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Time Series for Data Sciences: Analysis and Forecasting 数据科学的时间序列：分析与预测
The Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A (Statistics in Society) Pub Date : 2023-11-07 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssa/qnad134
Anoop Chaturvedi
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引用次数: 0
A Bayesian change-point detection approach to the economic evaluation of risky projects: an application to healthcare technology assessment 对风险项目进行经济评估的贝叶斯变化点检测方法：在医疗保健技术评估中的应用
The Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A (Statistics in Society) Pub Date : 2023-10-24 DOI: 10.1093/jrsssa/qnad129
Daniele Bregantini, Laetitia H M Schmitt, Jacco J J Thijssen
{"title":"A Bayesian change-point detection approach to the economic evaluation of risky projects: an application to healthcare technology assessment","authors":"Daniele Bregantini, Laetitia H M Schmitt, Jacco J J Thijssen","doi":"10.1093/jrsssa/qnad129","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnad129","url":null,"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> We propose a Bayesian hypothesis testing framework that allows for the assessment of evidence collected during a clinical trial about the cost-effectiveness of a healthcare technology. The model exploits a Bayesian updating rule that makes the link between the evidence collected in clinical research and the expected payoffs of adoption to the healthcare system. The framework takes into account the cost of decision errors in the payoff function, allowing the decision maker to compute the cost of taking a decision when evidence is far from the optimal decision triggers. We show, using a real-world cost-effectiveness study based on clinical trial evidence, how rules derived from a sequential adaptive design approach can lead to quicker decisions when compared to the value of information decision framework. Our application shows that a sequential approach has the potential to lead to quicker decisions, higher payoffs, and better health outcomes.","PeriodicalId":517419,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A (Statistics in Society)","volume":"99 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140057749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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