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European Review of Agricultural Economics最新文献

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Inventory surprises and futures calendar spreads in grain markets 粮食市场的库存意外和期货日历价差
IF 3.4 2区 经济学
European Review of Agricultural Economics Pub Date : 2026-10-12 DOI: 10.1093/erae/jbag021
Yao Yang,Andrew McKenzie,Andrew Anderson
{"title":"Inventory surprises and futures calendar spreads in grain markets","authors":"Yao Yang,Andrew McKenzie,Andrew Anderson","doi":"10.1093/erae/jbag021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbag021","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article examines whether corn and soybean calendar spreads respond to unexpected changes in USDA ending stocks forecasts reported in WASDE. Consistent with the theory of storage, we find that positive inventory surprises move adjusted calendar spreads toward full financial carry (i.e., toward zero), whereas negative surprises make them more negative. Our results demonstrate that inventory news matters more when convenience yield is relatively high. In addition, we find that larger WASDE inventory surprises lead to greater volatility in calendar spreads. We also show that surprises generally move futures prices across the forward curve in the same direction, but nearby contracts respond more strongly than deferred contracts. Overall, our results confirm the value of WASDE reports and futures markets in efficiently allocating grain over time.","PeriodicalId":50476,"journal":{"name":"European Review of Agricultural Economics","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149209762","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Quoting behavior and price discovery in agricultural derivatives markets 农产品衍生品市场的报价行为与价格发现
IF 3.4 2区 经济学
European Review of Agricultural Economics Pub Date : 2026-10-09 DOI: 10.1093/erae/jbag020
Richie R Ma,Teresa Serra
{"title":"Quoting behavior and price discovery in agricultural derivatives markets","authors":"Richie R Ma,Teresa Serra","doi":"10.1093/erae/jbag020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbag020","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Using Chicago Mercantile Exchange intraday data in 2024, this paper examines price discovery between agricultural futures and options. Options respond faster to new information, whereas futures contribute more to the efficient price shared by both markets. We provide a market microstructure explanation for this pattern. We find a 1 per cent increase in options’ relative aggressive quoting, defined as quotes that move the best bid or offer price, is associated with a 0.25 per cent increase in their relative speed of price adjustment and a 0.15 per cent decline in their relative contribution to the efficient price. By contrast, options’ relative trading volume is negatively associated with their speed advantage and is unrelated to their contribution to the efficient price. These findings highlight the distinct roles of quoting and trading in cross-market price discovery.","PeriodicalId":50476,"journal":{"name":"European Review of Agricultural Economics","volume":"42 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149150937","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Breeding delays determine the wavelength of the pork cycle 繁殖延迟决定了猪肉周期的波长
IF 3.4 2区 经济学
European Review of Agricultural Economics Pub Date : 2026-09-21 DOI: 10.1093/erae/jbag019
Robert Peels,Maximiliano Udenio,Jan C Fransoo,Robert Hoste
{"title":"Breeding delays determine the wavelength of the pork cycle","authors":"Robert Peels,Maximiliano Udenio,Jan C Fransoo,Robert Hoste","doi":"10.1093/erae/jbag019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbag019","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The pork cycle exhibits persistent oscillations in prices and production with a wavelength of three to six years. We develop a system dynamics model in which cyclical behaviour arises endogenously from biological delays and a simple adjustment rule, without the explicit modelling of price or forward-looking optimization from decision-makers. The model reproduces the cyclical component of Dutch pork prices, matching its wavelength and turning points, and explains the gradual shortening of the cycle through technological changes that reduced production lead times. Sensitivity analysis further separates the parameters that govern the cycle’s wavelength from those that govern its amplitude, and identifies policy levers acting on each. Our findings do not imply that prices are irrelevant; rather, they highlight that a significant part of the pork cycle is structural, with prices primarily reflecting underlying production delays. This perspective complements rational-expectations models and clarifies why similar ‘pork cycle’ patterns appear in other industries with long lead times.","PeriodicalId":50476,"journal":{"name":"European Review of Agricultural Economics","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149021652","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Trade diversification and food price volatility 贸易多样化和粮食价格波动
IF 3.4 2区 经济学
European Review of Agricultural Economics Pub Date : 2026-09-10 DOI: 10.1093/erae/jbag018
Bernhard Dalheimer
{"title":"Trade diversification and food price volatility","authors":"Bernhard Dalheimer","doi":"10.1093/erae/jbag018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbag018","url":null,"abstract":"Recent shortages and price volatility have exposed vulnerabilities in international agri-food value chains. This paper develops a new framework for measuring trade diversification based on Hill numbers, which capture both the extensive and intensive margin of trade connections. Using HS6-level bilateral data for 188 countries from 2000 to 2022, I first document global patterns of diversification and concentration across agri-food sectors. The descriptive evidence shows that most countries trade with many partners in principle, yet effectively rely on only a few, especially for grains and oilseeds. I then estimate the effect of import and export diversification on within-year food price volatility using a shift–share instrumental-variable design that exploits exogenous foreign sector-level shocks weighted by lagged bilateral trade exposure. The empirical results show that more balanced and diversified import portfolios are strongly associated with lower food price volatility, whereas export diversification plays a more limited role. Policies encouraging diversification can reduce food price volatility but involve trade-offs between efficiency from international specialization and resilience of the input–output network.","PeriodicalId":50476,"journal":{"name":"European Review of Agricultural Economics","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148922852","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Commodity price risk in phosphorus recycling investments 磷回收投资中的商品价格风险
IF 3.4 2区 经济学
European Review of Agricultural Economics Pub Date : 2026-08-22 DOI: 10.1093/erae/jbag017
Jan-Philip R Uhlemann,Alfons Oude Lansink,James J Leahy,Jean-Paul Chavas,Tobias Dalhaus
{"title":"Commodity price risk in phosphorus recycling investments","authors":"Jan-Philip R Uhlemann,Alfons Oude Lansink,James J Leahy,Jean-Paul Chavas,Tobias Dalhaus","doi":"10.1093/erae/jbag017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbag017","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract There are optimistic targets for phosphorus recycling from waste streams to solve environmental and supply issues simultaneously. The recycling process requires high energy inputs, thus the joint distribution of (input) energy and (output) fertilizer commodity prices is a crucial determinant of the profitability of investing. We propose a methodology to model the investment risk and price dependencies using quantile vector autoregression and copulas. Moreover, we show that standard approaches overestimate the variance of investment returns. Finally, we find that phosphorus recycling investments are only profitable with substantial subsidies or savings on disposal expenditures.","PeriodicalId":50476,"journal":{"name":"European Review of Agricultural Economics","volume":"35 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148894708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Smartphones, information, and bargaining power: Evidence from pastoral areas in China 智能手机、信息和议价能力：来自中国牧区的证据
IF 3.4 2区 经济学
European Review of Agricultural Economics Pub Date : 2026-08-21 DOI: 10.1093/erae/jbag016
Min Liu,Kaixing Huang,Jianyu Yu,Shukun Wang,Weidong Wang,Xiaohua Yu,David Wuepper
{"title":"Smartphones, information, and bargaining power: Evidence from pastoral areas in China","authors":"Min Liu,Kaixing Huang,Jianyu Yu,Shukun Wang,Weidong Wang,Xiaohua Yu,David Wuepper","doi":"10.1093/erae/jbag016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbag016","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study examines the impact of smartphone adoption on livestock trading in pastoral China. We develop a bargaining and search model with two mechanisms: information discovery, which reduces herders’ search costs, and information posting, which expands market access. Using household survey data, we find that smartphone adoption increases selling prices. Mechanism analysis shows that traditional phone functions improve information access, while smartphone-specific features, especially information posting, enhance bargaining power by expanding selling channels and trader access. These findings demonstrate that digital technologies affect market outcomes not only through improved information access but also by reshaping bargaining structures and market participation.","PeriodicalId":50476,"journal":{"name":"European Review of Agricultural Economics","volume":"32 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148894709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Agricultural extension services for farm resilience in Russian–Ukrainian Conflict 促进俄乌冲突中农场恢复力的农业推广服务
IF 3.4 2区 经济学
European Review of Agricultural Economics Pub Date : 2026-08-10 DOI: 10.1093/erae/jbag014
Bekhzod Egamberdiev,Mukhayyo Djuraeva,Ihtiyor Bobojonov,Lena Kuhn,Thomas Glauben
{"title":"Agricultural extension services for farm resilience in Russian–Ukrainian Conflict","authors":"Bekhzod Egamberdiev,Mukhayyo Djuraeva,Ihtiyor Bobojonov,Lena Kuhn,Thomas Glauben","doi":"10.1093/erae/jbag014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbag014","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We analyse how agricultural extension services affect farm resilience using the Post-Russian Invasion Survey of Smallholder Farmers in Ukraine for 2022–3. Farm household resilience is measured using the Resilience Capacity Index (RCI), constructed from Adaptive Capacity (AC), Assets (AST), Social Safety Nets (SSN), and Sensitivity (S). To address the heterogeneity problem, Latent Profile Analysis (LPA) defines homogenous resilience profiles. The manuscript also examines a causal relationship by incorporating treatment effects into latent analysis. The results reveal that extension service receivers experience higher levels of AST and SSN. The extension service has a positive effect on RCI levels.","PeriodicalId":50476,"journal":{"name":"European Review of Agricultural Economics","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148895953","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Spatially coordinated conservation auctions under imperfect information about ecological spillovers 不完全信息下的空间协调保护拍卖
IF 3.4 2区 经济学
European Review of Agricultural Economics Pub Date : 2026-08-10 DOI: 10.1093/erae/jbag015
Zhaoyang Liu,Xiaojun Yang,Paul R Armsworth,Nick Hanley
{"title":"Spatially coordinated conservation auctions under imperfect information about ecological spillovers","authors":"Zhaoyang Liu,Xiaojun Yang,Paul R Armsworth,Nick Hanley","doi":"10.1093/erae/jbag015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbag015","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Increasing attention is being paid to the design of economic incentives for conservation on private land to encourage spatial coordination. We investigate the effects of using incorrect information on the ecological benefits of spatial coordination in the design of a conservation auction, using a framed field experiment with real farmers as participants. We find that auction performance can be substantially weakened if the parameters adopted are ‘wrong enough’ to change which farms are prioritized for enrolment in a conservation contract. Parameters that under-estimate the true coordination benefits are less damaging to policy performance than those which over-estimate these benefits.","PeriodicalId":50476,"journal":{"name":"European Review of Agricultural Economics","volume":"73 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148894711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Beyond determinism: Accounting for weather variability in the carbon pricing debate for EU agriculture 超越决定论：在欧盟农业碳定价辩论中考虑天气变化
IF 3.4 2区 经济学
European Review of Agricultural Economics Pub Date : 2026-07-01 DOI: 10.1093/erae/jbag007
Davit Stepanyan,Sebastian Neuenfeldt,Alisa Spiegel,Mareike Söder,Julio G Fournier Gabela,Florian Freund,Claudia Heidecke,Bernhard Osterburg,Alexander Gocht
{"title":"Beyond determinism: Accounting for weather variability in the carbon pricing debate for EU agriculture","authors":"Davit Stepanyan,Sebastian Neuenfeldt,Alisa Spiegel,Mareike Söder,Julio G Fournier Gabela,Florian Freund,Claudia Heidecke,Bernhard Osterburg,Alexander Gocht","doi":"10.1093/erae/jbag007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbag007","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Agriculture accounts for 11 per cent of EU greenhouse gas emissions, yet sectoral emissions have stagnated over the past two decades. This paper evaluates carbon pricing in EU agriculture by integrating stochastic yield variability into the CAPRI model. We assess how different carbon price levels affect emissions and outcome uncertainty. Results show that carbon pricing reduces emissions, and higher price levels are associated with lower uncertainty in policy outcomes. While expected results remain similar to deterministic simulations, stochastic modeling reveals greater regional and sectoral heterogeneity. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for production risk when designing agricultural climate policies.","PeriodicalId":50476,"journal":{"name":"European Review of Agricultural Economics","volume":"137 1","pages":"967-999"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148894543","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Alternative Agricultural Carbon Border Adjustment and Climate Club Designs : a Quantitative Assessment 替代农业碳边界调整与气候俱乐部设计：定量评估
IF 3.4 2区 经济学
European Review of Agricultural Economics Pub Date : 2026-06-24 DOI: 10.1093/erae/jbag012
Lærke Jensbye,Wusheng Yu,Francesco Clora
{"title":"Alternative Agricultural Carbon Border Adjustment and Climate Club Designs : a Quantitative Assessment","authors":"Lærke Jensbye,Wusheng Yu,Francesco Clora","doi":"10.1093/erae/jbag012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbag012","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We analyze alternative agricultural carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) designs across three dimensions (participating countries, emission intensity, and carbon price). We find that an agricultural CBAM by the European Union (or an expanded climate club consisting of the EU and other countries) has minor global agricultural GHG emission implications but protects the most emission intensive domestic production. Nevertheless, having a larger climate club imposing CBAM tariffs and applying exporters’ emission intensities are more effective in lowering global emissions. Compared to national carbon prices, harmonized carbon prices at climate club level can reduce trade disruptions while attaining similar emission reduction outcomes.","PeriodicalId":50476,"journal":{"name":"European Review of Agricultural Economics","volume":"32 1","pages":"908-934"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148894544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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