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Comparative Assessment of Two Global Sensitivity Approaches Considering Model and Parameter Uncertainty 考虑模型和参数不确定性的两种全球灵敏度方法的比较评估

Water Resources Research Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.1029/2023wr036096

Heng Dai, Yujiao Liu, A. Guadagnini, Songhu Yuan, Jing Yang, Ming Ye

{"title":"Comparative Assessment of Two Global Sensitivity Approaches Considering Model and Parameter Uncertainty","authors":"Heng Dai, Yujiao Liu, A. Guadagnini, Songhu Yuan, Jing Yang, Ming Ye","doi":"10.1029/2023wr036096","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036096","url":null,"abstract":"Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) is key to assisting appraisal of the behavior of hydrological systems through model diagnosis considering multiple sources of uncertainty. Uncertainty sources typically comprise incomplete knowledge in (a) conceptual and mathematical formulation of models and (b) parameters embedded in the models. In this context, there is the need for detailed investigations aimed at a robust quantification of the importance of model and parameter uncertainties in a rigorous multi‐model context. This study aims at evaluating and comparing two modern multi‐model GSA methodologies. These are the first GSA approaches embedding both model and parameter uncertainty sources and encompass the variance‐based framework based on Sobol indices (as derived by Dai & Ye, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.06.034) and the moment‐based approach upon which the formulation of the multi‐model AMA indices (as derived by Dell'Oca et al., 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019wr025754) is based. We provide an assessment of various aspects of sensitivity upon considering a joint analysis of these two approaches in a multi‐model context. Our work relies on well‐established scenarios that comprise (a) a synthetic setting related to reactive transport across a groundwater system and (b) an experimentally‐based study considering heavy metal sorption onto a soil. Our study documents that the joint use of these GSA approaches can provide different while complementary information to assess mutual consistency of approaches and to enrich the information content provided by GSA under model and parameter uncertainty. While being related to groundwater settings, our results can be considered as reference for future GSA studies coping with model and parameter uncertainty.","PeriodicalId":507642,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139878340","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Comparative Assessment of Two Global Sensitivity Approaches Considering Model and Parameter Uncertainty 考虑模型和参数不确定性的两种全球灵敏度方法的比较评估

Water Resources Research Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.1029/2023wr036096

Heng Dai, Yujiao Liu, A. Guadagnini, Songhu Yuan, Jing Yang, Ming Ye

{"title":"Comparative Assessment of Two Global Sensitivity Approaches Considering Model and Parameter Uncertainty","authors":"Heng Dai, Yujiao Liu, A. Guadagnini, Songhu Yuan, Jing Yang, Ming Ye","doi":"10.1029/2023wr036096","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036096","url":null,"abstract":"Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) is key to assisting appraisal of the behavior of hydrological systems through model diagnosis considering multiple sources of uncertainty. Uncertainty sources typically comprise incomplete knowledge in (a) conceptual and mathematical formulation of models and (b) parameters embedded in the models. In this context, there is the need for detailed investigations aimed at a robust quantification of the importance of model and parameter uncertainties in a rigorous multi‐model context. This study aims at evaluating and comparing two modern multi‐model GSA methodologies. These are the first GSA approaches embedding both model and parameter uncertainty sources and encompass the variance‐based framework based on Sobol indices (as derived by Dai & Ye, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.06.034) and the moment‐based approach upon which the formulation of the multi‐model AMA indices (as derived by Dell'Oca et al., 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019wr025754) is based. We provide an assessment of various aspects of sensitivity upon considering a joint analysis of these two approaches in a multi‐model context. Our work relies on well‐established scenarios that comprise (a) a synthetic setting related to reactive transport across a groundwater system and (b) an experimentally‐based study considering heavy metal sorption onto a soil. Our study documents that the joint use of these GSA approaches can provide different while complementary information to assess mutual consistency of approaches and to enrich the information content provided by GSA under model and parameter uncertainty. While being related to groundwater settings, our results can be considered as reference for future GSA studies coping with model and parameter uncertainty.","PeriodicalId":507642,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139818381","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Methylmercury Export From a Headwater Peatland Catchment Decreased With Cleaner Emissions Despite Opposing Effect of Climate Warming 尽管气候变暖会产生相反的影响，但随着清洁排放的增加，上游泥炭地集水区的甲基汞输出量减少了

Water Resources Research Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.1029/2023wr036513

C. McCarter, S. Sebestyen, J. Jeremiason, E. Nater, R. Kolka

{"title":"Methylmercury Export From a Headwater Peatland Catchment Decreased With Cleaner Emissions Despite Opposing Effect of Climate Warming","authors":"C. McCarter, S. Sebestyen, J. Jeremiason, E. Nater, R. Kolka","doi":"10.1029/2023wr036513","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023wr036513","url":null,"abstract":"Peatlands are sources of bioaccumulating neurotoxin methylmercury (MeHg) that is linked to adverse health outcomes. Yet, the compounding impacts of climate change and reductions in atmospheric pollutants on mercury (Hg) export from peatlands are highly uncertain. We investigated the response in annual flow‐weighted concentrations (FWC) and yields of total‐Hg (THg) and MeHg to cleaner air and climate change using an unprecedented hydroclimatic (55‐year; streamflow, air temperature, precipitation, and peatland water tables), depositional chemistry (21‐year; Hg and major ions), and streamwater chemistry (∼17‐year; THg, MeHg, major ions, total organic carbon, and pH) data sets from a reference peatland catchment in Minnesota, USA. Over the hydroclimatic record, annual mean air temperature increased by ∼1.8°C, while baseflow and the efficiency that precipitation was converted to runoff (runoff ratio) decreased. Concurrently, precipitation‐based deposition of sulfate and Hg declined, where wet Hg deposition declined by ∼3–4 μg Hg m−2. Despite declines in wet Hg deposition over the study period, the catchment accumulated on average 0.04 ± 0.01 g Hg ha−1 yr−1 based on wet Hg deposition minus THg yield alone. Annual MeHg FWC was positively correlated with mean annual air temperatures (p = 0.03, r = 0.51), runoff ratio (p < 0.0001, r = 0.76), and wet Hg deposition concentration (p < 0.0001, r = 0.79). Decreasing wet Hg deposition and annual runoff ratios counterbalanced increased peatland MeHg production due to higher air temperatures, leading to an overall decline in streamwater MeHg FWC. Streamwater MeHg export may continue to decrease only as long as declines in runoff ratio and wet Hg deposition persistently outpace effects of increased air temperature.","PeriodicalId":507642,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140466543","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Tracking Centimeter‐Scale Water Level Changes in Swedish Lakes Using D‐InSAR 利用 D-InSAR 跟踪瑞典湖泊厘米级水位变化

Water Resources Research Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.1029/2022wr034290

S. Aminjafari, I. Brown, F. V. Mayamey, F. Jaramillo

{"title":"Tracking Centimeter‐Scale Water Level Changes in Swedish Lakes Using D‐InSAR","authors":"S. Aminjafari, I. Brown, F. V. Mayamey, F. Jaramillo","doi":"10.1029/2022wr034290","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2022wr034290","url":null,"abstract":"Lakes are valuable water resources that support aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems and supply fresh water for the agricultural, industrial, and urban sectors worldwide. Although water levels should be tracked to monitor these services, conventional gauging is unfeasible in most lakes. This study applies Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (D‐InSAR) to estimate small water level changes, less than 2 cm, in Swedish lakes over 6‐day intervals. We validated the method across the shores of 30 Swedish lakes with gauged observations in 2019. We used Sentinel‐1A/B images with a 6‐day temporal separation to construct consecutive interferograms and accumulated the phase changes in pixels of high coherence to build a time series of water levels. We find that the accumulated phase change obtained by D‐InSAR replicates the magnitude of water levels in seven lakes in Southern Sweden, where water levels change slowly, less than 2 cm per 6‐day period, as validated by in‐situ gauges. In addition, this study demonstrates the application of D‐InSAR to estimate the long‐term direction of water level change (i.e., increase or decrease) in all 30 lakes. This work reveals the utility of high temporal resolution water level observations in support of other satellite water level instruments such as conventional altimeters and the recently launched Surface Water and Ocean Topography Mission.","PeriodicalId":507642,"journal":{"name":"Water Resources Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140470278","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0