{"title":"Nature scenario plausibility: A dynamic Bayesian network approach","authors":"Chiara Colesanti Senni , Skand Goel","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108647","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108647","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>To cope with the lack of quantifiable knowledge about the occurrence of nature-related risks, scenario analysis has emerged as a way to investigate possible futures. We argue that expressing scenario narratives as causal models – leveraging causal Bayesian graphs – opens up new avenues for designing and using scenarios. As one use case of this approach, we show how dynamic Bayesian networks to assess the plausibility of high-dimensional quantitative scenarios. We provide an algorithm that probabilistically evaluates whether a quantitative scenario is consistent with a certain narrative about nature-economy linkages. This can allow the user to choose among several available scenarios using a data-driven approach. As a demonstration, we apply this approach to data from an integrated assessment model.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"236 ","pages":"Article 108647"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144178778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"“Non-extractivist” extractivism:The valorization process of voluntary soil carbon schemes","authors":"Johannes Fehrle","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108690","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108690","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article examines the political economy of voluntary carbon farming schemes from a theoretical perspective. To do so, it introduces the concept of valorization (Inwertsetzung), which has so far been confined largely to debates in German. Originally developed to describe classic extractivism and land change in developing countries, the concept traces how natural resources are defined as, then turned into, commodities to be sold on the world market. Examining carbon farming through this lens reveals a number of prerequisites—from scientific knowledge, to technological developments and legal frameworks—that are essential parts of the valorization process, but are often not sufficiently covered in economic discussions of carbon farming. It also highlights how soil organic carbon, the material substance carbon farming is based on, is not extracted, but instead marketed as a commodity that only bears a symbolic connection to this substance: that of a “carbon credit”. This twist on classical resource extraction leads to what I call “‘non-extractivist’ extractivism”: Valorization occurs in the form of a symbolic claim rather than a tangible, physically extraction; more importantly, this practice occurs on top of, rather than instead of, the valorization of soils through regular (extractive) farming practices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"236 ","pages":"Article 108690"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144167493","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
José Bruno R.T. Fevereiro , Andrea Genovese , Ben Purvis , Oriol Vallès Codina , Marco Veronese Passarella
{"title":"Macroeconomic models for assessing the transition towards a circular economy: A systematic review","authors":"José Bruno R.T. Fevereiro , Andrea Genovese , Ben Purvis , Oriol Vallès Codina , Marco Veronese Passarella","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108669","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108669","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The Circular Economy (CE) paradigm has gained traction in both academic discourse and industrial practice. While a transition towards a CE is generally associated with more sustainable futures, less is known about its socio-economic feasibility. This article provides a systematic literature review of contributions to macroeconomic modelling which evaluate environmental and socio-economic impacts of CE interventions (classified in terms of closing supply chains, resource efficiency, residual waste management, and product lifetime extension). Differences in modelling approaches (Leontief input-output, macroeconometric input-output, and computable general equilibrium), and underlying assumptions relating to changes in final demand and technology, are found to be significant drivers of differences in the modelled outcomes of CE interventions. Through this review, various research gaps are identified, including addressing the challenges to sectoral and regional disaggregation (allowing for the modelling of international trade-offs), broader consideration of societal issues beyond GDP and employment (such as environmental, gender or transnational justice), and consideration of broader modelling dynamics (such as rebound effects, the interplay between demand and distribution, and real-financial interactions).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"236 ","pages":"Article 108669"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144167492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Claudio Cattaneo , Mariana Morena Hanbury Lemos , Viktor Humpert , Marc Montlleo , Enric Tello , Federico Demaria
{"title":"Ecological economics into action: Lessons from the Barcelona City doughnut","authors":"Claudio Cattaneo , Mariana Morena Hanbury Lemos , Viktor Humpert , Marc Montlleo , Enric Tello , Federico Demaria","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108667","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108667","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Ecological economics emphasizes the interaction between economic systems, governance, environment and society. Doughnut economics has emerged within ecological economics, aiming to ensure a good life for all within planetary boundaries. Its framework can be operationalized at multiple scales and across diverse contexts and has been adopted in over forty cities and regions worldwide. In 2021, the Municipality of Barcelona embraced doughnut economics through a consortium of civil servants, academics, and local public consultants. This collaboration involved public participatory events and the development of tailored doughnut economics tools for cities and governments, culminating in the creation of Barcelona's Portrait and a set of civil society proposals to move forward. The City Portrait is a framework that combines data and community insights to assess a city’s performance. It applies doughnut economics to cities by evaluating their local and global responsibilities through four lenses—local social, local ecological, global social, and global ecological—enabling cities to envision how they can thrive while staying within planetary boundaries and ensuring social justice. This paper discusses the lessons learned from Barcelona's experience, highlighting the potential of doughnut economics as a framework for a just and sustainable transition at the city level. We examine the interaction between scientific research, the development of sustainability indicators, and everyday politics. Finally, we offer insights into the complexities of science-society-governance relationships in advancing new economic practices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"236 ","pages":"Article 108667"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144154350","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Climate-related disaster risk in Australia: Are risks higher for disadvantaged households?","authors":"Antonia Settle , Federico Zilio , Meladel Mistica , Usha Nattala","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108686","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108686","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As climate change generates more damaging weather-related events more often, the question of who bears intensifying disaster risk becomes increasingly pertinent. Drawing on disaster sociology, the environmental justice literature and quantitative studies of disaster impacts in real-estate markets, this paper contributes to research efforts to explore distributional questions of climate risk. We examine an actual flood event in an area of Australia that is increasingly recognised as vulnerable to rising flood risk. Our analysis combines geospatial analysis of flooding in residential areas, household-level socioeconomic data and data on house prices to identify socioeconomic patterns in the impacts of a flooding disaster that indicate broader patterns in flood risk exposure and resilience with implications for longer term dynamics of climate-related inequality. Our results show not only that risk exposure was greatest amongst the most disadvantaged communities but also that the most disadvantaged incurred substantially greater losses in comparison to equally flooded locations in wealthier areas, indicating exacerbated balance sheet losses on the part of disadvantaged households who are pushed into acute financial distress as a result of the floods. Variation in both risk exposure and impacts reflect that the costs borne as a result of climate-related disasters play out distinctly amongst different socioeconomic groups. Our analysis of key data sources undertaken at a high level of granularity contributes to much needed empirical research on the socioeconomic distribution of unfolding climate-related risks outside of heavily studied US locations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"236 ","pages":"Article 108686"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144124654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Biodiversity loss from land occupation: A prefecture- and county-level assessment of biodiversity footprints in China","authors":"Xi Ji, Jie Lin, Qiuyin Ji","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108670","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108670","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Habitat destruction from land use is a key driver of biodiversity loss, projected to worsen without further interventions. Scientific assessments of land occupation's impact on biodiversity are critical to addressing this challenge. Using the LC-IMPACT model, we calculated characterization factors (CF) tailored for biodiversity footprint (BF) accounting at finer spatial scales in China. These CFs quantify biodiversity damage per unit of land use, revealing greater biodiversity loss in southern China compared to northern regions for similar activities. We conducted the first nationwide assessment of BF from land occupation at the prefecture (367 cities) and county (2850 counties) levels in China from 2006 to 2021. Key findings include: (1) overall BF increased in most prefectures, with declines mainly in the northwest and southwest; (2) cropland BF rose in northern and southern regions but fell in central areas, forest BF increased in the northwest but decreased in the southeast, grassland BF generally declined, while urban BF showed widespread growth; and (3) eastern economic regions and western agricultural zones recorded the highest BF values. The CFs and BF results provide technical tools for corporate biodiversity impact assessments and land-use policy design. This study also offers a scalable model for global biodiversity footprint accounting.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"236 ","pages":"Article 108670"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144089354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"An equation for global energy efficiency gains in the long-run","authors":"Hervé Bercegol","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108666","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108666","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This work focuses on the global economic efficiency of energy use, defined as the ratio at world scale of Gross Domestic Product to Final Energy Consumption, including food for humans and feed for draft animals. With a simple hypothesis of energy efficiency gains being proportional to economic activity, it evidences that for the last two centuries energy efficiency grew on average exponentially with the cumulative energy consumption. By extrapolating this relationship, I estimate that the global economic efficiency of energy doubled or so from the Neolithic transition up to 1820, whereas it roughly tripled since then. Concerning the present energy transition, the International Energy Agency's scenario for “Net zero emission” by 2050 would reverse a recent slowdown in efficiency gains and retrieve the trend of the last two centuries, eventually overpassing it. The equation thus provides a historical reference for analyzing the past and calibrating future energy consumption scenarios.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"236 ","pages":"Article 108666"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144089356","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Severin Reissl , Luca E. Fierro , Francesco Lamperti , Andrea Roventini
{"title":"The DSK stock-flow consistent agent-based integrated assessment model","authors":"Severin Reissl , Luca E. Fierro , Francesco Lamperti , Andrea Roventini","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108641","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108641","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We present an updated, stock-flow consistent version of the ‘Dystopian Schumpeter meeting Keynes’ agent-based integrated assessment model. By embedding the model in a fully specified accounting system, all balance sheet items and financial flows can be explicitly and consistently tracked throughout a simulation. This allows for improved analysis of climate change and climate policy scenarios in terms of their systemic implications for agent and sector-level balance sheet dynamics and financial stability. We provide an extensive description of the updated model, representing the most detailed outline of a model from the well-established ‘Keynes + Schumpeter’ family available to date. Following a discussion of calibration and validation, we present a range of example scenarios.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"236 ","pages":"Article 108641"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144089355","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The hidden dimension of low-carbon public transport policies: From biodiversity conservation to user preferences","authors":"Stanislas Rigal , Coralie Calvet , Léa Tardieu , Sébastien Roussel , Anne-Charlotte Vaissière","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108668","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108668","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Transport infrastructures dedicated to low-carbon public transport are seen as a central tool in public policy strategies to mitigate climate change. Yet, the development of transport infrastructures has significant direct and indirect negative effects on biodiversity and social acceptability of these impacts remain little assessed. In this study, we analyse potential impacts of 20 tramway existing projects in France and social preferences with regard to their ecological and landscape integration. Using a discrete choice experiment on 1000 respondents, we show that users, even the most time constrained, are accepting an average travel time lengthening of 15 %, if tramway project integration retains a more wooded landscape, more diverse and abundant species and access to a natural area. We show that brief information provided on the state of biodiversity through framing encourages environmental consideration. We quantify the estimated impact of these projects on the naturalness of habitats and the buffer effect that project ecological integration could allow. These results highlight the non-negligible ecological impact of low-carbon transport infrastructures. They underline the need to consider climate change mitigation strategies in tandem with biodiversity preservation, while taking into account user preferences which affect the acceptability of the ecological and landscape integration of these projects.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"236 ","pages":"Article 108668"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144099725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Public perceptions of biodiversity and the value of its conservation","authors":"Kennet Uggeldahl , Søren Bøye Olsen , Thomas Lundhede , Jette Bredahl Jacobsen","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108681","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108681","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Nature and biodiversity are in an unprecedented decline. One of the main policy solutions for reversing this trend involves putting a monetary value on biodiversity impacts. However, one of the concerns about valuing changes in biodiversity using economic valuation methods revolves around the methodological assumption that the public accurately and adequately understands and perceives this inherently abstract and complex concept. Yet, few studies have investigated what the public actually perceives as biodiversity, and what their perceptions of its value are. We use Q-methodology to explore this. We find that the public's <em>perceptions of biodiversity</em> to a large degree align with the main elements of the scientific definitions of the concept, and also include concepts linked to biodiversity, such as naturalness, connectedness and balance. Further, we find perceptions of the <em>value of biodiversity conservation</em> to include instrumental as well as intrinsic values, with specific arguments such as a human responsibility to protect nature and biodiversity playing an important part. Our findings suggest that using more comprehensive representations of changes in biodiversity in stated preference studies, rather than the commonly used simplifying indicators, better aligns with people's underlying perceptions of the good being valued.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51021,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Economics","volume":"236 ","pages":"Article 108681"},"PeriodicalIF":6.6,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144084042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}