npj Natural Hazards最新文献

{"title":"2023 Jishishan Earthquake-triggered river terrace landslide enabled by tectonic and human activities","authors":"Zonglin Zhang, Runqiang Zeng, Shufen Zhao, Ziran Wei, Xingmin Meng, Zhao Long, Xiaorui Wang, Tianjun Qi, Ruihuan Su, Bing Wu, Jianhua Ma, Dongxia Yue, Guan Chen, Yi Zhang, Yajun Li, Yan Zhao","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00029-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44304-024-00029-4","url":null,"abstract":"The continued increase in demand for food is such that flood-irrigation-based agricultural techniques are not expected to change in the future. Consequently, in cultivated areas dominated by river terraces that experience neotectonic movements, catastrophes caused by earthquakes that trigger material liquefaction may continue to occur. Among such catastrophes, low-angle, ultra-long-distance landslides induced by synergistic effects of tectonic and human activities are events that are not fully understood but can potentially be mitigated. A landslide-mudflow that occurred on December 18, 2023, during an Ms 6.2 earthquake in Jishishan, China, on the tertiary terrace of the Yellow River. We reveal the causal mechanisms by which geomorphology, tectonics, and human activities controlled the landslide-mudflow, and outline a new, potentially widespread, dual liquefaction layer-dominated failure mode for earthquake-induced landslides on river terraces. Our findings serve as a warning that urgent landslide-potential assessments should be conducted across river terrace irrigation areas in tectonically active regions.","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-15"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00029-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142588301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Future cities demand smart and equitable infrastructure resilience modeling perspectives","authors":"J. E. Padgett, R. Rincon, P. Panakkal","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00028-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44304-024-00028-5","url":null,"abstract":"Risk-informed decisions that promote infrastructure resilience (or the ability to withstand, recover from, and adapt to stressors like natural hazards) require confident predictions of system performance now and into the future. We propose a perspective shift–one capable of handling uncertain and dynamic conditions, leveraging emerging observations from smart systems, and guided by demands for social equity. This shift requires collective efforts, but our future cities demand and deserve it.","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00028-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142588287","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Compound and cascading droughts and heatwaves decrease maize yields by nearly half in Sinaloa, Mexico","authors":"Samuel J. Sutanto, Susana B. Zarzoza Mora, Iwan Supit, Mengru Wang","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00026-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44304-024-00026-7","url":null,"abstract":"The impact of droughts and heatwaves on agriculture losses has been exacerbated by the occurrence of compound and cascading events. Here we present a study that evaluates the impact of these events both as singly and as compound and cascading on maize yield in Sinaloa Mexico from 1990 to 2022, using the WOFOST crop model. Drought and heatwave events were identified using the Standardized Precipitation Index and threshold method, respectively. Results show that yield reduction (25%) is found during extreme drought events, emphasizing the vulnerability of maize farming to unfavorable drought conditions. While heatwaves alone did not show a significant impact on maize yields, the compound and cascading droughts and heatwaves amplified the loss of maize yields by up to 44% compared to normal conditions. This study highlights the need for adaptive strategies in agriculture to sustain food security during extreme events, especially in the context of multi hazard framework.","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00026-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142397600","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Increasing dam failure risk in the USA due to compound rainfall clusters as climate changes","authors":"Jeongwoo Hwang, Upmanu Lall","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00027-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44304-024-00027-6","url":null,"abstract":"A changing climate, with intensifying precipitation may contribute to increasing failures of dams by overtopping. We present the first analysis of rainfall sequences and events associated with recent hydrologic failures of 552 dams in the United States. We find that the maximum 1-day rainfall associated with failure was often not extreme compared to dam spillway design criteria, even when accounting for rainfall statistics changing with time at each site. However, the combination of the total rainfall 5 to 30 days prior and the maximum 1-day rainfall associated with dam failure is rare. Persistent atmospheric circulation patterns that lead to recurrent rainfall events, rather than just more moisture in the atmosphere is a possible reason. The probability of these compound precipitation risks has increased across much of the country. With over 90,000 aging dams still in service, the increasing likelihood of intense rainfall sequences raises concerns about future dam failures.","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00027-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142397599","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Can we develop a more targeted approach to mitigating seismic risk?","authors":"Danhua Xin, Zhenguo Zhang, Bo Chen, Friedemann Wenzel, Yilong Li, Xiaofei Chen","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00020-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44304-024-00020-z","url":null,"abstract":"The recent high death tolls caused by large earthquakes are a further indication that earthquakes remain one of the most destructive natural hazards in the world and can seriously threaten the achievement of disaster reduction goals. To effectively reduce the existing seismic risk, the limited available mitigation resources should be allocated to areas with the most severe potential risk. However, identifying localized concentrations of risk requires detailed studies. Here, we propose a strategy to delineate regional high seismic risk zone at a fine resolution and with high confidence. We demonstrate this strategy by using the seismic hazard and loss estimation results for earthquake scenarios with a magnitude of Mw 7.5 for the Jiaocheng fault of the Shanxi Rift System, China. Our analyses reveal that the delineated zone accounts for only ~7% of the regional land area but for ~85% of the total financial loss. We recommend prioritizing seismic risk mitigation measures in such high-risk zones, especially for densely populated cities in seismically active areas, to better meet the disaster risk reduction targets in the Sendai Framework.","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-21"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00020-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142123431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Weaving equity into infrastructure resilience research: a decadal review and future directions","authors":"Natalie Coleman, Xiangpeng Li, Tina Comes, Ali Mostafavi","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00022-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44304-024-00022-x","url":null,"abstract":"Infrastructure resilience plays an important role in mitigating the negative impacts of natural hazards by ensuring the continued accessibility and availability of resources. Increasingly, equity is recognized as essential for infrastructure resilience. Yet, after about a decade of research on equity in infrastructure resilience, what is missing is a systematic overview of the state of the art and a research agenda across different infrastructures and hazards. To address this gap, this paper presents a systematic review of equity literature on infrastructure resilience in relation to natural hazard events. In our systematic review of 99 studies, we followed an 8-dimensional assessment framework that recognizes 4 equity definitions including distributional-demographic, distributional-spatial, procedural, and capacity equity. Significant findings show that (1) the majority of studies found were located in the US, (2) interest in equity in infrastructure resilience has been exponentially rising, (3) most data collection methods used descriptive and open-data, particularly with none of the non-US studies using human mobility data, (4) limited quantitative studies used non-linear analysis such as agent-based modeling and gravity networks, (5) distributional equity is mostly studied through disruptions in power, water, and transportation caused by flooding and tropical cyclones, and (6) other equity aspects, such as procedural equity, remain understudied. We propose that future research directions could quantify the social costs of infrastructure resilience and advocate a better integration of equity into resilience decision-making. This study fills a critical gap in how equity considerations can be integrated into infrastructure resilience against natural hazards, providing a comprehensive overview of the field and developing future research directions to enhance societal outcomes during and after disasters. As such, this paper is meant to inform and inspire researchers, engineers, and community leaders to understand the equity implications of their work and to embed equity at the heart of infrastructure resilience plans.","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-19"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00022-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142123430","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"What predicts hurricane evacuation decisions? The importance of efficacy beliefs, risk perceptions, and other factors","authors":"Rebecca E. Morss, Cara L. Cuite, Julie L. Demuth","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00025-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44304-024-00025-8","url":null,"abstract":"Risk theories and empirical research indicate that a variety of factors can influence people’s protective decisions for natural hazards. Using data from an online survey that presented coastal U.S. residents with a hypothetical hurricane scenario, this study investigates the relative importance of cognitive risk perceptions, negative affect, efficacy beliefs, and other factors in explaining people’s anticipated evacuation decisions. The analysis finds that multiple factors, including individual and household characteristics, previous experiences, cognitive and affective risk perceptions, and efficacy beliefs, can help predict hurricane evacuation intentions. However, the largest amount of variance in survey participants’ evacuation intentions is explained by their evacuation-related response efficacy (coping appraisals) and their perceived likelihood of getting hurt if they stay home during the storm. Additional analysis explores how risk perceptions and efficacy beliefs interact to influence people’s responses to risk information. Although further investigation in additional situations is needed, these results suggest that persuading people at high risk that evacuating is likely to reduce harm can serve as an important risk communication lever for motivating hurricane evacuation.","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-15"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00025-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142013699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Floods across the eastern United States are projected to last longer","authors":"Hanbeen Kim, Gabriele Villarini","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00021-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44304-024-00021-y","url":null,"abstract":"While there is growing attention toward the changes in flood magnitude and frequency, little is known about the way climate change could impact flood duration. Here we focus on 378 streamgages across the eastern United States to develop statistical models that allow the description of the year-to-year changes in flood duration above two National Weather Service (NWS) flood severity levels (i.e., minor and moderate). We use climate-related variables (i.e., basin- and season-averaged precipitation and temperature) as predictors, and show that they can be used to describe the inter-annual variability in seasonal flood durations for both NWS flood severity levels. We then use the insights from the understanding of the historical changes to provide an assessment of the projected changes in flood durations using global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and multiple shared socio-economic pathways. Our results show that the eastern United States is projected to experience longer flood durations, especially in winter (i.e., the main flood season) and under higher emission scenarios.","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-7"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00021-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141973751","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Seismic signature of an extreme hydro-meteorological event in Italy","authors":"Velio Coviello, Mauro Palo, Elisa Adirosi, Matteo Picozzi","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00018-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44304-024-00018-7","url":null,"abstract":"Flash floods are a major threat for Mediterranean countries and their frequency is expected to increase in the next years due to the climatic change. Civil protection agencies are called to deal with increasing hydrological risk, but existing hydro-meteorological monitoring networks might not be enough for detecting, tracking, and characterizing rapidly evolving floods produced by severe convective storms. Nowadays, hydro-meteorological information in several watersheds particularly in small and mid-size in orographically complex regions or in third-world countries, is still not available or insufficient. To improve our observational capability of these events, we propose to exploit the seismic recordings, which act as opportunistic signals and can complement well-established procedures to early detect the occurrence of flash floods at regional scale. Here, we investigate the hydro-meteorological event that hit central Italy in September 2022 and resulted in a devastating flash flood. We compare seismic data from a national monitoring network with raingauges and hydrometer data. Our evidence suggests that the main stages of the hydro-meteorological events can be tracked by the spatio-temporal evolution of the seismic noise confirming the capability of this multi-sensor approach in detecting and characterizing such kind of events.","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00018-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141968552","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Garden design can reduce wildfire risk and drive more sustainable co-existence with wildfire","authors":"Stefania Ondei, Owen F. Price, David M.J.S. Bowman","doi":"10.1038/s44304-024-00012-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s44304-024-00012-z","url":null,"abstract":"Destructive wildfire disasters are escalating globally, challenging existing fire management paradigms. The establishment of defensible space around homes in wildland and rural urban interfaces can help to reduce the risk of house loss and provide a safe area for residents and firefighters to defend the property from wildfire. Although defensible space is a well-established concept in fire management, it has received surprisingly limited scientific discussion. Here we reviewed guidelines on the creation of defensible space from Africa, Europe, North America, South America, and Oceania. We developed a conceptual model of defensible space framed around the key recommended approaches to mitigate fire attack mechanisms, which address fuel types, amount, and spatial distribution. We found that zonation within the defensible space is commonly recommended; reduction (or removal) of all fuels, and particularly dead plant material, is usually suggested in close ( < 1.5 m; Fuel-free zone) proximity to a house. Conversely, in an intermediate space (1.5–10 m; Open zone), guidelines focus predominantly on minimizing fuel horizontal and vertical connectivity. Finally, in the outer part of the garden (10–30 m; Tree zone) trees can provide canopy shielding from ember attack and radiant energy, but management of on-ground fuel is still recommended. Evidence from the scientific literature broadly supported these defensible space design elements, although many studies were highly localised. Further empirical and modelling research is required to identify optimal zonation surrounding houses, and to better understand how garden structure, species composition and moisture status affects risk of ignition from embers, radiant heat, and flames.","PeriodicalId":501712,"journal":{"name":"npj Natural Hazards","volume":" ","pages":"1-13"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s44304-024-00012-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141968551","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}