{"title":"Quantifying Vulnerability to Poverty in the Drought-prone Lowlands of Ethiopia","authors":"Emmanuel Skoufias, Katja Vinha, Berhe Mekonnen Beyene","doi":"10.1093/jae/ejad003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejad003","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract A forward-looking measure of ‘vulnerability to poverty’ is estimated and a concerted effort is made to understand the sources of vulnerability in the drought-prone lowlands of Ethiopia. Using the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey and the Welfare Monitoring Survey of 2015–16, which include additional zones in the Afar and Somali regions increasing the representativeness of the survey in pastoral areas, the analysis reveals that vulnerability is remarkably higher in the drought-prone lowlands than in the other ecological zones, even though differences in poverty rates are modest. The analysis also reveals important distinctions in the sources of vulnerability. In the drought-prone lowlands, (i) the prevalence of both poverty-induced and risk-induced vulnerability is the highest among all the ecological zones and (ii) the importance of vulnerability due to aggregate shocks, such as droughts, relative to vulnerability due to idiosyncratic shocks is higher than in the other ecological zones. These findings attest to the unique nature of the drought-prone lowlands in comparison to the other agroecological zones of Ethiopia and the need for adaptive social protection programmes targeting not only the chronically poor but also the vulnerable.","PeriodicalId":51524,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136187795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Poverty, Inequality and Social Protection Programs in Africa: Lessons from the COVID-19 Pandemic","authors":"D. Ngui, N. Ndung’u, A. Shimeles","doi":"10.1093/jae/ejac038","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejac038","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51524,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49216566","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Structural Change and Inequality in Africa","authors":"Hanan Morsy, A. Shimeles, Tiguéné Nabassaga","doi":"10.1093/jae/ejac050","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejac050","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This paper examines how inequality could be tackled through structural transformation using unit record data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for Africa. Results suggest inequality between countries tends to be higher when the share of labour employed or value-added in the agriculture sector is higher, while no association is observed for industry and services sectors contributions to GDP or employment. Within-country inequality however tends to be strongly affected by structural change. A 1 standard deviation growth in the movement of labour from low- to high-productivity sectors could decrease overall inequality by 0.5% and inequality of opportunity by 1.1%. Results from other data sources strongly support these findings suggesting that positive structural transformation could lead to sustained reduction in inequality in Africa. Other factors correlated strongly with inequality reduction include human capital, which tend to have large and significant income or asset reducing effect in Africa, particularly at higher level of education, while the pace of urbanisation exacerbates it incidence.","PeriodicalId":51524,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47407268","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
M. Niño-Zarazúa, Francesca Scaturro, V. Jordá, F. Tarp
{"title":"Income Inequality and Redistribution in Sub-Saharan Africa","authors":"M. Niño-Zarazúa, Francesca Scaturro, V. Jordá, F. Tarp","doi":"10.1093/jae/ejac053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejac053","url":null,"abstract":"A strand of the political economy literature emphasizes the effect of income inequality on growth and poverty, which materialises through redistribution. The theoretical expectation postulated by standard economic theory is that high inequality would lead to higher redistribution via the collective action of the median voter. The empirical literature testing the median voter theorem has been conducted in the context of industrialised economies. In this article, we examine the median voter hypothesis with specific reference to SSA, a region characterised by high levels of income inequality and limited redistribution. We adopt an instrumental variable approach to unpack the determinants and plausible mechanisms underpinning this relationship. In the article, we account for the effect of omitted top income earners in income inequality estimates, given their weight in the shape of the income distribution and their influence in redistributive policies. Overall, we find a positive relationship between inequality and redistribution in SSA, especially among middle-income countries. Further examination reveals that the abundance of natural resource rents seems to be the driving force affecting tax policy choices, which in turn exacerbates income inequality and undermines progressive redistribution. Thus, in assessing the relationship between inequality and redistribution, our results do not provide strong evidence to support the propositions of the median voter theorem, but instead, they call for alternative interpretations that seem to align more closely to the existence of multiple steady states.","PeriodicalId":51524,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42841613","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Alleviating Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Role of Inclusive Business Models","authors":"B. Kamgnia, A. Ahoure","doi":"10.1093/jae/ejac048","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejac048","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The study aimed to analyze the ability of inclusive business (IB) models to sustainably contribute to efforts made in alleviating poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa, with an emphasis on the cases of Côte d'Ivoire and Kenya. Data collected on these two countries revealed a clear opposite stream in the integration pattern of the populations at the bottom of the pyramid (BoP) in IB models. In Côte d'Ivoire individuals at BoPs integrate IBs mainly through the agricultural sector, getting busy with the supply of raw material, and with the distribution and/or sale of products in the value chain; thus, supporting an upstream integration. In Kenya, individual at BoPs rather are concentrated in manufacturing, with a first choice on non-permanent employees as activity in the value chain, followed by permanent employees; hence, downstreaming the integration ladder. In both countries, IB contributes positively and significantly to welfare at BoPs, especially when the IB model is implemented as part of a specific program.","PeriodicalId":51524,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49462853","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
B. Epo, Francis Menjo Baye, G. Mwabu, M. Etyang, P. Gachanja
{"title":"The Nexus between Poverty, Inequality and Growth: A Case Study of Cameroon and Kenya","authors":"B. Epo, Francis Menjo Baye, G. Mwabu, M. Etyang, P. Gachanja","doi":"10.1093/jae/ejac045","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejac045","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We conduct an in-depth analysis of the nexus between inequality of opportunity and inclusive growth in Cameroon and Kenya employing cross-sectional data collected over two time periods in each country. Empirical results show that changes in education, health and labour market endowments have large effects on household economic well-being, as proxied by total expenditures per adult equivalent. Employing the regression-based decomposition, we find that effort-based variables are associated with greater Gini inequality compared with circumstance-based variables—more so for Cameroon than Kenya. Among the effort-based variables, education in Cameroon and health in Kenya, are the main correlates of income inequality. The factual and counterfactual distribution analyses undertaken demonstrate that equalisation of human capital endowments is strongly inequality-reducing and further promotes pro-poor growth. Meanwhile, elimination of circumstance disparities in Cameroon reduces Gini inequality, enhances pro-poorness of the growth process, promotes shared-prosperity in urban areas and reduces inequality between the tails of the distribution of well-being. In Kenya, elimination of circumstance-based disparities is pro-poor improving, shared prosperity enhancing, but Gini inequality augmenting. In contrast to the Cameroonian case, equalisation of circumstances increases inequality between the tails of the distribution of well-being. The mechanisms behind these findings are probably the country-specific redistributive policies.","PeriodicalId":51524,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45604966","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Are Budget Neutral Income Floors Fiscally Viable in Sub-Saharan Africa?","authors":"N. Lustig, J. Jellema, Valentina Martinez Pabon","doi":"10.1093/jae/ejac049","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejac049","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We use microsimulations to assess whether budget-neutral universal income floors are fiscally viable in twelve Sub-Saharan African countries. We consider three universal basic income scenarios of decreasing levels of generosity: poverty line, average poverty gap and current spending on transfers and subsidies per person. The first two may not be viable because the required increase in taxes to fulfil budget neutrality is significant.","PeriodicalId":51524,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46688650","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Progress on Poverty in Africa: The Importance of Growth and Inequality","authors":"A. Fosu","doi":"10.1093/jae/ejac047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejac047","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Employing World Bank data, this paper, first, historically examines Africa's record on poverty incidence, spread and severity, as compared with other regions of the world, at the US$1.90 and US$3.20 per day (2011 PPP) poverty standards. Second, it evaluates country-specific progress on growth, poverty and inequality, and compares the ‘poverty transformation efficiency vector’ (PTEV) among African countries. Third, the study analyses the relative roles of income growth and inequality changes in explaining African countries' poverty records, through a decomposition of poverty changes using ‘optimal’ income and inequality elasticity estimates from the ‘identity’ model. The study finds that following the dismal record on poverty during the 1980s, progress on poverty has been appreciable since Africa's growth resurgence starting in the mid-1990s, and that this progress was driven mainly by income growth, consistent with the global evidence. Nonetheless, inequality often played a complementary role in most of the countries and, in a small number of cases, it was the primary driver of changes in poverty. Thus, the present study sheds light on country-specific differences in the relative roles of growth and inequality in poverty reduction on the continent, based on both qualitative and quantitative evidence. The study should, therefore, provide a useful compass to those who seek to understand country-specific situations within the African context.","PeriodicalId":51524,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47930249","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"What Can Africa Learn from a Better Understanding of the Interaction among Growth, Inequality and Poverty in the Fight against the COVID-19 Pandemic?","authors":"E. Thorbecke","doi":"10.1093/jae/ejac040","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejac040","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51524,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41859727","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Simone Schotte, Michael Danquah, Robert Darko Osei, Kunal Sen
{"title":"The Labour Market Impact of COVID-19 Lockdowns: Evidence from Ghana","authors":"Simone Schotte, Michael Danquah, Robert Darko Osei, Kunal Sen","doi":"10.1093/jae/ejac039","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejac039","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In this paper, we provide causal evidence of the immediate and near-term impact of stringent COVID-19 lockdown policies on employment outcomes, using Ghana as a case study. We take advantage of a specific policy setting, in which strict stay-at-home orders were issued and enforced in two spatially delimited areas, bringing Ghana's major metropolitan centres to a standstill, while in the rest of the country less stringent regulations were in place. Using a difference-in-differences design, we find that the 3-week lockdown had a large and significant immediate negative impact on employment in the treated districts, particularly among workers in informal self-employment. While the gap in employment between the treated and control districts had narrowed 4 months after the lockdown was lifted, we detect a persistent nationwide decline in both earnings and employment, jeopardising particularly the livelihoods of small business owners mainly operating in the informal economy.","PeriodicalId":51524,"journal":{"name":"Journal of African Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136186794","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}