Russian Journal of Economics and Law最新文献

{"title":"On predicting the probability of default of credit organizations in the Russian Federation","authors":"D. F. Zakirova","doi":"10.21202/2782-2923.2024.1.70-87","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21202/2782-2923.2024.1.70-87","url":null,"abstract":"Objective: to form a model for predicting the default of credit organizations under the modern conditions of the banking sector functioning.Methods: unidimensional analysis of variance, regression analysis of binary choice models.Results: in the modern economy, the banking system stability largely affects not only the financial sector, but also the economic and investment climate in the country. Understanding of the banks’ influence on the economy necessitates the formation of appropriate effective forecasting systems that allow identifying problem banks before revoking their licenses is necessary. The existing methodology of the Bank of Russia is characterized by subjectivity and inaccuracy of assessment. The analysis of studies on predicting bank defaults showed various approaches to the methodology of assessing the probability of credit institutions’ bankruptcy, though they have a number of shortcomings. Based on the selection of key factors affecting the bank’s financial stability, the logistic regression model for predicting bankruptcy of banks was formed. The methodology proposed in this article includes five predictors, selected on the basis of the improved methodology for selecting logit regression variables, and complements the existing methodologies.Scientific novelty: a methodology for assessing the probability of commercial banks’ bankruptcy in the Russian Federation was developed, which includes five key predictors for assessing the bank’s financial stability: return on assets, unit weight of liquid assets in the balance sheet currency, unit weight of the loan portfolio in the balance sheet currency, share of loans to the real sector in the balance sheet currency, and share of long-term placements in the loan portfolio. The logistic regression model of binary choice proposed in the paper allows distinguishing financially stable credit organizations from problem banks with a forecasting horizon of five months and a classification accuracy of 88,33 %.Practical significance: the relatively high classification accuracy of the model allows its use by the Bank of Russia in controlling the credit organizations functioning, as well as directly by the credit organization’s management, in order to assess the organization’s financial stability and to predict the default probability, as well as to form the bank’s development strategy.","PeriodicalId":507562,"journal":{"name":"Russian Journal of Economics and Law","volume":"22 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140234558","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Anti-sanction and sanction economic policy of Russia in 2022–2025. Part 2: Aftermaths of sanctions war, management of changes, clarification of research concepts","authors":"D. V. Manushin","doi":"10.21202/2782-2923.2024.1.36-69","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21202/2782-2923.2024.1.36-69","url":null,"abstract":"Objectives: to study and forecast the state of the Russian economy after the intensification of the sanctions war and formalization of the Russian anti-sanctions and sanctions economic policy.Methods: the research uses such techniques of abstract-logical method as analysis, synthesis, deduction, induction, analogy, formalization, and forecasting.Results: The main macroeconomic indicators of Russia were analyzed (2006–2023) and forecasted (2024–2025). The impact of sanctions on the negative trends in the development of industries mainly contributing to the Russia’s GDP was assessed. As a result, the author identified the industries that have become drivers of the country’s economic development, as well as those subjected to the most significant pressure as a result of the sanctions. the comparative analysis of indicators allowed us to conclude that the Russian economy as a whole in the medium term coped with the sanctions load better than the world economy with the consequences of the sanction war. Conclusions were made on the results of anti-Russian sanctions and Russia’s response measures. Russia’s sanctions, anti-sanctions and counter-sanctions economic policy was formalized.Scientific novelty: the concepts of “sanctions economic policy”, “anti-sanctions economic policy”, “counter-sanctions economic policy”, “sanctions policy”, “anti-sanctions policy”, “counter-sanctions policy” were clarified. The main goals of sanctions and anti-sanctions economic policy of Russia were revealed. The principles of Russia’s sanctions and anti-sanctions policy were supplemented. It was shown that the Russian sanctions economic policy is open, rational, protective and protectionist. It was found that Russia’s anti-sanctions economic policy is highly politicized, medium-term and protectionist. The main directions of development of anti-sanctions and sanctions economic policy of Russia were outlined.Practical significance: the obtained results will allow understanding the essence, causes and processes in the management of the Russia’s sanctions and anti-sanctions activity, predicting its results more accurately, and determining measures to correct the anti-sanctions and sanctions policy of the Russian Federation.","PeriodicalId":507562,"journal":{"name":"Russian Journal of Economics and Law","volume":"320 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140233063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"From theory to empirics and back: A misunderstanding around the Veblenian dichotomy","authors":"A. Vernikov, A. Kurysheva","doi":"10.21202/2782-2923.2024.1.5-23","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21202/2782-2923.2024.1.5-23","url":null,"abstract":"Objective: to trace the emergence and consolidation of a wrong meaning when moving from an inaccurately interpreted theoretical concept to empirical evidence. The authors suggest the case of Thorstein Veblen’s evolutionary theory and identify how researchers interpret and apply its selected elements.Methods: discourse analysis. The authors rely on Veblen’s original writings, research papers by Russian authors who refer to the so-called Veblenian dichotomy, and own research findings. The latter show the application of Veblen’s concept to study (1) the features of Russian 19th century economic culture, and (2) contemporary techniques of manipulating personal financial decision-making.Results: the authors found that Veblen had distinguished between contrasting analytical categories when describing different human dispositions, or instinctive proclivities, underlying habitual ways of thinking and doing and economic conduct. Some dispositions lead to productive behavior, while others lead to unproductive one. This concept is essential for institutional analysis. Our research discovers its inaccurate interpretations in the research literature. Starting from a distorted understanding of the theoretical concept, empirical studies contribute to the entrenchment and spread of a misconception, thus feeding a particular ideological agenda. The authors separated Veblen’s original concepts, including ethical ones, from subsequent interpretations and elaborations, to monitor the changing treatment of traditional values in research literature as productive or ceremonial ones. Research findings indicate that the articles by Russian institutionalists contain a systematic bias with regard to the treatment of traditional norms and values as merely ceremonial ones, implying backwardness and archaic patterns, which impede technological progress and “modernization”.Scientific novelty: the application of Veblenian analytical tools in an applied institutional study is reconsidered. Authors’ own analytical technique is suggested to assess the norms underlying economic behavior in terms of their productivity. This technique is applied to the Russian empirical material, both historical and contemporary. To our knowledge, the proposed research technique has not been used in the previous literature.Practical significance: the research findings and their interpretation indicate that Veblen’s ethics and his analytical approach remain relevant. This article contributes to the “restoration” of core values and economic culture of the Russian people. Veblen’s evolutionary theory is suggested as an alternative to the widespread trite methods of cross-country and cross-cultural socio-economic comparisons which presume the supremacy of “Western” values.","PeriodicalId":507562,"journal":{"name":"Russian Journal of Economics and Law","volume":"312 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140232989","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}