The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics最新文献

{"title":"Does Nominal Wage Stickiness Affect Fiscal Multiplier in a Two-Agent New Keynesian Model?","authors":"Daisuke Ida, Mitsuhiro Okano","doi":"10.1515/bejm-2023-0213","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2023-0213","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the effect of nominal wage stickiness on the fiscal multiplier in a two-agent new Keynesian model. We demonstrate that in the case of sticky nominal wages, an increased share of liquidity-constrained (LC) consumers decreases the money-financed (MF) fiscal multiplier. Our model shows that the fiscal multiplier under an MF regime outperforms that under a debt-financed (DF) regime. Under empirically plausible calibration, the benchmark model indicates that the MF government-spending multiplier is 1.5–3.0, whereas the DF multiplier is 0.8–1.5. We also find that an increased share of LC consumers magnifies the tax-cut multiplier in the cases of MF and DF regimes despite nominal wage stickiness.","PeriodicalId":501401,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"7 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142210530","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Monetary Policy Transmission in Canada – A High Frequency Identification Approach","authors":"Matt Soosalu","doi":"10.1515/bejm-2023-0212","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2023-0212","url":null,"abstract":"I study the effects of monetary policy shocks in Canada on economic and financial variables. With a narrow window around a policy announcement, I create a new set of intraday level, high-frequency monetary policy surprises using the three-month Canadian Bankers’ acceptance rate futures. I use this measure to identify monetary policy shocks as an external instrument in a monthly VAR. Following a 25 basis point contractionary policy shock, I find that the decline in output is more powerful and peaks earlier than previous empirical works show, with a peak decline of 0.5 % points after 18 months. Price level declines are similarly more powerful and earlier, reaching a decline of 0.3 % points after 24 months. In addition, increases in the credit and mortgage spreads indicate the presence of a domestic credit channel of monetary policy transmission for Canada. Finally, I show that the surprise measure is robust to information effects.","PeriodicalId":501401,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"75 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141887198","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Inflation Uncertainty from Firms’ Perspective, Overconfidence and Credibility of Monetary Policy","authors":"Fernando Borraz, Anna Orlik, Laura Zacheo","doi":"10.1515/bejm-2023-0161","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2023-0161","url":null,"abstract":"This paper uses survey data to gauge firms’ inflation uncertainty. First, it shows how commonly used proxies of uncertainty, such as <jats:italic>ex post</jats:italic> squared forecast errors or forecast dispersion differ from measures of actual <jats:italic>ex ante</jats:italic> inflation uncertainty. Second, this paper documents novel stylized facts: firms’ uncertainty and overconfidence – low <jats:italic>ex ante</jats:italic> variances compared to <jats:italic>ex post</jats:italic> (squared) forecast errors – are shown to be relevant for how firms’ form their beliefs about inflation and their inflation forecasts accuracy (firms know what they do not know) and to impact firms’ beliefs about credibility of monetary policy.","PeriodicalId":501401,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"48 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141870227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Child Labor, Corruption, and Development","authors":"Toshiki Miyashita, Kohei Okada, Kei Takakura","doi":"10.1515/bejm-2024-0045","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2024-0045","url":null,"abstract":"Employing an overlapping generations model with endogenous education choice and corruption, we investigate how child labor and corruption influence human capital accumulation and development. We show that multiple steady states exist in the economy. One steady state has a high level of human capital, while the other has a low level of human capital. In the steady state with a low level of human capital, child labor and corruption exist, fertility and child mortality rates are high, and the welfare level is low. Conversely, in the steady state with a high level of human capital, child labor and corruption are diminished, fertility and child mortality rates are low, and welfare is high. In addition, we show that it is difficult to steer an economy away from a poverty trap with child labor and corruption because bureaucrats of the current generation are opposed to policy changes, such as the reinforcement of monitoring and penal regulations. However, we highlight the possibility for the government to develop the economy in the poverty trap by implementing an education policy, which is Pareto improving.","PeriodicalId":501401,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"58 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141547420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Corporate Tax Rates, Allocative Efficiency, and Aggregate Productivity","authors":"Marcos Dinerstein, Fausto Patiño Peña","doi":"10.1515/bejm-2023-0138","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2023-0138","url":null,"abstract":"This paper quantifies the impact of effective corporate tax rates on aggregate total factor productivity (TFP). Using Chilean manufacturing data, we document a large dispersion in the effective tax rate faced by firms and a mass of firms facing a 0 percent tax rate. We integrate these findings into a standard monopolistic competition model, where firms are subject to corporate taxation and also face output and capital wedges, which represent all other distortions present in the economy. We find that eliminating corporate tax rates increases TFP between 4 and 11 percent. We consider counterfactual policies in which firms face a uniform flat tax rate and find a monotonically decreasing relationship between the level of the tax rate and TFP.","PeriodicalId":501401,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"244 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141507042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A DSGE Model with Government-owned Banks","authors":"Hamilton Galindo Gil, Alexis Montecinos","doi":"10.1515/bejm-2023-0099","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2023-0099","url":null,"abstract":"How relevant are government-owned banks in the economy, especially during recessions? We study the role of government-owned banks in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with heterogeneous financial intermediaries, heterogeneous households, and minimum capital requirement constraints. We show that the capitalization of government-owned banks during recessions smooths the effects of a negative shock and helps the economy recover more quickly. However, these stabilizing effects could be partially offset by banks’ inefficiency in transforming one unit of capital into loans. Therefore, ignoring the heterogeneity between private and government-owned banks may lead to misleading assessments and conclusions regarding the effects of economic policies on the macroeconomic and banking variables. This is particularly important for evaluating the effectiveness of macroprudential policies.","PeriodicalId":501401,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140592736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Government Spending Between Active and Passive Monetary Policy: An Invariance Result","authors":"Sebastian Laumer, Collin Philipps","doi":"10.1515/bejm-2024-0022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2024-0022","url":null,"abstract":"This paper develops a new approach to analyze the relationship between the government spending multiplier and monetary policy. We embed measures of monetary policy activism into a nonlinear SVAR model. Our model allows the central bank to adjust its monetary policy regime in response to the economic conditions that arise after government spending shocks. We find that, regardless of the monetary policy regime at the time of a spending shock, the central bank adjusts its regime quickly and responds actively towards inflation only a few quarters after the shock hits the economy. This rapid response of monetary policy leaves medium-run multipliers ultimately unaffected by whether the initial regime was active or passive. For both initial regimes, our five-year multiplier estimates lie between 1.2 and 1.5. An apparent exception to this result is the zero lower bound period between 2008Q4 and 2015Q4-during which monetary policy kept nominal interest rates at zero. Our multiplier point estimates for that era are consistently larger than unity.","PeriodicalId":501401,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"85 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140592491","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trust in Government in a Changing World: Shocks, Tax Evasion, and Economic Growth","authors":"James Alm, Raul A. Barreto","doi":"10.1515/bejm-2024-0014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2024-0014","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Governments are always dealing with unexpected shocks, like wars, terrorism, financial crises, natural disasters, and the like. A recent prominent example is the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Since early 2020, governments around the world have enacted a range of unprecedented measures in an attempt to protect their citizens, with quite mixed results. This varied record has in turn had dramatic effects on peoples’ perceptions of their government, especially on their trust in government and so on their willingness to obey the many government mandates generated by the pandemic. This willingness to obey government mandates extends well beyond pandemic policies to all other dimensions of government laws and regulations. An important dimension of individual compliance with government mandates is tax evasion. What will be the effects of the pandemic and the associated government policies on post-pandemic tax evasion and economic growth, especially via the effects of government policies on “trust” in the government? In this paper we incorporate both tax evasion and trust in an endogenous growth model in order to examine the short and long run impacts on tax evasion of various shocks – a pandemic shock, a government policies shock, and a tax morale shock (and the resulting impact on trust in government). We then use real data on 11 representative economies to simulate these effects, economies representing developed and developing countries as well as economies representing governments that opted for various policy responses to COVID-19, modelled as a labor productivity shock. We find that varied public policy responses to the pandemic have immediate and persistent impacts on tax evasion in the short and long run, largely via their effects on trust in government. We also find that these evasion impacts vary in important and predictable ways that depend especially on whether government dealt effectively or not with the pandemic. Our methodology is readily adapted to examine the effects of other shocks and their respective policy responses on trust in government, tax evasion, and economic growth.","PeriodicalId":501401,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"36 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140080846","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Does Uncertainty Matter for the Fiscal Consolidation and Investment Nexus?","authors":"Ioannis Bournakis, Nelson R. Ramírez-Rondán","doi":"10.1515/bejm-2023-0059","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2023-0059","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this research paper is to investigate whether there are non-linearities in the relationship between fiscal consolidation and investment. To achieve this, we take into account the overall state of the economy, as represented by the level of uncertainty. We analyzed a sample of 27 OECD countries from 1996 to 2019 and identified two different regimes of low and high uncertainty. We found that the relationship between fiscal policy and investment is significantly different in these two regimes. In the low uncertainty regime, fiscal tightening has no significant effect on investment. In contrast, in the high uncertainty regime, fiscal tightening has a negative impact on investment, which is three times larger than in the low uncertainty regime. Our results are robust, and have been confirmed through a range of sensitivity tests.","PeriodicalId":501401,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"177 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140018278","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Merging Structural and Reduced-Form Models for Forecasting","authors":"Jaime Martinez-Martin, Richard Morris, Luca Onorante, Fabio Massimo Piersanti","doi":"10.1515/bejm-2022-0170","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2022-0170","url":null,"abstract":"Recent economic crises have posed important challenges for forecasting. Models estimated pre-crisis may perform badly when normal economic relationships have been disrupted. Meanwhile, forecasting, especially in central banks, is increasingly based on a suite of models, following two main approaches: structural (DSGE) and reduced form. The challenge remains to identify which model – or combination of models – is likely to make better forecasts in a changing environment. We explore this issue by assessing the forecasting performance of combinations of a medium-scale DSGE model with standard reduced-form methods applied to the Spanish economy and a reference period that includes both the great recession and the sovereign debt crisis. Our findings suggest that: (i) the mean reverting properties of the DSGE model cause it to underestimate the growth of real variables following the inclusion of crisis episodes in the estimation period; (ii) despite this, reduced-form VARs benefit from the imposition of an economic prior from the structural model; but (iii) pooling information in the form of variables extracted from the structural model with (B)VAR methods does not improve forecast accuracy. By analysing the quantiles of the predictive distributions, we also provide evidence that merging models can help improve the forecast in a context including crisis episodes.","PeriodicalId":501401,"journal":{"name":"The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics","volume":"104 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-02-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139752754","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}