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Foodborne transmission of norovirus: mechanism modelling, seasonality and policy implications (2020 System Dynamics Applications Award paper) 诺如病毒的食源性传播:机制建模、季节性和政策影响(2020年系统动力学应用奖论文)
IF 4.8 3区 管理学
System Dynamics Review Pub Date : 2022-09-27 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1719
D. Lane, Elke Husemann, Darren Holland, Abdul Khaled
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引用次数: 0
What Jay didn't tell us: hidden gems in the system dynamics practices of Jay W. Forrester 1 Jay没有告诉我们的:Jay W. Forrester的系统动力学实践中隐藏的宝石
IF 4.8 3区 管理学
System Dynamics Review Pub Date : 2022-09-22 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1721
George P. Richardson
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引用次数: 3
Using analytical equations to represent nonlinear relationships 1 使用分析方程来表示非线性关系1
IF 4.8 3区 管理学
System Dynamics Review Pub Date : 2022-09-11 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1718
J. Ríos‐Ocampo, M. Gary
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引用次数: 1
Documenting the modeling process with a standardized data structure described and implemented in DynamicVu 用DynamicVu中描述和实现的标准化数据结构记录建模过程
IF 4.8 3区 管理学
System Dynamics Review Pub Date : 2022-08-30 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1716
Warren W. Farr, Samuel D. Allen, Andrada Tomoaia‐Cotisel, P. Hovmand
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引用次数: 3
Quantifying the COVID-19 endgame: Is a new normal within reach? 量化 COVID-19 的结局：新常态是否触手可及？
IF 4.8 3区 管理学
System Dynamics Review Pub Date : 2022-08-24 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1715
Hazhir Rahmandad, John Sterman
{"title":"Quantifying the COVID-19 endgame: Is a new normal within reach?","authors":"Hazhir Rahmandad, John Sterman","doi":"10.1002/sdr.1715","DOIUrl":"10.1002/sdr.1715","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Eradication of COVID-19 is out of reach. Are we close to a \"new normal\" in which people can leave behind restrictive non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) yet face a tolerable burden of disease? The answer depends on the ongoing risks versus communities' tolerance for those risks. Using a detailed model of the COVID-19 pandemic spanning 93 countries, we estimate the biological and behavioral factors determining the risks and responses, and project the likely course of COVID-19. Infection fatality rates have fallen significantly due to vaccination, prior infections, better treatments, and the less severe Omicron variant. Yet based on their estimated tolerance for deaths, most nations are not ready to live with COVID-19 without any NPIs. Across the world the increased transmissibility of Omicron, combined with the decay of immunity, leads to repeated episodes of reinfections, hospitalizations, and deaths, complicating the emergence of a new normal in many nations. © 2022 The Authors. <i>System Dynamics Review</i> published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.</p>","PeriodicalId":51500,"journal":{"name":"System Dynamics Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2022-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9538382/pdf/SDR-9999-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"33513902","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An elementary mechanism for simultaneously modeling discrete decisions and decision times 同时建模离散决策和决策时间的基本机制
IF 4.8 3区 管理学
System Dynamics Review Pub Date : 2022-07-04 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1712
J. Yu
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引用次数: 1
Behavioral responses to risk promote vaccinating high-contact individuals first. 对风险的行为反应促使首先为高接触者接种疫苗。
IF 4.8 3区 管理学
System Dynamics Review Pub Date : 2022-07-01 Epub Date: 2022-08-23 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1714
Hazhir Rahmandad
{"title":"Behavioral responses to risk promote vaccinating high-contact individuals first.","authors":"Hazhir Rahmandad","doi":"10.1002/sdr.1714","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1714","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>How should communities prioritize COVID-19 vaccinations? Prior studies found that prioritizing the elderly and most vulnerable minimizes deaths. However, prior research has ignored how behavioral responses to risk of disease endogenously change transmission rates. We show that incorporating risk-driven behavioral responses enhances fit to data and may change prioritization to vaccinating high-contact individuals. Behavioral responses matter because deaths grow exponentially until communities are compelled to reduce contacts, with deaths stabilizing at levels that oblige higher-contact groups to sufficiently cut their interactions and slow transmissions. More lives may be saved by vaccinating and taking those high-contact groups out of transmission chains earlier because the remaining groups will take more precautions while waiting for their turn for vaccination. These findings are especially important considering the need for further vaccination in many countries, the emergence of new variants, and the expected challenge of distributing new vaccines in the coming months and years. © 2022 The Author. <i>System Dynamics Review</i> published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.</p>","PeriodicalId":51500,"journal":{"name":"System Dynamics Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2022-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://ftp.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pub/pmc/oa_pdf/34/2b/SDR-38-246.PMC9537883.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"33514189","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 10
Fons et origo: reflections on the 60th anniversary of Industrial Dynamics Fons et origo:对《工业动力》60周年的反思
IF 4.8 3区 管理学
System Dynamics Review Pub Date : 2022-07-01 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1717
D. Lane
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引用次数: 3
Pattern‐oriented analysis of system dynamics models via random forests 基于随机森林的系统动力学模型面向模式的分析
IF 4.8 3区 管理学
System Dynamics Review Pub Date : 2022-05-26 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1706
Mert Edali
{"title":"Pattern‐oriented\u0000 analysis of system dynamics models via random forests","authors":"Mert Edali","doi":"10.1002/sdr.1706","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1706","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51500,"journal":{"name":"System Dynamics Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2022-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41635110","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Reflecting on factors influencing long‐lasting organisational effects of group model‐building interventions 反思影响群体模型构建干预长期组织效应的因素
IF 4.8 3区 管理学
System Dynamics Review Pub Date : 2022-04-18 DOI: 10.1002/sdr.1705
H. Herrera, N. Videira, H. Korzilius, K. Cordova-Pozo, M.H.F. McCardle-Keurentjes
{"title":"Reflecting on factors influencing\u0000 long‐lasting\u0000 organisational effects of group model‐building interventions","authors":"H. Herrera, N. Videira, H. Korzilius, K. Cordova-Pozo, M.H.F. McCardle-Keurentjes","doi":"10.1002/sdr.1705","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1705","url":null,"abstract":":This paper focuses on participatory system dynamics as a platform for improving organisational decision making ultimately enhancing organisational performance. Based on past experiences and projects conducted by the authors, we offer reflections that aim to identify factors influencing the design and process of facilitated modelling interventions to achieve long-lasting effects, highlighting gaps in current literature and outlining a research agenda.","PeriodicalId":51500,"journal":{"name":"System Dynamics Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2022-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48363608","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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