American Statistician最新文献

LASSO-based Survival Prediction Modelling with Multiply Imputed Data: A Case Study in Tuberculosis Mortality Prediction 基于lasso的多重输入数据生存预测模型：肺结核死亡率预测案例研究

IF 1.8 4区数学

American Statistician Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1080/00031305.2025.2526545

Md. Belal Hossain, Mohsen Sadatsafavi, James C. Johnston, Hubert Wong, Victoria J. Cook, Mohammad Ehsanul Karim

引用次数: 0

A Cornucopia of Maximum Likelihood Algorithms 极大似然算法的聚宝盆

IF 1.8 4区数学

American Statistician Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1080/00031305.2025.2526535

Kenneth Lange, Xun-Jian Li, Hua Zhou

引用次数: 0

On Devon Allen’s Disqualification at the 2022 World Track and Field Championships 德文·艾伦在2022年世界田径锦标赛上被取消资格

IF 1.8 4区数学

American Statistician Pub Date : 2025-06-04 DOI: 10.1080/00031305.2025.2515869

Owen Fiore, Elizabeth D. Schifano, Jun Yan

{"title":"On Devon Allen’s Disqualification at the 2022 World Track and Field Championships","authors":"Owen Fiore, Elizabeth D. Schifano, Jun Yan","doi":"10.1080/00031305.2025.2515869","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00031305.2025.2515869","url":null,"abstract":"Devon Allen’s disqualification at the men’s 110-meter hurdle final at the 2022 World Track and Field Championships, due to a reaction time (RT) of 0.099 seconds—just 0.001 seconds below the allowable threshold—sparked widespread debate over the fairness and validity of RT rules. This study investigates two key issues: variations in timing systems and the justification for the 0.1-second disqualification threshold. We pooled RT data from men’s 110-meter hurdles and 100-meter dash, as well as women’s 100-meter hurdles and 100-meter dash, spanning national and international competitions. Using a rank-sum test for clustered data, we compared RTs across multiple competitions, while a generalized Gamma model with random effects for venue and heat was applied to evaluate the threshold. Our analyses reveal significant differences in RTs between the 2022 World Championships and other competitions, pointing to systematic variations in timing systems. Additionally, the model shows that RTs below 0.1 seconds, though rare, are physiologically plausible. These findings highlight the need for standardized timing protocols and a re-evaluation of the 0.1-second disqualification threshold to promote fairness in elite competition.","PeriodicalId":50801,"journal":{"name":"American Statistician","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144219095","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Bayesian model checking by betting: A game-theoretic alternative to Bayesian p -values and classical Bayes factors 通过投注检验贝叶斯模型：贝叶斯p值和经典贝叶斯因子的博弈论替代方案

IF 1.8 4区数学

American Statistician Pub Date : 2025-06-04 DOI: 10.1080/00031305.2025.2507764

David R. Bickel

{"title":"Bayesian model checking by betting: A game-theoretic alternative to Bayesian p -values and classical Bayes factors","authors":"David R. Bickel","doi":"10.1080/00031305.2025.2507764","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00031305.2025.2507764","url":null,"abstract":"A strictly Bayesian model consists of a set of possible data distributions and a prior distribution over that set. If there are other models available, how well they predicted the data may be compared using Bayes factors. If not, a model may be checked using a Bayesian p-value such as a prior predictive p-value or a posterior predictive p-value. However, recent criticisms of ordinary p-values apply with equal force against Bayesian p-values. Many of those criticisms are overcome by e-values, martingales interpreted as the amount of evidence discrediting a null hypothesis, measured as a payoff for betting against it.This paper proposes the use of e-values to check Bayesian models by testing their prior predictive distributions as null hypotheses. Two generally applicable methods for checking strictly Bayesian models are provided. The first method calibrates Bayesian p-values by transforming them into Bayesian e-values. The second method uses Bayes factors or their approximations as Bayesian e-values.A robust Bayesian model, a set of strictly Bayesian models, may be checked using various functions that use the e-values of those strictly Bayesian models. Other functions measure how much the data support a Bayesian model. Relations to possibility theory are discussed.","PeriodicalId":50801,"journal":{"name":"American Statistician","volume":"176 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144219094","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

An Undergraduate Course on the Statistical Principles of Research Study Design 研究性研究设计的统计原理本科课程

IF 1.8 4区数学

American Statistician Pub Date : 2025-05-21 DOI: 10.1080/00031305.2025.2509664

Lee Kennedy-Shaffer

{"title":"An Undergraduate Course on the Statistical Principles of Research Study Design","authors":"Lee Kennedy-Shaffer","doi":"10.1080/00031305.2025.2509664","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00031305.2025.2509664","url":null,"abstract":"The undergraduate curriculum in statistics and data science is undergoing changes to accommodate new methods, newly interested students, and the changing role of statistics in society. Because of this, it is more important than ever that students understand the role of study design and how to formulate meaningful scientific and statistical research questions. While the traditional Design of Experiments course is still extremely valuable for students heading to industry and research careers, a broader study design course that incorporates survey sampling, observational studies, and the basics of causal inference with randomized experiment design is particularly useful for students with a wide range of applied interests. Here, I describe such a course at a small liberal arts college, along with ways to adapt it to meet different student and instructor background and interests. The course serves as a valuable bridge to advanced statistical coursework, meets key statistical literacy and communication learning goals, and can be tailored to the desired level of computational and mathematical fluency. Through reading, discussing, and critiquing actual published research studies, students learn that statistics is a living discipline with real consequences and become better consumers and producers of scientific research and data-driven insights.","PeriodicalId":50801,"journal":{"name":"American Statistician","volume":"155 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144113683","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Zero-Truncated Modelling in a Meta-Analysis on Suicide Data after Bariatric Surgery 零截断模型在减肥手术后自杀数据荟萃分析中的应用

IF 1.8 4区数学

American Statistician Pub Date : 2025-05-20 DOI: 10.1080/00031305.2025.2507380

Layna Charlie Dennett, Antony Overstall, Dankmar Böhning

引用次数: 0

Flexible distributed lag models for count data using mgcv 使用mgcv计数数据的灵活分布式滞后模型

IF 1.8 4区数学

American Statistician Pub Date : 2025-05-18 DOI: 10.1080/00031305.2025.2505514

Theo Economou, Daphne Parliari, Aurelio Tobias, Laura Dawkins, Hamish Steptoe, Christophe Sarran, Oliver Stoner, Rachel Lowe, Jos Lelieveld

引用次数: 0

The Loser’s Curse and the Critical Role of the Utility Function 失败者的诅咒与效用函数的关键作用

IF 1.8 4区数学

American Statistician Pub Date : 2025-05-16 DOI: 10.1080/00031305.2025.2505512

Ryan S. Brill, Abraham J. Wyner

{"title":"The Loser’s Curse and the Critical Role of the Utility Function","authors":"Ryan S. Brill, Abraham J. Wyner","doi":"10.1080/00031305.2025.2505512","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00031305.2025.2505512","url":null,"abstract":"A longstanding question in the judgment and decision making literature is whether experts, even in high-stakes environments, exhibit the same cognitive biases observed in controlled experiments with inexperienced participants. Massey and Thaler (2013) claim to have found an example of bias and irrationality in expert decision making: general managers’ behavior in the National Football League draft pick trade market. They argue that general managers systematically overvalue top draft picks, which generate less surplus value on average than later first-round picks, a phenomenon known as the loser’s curse. Their conclusion hinges on the assumption that general managers should use expected surplus value as their utility function for evaluating draft picks. This assumption, however, is neither explicitly justified nor necessarily aligned with the strategic complexities of constructing a National Football League roster. In this paper, we challenge their framework by considering alternative utility functions, particularly those that emphasize the acquisition of transformational players––those capable of dramatically increasing a team’s chances of winning the Super Bowl. Under a decision rule that prioritizes the probability of acquiring elite players, which we construct from a novel Bayesian hierarchical Beta regression model, general managers’ draft trade behavior appears rational rather than systematically flawed. More broadly, our findings highlight the critical role of carefully specifying a utility function when evaluating the quality of decisions.","PeriodicalId":50801,"journal":{"name":"American Statistician","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144066829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

High Dimensional Space Oddity 高维空间奇度

IF 1.8 4区数学

American Statistician Pub Date : 2025-05-15 DOI: 10.1080/00031305.2025.2505507

Haim Bar, Vladimir Pozdnyakov

引用次数: 0

Bayesian Inference and the Principle of Maximum Entropy 贝叶斯推理与最大熵原理

IF 1.8 4区数学

American Statistician Pub Date : 2025-05-06 DOI: 10.1080/00031305.2025.2501799

Duncan K. Foley, Ellis Scharfenaker

{"title":"Bayesian Inference and the Principle of Maximum Entropy","authors":"Duncan K. Foley, Ellis Scharfenaker","doi":"10.1080/00031305.2025.2501799","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00031305.2025.2501799","url":null,"abstract":"Bayes’ theorem incorporates distinct types of information through the likelihood and prior. Direct observations of state variables enter the likelihood and modify posterior probabilities through consistent updating. Information in terms of expected values of state variables modify posterior probabilities by constraining prior probabilities to be consistent with the information. Constraints on the prior can be exact, limiting hypothetical frequency distributions to only those that satisfy the constraints, or be approximate, allowing residual deviations from the exact constraint to some degree of tolerance. When the model parameters and constraint tolerances are known, posterior probabilities follow directly from Bayes’ theorem. When parameters and tolerances are unknown a prior for them must be specified. When the system is close to statistical equilibrium the computation of posterior probabilities is simplified due to the concentration of the prior on the maximum entropy hypothesis. The relationship between maximum entropy reasoning and Bayes’ theorem from this point of view is that maximum entropy reasoning is a special case of Bayesian inference with a constrained entropy-favoring prior.","PeriodicalId":50801,"journal":{"name":"American Statistician","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.8,"publicationDate":"2025-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143933216","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0