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Reassessing the Relevance of Financial Shocks in an Estimated Heterogeneous Firm Model 在估计的异质企业模型中重新评估金融冲击的相关性
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20200447
Xing Guo
{"title":"Reassessing the Relevance of Financial Shocks in an Estimated Heterogeneous Firm Model","authors":"Xing Guo","doi":"10.1257/mac.20200447","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200447","url":null,"abstract":"I study the transmission of financial shocks using an estimated heterogeneous firm model. Following a contractionary financial shock, financially constrained firms cut investment, but unconstrained firms increase investment due to the lower capital price and interest rate. After matching the empirical dynamics of prices and the price elasticity of investment, I find a limited role of the unconstrained firms’ response in dampening the aggregate investment decline. Nonfinancial capital adjustment friction is the key to generating this result. Without the capital adjustment friction, unconstrained firms’ investment becomes unrealistically sensitive to prices, and the model would understate the financial shocks’ aggregate relevance. (JEL D25, E12, E22, G31, G32)","PeriodicalId":511891,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141706557","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Asymmetric Reciprocity and the Cyclical Behavior of Wages, Effort, and Job Creation 非对称互惠与工资、努力和就业机会创造的周期性行为
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20200321
Marco Fongoni
{"title":"Asymmetric Reciprocity and the Cyclical Behavior of Wages, Effort, and Job Creation","authors":"Marco Fongoni","doi":"10.1257/mac.20200321","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200321","url":null,"abstract":"This paper develops a search and matching framework in which workers are characterized by asymmetric reference-dependent reciprocity and firms set wages by considering the effect that these can have on workers’ effort and, therefore, on output. The cyclical response of effort to wage changes can considerably amplify shocks, independently of the cyclicality of the hiring wage, which becomes irrelevant for unemployment volatility, and firms’ expectations of downward wage rigidity in existing jobs increases the volatility of job creation. The model is consistent with evidence on hiring and incumbents’ wage cyclicality, and provides novel predictions on the dynamics of effort. (JEL E24, E32, J23, J31, J41, J64)","PeriodicalId":511891,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","volume":"229 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141708213","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
MPC Heterogeneity and the Dynamic Response of Consumption to Monetary Policy 货币政策委员会的异质性和消费对货币政策的动态响应
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20210277
Miguel Ampudia, Russell Cooper, Julia Le Blanc, Guozhong Zhu
{"title":"MPC Heterogeneity and the Dynamic Response of Consumption to Monetary Policy","authors":"Miguel Ampudia, Russell Cooper, Julia Le Blanc, Guozhong Zhu","doi":"10.1257/mac.20210277","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20210277","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies how household financial choices affect the impact of monetary policy on consumption. Based on micro data from four major euro area countries, we estimate key structural parameters using a simulated method of moments approach to match moments related to asset market participation rates, portfolio shares, and wealth-to-income ratios by education and country. The country-specific distributions of marginal propensities to consume (MPCs) out of income and financial wealth are not degenerate. Due to this MPC heterogeneity, monetary policy, operating through income and asset returns, has a differential impact on individuals within and across countries. (JEL E21, E52, G51)","PeriodicalId":511891,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","volume":"84 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141714950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Delayed Overshooting: The Case for Information Rigidities 延迟超额完成任务：信息刚性的理由
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20210212
Gernot J. Müller, Martin Wolf, Thomas Hettig
{"title":"Delayed Overshooting: The Case for Information Rigidities","authors":"Gernot J. Müller, Martin Wolf, Thomas Hettig","doi":"10.1257/mac.20210212","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20210212","url":null,"abstract":"We provide evidence that the delayed overshooting puzzle reflects a slow adjustment of exchange rate expectations to monetary policy shocks rather than a failure of uncovered interest parity. Consistent with this evidence, we put forward a New Keynesian model in which uncovered interest parity holds, but there are information rigidities: investors do not observe monetary policy shocks but learn rationally from unanticipated shifts in monetary policy about the state of the economy. We estimate the model and find it can account for the joint responses of the spot exchange rate, forward exchange rates, and excess currency returns to monetary policy shocks. (JEL D83, E12, E31, E43, E52, F31)","PeriodicalId":511891,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","volume":"5 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141700381","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Macroeconomic Frameworks: Reconciling Evidence and Model Predictions from Demand Shocks 宏观经济框架：协调需求冲击的证据和模型预测
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20210033
A. Auerbach, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Daniel Murphy
{"title":"Macroeconomic Frameworks: Reconciling Evidence and Model Predictions from Demand Shocks","authors":"A. Auerbach, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Daniel Murphy","doi":"10.1257/mac.20210033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20210033","url":null,"abstract":"How do demand shocks affect the economy? We exploit detailed data on US defense spending to examine a large set of outcome variables in response to well-identified local demand shocks, jointly examining new outcomes (e.g., firm entry and housing rents) and other key macroeconomic outcomes and elasticities that previously have been estimated separately or in settings with weaker identification. We find that government spending crowds in employment, firm entry, private consumption, and labor productivity while also increasing local housing rents. To reconcile the evidence with theory, we study a model of economic slack. (JEL E12, E21, E24, E25, H56, L11, R31)","PeriodicalId":511891,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141709695","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 9
Ambiguity Aversion and Heterogeneity in Households’ Beliefs 模糊厌恶与家庭信念的异质性
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-04-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20200141
Claudio Michelacci, Luigi Paciello
{"title":"Ambiguity Aversion and Heterogeneity in Households’ Beliefs","authors":"Claudio Michelacci, Luigi Paciello","doi":"10.1257/mac.20200141","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20200141","url":null,"abstract":"UK households that wish for lower inflation and lower nominal interest rates have higher expected inflation. We interpret the evidence through the lens of a New Keynesian model where ambiguity-averse households differ in wealth, skill, labor market participation, and the receipt of government transfers and are subject to Knightian uncertainty. Households act based on beliefs that are negatively affected by their wishes, the more so the greater the amount of uncertainty. Using indirect inference, we find substantial output costs due to uncertainty. Monetary policy uncertainty contributes little to the costs because households generally dislike monetary expansions. (JEL D12, D81, D83, E12, E31, E43, E52)","PeriodicalId":511891,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","volume":"55 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140356161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Credit Supply Shocks and Prices: Evidence from Danish Firms 信贷供应冲击与价格：来自丹麦企业的证据
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-04-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20220079
Tobias Renkin, Gabriel Züllig
{"title":"Credit Supply Shocks and Prices: Evidence from Danish Firms","authors":"Tobias Renkin, Gabriel Züllig","doi":"10.1257/mac.20220079","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20220079","url":null,"abstract":"We study the response of firms’ output prices to a cut in credit supply. We combine data on loans between Danish firms and banks with survey-based producer prices and transaction-based export unit values. Exploiting banks’ heterogeneous exposure to the global financial crisis, we show that loans to firms with relationships to exposed banks drop and lending rates increase. In response, firms raise prices by 3–5 percent. This effect is decreasing in the elasticity of firms’ demand but positive for most industrial production. Our results show that firms increase prices to raise cash when external sources of liquidity dry up. (JEL D22, E23, E31, E32, E44, G01, G21)","PeriodicalId":511891,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","volume":"61 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140356509","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Financial Frictions, Capital Misallocation, and Input-Output Linkages 金融摩擦、资本错配与投入产出联系
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-04-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20190238
Hsuan-Li Su
{"title":"Financial Frictions, Capital Misallocation, and Input-Output Linkages","authors":"Hsuan-Li Su","doi":"10.1257/mac.20190238","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20190238","url":null,"abstract":"I study how input-output linkages amplify the aggregate impact of sectoral financial distortions in a dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous capital wedges. The aggregate impact of a shock can be decomposed into weighted productivity changes and changes in allocative efficiency. A systematic uncertainty shock induces heterogenous responses in sectoral capital wedges, reducing allocative efficiency and aggregate total factor productivity (TFP). However, idiosyncratic sectoral uncertainty shocks may improve allocative efficiency and raise TFP. I then calibrate the model to US data. The network amplification magnitude on aggregate TFP ranges from 1.58 to 1.7. (JEL E22, E23, E25, E32, E44, G20, G30)","PeriodicalId":511891,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","volume":"2 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140352939","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
How to Construct Nationally Representative Firm-Level Data from the Orbis Global Database: New Facts on SMEs and Aggregate Implications for Industry Concentration 如何从 Orbis 全球数据库中构建具有国家代表性的企业级数据：中小型企业的新情况及其对产业集中度的总体影响
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-04-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20220036
Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Bent E. Sørensen, Carolina Villegas-Sánchez, V. Volosovych, Sevcan Yeşiltaş
{"title":"How to Construct Nationally Representative Firm-Level Data from the Orbis Global Database: New Facts on SMEs and Aggregate Implications for Industry Concentration","authors":"Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Bent E. Sørensen, Carolina Villegas-Sánchez, V. Volosovych, Sevcan Yeşiltaş","doi":"10.1257/mac.20220036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20220036","url":null,"abstract":"We construct nationally representative firm-level longitudinal data for European countries using financial statements from the Orbis database. We validate our data by comparing its coverage and firm size distribution to official statistics. We showcase two applications to show the importance of firm representativeness in understanding macroeconomic outcomes. First, we show that small and medium-sized firms account for a large share of aggregate economic activity. Second, we document that firm representativeness is important for calculating industry concentration trends over time as the share of economic activity accounted by top firms in an industry changes with the firm samples used. (JEL C81, D22, G30, L11, L25, L60)","PeriodicalId":511891,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","volume":"46 29","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140357959","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Monetary Policy When the Phillips Curve Is Quite Flat 菲利普斯曲线相当平坦时的货币政策
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1257/mac.20220088
P. Beaudry, Chenyu Hou, F. Portier
{"title":"Monetary Policy When the Phillips Curve Is Quite Flat","authors":"P. Beaudry, Chenyu Hou, F. Portier","doi":"10.1257/mac.20220088","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20220088","url":null,"abstract":"This paper highlights how the presence of a monetary policy cost channel can offer new insights into the relation between monetary policy and inflation when the Phillips curve is quite flat. For instance, we highlight a key condition whereby lax monetary policy can push the economy to a low-inflation trap, and we discuss how, under the same condition, standard policy rules targeting inflation may need to be modified. In the empirical part of the paper, we explore the relevance of the condition that gives rise to these observations. The results support the key condition we emphasize. (JEL E24, E31, E43, E52)","PeriodicalId":511891,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics","volume":" 113","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139393506","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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