Nber Macroeconomics Annual最新文献_第5页

Discussion 讨论

IF 7.7 1区经济学

Nber Macroeconomics Annual Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.1086/712327

{"title":"Discussion","authors":"","doi":"10.1086/712327","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/712327","url":null,"abstract":"Erik Hurst followed up on a comment made by the discussant, John Haltiwanger. He posited that the increasing dispersion in revenue productivity across firms might arise because of differential shifts in the composition of the labor force based on human capital accumulation. Haltiwanger added that the source of dispersion in revenues per employee could also be the result of misallocation deriving from a learning process. The adoption of information and communications technologies across firms is a slow process, which would result in staggered revenue productivity gains across firms, he argued. The authors agreed that markup dispersion—themain source of productivity differentials according to their results—provides a good explanation, but it is not exhaustive. Other possible channels, like human capital, and the resulting misallocations are worth investigating, they said. The authors also sympathized with the discussant’s suggestion to extend their analysis to the sectoral level and to employ a nested CES production structure. They agreed that this methodologymight be useful to shed more light on the role of big firms in driving aggregate productivity growth. The discussion ended with a brief question by Haltiwanger on the surge of IPOs in the 1990s. He askedwhether the authors had researched their role in contributing to subsequent growth. The authors answered that they did not perform the exercise but that their framework could be employed for answering the question.","PeriodicalId":51680,"journal":{"name":"Nber Macroeconomics Annual","volume":"35 1","pages":"308 - 308"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42702249","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Comment 评论

IF 7.7 1区经济学

Nber Macroeconomics Annual Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.1086/712333

Owen M. Zidar

引用次数: 0

The Glass Ceiling and the Paper Floor: Changing Gender Composition of Top Earners since the 1980s 玻璃天花板和纸地板：20世纪80年代以来收入最高者性别构成的变化

IF 7.7 1区经济学

Nber Macroeconomics Annual Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.1086/712328

Fatih Guvenen, Greg Kaplan, Jae Song

{"title":"The Glass Ceiling and the Paper Floor: Changing Gender Composition of Top Earners since the 1980s","authors":"Fatih Guvenen, Greg Kaplan, Jae Song","doi":"10.1086/712328","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/712328","url":null,"abstract":"Since the late 1970s, the US earnings distribution has experienced profound changes. Among these changes, two of the most well-known are the increasing share of total earnings that accrues to top earners (i.e., individuals in the top 1% or top 0.1% of the earnings distribution) and the continued relative absence of women from this top-earning group. This latter phenomenon is commonly referred to as the glass ceiling, the emergence of which has spurred both debate over the appropriate policy response as well as active research into its primary causes. However, progress on both fronts has been hampered by the scarcity of empirical evidence from nationally representative data on the gender structure at the top of the earnings distribution. Our goal in this paper is to provide this necessary empirical evidence on the glass ceiling, using newer and better data than have been previously available. In doing so, we also revisit several important questions about top earners of both genders: the dynamics of their earnings, their industry composition, their age and cohort composition, and the evolution of earnings for lifetime top earners. Our interest in top earners is motivated by their disproportionately large influence on the aggregate economy. This influence operates through at least three channels. First, top earners are crucial economic actors. In the United States, individuals in the top 1% of the income distribution earn approximately 15% of aggregate before-tax income and pay about 40% of individual income taxes—more than one and a half times the amount paid by the bottom 90 percentiles—and 50% of all corporate income tax. Because this group includes virtually all high-level managers","PeriodicalId":51680,"journal":{"name":"Nber Macroeconomics Annual","volume":"35 1","pages":"309 - 373"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1086/712328","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46511088","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 8

Sources of US Wealth Inequality: Past, Present, and Future 美国财富不平等的根源:过去、现在和未来

IF 7.7 1区经济学

Nber Macroeconomics Annual Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.1086/712332

Joachim Hubmer, Per Krusell, Anthony A. Smith

{"title":"Sources of US Wealth Inequality: Past, Present, and Future","authors":"Joachim Hubmer, Per Krusell, Anthony A. Smith","doi":"10.1086/712332","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/712332","url":null,"abstract":"The distribution of wealth in most countries for which there is reliable data is strikingly uneven. There is also recent work suggesting that the wealth distribution has undergone significant movements over time, most recently with a large upward swing in dispersion in several AngloSaxon countries (Piketty 2014; Saez and Zucman 2016). For example, according to the estimates in Saez and Zucman (2016) for the United States, the share of overall wealth held by the top 1% has increased from around 25% in 1980 to more than 40% today; for the top 0.1% it has increased from less than 10% tomore than 20% over the same time period. The observed developments have generated strong reactions across the political spectrum. In his 2014 book Capital in the Twenty-First Century, Piketty is obviously motivated by the growing inequality in itself, but he also suggests that further increases in wealth concentration may lead to both economic and democratic instability. Conservatives in the United States have expressed worries as well: Is the American dream really still alive, or might it be that a large fraction of the population simply will no longer be able to productively contribute to society? Given, for example, that parental wealth and well-being are important determinants of children’s human capital accumulation, these are legitimate concerns regardless of one’s political views. These concerns, moreover, have stimulated the proposal and discussion of a number of possible changes in policy. The primary aim of the present paper is, instead of focusing on policy changes, to understand the determinants of the observed movements in wealth inequality. This aim is basic but well-motivated in light of the","PeriodicalId":51680,"journal":{"name":"Nber Macroeconomics Annual","volume":"35 1","pages":"391 - 455"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1086/712332","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41671187","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 40

Discussion 讨论

IF 7.7 1区经济学

Nber Macroeconomics Annual Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.1086/712320

J. Haltiwanger

{"title":"Discussion","authors":"J. Haltiwanger","doi":"10.1086/712320","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/712320","url":null,"abstract":"John Haltiwanger opened the discussion by bringing attention to the dataused in thepaper. The analysis useddata fromtheNational Establishment Time Series (NETS). The authors argued that the NETS is a reliable source because it aligns on several dimensions with another data set, the County Business Patterns (CBP). However, Haltiwanger argued that NETS overstates employment because of imputations. Further, NETS sales data are not reliable, as documented by Barnatchez, Crane, and Decker (“An Assessment of the National Establishment Times Series [NETS] Database,” Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017 [2017]: 110). The authors recognized that there are imputations in NETS. However, they emphasized that their findings are validated by several robustness checks. In addition, they noted that similar results hold when using a different data set, the Longitudinal Business Database (LBD). The next comments were related to the suitability of the HerfindahlHirschman Index (HHI) as ameasure ofmarket power at different levels of geographic aggregation. Jeffrey Campbell pointed out that the HHI is not a reliable measure of market power for large cities, where there are many firms in themarket and there is substantial variation across neighborhoods. He encouraged the authors to repeat their analysis for small towns. The authors responded that they replicated their results for different measures of concentration and that their findings are robust regardless of the measure considered. Erik Hurst questioned why the authors decided to start the analysis at the smallest area of aggregation, the ZIP-code level, as opposed to a larger area of aggregation, such as the county level. Seconding Campbell’s remark, the authors responded that themeasurement ofmarket power ismore reliable for smaller geographical","PeriodicalId":51680,"journal":{"name":"Nber Macroeconomics Annual","volume":"35 1","pages":"173 - 174"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1086/712320","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47521869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Discussion 讨论

IF 7.7 1区经济学

Nber Macroeconomics Annual Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.1086/712316

Valmik Prabhu, Haozhi Qi

{"title":"Discussion","authors":"Valmik Prabhu, Haozhi Qi","doi":"10.1086/712316","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/712316","url":null,"abstract":"Following up on Ricardo Reis’s discussion, Martin Eichenbaum asked a question on disagreement in models with heterogeneous beliefs, which sparked a general discussion on the topic. In practice, disagreement between agents seems to be very persistent. He asked whether the authors’ model and the modification suggested by the discussant were consistent with this observation.Alp Simsek secondedEichenbaum’s comment, pointing out that most models with dispersed information, including the authors’, have the implication that if an individualwere to elicit other agents’ expectations, shewould account for this new information. In otherwords, if average beliefs were part of the current information set, individuals would update their own beliefs in response. This does not seem to be supported by the data, he claimed. Simsek’s own empirical analysis of the Blue Chip Financial Forecasts in Ricardo Caballero and Alp Simsek (“Monetary Policy with OpinionatedMarkets” [Working Paper no. 27313, NBER, Cambridge, MA, 2020]) finds evidence in support of confident disagreement: past individual forecasts are abetter predictor for future individual forecasts than past consensus forecasts. This fact seems to indicate that forecasters have dogmatic beliefs and do not consider the other agents to have useful informationwhen forming expectations for the future. It is important to take this into account for understanding how agents respond to new information, he claimed. The authors answered to the remarks on the role of disagreement among agents arguing that it does not have material consequences for the implications of their theory. There are two arguments that support this conclusion. First, the actual level of information precision is irrelevant for shaping aggregate outcomes. It is the perceived level of precision","PeriodicalId":51680,"journal":{"name":"Nber Macroeconomics Annual","volume":"35 1","pages":"112 - 114"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1086/712316","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47382225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Comment 评论

IF 7.7 1区经济学

Nber Macroeconomics Annual Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.1086/712323

V. Ramey

引用次数: 1

Imperfect Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence and Theory 不完全宏观经济预期:证据与理论

IF 7.7 1区经济学

Nber Macroeconomics Annual Pub Date : 2020-06-01 DOI: 10.1086/712313

G. Angeletos, Zhengxin Huo, Karthik A. Sastry

引用次数: 107

Why Has the US Economy Recovered So Consistently from Every Recession in the Past 70 Years? 为什么美国经济在过去70年的每一次衰退中都如此稳定地复苏？

IF 7.7 1区经济学

Nber Macroeconomics Annual Pub Date : 2020-05-01 DOI: 10.1086/718588

Robert E. Hall, Marianna Kudlyak

{"title":"Why Has the US Economy Recovered So Consistently from Every Recession in the Past 70 Years?","authors":"Robert E. Hall, Marianna Kudlyak","doi":"10.1086/718588","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/718588","url":null,"abstract":"A remarkable fact about the historical US business cycle is that, after unemployment reached its peak in a recession, and a recovery begins, the annual reduction in the unemployment rate is stable at around one tenth of the current level of unemployment. We document this fact in a companion paper, Hall and Kudlyak (2020a). Here, we consider explanations for the surprising consistency of recoveries. We show that the evolution of the labor market from recession to recovery involves more than the direct effect of persistent unemployment of job-losers from the recession shock -- unemployment during the recovery is above normal for people who did not lose jobs during the recession. We explore models of the labor market's self-recovery that imply gradual working off of unemployment following a recession shock. We emphasize the feedback from high unemployment to the forces driving job creation. These models also explain why the recovery of market-wide unemployment is so much slower than the rate at which individual unemployed workers find new jobs. The reasons include the fact that the path that individual job-losers follow back to stable employment often includes several brief interim jobs.","PeriodicalId":51680,"journal":{"name":"Nber Macroeconomics Annual","volume":"36 1","pages":"1 - 55"},"PeriodicalIF":7.7,"publicationDate":"2020-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44725087","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 27

Innovative Growth Accounting 创新增长会计

IF 7.7 1区经济学

Nber Macroeconomics Annual Pub Date : 2020-04-01 DOI: 10.1086/712325

Peter J. Klenow, Huiyu Li

引用次数: 14