Mathematical Medicine and Biology-A Journal of the Ima最新文献

{"title":"Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 pandemic in the context of sub-Saharan Africa: a short-term forecasting in Cameroon and Gabon.","authors":"C H Nkwayep,&nbsp;S Bowong,&nbsp;B Tsanou,&nbsp;M A Aziz Alaoui,&nbsp;J Kurths","doi":"10.1093/imammb/dqab020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/imammb/dqab020","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this paper, we propose and analyse a compartmental model of COVID-19 to predict and control the outbreak. We first formulate a comprehensive mathematical model for the dynamical transmission of COVID-19 in the context of sub-Saharan Africa. We provide the basic properties of the model and compute the basic reproduction number $mathcal {R}_0$ when the parameter values are constant. After, assuming continuous measurement of the weekly number of newly COVID-19 detected cases, newly deceased individuals and newly recovered individuals, the Ensemble of Kalman filter (EnKf) approach is used to estimate the unmeasured variables and unknown parameters, which are assumed to be time-dependent using real data of COVID-19. We calibrated the proposed model to fit the weekly data in Cameroon and Gabon before, during and after the lockdown. We present the forecasts of the current pandemic in these countries using the estimated parameter values and the estimated variables as initial conditions. During the estimation period, our findings suggest that $mathcal {R}_0 approx 1.8377 $ in Cameroon, while $mathcal {R}_0 approx 1.0379$ in Gabon meaning that the disease will not die out without any control measures in theses countries. Also, the number of undetected cases remains high in both countries, which could be the source of the new wave of COVID-19 pandemic. Short-term predictions firstly show that one can use the EnKf to predict the COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa and that the second vague of the COVID-19 pandemic will still increase in the future in Gabon and in Cameroon. A comparison between the basic reproduction number from human individuals $mathcal {R}_{0h}$ and from the SARS-CoV-2 in the environment $mathcal {R}_{0v}$ has been done in Cameroon and Gabon. A comparative study during the estimation period shows that the transmissions from the free SARS-CoV-2 in the environment is greater than that from the infected individuals in Cameroon with $mathcal {R}_{0h}$ = 0.05721 and $mathcal {R}_{0v}$ = 1.78051. This imply that Cameroonian apply distancing measures between individual more than with the free SARS-CoV-2 in the environment. But, the opposite is observed in Gabon with $mathcal {R}_{0h}$ = 0.63899 and $mathcal {R}_{0v}$ = 0.39894. So, it is important to increase the awareness campaigns to reduce contacts from individual to individual in Gabon. However, long-term predictions reveal that the COVID-19 detected cases will play an important role in the spread of the disease. Further, we found that there is a necessity to increase timely the surveillance by using an awareness program and a detection process, and the eradication of the pandemic is highly dependent on the control measures taken by each government.</p>","PeriodicalId":49863,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Medicine and Biology-A Journal of the Ima","volume":"39 1","pages":"1-48"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39832256","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A multi-scale/multi-physics model for the theoretical study of the vascular configuration of retinal capillary plexuses based on OCTA data.","authors":"Greta Chiaravalli,&nbsp;Giovanna Guidoboni,&nbsp;Riccardo Sacco,&nbsp;Jake Radell,&nbsp;Alon Harris","doi":"10.1093/imammb/dqab018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/imammb/dqab018","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The retinal tissue is highly metabolically active and is responsible for translating the visual stimuli into electrical signals to be delivered to the brain. A complex vascular structure ensures an adequate supply of blood and oxygen, which is essential for the function and survival of the retinal tissue. To date, a complete understanding of the configuration of the retinal vascular structures is still lacking. Optical coherence tomography angiography has made available a huge amount of imaging data regarding the main retinal capillary plexuses, namely the superficial capillary plexuses (SCP), intermediate capillary plexuses (ICP) and deep capillary plexuses (DCP). However, the interpretation of these data is still controversial. In particular, the question of whether the three capillary plexuses are connected in series or in parallel remains a matter of debate. In this work, we address this question by utilizing a multi-scale/multi-physics mathematical model to quantify the impact of the two hypothesized vascular configurations on retinal hemodynamics and oxygenation. The response to central retinal vein occlusion (CRVO) and intraocular pressure (IOP) elevation is also simulated depending on whether the capillary plexuses are connected in series or in parallel. The simulation results show the following: (i) in the in series configuration, the plexuses exhibit a differential response, with DCP and ICP experiencing larger pressure drops than SCP; and (ii) in the in parallel configuration, the blood flow redistributes uniformly in the three plexuses. The different vascular configurations show different responses also in terms of oxygen profiles: (i) in the in series configuration, the outer nuclear layer, outer plexiform layer and inner nuclear layer (INL) are those most affected by CRVO and IOP elevation; and (ii) in the in parallel configuration the INL and ganglion cell layer are those most affected. The in series results are consistent with studies on paracentral acute middle maculopathy, secondary to CRVO and with studies on IOP elevation, in which DCP and ICP and the retinal tissues surrounding them are those most affected by ischemia. These findings seem to suggest that the in series configuration better describes the physiology of the vascular retinal capillary network in health and disease.</p>","PeriodicalId":49863,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Medicine and Biology-A Journal of the Ima","volume":"39 1","pages":"77-104"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8906920/pdf/nihms-1785503.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39681000","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Stochastic mathematical models for the spread of COVID-19: a novel epidemiological approach.","authors":"Ayman Mourad,&nbsp;Fatima Mroue,&nbsp;Zahraa Taha","doi":"10.1093/imammb/dqab019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/imammb/dqab019","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this paper, three stochastic mathematical models are developed for the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). These models take into account the known special characteristics of this disease such as the existence of infectious undetected cases and the different social and infectiousness conditions of infected people. In particular, they include a novel approach that considers the social structure, the fraction of detected cases over the real total infected cases, the influx of undetected infected people from outside the borders, as well as contact-tracing and quarantine period for travellers. Two of these models are discrete time-discrete state space models (one is simplified and the other is complete) while the third one is a continuous time-continuous state space stochastic integro-differential model obtained by a formal passing to the limit from the proposed simplified discrete model. From a numerical point of view, the particular case of Lebanon has been studied and its reported data have been used to estimate the complete discrete model parameters, which can be of interest in estimating the spread of COVID-19 in other countries. The obtained simulation results have shown a good agreement with the reported data. Moreover, a parameters' analysis is presented in order to better understand the role of some of the parameters. This may help policy makers in deciding on different social distancing measures.</p>","PeriodicalId":49863,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Medicine and Biology-A Journal of the Ima","volume":"39 1","pages":"49-76"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39800496","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"OUP accepted manuscript","authors":"","doi":"10.1093/imammb/dqac002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/imammb/dqac002","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49863,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Medicine and Biology-A Journal of the Ima","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81685223","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"OUP accepted manuscript","authors":"","doi":"10.1093/imammb/dqac006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/imammb/dqac006","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49863,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Medicine and Biology-A Journal of the Ima","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78933610","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"OUP accepted manuscript","authors":"","doi":"10.1093/imammb/dqac001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/imammb/dqac001","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49863,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Medicine and Biology-A Journal of the Ima","volume":"65 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76705825","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Predicting elimination of evolving virus variants","authors":"Elliott Hughes, Rachelle N. Binny, S. Hendy, A. James","doi":"10.1101/2021.06.24.21259501","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.06.24.21259501","url":null,"abstract":"As the SARS-CoV-2 virus spreads around the world new variants are appearing regularly. Although some countries have achieved very swift and successful vaccination campaigns, on a global scale the vast majority of the population is unvaccinated and new variants are proving more resistant to the current set of vaccines. We present a simple model of disease spread which includes the evolution of new variants and varying vaccine effectiveness to these new strains. We show that rapid vaccine updates to target new strains are more effective than slow updates and containing spread through non-pharmaceutical interventions is vital whilst these vaccines are delivered. Finally when measuring the key model inputs, e.g. the rate at which new mutations and variants of concern emerge, is difficult we show how an observable model output, the number of new variants which have been seen, is strongly correlated with the probability the virus is eliminated.","PeriodicalId":49863,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Medicine and Biology-A Journal of the Ima","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73137889","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bifurcation analysis of a phage-bacteria interaction model with prophage induction.","authors":"H M Ndongmo Teytsa,&nbsp;B Tsanou,&nbsp;S Bowong,&nbsp;J M-S Lubuma","doi":"10.1093/imammb/dqaa010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/imammb/dqaa010","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>A predator-prey model is used to investigate the interactions between phages and bacteria by considering the lytic and lysogenic life cycles of phages and the prophage induction. We provide answers to the following conflictual research questions: (1) what are conditions under which the presence of phages can purify a bacterial infected environment? (2) Can the presence of phages triggers virulent bacterial outbreaks? We derive the basic offspring number $mathcal N_0$ that serves as a threshold and the bifurcation parameter to study the dynamics and bifurcation of the system. The model exhibits three equilibria: an unstable environment-free equilibrium, a globally asymptotically stable (GAS) phage-free equilibrium (PFE) whenever $mathcal N_0<1$, and a locally asymptotically stable environment-persistent equilibrium (EPE) when $mathcal N_0>1$. The Lyapunov-LaSalle techniques are used to prove the GAS of the PFE and estimate the EPE basin of attraction. Through the center manifold approximation, topological types of the PFE are precised. Existence of transcritical and Hopf bifurcations are established. Precisely, when $mathcal N_0>1$, the EPE loses its stability and periodic solutions arise. Furthermore, increasing $mathcal N_0$ can purify an environment where bacteriophages are introduced. Purposely, we prove that for large values of $mathcal N_0$, the overall bacterial population asymptotically approaches zero, while the phage population sustains. Ecologically, our results show that for small values of $mathcal N_0$, the existence of periodic solutions could explain the occurrence of repetitive bacteria-borne disease outbreaks, while large value of $mathcal N_0$ clears bacteria from the environment. Numerical simulations support our theoretical results.</p>","PeriodicalId":49863,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Medicine and Biology-A Journal of the Ima","volume":"38 1","pages":"28-58"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/imammb/dqaa010","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"38208768","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Stability of a non-local kinetic model for cell migration with density-dependent speed.","authors":"Nadia Loy,&nbsp;Luigi Preziosi","doi":"10.1093/imammb/dqaa013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/imammb/dqaa013","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The aim of this article is to study the stability of a non-local kinetic model proposed by Loy & Preziosi (2020a) in which the cell speed is affected by the cell population density non-locally measured and weighted according to a sensing kernel in the direction of polarization and motion. We perform the analysis in a $d$-dimensional setting. We study the dispersion relation in the one-dimensional case and we show that the stability depends on two dimensionless parameters: the first one represents the stiffness of the system related to the cell turning rate, to the mean speed at equilibrium and to the sensing radius, while the second one relates to the derivative of the mean speed with respect to the density evaluated at the equilibrium. It is proved that for Dirac delta sensing kernels centered at a finite distance, corresponding to sensing limited to a given distance from the cell center, the homogeneous configuration is linearly unstable to short waves. On the other hand, for a uniform sensing kernel, corresponding to uniformly weighting the information collected up to a given distance, the most unstable wavelength is identified and consistently matches the numerical solution of the kinetic equation.</p>","PeriodicalId":49863,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Medicine and Biology-A Journal of the Ima","volume":"38 1","pages":"83-105"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/imammb/dqaa013","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"38730097","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The optimal age of vaccination against dengue in Brazil based on serotype-specific forces of infection derived from serological data.","authors":"Sandra B Maier,&nbsp;Eduardo Massad,&nbsp;Marcos Amaku,&nbsp;Marcelo N Burattini,&nbsp;David Greenhalgh","doi":"10.1093/imammb/dqaa007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/imammb/dqaa007","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this paper, we study a single serotype transmission model of dengue to determine the optimal vaccination age for Dengvaxia. The transmission dynamics are modelled with an age-dependent force of infection. The force of infection for each serotype is derived from the serological profile of dengue in Brazil without serotype distinction and from serotype-specific reported cases. The risk due to an infection is measured by the probability of requiring hospitalization based on Brazilian Ministry of Health data. The optimal vaccination age is determined for any number and combination of the four distinct dengue virus serotypes DENv1-4. The lifetime expected risk is adapted to include antibody dependent enhancement (ADE) and permanent cross-immunity after two heterologous infections. The risk is assumed to be serostatus-dependent. The optimal vaccination age is computed for constant, serostatus-specific vaccine efficacies. Additionally, the vaccination age is restricted to conform to the licence of Dengvaxia in Brazil and the achievable and minimal lifetime expected risks are compared. The optimal vaccination age obtained for the risk of hospitalization varies significantly with the assumptions relating to ADE and cross-immunity. Risk-free primary infections lead to higher optimal vaccination ages, as do asymptomatic third and fourth infections. Sometimes vaccination is not recommended at all, e.g. for any endemic area with a single serotype if primary infections are risk-free. Restricting the vaccination age to Dengvaxia licensed ages mostly leads to only a slightly higher lifetime expected risk and the vaccine should be administered as close as possible to the optimal vaccination age.</p>","PeriodicalId":49863,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Medicine and Biology-A Journal of the Ima","volume":"38 1","pages":"1-27"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2021-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1093/imammb/dqaa007","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"38157400","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}