build upon these existing models to include explicit descriptions of distinct macrophage phenotypes and examine the extent to which this influences the inflammatory dynamics that the models emit. We analyse our models via numerical simulation in Matlab and dynamical systems analysis in XPPAUT, and show that models that account for distinct macrophage phenotypes separately can offer more realistic steady state solutions than precursor models do (better capturing the anti-inflammatory activity of tissue resident macrophages), as well as oscillatory dynamics not previously observed. Finally, we reflect on the conclusions of our analysis in the context of the ongoing hunt for potential new therapies for inflammatory conditions, highlighting manipulation of macrophage polarisation states as a potential therapeutic target.","PeriodicalId":519218,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Medicine and Biology","volume":"47 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140603477","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0