Environmental Research Letters最新文献

{"title":"Implications of emissions trading scheme for India’s net-zero strategy: A modelling-based assessment","authors":"Aman Malik, Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Medhavi Sandhani, P. Das, Chetna Arora, Nishtha Singh, Ryna Cui, Gokul Iyer, Alicia Zhao","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad64ec","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad64ec","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 To help meet its near-term NDC goals and long-term net-zero 2070 target, the Government of India has planned to establish a Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS), i.e., a domestic emission trading scheme (ETS). An ETS is an inherently cost-effective policy instrument for emission reduction, providing the greatest flexibility to reduce emissions from within and across sectors. An effective ETS requires design features that consider country-specific challenges and reflect its role within the larger policy package to achieve long-term emission reduction. Within the Indian context and in this study we therefore investigate - i) What might be the role of the ETS in achieving India’s long-term mitigation targets? ii) How might the various sectors interact under an emissions cap? iii) How might the ETS interact with existing energy and climate policies? We do this analysis by running four main scenarios using the integrated assessment model GCAM (v6.0), adapted to India-specific assumptions and expectations. These scenarios are - i) NZ (net-zero), ii) NZ + ETS, iii) NZ + CC (command and control), and iv) NZ + RPO (renewables purchase obligations) + ETS. The NZ scenario assumes India’s near-term and long-term climate commitments of net zero by 2070. Scenarios with ETS (ii and iv) apply an emissions cap on four sectors - electricity, iron and steel, cement, and fertilizer. The scenario with CC applies a homogenous emission cap on each of the chosen sectors but doesn’t allow cross-sectoral trading. The last scenario includes renewables purchase obligations (RPOs along with an ETS. We show that under a specific ETS emissions cap: i) the electricity sector emerges as the largest source of cost-effective greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction options; ii) ETS with trading across sectors is 30-50% more cost-effective than ETS with trading only within sectors, iii) RPOs can be complementary to an ETS although the impact of RPOs on GHG reductions in the electricity sector would need to be considered when setting the level of the ETS cap (or emissions intensity targets) or the RPO targets to avoid low carbon prices, and iv) the direction and volume of financial transfers across sectors depends on allocation targets set by the government. Based on these results we provide design recommendations for India’s ETS.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141826161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Improving estimations of GHG emissions and removals from land use change and forests in Brazil","authors":"Bárbara Zimbres, J. Shimbo, F. Lenti, Amintas Brandão Jr., Edriano Souza, Tasso Azevedo, A. Alencar","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad64ea","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad64ea","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Brazil ranks fifth in greenhouse gas emissions globally due to land use change. As a signatory to the Paris Agreement, Brazil must periodically report its GHG emissions as well as present mitigation targets set in the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). The SEEG Brazil Initiative (Greenhouse Gas Emission and Removal Estimating System) generates independent estimates of GHG emissions and removals since 2013, and in 2020, the estimation method for the land use change sector has been improved. This study aimed to (1) present these methodological advancements, including the spatial allocation of annual emissions and removals due to land use change (LUC) in Brazil at a 30-m spatial scale, and (2) explore the emission and removal patterns observed in Brazil from 1990 to 2019. The method presented here is built upon – but improves – the approach used by Brazil’s official National Inventories to estimate GHG emissions and removals. The improvements presented here include exploring emissions to the municipality level and using an annual updated time series of land use and land cover maps. Estimated greenhouse gas emissions from the LUC sector ranged from 687 Mt of CO2e in 2011 to a peak of 2,150 Mt of CO2e in 2003. In 2010, removals nearly offset gross emissions in the sector, with a net emission of 116 Mt of CO2e. The trend observed in recent years was an increase in emissions, decreasing Brazil’s likelihood of meeting its NDC targets. Emission profiles vary across the country, but in every biome, the conversion of primary native vegetation is the predominant transition type. If Brazil managed to curb deforestation, the total GHG emissions from the land use change sector would decrease by 96%, mitigating around 44% of total emissions.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141824502","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Assessing GEDI data fusions to map woodpecker distributions and biodiversity hotspots","authors":"Lisa H. Elliott, J. Vogeler, Joseph D Holbrook, Brent R Barry, Kerri T Vierling","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad64eb","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad64eb","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 In forested systems, woodpecker species richness has been linked with songbird diversity, and identifying woodpecker biodiversity hotspots may contribute important information for conservation planning. The availability of global forest structure data via the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) instrument provides a new tool for examining broad extent relationships amongst environmental variables, forest structure, and woodpecker diversity hotspots. Within the Marine West Coast Forest ecoregion, USA, we used eBird data for 7 woodpecker species to model encounter rates based on bioclimatic variables, process data (e.g. duration and timing of survey), MODIS forest land cover data, and GEDI-fusion metrics. The GEDI-fusion metrics included foliage height diversity (fhd), rh98 (a representation of canopy height), and canopy cover, which were created by combining GEDI data with Landsat, Sentinel-1, topographic, and climatic information within a random forest modeling framework. AUCs for the species-specific models ranged from 0.77 - 0.98, where bioclimatic and process predictors were amongst the most important variables for all species. GEDI-fusion forest structure metrics were highly ranked for all species, with fhd included as a highly ranked predictor for all species. The structural metrics included as top predictors for each species were reflective of known species-specific habitat associations. Hotspots in this ecoregion tended to be inland and occurred most often on privately-owned lands. Identification of hotspots is the first step towards management plans focused on biodiversity, and understanding ownership patterns is important for future conservation efforts. The near-global extent of GEDI data, along with recent studies that recommend woodpeckers as indicators of biodiversity across multiple forest types at local and global scales, suggest that synthesis of GEDI-derived data applied to woodpecker detection information might be a powerful approach to identifying biodiversity hotspots.  ","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141825971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Increasing concurrent exposure of global breadbaskets to reproductive heat extremes","authors":"Hongying Zhang, Xiaoge Yu, Fengxue Qiao, Chao Li","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad6467","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6467","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 In recent years, circumglobal heatwaves are becoming increasingly frequent, motivating concerns about the concurrent exposure of global breadbaskets to heat extremes during crop reproductive periods. Here we project the likelihood of concurrent exposure of global breadbaskets of staple crops to widespread reproductive heat extremes. We find that circumglobal reproductive extreme heat exposure would be an agriculturally relevant climate feature in the coming decades. By 2028‒2057 (with approximately 2 oC warming above preindustrial levels), the probability of major breadbaskets of the world concurrently enduring at least 5 days of reproductive extreme heat over more than half of their croplands in a typical year is projected to rise from virtually unlikely to 0.43 for maize, 0.27 for wheat, 0.33 for rice and soybean. While as of 2050‒2079 (with approximately 3 oC warming above preindustrial levels), these probabilities would grow rapidly to 0.91, 0.83, 0.87, and 0.80, respectively. Should such dramatic increases in circumglobal reproductive extreme heat exposure occur, they could pose substantial stress on food production and agricultural adaptation, particularly when coinciding with agricultural droughts.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141828228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Land-use change as a major driver for mid-20th-century flood intensity reduction in the Southeastern US","authors":"Zhixiong Shen, Nicholas Conway, Shaowu Bao, Samuel E Munoz, Andreas Lang","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad6464","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6464","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Land-use changes affect hydrologic processes, but their impact on flooding remains obscure amid increasingly heavy precipitation. Instrumental records are short relative to land-use change history and inadequate for flood attribution studies. Here we integrate a high-resolution paleodischarge record spanning the past ~200 years from the largest basin in the Southeastern United States with instrumental data and hydrological modeling. We find that the 100-yr flood magnitude for large regional rivers exhibits 50–75% reductions in the mid-20th century. We attribute at least 50% of the reductions to a regional shift from widespread agricultural land to conservation and reforestation and the rest to streamflow regulations. A sensitivity test of the largest post-1950s flood in our study area using the WRF-Hydro model shows that the peak early-1900s agriculture activity in the region could have doubled the flood’s magnitude. Our findings suggest that land-use change can profoundly impact flood severity at catchment to regional scales. Therefore, reforestation and soil conservation contribute to alleviating flood hazard in some regions, while aggressive agriculture expansion in other areas will amplify the hazard.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141829642","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Beyond the single-basket mindset: A multi-gas approach to better constrain overshoot in near term warming","authors":"Julie S Miller, Gabrielle Dreyfus, John S Daniel, Stephen Willis, Yangyang Xu","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad6461","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6461","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The remaining carbon budget framework tracks progress towards the Paris Agreement’s goal to limit longer-term warming to well below 2 ºC, but no analogous framework exists for constraining mid-century warming. Established single-basket methods of combining gases into CO2-equivalents using Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) lead to ambiguity over what combination of short- and long-lived emissions reductions are needed because they obscure the distinct warming impacts of each. We investigate to what extent a multi-basket approach that separates short-lived and long-lived pollutants can better estimate the likelihood for emission pathways to meet a near-term warming goal. We develop logistic regression models to categorize IPCC emission pathways (AR6) based on whether they exceed a mid-century temperature threshold. We focus on two baskets, using CO2 for long-lived and methane (CH4) for short-lived gases. For comparison, we consider several single-basket approaches (e.g., GWP100, GWP20, GWP*). We further apply our framework to a synthetic dataset covering a broader emissions space. Across both datasets, the two-basket outperforms all single-baskets. Using an illustrative near-term goal (1.7ºC), the two-basket approach reduces the magnitude of overshoot by a factor of 7 compared with the traditional single-basket. The two-basket’s advantage is smaller with the AR6 pathways, which we attribute to the high correlation between CO2 and CH4 emissions and confounding effects from other pollutants. Our results indicate that the two-basket approach better constrains overshoot magnitude, particularly if future emissions deviate from the AR6 assumption of correlated CO2 and CH4 reductions. Our approach allows the determination of a metric value and reduction target in the context of a chosen set of scenarios and temperature threshold; the outcome is a near-term methane-specific emissions budget that can be adopted by decisionmakers in a way that is analogous and complementary to the carbon budget. Future work could consider a third basket for very short-lived pollutants.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141830244","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Can blue-green infrastructure counteract the effects of climate change on combined sewer overflows? study of a swiss catchment","authors":"Giovan Battista Cavadini, Mayra Rodríguez, Trang Nguyen, Lauren M. Cook","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad6462","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6462","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Combined sewer overflows (CSOs), the discharge of untreated sewage mixed with stormwater into surface waters, are expected to increase under climate change as a result of more extreme rainfall. Blue-green infrastructure (BGI), such as bioretention cells and porous pavements, can help to reduce the amount of stormwater entering combined sewer systems, thus reducing CSO discharge. However, our understanding of the potential for BGI to mitigate CSOs in a future climate is still lacking, as performance is typically evaluated for individual BGI elements with fixed implementation areas under historical climate conditions or limited future scenarios. In response, this study investigates the performance of 30 combinations of BGI elements and implementation rates to prevent increases in CSOs under a range of future climate scenarios in an urban catchment near Zurich, Switzerland. Median total annual rainfall, projected to increase by as much as 46%, could double the median annual CSO volume and increase median annual CSO frequency by up to 52%. Four BGI combinations that include bioretention cells show the most promise to prevent increases in CSO volume and frequency in a future climate; and given the diverse responses of BGI elements to distinct rainfall patterns, their combinations can enhance CSO discharge reduction across varying climate patterns. BGI is also likely to become more cost-effective under future climatic conditions as projected increases in total rainfall led to larger CSO volume reductions obtained through BGI. However, there is a trade-off between robustness to climate change and cost-effectiveness, since CSO volume reduction capacity scales with BGI implementation rate but cost-effectiveness declines. Our study illustrates the effectiveness of various BGI combinations to prevent increases in CSOs in a future climate, calling for a range of BGI elements and implementation areas to be considered for urban drainage adaptation.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141828628","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Green finance and grey air: evaluating the impact of green finance pilot zones on company-level pollution in China","authors":"Chen Luo, Huaiqian Lyu, Tianzuo Wen, Will W. Qiang, Harry F. Lee","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad6466","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6466","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 To achieve sustainable and high-quality economic growth, China introduced the Pilot Zones for Green Finance Reform and Innovations in 2017. While this policy aims to promote the green transition of businesses and has drawn significant attention, its micro-operational mechanism and firm-level impact remain largely unexplored. This study addresses this research gap by employing a quasi-experimental approach to examine the policy’s effects on companies. The empirical results of our research highlight an unexpected 5.53% surge in the PM2.5 concentration levels in the vicinity of these firms. Given these findings, we call on policymakers to reflect on the environmental consequences following the roll-out of the Green Finance Reform. Simultaneously, we stress the significance of corporate responsibility in disclosing pertinent indicators and environmental data.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141829647","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Temporal and spatial changes in the environmental lapse rate distribution over the Arctic","authors":"zelu zhang, J. Bamber, Ádám Ignéczi","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad6465","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6465","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The Environmental Lapse Rate (ELR) depicts how the temperature near the surface varies with altitude and can be used for temperature downscaling coarse resolution data and for understanding boundary layer processes. We calculated the ELR using ERA5 reanalysis data, examined its temporal and larger-scale spatial variability, and found a prevalent seasonal ELR cycle over the Arctic. There are extensive positive ELR values resulting from pervasive inversions over most of the Arctic in winter; hence, we also explored the possible factors that lead to inversions in polar regions. Our results can serve as a reference for future research on the inversions in different morphological regions at different pressure levels. By improving the characterization of the ELR, we obtain a more explicit representation of the vertical temperature variation across the Arctic region and examine potential trends in ELR over time. Our results challenge the commonly assumed fixed ELR values that are typically used in the Arctic region in, for example, correcting ice-core temperature reconstructions or estimating higher-resolution runoff from land ice.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141830192","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modelling remote barrier detection to achieve free-flowing river targets","authors":"Millicent V Parks, C. Garcia de Leaniz, Peter E. Jones, Josh Jones","doi":"10.1088/1748-9326/ad6460","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad6460","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Fragmentation caused by artificial barriers is one of the main stressors of rivers worldwide. However, many barrier inventories only record large barriers, which underestimates barrier numbers, and hence fragmentation. Corrected barrier numbers can be obtained via river walkovers, but these are costly and time consuming. We assessed the performance of remote sensing as an alternative to river walkovers for barrier discovery by comparing the number and location of barriers detected in the field with those detected using Google Earth imagery. Only 56% of known barriers could be detected remotely, but machine learning models predicted the likelihood of remote detection with 62-65% accuracy. Barriers located downstream were twice as likely to be detected remotely than those in the headwaters, the probability of detection diminishing by 3-4% for every decrease in Strahler stream order and for every 10km increase in distance from the river mouth. Barriers located in forested reaches were 35% less likely to be detected than those in open reaches. Observer skills also affected the ability to locate barriers remotely and detection rate varied by 11% between experienced and less experienced observers, suggesting that training might improve barrier detection. Our findings have implications for estimates of river fragmentation because they show that the most under-represented structures in barrier inventories, i.e. small barriers located in forested headwaters, are unlikely to be detected remotely. Although remote sensing cannot fully replace ‘boots on the ground’ field surveys for filling barrier data gaps, it can reduce the field work necessary to improve barrier inventories and help inform optimal strategies for barrier removal under data-poor scenarios.","PeriodicalId":507917,"journal":{"name":"Environmental Research Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141831372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}