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A Comprehensive Macroeconomic Uncertainty Measure for the Euro Area and its Implications to COVID-19 欧元区宏观经济不确定性综合衡量及其对COVID-19的影响
IMF working paper Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.5089/9798400258176.001
Mariarosaria Comunale
{"title":"A Comprehensive Macroeconomic Uncertainty Measure for the Euro Area and its Implications to COVID-19","authors":"Mariarosaria Comunale","doi":"10.5089/9798400258176.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400258176.001","url":null,"abstract":"This paper develops a new data-driven metric to capture MacroEconomic Uncertainty (MEU) in the euro area. The measure is constructed as the conditional volatility of the unforecastable components of a large set of time series, accounting for the monetary union as well as cross-country heterogeneity. MEU exhibits the largest spike at the time of the COVID-19 outbreak and is noticeably different from other more financial-oriented and policy-driven uncertainty measures. It also reveals a significant increase in inflation uncertainty in 2021-2022. Our BVAR-based analysis shows that an unexpected increase in the MEU has a negative and persistent impact on euro area's industrial production, accounting for 80 percent of its reduction during the first wave of COVID-19, therefore supporting the interpretation of COVID-19 shock as a macroeconomic uncertainty shock. Public debt increases in response to this uncertainty shock. Finally, an increase in MEU negatively affects Emerging Europe countries, contributing the most to the decline in their economic activity during this COVID-19 period.","PeriodicalId":492383,"journal":{"name":"IMF working paper","volume":"47 9","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135455987","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A New Fiscal Framework for Resource-Rich Countries 资源丰富国家的新财政框架
IMF working paper Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI: 10.5089/9798400259609.001
Luc Eyraud
{"title":"A New Fiscal Framework for Resource-Rich Countries","authors":"Luc Eyraud","doi":"10.5089/9798400259609.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400259609.001","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":492383,"journal":{"name":"IMF working paper","volume":"43 7","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135456710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Do Household Expectations Help Predict Inflation? 家庭预期有助于预测通胀吗?
IMF working paper Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.5089/9798400258152.001
Luis Brandão-Marques
{"title":"Do Household Expectations Help Predict Inflation?","authors":"Luis Brandão-Marques","doi":"10.5089/9798400258152.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400258152.001","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":492383,"journal":{"name":"IMF working paper","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136128202","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Public Support for Climate Change Mitigation Policies: A Cross Country Survey 公众对减缓气候变化政策的支持:一项跨国调查
IMF working paper Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.5089/9798400258138.001
Era Dabla-Norris
{"title":"Public Support for Climate Change Mitigation Policies: A Cross Country Survey","authors":"Era Dabla-Norris","doi":"10.5089/9798400258138.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400258138.001","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":492383,"journal":{"name":"IMF working paper","volume":"43 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136128217","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Framework for Climate Change Mitigation in India 印度减缓气候变化框架
IMF working paper Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.5089/9798400247002.001
Jean Chateau
{"title":"A Framework for Climate Change Mitigation in India","authors":"Jean Chateau","doi":"10.5089/9798400247002.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400247002.001","url":null,"abstract":": Climate change poses challenging policy tradeoffs for India. The country faces the challenge of raising living standards for a population of 1.4 billion while at the same time needing to be a critical contributor to reducing global GHG emissions. The government has implemented numerous policies to promote the manufacturing and use of renewable energy and shift away from coal, but much still needs to be done to reach India’s 2070 net zero goal. Reducing GHG emissions will almost certainly have a negative impact on growth in the short run and have important distributional consequences for individuals and communities who today rely on coal. But with the right policies, these costs—which are non-negligible but dwarfed by the cost of climate change over the next decade if no action is taken—can be significantly curtailed. This paper provides an in depth review of the current climate policy landscape in India and models emissions trajectories under different policy options to reduce GHG emissions.","PeriodicalId":492383,"journal":{"name":"IMF working paper","volume":"62 7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136056117","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Mining the Gap: Extracting Firms’ Inflation Expectations From Earnings Calls 挖掘差距:从财报电话会议中提取企业通胀预期
IMF working paper Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.5089/9798400253522.001
Silvia Albrizio
{"title":"Mining the Gap: Extracting Firms’ Inflation Expectations From Earnings Calls","authors":"Silvia Albrizio","doi":"10.5089/9798400253522.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400253522.001","url":null,"abstract":": Using a novel approach involving natural language processing (NLP) algorithms, we construct a new cross-country index of firms' inflation expectations from earnings call transcripts. Our index has a high correlation with existing survey-based measures of firms' inflation expectations, it is robust to external validation tests and is built using a new method that outperforms other NLP algorithms. In an application of our index to United States, we uncover some facts related to firm's inflation expectations. We show that higher expected inflation translates into future inflation. Going into the firms level dimension of our index, we show departures from a rational framework in firms' inflation expectations and that firms' attention to the central enhances monetary policy effectiveness.","PeriodicalId":492383,"journal":{"name":"IMF working paper","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136056128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Long Live Globalization: Geopolitical Shocks and International Trade 全球化万岁:地缘政治冲击与国际贸易
IMF working paper Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.5089/9798400258169.001
Serhan Cevik
{"title":"Long Live Globalization: Geopolitical Shocks and International Trade","authors":"Serhan Cevik","doi":"10.5089/9798400258169.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400258169.001","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":492383,"journal":{"name":"IMF working paper","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136128071","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Commodity Markets 地缘经济分裂与商品市场
IMF working paper Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.5089/9798400252426.001
Jorge Alvarez
{"title":"Geoeconomic Fragmentation and Commodity Markets","authors":"Jorge Alvarez","doi":"10.5089/9798400252426.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400252426.001","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":492383,"journal":{"name":"IMF working paper","volume":"153 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134935136","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Financial Stress and Economic Activity: Evidence from a New Worldwide Index 金融压力与经济活动:来自一个新的全球指数的证据
IMF working paper Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.5089/9798400257636.001
Hites Ahir
{"title":"Financial Stress and Economic Activity: Evidence from a New Worldwide Index","authors":"Hites Ahir","doi":"10.5089/9798400257636.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400257636.001","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":492383,"journal":{"name":"IMF working paper","volume":"61 6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136056125","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
China Spillovers: Aggregate and Firm-Level Evidence 中国溢出效应:总体和企业层面的证据
IMF working paper Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.5089/9798400257353.001
Alexander Copestake
{"title":"China Spillovers: Aggregate and Firm-Level Evidence","authors":"Alexander Copestake","doi":"10.5089/9798400257353.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400257353.001","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":492383,"journal":{"name":"IMF working paper","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136059836","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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