The Cryosphere最新文献

{"title":"The influence of glacial landscape evolution on Scandinavian ice-sheet dynamics and dimensions","authors":"G. Jungdal-Olesen, Jane Lund Andersen, Andreas Born, V. Pedersen","doi":"10.5194/tc-18-1517-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1517-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The Scandinavian topography and bathymetry have been shaped by ice through numerous glacial cycles in the Quaternary. In this study, we investigate how the changing morphology has influenced the Scandinavian ice sheet (SIS) in return. We use a higher-order ice-sheet model to simulate the SIS through a glacial period on three different topographies, representing different stages of glacial landscape evolution in the Quaternary. By forcing the three experiments with the same climate conditions, we isolate the effects of a changing landscape morphology on the evolution and dynamics of the ice sheet. We find that early Quaternary glaciations in Scandinavia were limited in extent and volume by the pre-glacial bathymetry until glacial deposits filled depressions in the North Sea and built out the Norwegian shelf. From middle–late Quaternary (∼0.5 Ma) the bathymetry was sufficiently filled to allow for a faster southward expansion of the ice sheet causing a relative increase in ice-sheet volume and extent. Furthermore, we show that the formation of The Norwegian Channel during recent glacial periods restricted southward ice-sheet expansion, only allowing for the ice sheet to advance into the southern North Sea close to glacial maxima. Finally, our experiments indicate that different stretches of The Norwegian Channel may have formed in distinct stages during glacial periods since ∼0.5 Ma. These results highlight the importance of accounting for changes in landscape morphology through time when inferring ice-sheet history from ice-volume proxies and when interpreting climate variability from past ice-sheet extents.\u0000","PeriodicalId":509217,"journal":{"name":"The Cryosphere","volume":"62 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140739399","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamical response of the southwestern Laurentide Ice Sheet to rapid Bølling–Allerød warming","authors":"S. Norris, M. Margold, D. Evans, N. Atkinson, D. Froese","doi":"10.5194/tc-18-1533-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1533-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The shift in climate that occurred between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the Early Holocene (ca. 18–12 kyr BP) displayed rates of temperature increase similar to present-day warming trends. The most rapid recorded changes in temperature occurred during the abrupt climate oscillations known as the Bølling–Allerød interstadial (14.7–12.9 kyr BP) and the Younger Dryas stadial (12.9–11.7 kyr BP). Reconstructing ice sheet dynamics during these climate oscillations provides the opportunity to assess long-term ice sheet evolution in reaction to a rapidly changing climate. Here, we use glacial geomorphological inversion methods (flowsets) to reconstruct the ice flow dynamics and the marginal retreat pattern of the southwestern sector of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (SWLIS). We combine our reconstruction with a recently compiled regional deglaciation chronology to depict ice flow dynamics that encompass the time period from pre-LGM to the Early Holocene. Our reconstruction portrays three macroscale reorganizations in the orientation and dynamics of ice streaming followed by regional deglaciation associated with rapid warming during the Bølling–Allerød interstadial. Initial westward flow is documented, likely associated with an early set of ice streams that formed during the advance to the LGM. During the LGM ice streaming displays a dominant north to south orientation. Ice sheet thinning at ∼15 ka is associated with a macroscale reorganization in ice stream flow, with a complex of ice streams recording south-eastward flow. A second macroscale reorganization in ice flow is then observed at ∼14 ka, in which southwestern ice flow is restricted to the Hay, Peace, Athabasca, and Churchill river lowlands. Rates of ice sheet retreat then slowed considerably during the Younger Dryas stadial; at this time, the ice margin was situated north of the Canadian Shield boundary and ice flow continued to be sourced from the northeast. Resulting from these changes in ice sheet dynamics, we recognize a three-part pattern of deglacial landform zonation within the SWLIS characterized by active ice margin recession, stagnation and downwasting punctuated by local surging (terrestrial ice sheet collapse): the outer deglacial zone contains large recessional moraines aligned with the direction of active ice margin retreat; the intermediate deglacial zone contains large regions of hummocky and stagnation terrain, in some areas crosscut by the signature of local surges, reflecting punctuated stagnation and downwasting; and the inner deglacial zone contains inset recessional moraines demarcating progressive regional ice margin retreat. We attribute these macroscale changes in ice flow geometry and associated deglacial behaviour to external climatic controls during the Bølling–Allerød and Younger Dryas but also recognize the role of internal (glaciological, lithological and topographic) controls in SWLIS dynamics.\u0000","PeriodicalId":509217,"journal":{"name":"The Cryosphere","volume":"107 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140740892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Snow water equivalent retrieved from X- and dual Ku-band scatterometer measurements at Sodankylä using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method","authors":"Jinmei Pan, M. Durand, J. Lemmetyinen, Desheng Liu, Jiancheng Shi","doi":"10.5194/tc-18-1561-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1561-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Radar at high frequency is a promising technique for fine-resolution snow water equivalent (SWE) mapping. In this paper, we extend the Bayesian-based Algorithm for SWE Estimation (BASE) from passive to active microwave (AM) application and test it using ground-based backscattering measurements at three frequencies (X and dual Ku bands; 10.2, 13.3, and 16.7 GHz), with VV polarization obtained at a 50° incidence angle from the Nordic Snow Radar Experiment (NoSREx) in Sodankylä, Finland. We assumed only an uninformative prior for snow microstructure, in contrast with an accurate prior required in previous studies. Starting from a biased monthly SWE prior from land surface model simulation, two-layer snow state variables and single-layer soil variables were iterated until their posterior distribution could stably reproduce the observed microwave signals. The observation model is the Microwave Emission Model of Layered Snowpacks 3 and Active (MEMLS3&a) based on the improved Born approximation. Results show that BASE-AM achieved an RMSE of ∼ 10 cm for snow depth and less than 30 mm for SWE, compared with the RMSE of ∼ 20 cm snow depth and ∼ 50 mm SWE from priors. Retrieval errors are significantly larger when BASE-AM is run using a single snow layer. The results support the potential of X- and Ku-band radar for SWE retrieval and show that the role of a precise snow microstructure prior in SWE retrieval may be substituted by an SWE prior from exterior sources.\u0000","PeriodicalId":509217,"journal":{"name":"The Cryosphere","volume":"12 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140735979","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A microstructure-based parameterization of the effective anisotropic elasticity tensor of snow, firn, and bubbly ice","authors":"Kavitha Sundu, J. Freitag, Kévin Fourteau, H. Löwe","doi":"10.5194/tc-18-1579-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1579-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Quantifying the link between microstructure and effective elastic properties of snow, firn, and bubbly ice is essential for many applications in cryospheric sciences. The microstructure of snow and ice can be characterized by different types of fabrics (crystallographic and geometrical), which give rise to macroscopically anisotropic elastic behavior. While the impact of the crystallographic fabric has been extensively studied in deep firn, the present work investigates the influence of the geometrical fabric over the entire range of possible volume fractions. To this end, we have computed the effective elasticity tensor of snow, firn, and ice by finite-element simulations based on 391 X-ray tomography images comprising samples from the laboratory, the Alps, Greenland, and Antarctica. We employed a variant of Eshelby's tensor that has been previously utilized for the parameterization of thermal and dielectric properties of snow and utilized Hashin–Shtrikman bounds to capture the nonlinear interplay between density and geometrical anisotropy. From that we derive a closed-form parameterization for all components of the (transverse isotropic) elasticity tensor for all volume fractions using two fit parameters per tensor component. Finally, we used the Thomsen parameter to compare the geometrical anisotropy to the maximal theoretical crystallographic anisotropy in bubbly ice. While the geometrical anisotropy clearly dominates up to ice volume fractions of ϕ≈0.7, a thorough understanding of elasticity in bubbly ice may require a coupled elastic theory that includes geometrical and crystallographic anisotropy.\u0000","PeriodicalId":509217,"journal":{"name":"The Cryosphere","volume":"16 2S1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140737341","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Characterizing sub-glacial hydrology using radar simulations","authors":"Chris Pierce, C. Gerekos, Mark Skidmore, Lucas Beem, Don Blankenship, Won Sang Lee, Ed Adams, Choon-Ki Lee, Jamey Stutz","doi":"10.5194/tc-18-1495-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1495-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The structure and distribution of sub-glacial water directly influences Antarctic ice mass loss by reducing or enhancing basal shear stress and accelerating grounding line retreat. A common technique for detecting sub-glacial water involves analyzing the spatial variation in reflectivity from an airborne radar echo sounding (RES) survey. Basic RES analysis exploits the high dielectric contrast between water and most other substrate materials, where a reflectivity increase ≥ 15 dB is frequently correlated with the presence of sub-glacial water. There are surprisingly few additional tools to further characterize the size, shape, or extent of hydrological systems beneath large ice masses. We adapted an existing radar backscattering simulator to model RES reflections from sub-glacial water structures using the University of Texas Institute for Geophysics (UTIG) Multifrequency Airborne Radar Sounder with Full-phase Assessment (MARFA) instrument. Our series of hypothetical simulation cases modeled water structures from 5 to 50 m wide, surrounded by bed materials of varying roughness. We compared the relative reflectivity from rounded Röthlisberger channels and specular flat canals, showing both types of channels exhibit a positive correlation between size and reflectivity. Large (> 20 m), flat canals can increase reflectivity by more than 20 dB, while equivalent Röthlisberger channels show only modest reflectivity gains of 8–13 dB. Changes in substrate roughness may also alter observed reflectivity by 3–6 dB. All of these results indicate that a sophisticated approach to RES interpretation can be useful in constraining the size and shape of sub-glacial water features. However, a highly nuanced treatment of the geometric context is necessary. Finally, we compared simulated outputs to actual reflectivity from a single RES flight line collected over Thwaites Glacier in 2022. The flight line crosses a previously proposed Röthlisberger channel route, with an obvious bright bed reflection in the radargram. Through multiple simulations comparing various water system geometries, such as canals and sub-glacial lakes, we demonstrated the important role that topography and water geometry can play in observed RES reflectivity. From the scenarios that we tested, we concluded the bright reflector from our RES flight line cannot be a Röthlisberger channel but could be consistent with a series of flat canals or a sub-glacial lake. However, we note our simulations were not exhaustive of all possible sub-glacial water configurations. The approach outlined here has broad applicability for studying the basal environment of large glaciers. We expect to apply this technique when constraining the geometry and extent of many sub-glacial hydrologic structures in the future. Further research may also include comprehensive investigations of the impact of sub-glacial roughness, substrate heterogeneity, and computational efficiencies enabling more complex and complete si","PeriodicalId":509217,"journal":{"name":"The Cryosphere","volume":"2 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140745428","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Retrieval of sea ice drift in the Fram Strait based on data from Chinese satellite HaiYang (HY-1D)","authors":"Dunwang Lu, Jianqiang Liu, Lijian Shi, Tao Zeng, Bin Cheng, Suhui Wu, Manman Wang","doi":"10.5194/tc-18-1419-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1419-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Melting of sea ice in the Arctic has accelerated due to global warming. The Fram Strait (FS) serves as a crucial pathway for sea ice export from the Arctic to the North Atlantic Ocean. Monitoring sea ice drift (SID) in the FS provides insight into how Arctic sea ice responds to the climate change. The SID has been retrieved from Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR), Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E), and further exploration is needed for the retrieval of SID using optical imagery. In this paper, we retrieve SID in the FS using the Chinese HaiYang1-D (HY-1D) satellite equipped with the Coastal Zone Imager (CZI). A multi-template matching technique is employed to calculate the cross-correlation, and subpixel estimation is used to locate displacement vectors from the cross-correlation matrix. The dataset covering March to May 2021 was divided into hourly and daily intervals for analysis, and validation was performed using Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) SAR-based product and International Arctic Buoy Programme (IABP) buoy. A comparison with the CMEMS SID product revealed a high correlation with the daily interval dataset; however, due to the spatial and temporal variability in the sea ice motion, differences are observed with the hourly interval dataset. Additionally, validation with the IABP buoys yielded a velocity bias of −0.005 m s−1 and RMSE of 0.031 m s−1 for the daily interval dataset, along with a flow direction bias of 0.002 rad and RMSE of 0.009 rad, respectively. For the hourly interval dataset, the velocity bias was negligible (0 m s−1), with a RMSE of 0.036 m s−1, while the flow direction bias was 0.003 rad, with a RMSE of 0.010 rad. In addition, during the validation with buoys, we found that the accuracy of retrieving the SID flow direction is distinctly interrelated with the sea ice displacement.\u0000","PeriodicalId":509217,"journal":{"name":"The Cryosphere","volume":"37 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140372444","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Review article: Terrestrial dissolved organic carbon in northern permafrost","authors":"Liam Heffernan, D. Kothawala, Lars J. Tranvik","doi":"10.5194/tc-18-1443-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1443-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. As the permafrost region warms and permafrost soils thaw, vast stores of soil organic carbon (C) become vulnerable to enhanced microbial decomposition and lateral transport into aquatic ecosystems as dissolved organic carbon (DOC). The mobilization of permafrost soil C can drastically alter the net northern permafrost C budget. DOC entering aquatic ecosystems becomes biologically available for degradation as well as other types of aquatic processing. However, it currently remains unclear which landscape characteristics are most relevant to consider in terms of predicting DOC concentrations entering aquatic systems from permafrost regions. Here, we conducted a systematic review of 111 studies relating to, or including, concentrations of DOC in terrestrial permafrost ecosystems in the northern circumpolar region published between 2000 and 2022. We present a new permafrost DOC dataset consisting of 2845 DOC concentrations, collected from the top 3 m in permafrost soils across the northern circumpolar region. Concentrations of DOC ranged from 0.1 to 500 mg L−1 (median = 41 mg L−1) across all permafrost zones, ecoregions, soil types, and thermal horizons. Across the permafrost zones, the highest median DOC concentrations were in the sporadic permafrost zone (101 mg L−1), while lower concentrations were found in the discontinuous (60 mg L−1) and continuous (59 mg L−1) permafrost zones. However, median DOC concentrations varied in these zones across ecosystem type, with the highest median DOC concentrations in each ecosystem type of 66 and 63 mg L−1 found in coastal tundra and permafrost bog ecosystems, respectively. Coastal tundra (130 mg L−1), permafrost bogs (78 mg L−1), and permafrost wetlands (57 mg L−1) had the highest median DOC concentrations in the permafrost lens, representing a potentially long-term store of DOC. Other than in Yedoma ecosystems, DOC concentrations were found to increase following permafrost thaw and were highly constrained by total dissolved nitrogen concentrations. This systematic review highlights how DOC concentrations differ between organic- or mineral-rich deposits across the circumpolar permafrost region and identifies coastal tundra regions as areas of potentially important DOC mobilization. The quantity of permafrost-derived DOC exported laterally to aquatic ecosystems is an important step for predicting its vulnerability to decomposition.\u0000","PeriodicalId":509217,"journal":{"name":"The Cryosphere","volume":"142 26","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140369200","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Subglacial valleys preserved in the highlands of south and east Greenland record restricted ice extent during past warmer climates","authors":"G. Paxman, S. Jamieson, A. Dolan, M. J. Bentley","doi":"10.5194/tc-18-1467-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1467-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. The Greenland Ice Sheet is a key contributor to contemporary global sea level rise, but its long-term history and response to episodes of warming in Earth's geological past remain uncertain. The terrain covered by the ice sheet comprises ∼ 79 % of Greenland and ∼ 1.1 % of the Earth's land surface and contains geomorphological records that may provide valuable insights into past ice-sheet behaviour. Here we use ice surface morphology and radio-echo sounding data to identify ice-covered valleys within the highlands of southern and eastern Greenland and use numerical ice-sheet modelling to constrain the climatological and glaciological conditions responsible for valley incision. Our mapping reveals intricate subglacial valley networks with morphologies that are indicative of substantial glacial modification of an inherited fluvial landscape, yet many of these valleys are presently situated beneath cold-based, slow-moving (i.e. non-erosive) ice. We use the morphology of the valleys and our simple ice-sheet model experiments to infer that incision likely occurred beneath erosive mountain valley glaciers during one or more phases of Greenland's glacial history when ice was restricted to the southern and eastern highlands and when Greenland's contribution to barystatic sea level was up to +7 m relative to today. We infer that this valley incision primarily occurred prior to the growth of a continental-scale ice sheet, most likely during the late Miocene (ca. 7–5 Ma) and/or late Pliocene (ca. 3.6–2.6 Ma). Our findings therefore provide new data-based constraints on early Greenland Ice Sheet extent and dynamics that can serve as valuable boundary conditions in models of regional and global palaeoclimate during past warm periods that are important analogues for climate change in the 21st century and beyond.\u0000","PeriodicalId":509217,"journal":{"name":"The Cryosphere","volume":"136 27","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140369885","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sea-ice variations and trends during the Common Era in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean","authors":"A. L. Dauner, F. Schenk, K. Power, Maija Heikkilä","doi":"10.5194/tc-18-1399-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1399-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Sea ice is crucial in regulating the heat balance between the ocean and atmosphere and quintessential for supporting the prevailing Arctic food web. Due to limited and often local data availability back in time, the sensitivity of sea-ice proxies to long-term climate changes is not well constrained, which renders any comparison with palaeoclimate model simulations difficult. Here we compiled a set of marine sea-ice proxy records with a relatively high temporal resolution of at least 100 years, covering the Common Era (past 2k years) in the Greenland–North Atlantic sector of the Arctic to explore the presence of coherent long-term trends and common low-frequency variability, and we compared those data with transient climate model simulations. We used cluster analysis and empirical orthogonal functions to extract leading modes of sea-ice variability, which efficiently filtered out local variations and improved comparison between proxy records and model simulations. We find that a compilation of multiple proxy-based sea-ice reconstructions accurately reflects general long-term changes in sea-ice history, consistent with simulations from two transient climate models. Although sea-ice proxies have varying mechanistic relationships to sea-ice cover, typically differing in habitat or seasonal representation, the long-term trend recorded by proxy-based reconstructions showed a good agreement with summer minimum sea-ice area from the model simulations. The short-term variability was not as coherent between proxy-based reconstructions and model simulations. The leading mode of simulated sea ice associated with the multidecadal to centennial timescale presented a relatively low explained variance and might be explained by changes in solar radiation and/or inflow of warm Atlantic waters to the Arctic Ocean. Short variations in proxy-based reconstructions, however, are mainly associated with local factors and the ecological nature of the proxies. Therefore, a regional or large-scale view of sea-ice trends necessitates multiple spatially spread sea-ice proxy-based reconstructions, avoiding confusion between long-term regional trends and short-term local variability. Local-scale sea-ice studies, in turn, benefit from reconstructions from well-understood individual research sites.\u0000","PeriodicalId":509217,"journal":{"name":"The Cryosphere","volume":"16 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140374685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling the timing of Patagonian Ice Sheet retreat in the Chilean Lake District from 22–10 ka","authors":"J. Cuzzone, Matias Romero, S. Marcott","doi":"10.5194/tc-18-1381-2024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-1381-2024","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract. Studying the retreat of the Patagonian Ice Sheet (PIS) during the last deglaciation represents an important opportunity to understand how ice sheets outside the polar regions have responded to deglacial changes in temperature and large-scale atmospheric circulation. At the northernmost extension of the PIS during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the Chilean Lake District (CLD) was influenced by the southern westerly winds (SWW), which strongly modulated the hydrologic and heat budgets of the region. Despite progress in constraining the nature and timing of deglacial ice retreat across this area, considerable uncertainty in the glacial history still exists due to a lack of geologic constraints on past ice margin change. Where the glacial chronology is lacking, ice sheet models can provide important insight into our understanding of the characteristics and drivers of deglacial ice retreat. Here we apply the Ice Sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) to simulate the LGM and last deglacial ice history of the PIS across the CLD at high spatial resolution (450 m). We present a transient simulation of ice margin change across the last deglaciation using climate inputs from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) Trace-21ka experiment. At the LGM, the simulated ice extent across the CLD agrees well with the most comprehensive reconstruction of PIS ice history (PATICE). Coincident with deglacial warming, ice retreat ensues after 19 ka, with large-scale ice retreat occurring across the CLD between 18 and 16.5 ka. By 17 ka, the northern portion of the CLD becomes ice free, and by 15 ka, ice only persists at high elevations as mountain glaciers and small ice caps. Our simulated ice history agrees well with PATICE for early deglacial ice retreat but diverges at and after 15 ka, where the geologic reconstruction suggests the persistence of an ice cap across the southern CLD until 10 ka. However, given the high uncertainty in the geologic reconstruction of the PIS across the CLD during the later deglaciation, this work emphasizes a need for improved geologic constraints on past ice margin change. While deglacial warming drove the ice retreat across this region, sensitivity tests reveal that modest variations in wintertime precipitation (∼10 %) can modulate the pacing of ice retreat by up to 2 ka, which has implications when comparing simulated outputs of ice margin change to geologic reconstructions. While we find that TraCE-21ka simulates large-scale changes in the SWW across the CLD that are consistent with regional paleoclimate reconstructions, the magnitude of the simulated precipitation changes is smaller than what is found in proxy records. From our sensitivity analysis, we can deduce that larger anomalies in precipitation, as found in paleoclimate proxies, may have had a large impact on modulating the magnitude and timing of deglacial ice retreat. This fact highlights an additional need for better con","PeriodicalId":509217,"journal":{"name":"The Cryosphere","volume":"72 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140378274","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}