Law Probability & Risk最新文献

{"title":"Inconclusives and error rates in forensic science: a signal detection theory approach","authors":"H. Arkes, J. Koehler","doi":"10.1093/lpr/mgac005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgac005","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 There are times when a forensic scientist may not be comfortable drawing a firm conclusion about whether a questioned sample that appears to contain useful identifying information did or did not come from a particular known source. In such cases, the forensic scientist may call the sample pair ‘inconclusive’. We suggest that signal detection theory (SDT), which is concerned with the detection of weak signals in noisy environments, provides a useful framework for understanding the role that inconclusives play in the various feature-matching forensic sciences. SDT shows that ‘inconclusive’ is often an appropriate response depending on both the strength of the signal in the samples and the thresholds adopted by the examiner. We also argue that inconclusives should not be coded as either correct or incorrect when tabulating forensic error rates.","PeriodicalId":48724,"journal":{"name":"Law Probability & Risk","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43338666","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Statistical Analyses in the case of an Italian nurse accused of murdering patients","authors":"R. Gill, Francesco Dotto, J. Mortera","doi":"10.1093/lpr/mgac007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgac007","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Suspicions about medical murder sometimes arise due to a surprising or unexpected series of events, such as an apparently unusual number of deaths among patients under the care of a particular nurse. But also a single disturbing event might trigger suspicion about a particular nurse, and this might then lead to investigation of events which happened when she was thought to be present. In either case, there is a statistical challenge of distinguishing event clusters that arise from criminal acts from those that arise coincidentally from other causes. We show that an apparently striking association between a nurse’s presence and a high rate of deaths in a hospital ward can easily be completely spurious. In short: in a medium-care hospital ward where many patients are suffering terminal illnesses, and deaths are frequent, most deaths occur in the morning. Most nurses are on duty in the morning, too. There are less deaths in the afternoon, and even less at night; correspondingly, less nurses are on duty in the afternoon, even less during the night. Consequently, a full time nurse works the most hours when the most deaths occur. The death rate is higher when she is present than when she is absent.","PeriodicalId":48724,"journal":{"name":"Law Probability & Risk","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45820811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"OUP accepted manuscript","authors":"","doi":"10.1093/lpr/mgac002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgac002","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48724,"journal":{"name":"Law Probability & Risk","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"61628912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"OUP accepted manuscript","authors":"","doi":"10.1093/lpr/mgac003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgac003","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48724,"journal":{"name":"Law Probability & Risk","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"61629009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"OUP accepted manuscript","authors":"","doi":"10.1093/lpr/mgac004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgac004","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48724,"journal":{"name":"Law Probability & Risk","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"61629121","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Custody of Digital Assets","authors":"Wulf A. Kaal, Hayley Howe","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3936876","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3936876","url":null,"abstract":"The custody of digital assets plays an essential role in the evolution of the digital asset industry. Fully compliant legal custody solutions for digital assets increase legal certainty and mainstream investor confidence which, in turn, helps build markets in digital assets. Once digital asset markets evolved, self-custody solutions help increase the decentralization of the digital asset market. This article examines the evolving custody solutions for digital assets.","PeriodicalId":48724,"journal":{"name":"Law Probability & Risk","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2021-10-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73741697","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Governing by Algorithm? No Noise and (Potentially) Less Bias","authors":"C. Sunstein","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3925240","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3925240","url":null,"abstract":"As intuitive statisticians, human beings suffer from identifiable biases, cognitive and otherwise. Human beings can also be “noisy,” in the sense that their judgments show unwanted variability. As a result, public institutions, including those that consist of administrative prosecutors and adjudicators, can be biased, noisy, or both. Both bias and noise produce errors. Algorithms eliminate noise, and that is important; to the extent that they do so, they prevent unequal treatment and reduce errors. In addition, algorithms do not use mental short-cuts; they rely on statistical predictors, which means that they can counteract or even eliminate cognitive biases. At the same time, the use of algorithms, by administrative agencies, raises many legitimate questions and doubts. Among other things, they can encode or perpetuate discrimination, perhaps because their inputs are based on discrimination, perhaps because what they are asked to predict is infected by discrimination. But if the goal is to eliminate discrimination, properly constructed algorithms nonetheless have a great deal of promise for administrative agencies.","PeriodicalId":48724,"journal":{"name":"Law Probability & Risk","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2021-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80338326","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Rise of Transnational Corporations in the Human Rights Age-Attaining Sustainable Development while Respecting Human Rights","authors":"Tali Israel Tali","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3387979","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3387979","url":null,"abstract":"We can no longer afford to bury our heads in the sand for we must appreciate the reality which is that private individuals and bodies such as clubs and companies wield great power over individual citizenry who should, as of necessity, be protected from such non-state bodies who may for instance discriminate unfairly or cause other constitutional breaches It is beyond peradventure that, non-state actors such as transnational corporations wield much power and often violate human rights. As opposed to the traditional view, such non state actors too have a responsibility to respect and promote human rights. This paper discusses the extent to which non-state actors are held responsible for human rights violation both under international human rights law as well as under comparative constitutional law. Philosophical as well as theoretical justifications for adopting such a position to hold non state actors responsible for human rights violations are also discussed.","PeriodicalId":48724,"journal":{"name":"Law Probability & Risk","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2021-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75882560","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"O ODS 6 e uma análise do novo marco legal do saneamento básico no Brasil (SDG 6 and Analysis of the New Legal Framework for Basic Sanitation in Brazil)","authors":"Gabriel Wedy","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3898072","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3898072","url":null,"abstract":"Portuguese Abstract: O saneamento básico, para fins jurídicos, como refere Barroso, pode ser considerado um conjunto de ações integradas que envolvem as diferentes fases do ciclo da água, compreendendo a sua captação, tratamento, adução e distribuição, concluindo com o esgotamento sanitário e a efusão industrial. Referida legislação, portanto, alterou alterou a Lei nº 9.984, de 17 de julho de 2000, para atribuir à Agência Nacional de Águas e Saneamento Básico (ANA) competência para instituir normas de referência para a regulação dos serviços públicos de saneamento básico; a Lei nº 10.768, de 19 de novembro de 2003, para alterar o nome e as atribuições do cargo de Especialista em Recursos Hídricos; a Lei nº 11.107, de 6 de abril de 2005, para vedar a prestação por contrato de programa dos serviços públicos de que trata o art. 175 da Constituição Federal; a Lei nº 11.445, de 5 de janeiro de 2007, para aprimorar as condições estruturais do saneamento básico no País; a Lei nº 12.305, de 2 de agosto de 2010, para tratar de prazos para a disposição final ambientalmente adequada dos rejeitos; a Lei nº 13.089, de 12 de janeiro de 2015 (Estatuto da Metrópole), para estender seu âmbito de aplicação a unidades regionais; e a Lei nº 13.529, de 4 de dezembro de 2017, para autorizar a União a participar de fundo com a finalidade exclusiva de financiar serviços técnicos especializados. Referido marco regulatório será analisado em cotejo com o texto constitucional de 1988, em especial, logicamente, com os artigos específicos que regulam a matéria do saneamento básico no Brasil. São estes os artigos 6, 23, 196 e 225 que estabelecem as diretrizes relacionadas ao saneamento, aos serviços de saúde e à proteção ambiental, e os artigos 21, 25, 30 e 182 que regulam as competências dos entes federados (União, Estados, Distrito Federal e municípios), consagram o pacto federativo e garantem a autonomia dos referidos entes. No mesmo sentido, haverá investigação da jurisprudência do Supremo Tribunal Federal e da doutrina sobre o tema, bem como uma verificação da normativa da Organização das Nações Unidas referente ao saneamento básico, tendo como pano de fundo a Agenda 2030 para o Desenvolvimento Sustentável e, de modo mais específico, do Objetivo do Desenvolvimento Sustentável (ODS) 6 que trata da matéria. English Abstract: Basic sanitation, for legal purposes, as Barroso refers, can be considered a set of integrated actions that involve the different phases of the water cycle, comprising its capture, treatment, adduction and distribution, concluding with sanitary exhaustion and industrial effluent. The referred legislation, therefore, altered Law No. 9.984, of July 17, 2000, to attribute to the National Agency of Waters and Basic Sanitation (ANA) competence to institute reference standards for the regulation of public services of basic sanitation; Law No. 10.768, of November 19, 2003, to alter the name and attributions of the position of Specialist in Hydric Resources; La","PeriodicalId":48724,"journal":{"name":"Law Probability & Risk","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2021-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89841048","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Between Rights and Rites: The Ironies of Crisis and Contract","authors":"Jeffrey M. Lipshaw","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3890955","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3890955","url":null,"abstract":"Is the institution of contract law in crisis? Contract and other rights are an institution of the Gesellschaft, the sociologist Ferdinand Tönnies’s metaphor for modern society. There entitlements reify in abstract principles and rules, whether or not the state enforces them. Moral and social norms, customs, and courtesies are more evocative of the Gemeinschaft, the corresponding metaphor for the traditions of religion, family, tribe, or community. The irony is the similarity between appeals to authoritative sources, whether legal or divine. The arc of history is only metaphorically from Gemeinschaft to Gesellschaft. We can still react to crises, like financial meltdowns or global pandemics, by the invocation of rights or the granting of courtesies. This essay considers whether the reification of entitlements in legal rights (including contract) contributes or detracts from our ability to get along in a reasonable and humane way. The “crisis” is far less about elements of doctrine than it is of morality; less about the enforcement of rights and more about the holders’ willingness to set them aside. During crisis, tunnel-visioned and slavish devotion to abstract contract rights may well be a culprit, not a hero.","PeriodicalId":48724,"journal":{"name":"Law Probability & Risk","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2021-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84517744","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}