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Test of Power Transformation Function to Hydrometeor and Water Vapor Mixing Ratios for Direct Variational Assimilation of Radar Reflectivity Data 直接变分同化雷达反射率数据对水流星和水汽混合比的功率变换函数试验
IF 2.9 3区 地球科学
Weather and Forecasting Pub Date : 2023-08-02 DOI: 10.1175/waf-d-22-0158.1
Jiafen Hu, Jidong Gao, Chengsi Liu, Guifu Zhang, P. Heinselman, Jacob T. Carlin
{"title":"Test of Power Transformation Function to Hydrometeor and Water Vapor Mixing Ratios for Direct Variational Assimilation of Radar Reflectivity Data","authors":"Jiafen Hu, Jidong Gao, Chengsi Liu, Guifu Zhang, P. Heinselman, Jacob T. Carlin","doi":"10.1175/waf-d-22-0158.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-22-0158.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Assimilating radar reflectivity into convective-scale NWP models remains a challenging topic in radar data assimilation. A primary reason is that the reflectivity forward observation operator is highly nonlinear. To address this challenge, a power transformation function is applied to the WRF model’s hydrometeor and water vapor mixing ratio variables in this study. Three 3-D variational data assimilation experiments are performed and compared for five high-impact weather events that occurred in 2019: (i) a control experiment that assimilates reflectivity using the original hydrometeor mixing ratios as control variables, (ii) an experiment that assimilates reflectivity using power-transformed hydrometeor mixing ratios as control variables, and (iii) an experiment that assimilates reflectivity and retrieved pseudo-water vapor observations using power-transformed hydrometeor and water vapor mixing ratios (qv) as control variables. Both qualitative and quantitative evaluations are performed for 0–3-hour forecasts from the five cases. The analysis and forecast performance in the two experiments with power-transformed mixing ratios is better than the control experiment. Notably, the assimilation of pseudo-water vapor with power-transformed qv as an additional control variable is found to improve the performance of the analysis and short-term forecasts for all cases. In addition, the convergence rate of the cost function minimization for the two experiments that use the power transformation is faster than that of the control experiments.","PeriodicalId":49369,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Forecasting","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2023-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44937379","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Using Object-Based Verification to Assess Improvements in Forecasts of Convective Storms Between Operational HRRR Versions 3 and 4 使用基于对象的验证来评估运行HRRR版本3和版本4之间对流风暴预报的改进
IF 2.9 3区 地球科学
Weather and Forecasting Pub Date : 2023-08-02 DOI: 10.1175/waf-d-22-0181.1
Jeffrey D. Duda, David D. Turner
{"title":"Using Object-Based Verification to Assess Improvements in Forecasts of Convective Storms Between Operational HRRR Versions 3 and 4","authors":"Jeffrey D. Duda, David D. Turner","doi":"10.1175/waf-d-22-0181.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-22-0181.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000The object-based verification procedure described in a recent paper (Duda and Turner 2021) was expanded herein to compare forecasts of composite reflectivity and 6-h precipitation objects between the two most recent operational versions of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model, versions 3 and 4, over an expanded set of warm season cases in 2019 and 2020. In addition to analyzing all objects, a reduced set of forecast-observation object pairs was constructed by taking the best forecast match to a given observation object for the purposes of bias-reduction and unequivocal object comparison. Despite the apparent signal of improved scalar metrics such as the object-based threat score in HRRRv4 compared to HRRRv3, no statistically significant differences were found between the models. Nonetheless, many object attribute comparisons revealed indications of improved forecast performance in HRRRv4 compared to HRRRv3. For example, HRRRv4 had a reduced over-forecasting bias for medium and large-sized reflectivity objects, and all objects during the afternoon. HRRRv4 also better replicated the distribution of object complexity and aspect ratio. Results for 6-h precipitation also suggested superior performance in HRRRv4 over HRRRv3. However, HRRRv4 was worse with centroid displacement errors and more severely over-forecast objects with a high maximum precipitation amount. Overall, this exercise revealed multiple forecast deficiencies in the HRRR, which enables developers to direct development efforts on detailed and specific endeavors to improve model forecasts.","PeriodicalId":49369,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Forecasting","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2023-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43648116","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Masthead 报头
IF 2.9 3区 地球科学
Weather and Forecasting Pub Date : 2023-08-01 DOI: 10.1175/waf-388masthead
{"title":"Masthead","authors":"","doi":"10.1175/waf-388masthead","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-388masthead","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":49369,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Forecasting","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47649770","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Evaluating Medium-Range Forecast Performance of Regional-Scale Circulation Patterns 评价区域尺度环流型的中期预报性能
3区 地球科学
Weather and Forecasting Pub Date : 2023-08-01 DOI: 10.1175/waf-d-22-0149.1
Omon A. Obarein, Cameron C. Lee, Erik T. Smith, Scott C. Sheridan
{"title":"Evaluating Medium-Range Forecast Performance of Regional-Scale Circulation Patterns","authors":"Omon A. Obarein, Cameron C. Lee, Erik T. Smith, Scott C. Sheridan","doi":"10.1175/waf-d-22-0149.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-22-0149.1","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Accurate subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) weather forecasts are crucial to making important decisions in many sectors. However, significant gaps exist between the needs of society and what forecasters can produce, especially at weekly and longer lead times. We hypothesize that by clustering atmospheric states into a number of predefined categories, the noise can be reduced and, consequently, medium-range forecasts can be improved. Self-organizing map (SOM)-based clustering was used on daily mean sea level pressure (MSLP) data from the North American Regional Reanalysis to categorize the synoptic-scale circulation for eastern North America from 1979 to 2016 into 28 discrete patterns. Then, using two goodness-of-fit metrics, the relative skill of four different forecasting methods over a 90-day lead time was studied: 1) a circulation pattern (CP) forecast, 2) raw forecast output from the Climate Forecast System (CFS) operated by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), 3) a simple climatology forecast, and 4) a simple persistence forecast. As expected, forecast skill of both the CP forecast and the raw CFS forecast generally decreased rapidly from the first day, coming to parity with the skill of climatology after 10–12 days when using correlation, and at 7–10 days when using the root-mean-square error (RMSE). Most importantly, this study found that the CP forecast was the most skillful forecast method over the 8–11-day lead time when using RMSE. On a spatial basis, the skill of the CP forecast and the raw CFS decreases latitudinally from north to south. This study thus demonstrates the potential utility of categorical or circulation pattern–based forecasting at 1–2-week lead times.","PeriodicalId":49369,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Forecasting","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135568399","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Climatology of tropical cyclone precipitation in the S2S models S2S模式下热带气旋降水的气候学
IF 2.9 3区 地球科学
Weather and Forecasting Pub Date : 2023-07-28 DOI: 10.1175/waf-d-23-0029.1
J. L. García-Franco, Chia-ying Lee, S. Camargo, M. Tippett, Daehyun Kim, A. Molod, Y. Lim
{"title":"Climatology of tropical cyclone precipitation in the S2S models","authors":"J. L. García-Franco, Chia-ying Lee, S. Camargo, M. Tippett, Daehyun Kim, A. Molod, Y. Lim","doi":"10.1175/waf-d-23-0029.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-23-0029.1","url":null,"abstract":"This study evaluates the representation of tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) in reforecasts from the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Project. The global distribution of precipitation in S2S models shows relevant biases in the multi-model mean ensemble which are characterized by wet biases in total precipitation (P) and TCP, except for the Atlantic. The TCP biases can contribute more than 50% of total P biases in basins such as the Southern Indian Ocean and South Pacific. The magnitude and spatial pattern of these biases exhibit little variation with lead time. The origins of TCP biases can be attributed to biases in the frequency of tropical cyclone occurrence (TCF). The S2S models simulate too few TCs in the Atlantic and Western North Pacific and too many TCs in the Southern Hemisphere and Eastern North Pacific. At the storm-scale, the average peak precipitation near the storm center is lower in the models than observations due to a too high proportion of weak TCs. However, this bias is offset in some models by higher than observed precipitation rates at larger radii (300-500 km). An analysis of the mean TCP for each TC at each grid-point reveals an overestimation of TCP rates, particularly in the near-equatorial Indian and Western Pacific Oceans. These findings suggest that the simulation of TC occurrence and the storm-scale precipitation require better representation in order to reduce TCP biases and enhance the subseasonal prediction skill of mean and extreme total P.","PeriodicalId":49369,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Forecasting","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2023-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45239961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Diagnosing Factors Leading to an Incorrect Supercell Thunderstorm Forecast 导致超级单体雷暴预报错误的因素诊断
IF 2.9 3区 地球科学
Weather and Forecasting Pub Date : 2023-07-28 DOI: 10.1175/waf-d-23-0010.1
Paul D. Mykolajtchuk, K. C. Eure, D. Stensrud, Yunji Zhang, S. Greybush, M. Kumjian
{"title":"Diagnosing Factors Leading to an Incorrect Supercell Thunderstorm Forecast","authors":"Paul D. Mykolajtchuk, K. C. Eure, D. Stensrud, Yunji Zhang, S. Greybush, M. Kumjian","doi":"10.1175/waf-d-23-0010.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-23-0010.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000On 28 April 2019, hourly forecasts from the operational High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model consistently predicted an isolated supercell storm late in the day near Dodge City, Kansas, that subsequently was not observed. Two convection-allowing model (CAM) ensemble runs are created to explore the reasons for this forecast error and implications for severe weather forecasting. The 40-member CAM ensembles are run using the HRRR configuration of the WRF-ARW model at 3-km horizontal grid spacing. The Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI)-based ensemble Kalman filter is used to assimilate observations every 15 min from 1500 to 1900 UTC, with resulting ensemble forecasts run out to 0000 UTC. One ensemble only assimilates conventional observations, and its forecasts strongly resemble the operational HRRR with all ensemble members predicting a supercell storm near Dodge City. In the second ensemble, conventional observations plus observations of WSR-88D radar clear-air radial velocities, WSR-88D diagnosed convective boundary layer height, and GOES-16 all-sky infrared brightness temperatures are assimilated to improve forecasts of the pre-convective environment, and its forecasts have half of the members predicting supercells. Results further show that the magnitude of the low-level meridional water vapor flux in the moist tongue largely separates members with and without supercells, with water vapor flux differences of 12% leading to these different outcomes. Additional experiments that assimilate only radar or satellite observations show that both are important to predictions of the meridional water vapor flux. This analysis suggests that mesoscale environmental uncertainty remains a challenge that is difficult to overcome.","PeriodicalId":49369,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Forecasting","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2023-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47147693","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Interpretation of Probabilistic Surface Ozone Forecasts: A Case Study for Philadelphia 地表臭氧概率预报的解释:以费城为例
IF 2.9 3区 地球科学
Weather and Forecasting Pub Date : 2023-07-26 DOI: 10.1175/waf-d-22-0185.1
N. Balashov, A. Huff, A. Thompson
{"title":"Interpretation of Probabilistic Surface Ozone Forecasts: A Case Study for Philadelphia","authors":"N. Balashov, A. Huff, A. Thompson","doi":"10.1175/waf-d-22-0185.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-22-0185.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000The use of probabilistic forecasting has been growing in a variety of disciplines because of its potential to emphasize the degree of uncertainty inherent in a prediction. Interpretation of probabilistic forecasts, however, is oftentimes difficult deterring users who may benefit from such forecasts. To encourage broader use of probabilistic forecasts in the field of air quality, a process for interpreting forecasts from a statistical probabilistic air quality surface ozone model REGiS is demonstrated. Four procedures to convert probabilistic to deterministic forecasts are explored for Philadelphia metropolitan area. These procedures calibrate the predicted probability of daily maximum 8-hour average ozone exceeding a standard value by 1) estimating climatological relative frequency, 2) establishing a probability of an exceedance threshold as 50%, 3) maximizing the threat score, and 4) determining the unit bias ratio. REGiS is trained using 2000-2011 ozone season (May 1 to September 30) data, calibrated using 2012-2014 data, and evaluated using 2015-2018 data. Assessment of the calibration data with the Pierce Skill Score suggests an exceedance threshold based on climatological relative frequency for the conversion from probabilistic to deterministic forecasts. Calibrated REGiS generally compares well to predictions from the US national air quality model and operational ”expert” forecasts over the evaluation time period. For other probabilistic models and situations, different procedures of converting probabilistic to deterministic forecasts may be more beneficial. The methods presented in this paper represent an approach for operational air quality forecasters seeking to use probabilistic model output to support forecasts designed to protect public health.","PeriodicalId":49369,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Forecasting","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2023-07-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45969127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A parametric model of tropical cyclone surface winds for sea and land 热带气旋海面和陆地风的参数化模式
IF 2.9 3区 地球科学
Weather and Forecasting Pub Date : 2023-07-18 DOI: 10.1175/waf-d-23-0028.1
J. Kepert
{"title":"A parametric model of tropical cyclone surface winds for sea and land","authors":"J. Kepert","doi":"10.1175/waf-d-23-0028.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-23-0028.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000Parametric models of tropical cyclone winds are widely used for risk assessment. Although tropical cyclones often present their worst wind risk to humanity during landfall, parametric models that represent land-sea differences are rare. This paper presents a parametric model with explicit representation of land-sea differences. Statistical models were developed over each surface of the frictional wind speed reduction from gradient level to 10 m, and of the surface inflow angle, based on about 1200 simulations with a three-dimensional dynamical boundary layer model. The wind profile of Willoughby et al. is used to represent the gradient flow, and a maximum likelihood scheme used to fit this profile to best track data. The mean RMS difference between the statistical and dynamical surface winds within 100 km of the storm centre is 0.78ms−1 and 4.26° over sea, and 1.04ms−1 and 4.59° over land. During landfall, the use of a common gradient-level structure, but different boundary layer schemes, provides dynamical consistency between the estimated winds over sea and land. A simple representation of internal boundary layers is applied near the coast. Analysis of the dynamical simulations revealed substantial consistency with observational studies of the tropical cyclone boundary layer, including that the azimuth of the surface wind maximum is on average 65° from the front of the storm, in the left forward quadrant in the Southern Hemisphere. There was however substantial variability around this figure, with the maximum occurring in the opposite forward quadrant in storms that were intense, and/or had a relatively rapid decrease in wind speed outside of the radius of maximum winds.","PeriodicalId":49369,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Forecasting","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2023-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43434077","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Implications of Self-Contained Radiance Bias Correction for Data Assimilation within the Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting System (HAFS) 自包含辐射偏差校正对飓风分析预报系统(HAFS)数据同化的影响
IF 2.9 3区 地球科学
Weather and Forecasting Pub Date : 2023-07-13 DOI: 10.1175/waf-d-23-0027.1
Joseph Knisely, J. Poterjoy
{"title":"Implications of Self-Contained Radiance Bias Correction for Data Assimilation within the Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting System (HAFS)","authors":"Joseph Knisely, J. Poterjoy","doi":"10.1175/waf-d-23-0027.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-23-0027.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000The Hurricane Analysis and Forecasting System (HAFS) is the next-generation, FV3-based tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting system. Unlike operational implementations of NOAA’s Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) modeling system, current data assimilation (DA) capabilities in HAFS permit the uninterrupted basin-wide assimilation of measurements. This feature of HAFS opens a variety of new research directions for TC prediction, including new strategies for DA algorithm development and self-contained probabilistic forecasting. The present research focuses more narrowly on new opportunities HAFS brings for optimizing the use of satellite measurements for TC prediction. While satellite radiometers provide a wealth of information for characterizing temperature, moisture, and wind in TC environments, the provided measurements are often biased and contain unknown cross-channel error correlations. For mature global modeling systems, these statistics are estimated from information gathered during DA, namely innovations collected over large spatial and temporal training periods. The estimated statistics, however, are imperfect owing to unknown error sources such as model process error, which are difficult to separate from observation error. As such, bias and uncertainty specifications that rely on information from external models are suboptimal—as is the current strategy for HWRF. In this paper, it will be demonstrated that bias estimation for satellite radiance observations is particularly sensitive to common design choices, such as using a bias model trained from the Global Data Assimilation System instead of within the native modeling system. Implications of this finding for TC prediction are examined over a 6-week period from 2020, which included the development and intensification of 9 tropical cyclones.","PeriodicalId":49369,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Forecasting","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2023-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44695742","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Assessing Variations in the Predictive Skill of Ensemble Snowband Forecasts with Object-Oriented Verification and Self-Organizing Maps 基于面向对象验证和自组织地图的集合雪带预报预测技能变化评估
IF 2.9 3区 地球科学
Weather and Forecasting Pub Date : 2023-07-12 DOI: 10.1175/waf-d-23-0004.1
Jacob T. Radford, G. Lackmann
{"title":"Assessing Variations in the Predictive Skill of Ensemble Snowband Forecasts with Object-Oriented Verification and Self-Organizing Maps","authors":"Jacob T. Radford, G. Lackmann","doi":"10.1175/waf-d-23-0004.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-23-0004.1","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000We used object-oriented verification and self-organizing maps (SOMs) to identify patterns in environmental parameters correlating with mesoscale snowband predictive skill by the High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) system between 2017 and 2022. First, HREF snowband forecasts for 305 banding events were verified based on similarities between forecast and observed feature properties. HREF members performed comparably, demonstrating large positional errors, but the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh member demonstrated the greatest overall skill.\u0000Observed banding events were clustered by 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies, mean sea level pressure, vertical velocity, frontogenesis, and saturation equivalent potential vorticity from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 using SOMs. Clusters reaffirmed the presence of mid-level frontogenesis, ascent, and reduced stability in most banding cases, and the predominant synoptic environments conducive to band development. Clusters were compared to determine whether patterns in the variables were correlated with predictive skill. Strength of upward motion was correlated with skill, with the strongest upward motion cases verifying 10% better than the weakest upward motion cases due to smaller positional error. Additionally, events with a single region of strong upward motion verified better than events with disorganized, but comparably intense, upward motion. Magnitude of frontogenesis was uncorrelated with skill, but events with more upright frontogenesis collocated with the band centroid were better predicted than events with shallower slopes and low-level frontogenesis displaced towards warmer air. The skill variance associated with different vertical motion magnitudes could assist forecasters in modulating forecast confidence, while the most common types of errors may be beneficial to model developers in refining HREF member snowfall forecasts.","PeriodicalId":49369,"journal":{"name":"Weather and Forecasting","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2023-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43776363","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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