International Security最新文献_第9页

Presidents, Politics, and Military Strategy: Electoral Constraints during the Iraq War 总统、政治和军事战略:伊拉克战争期间的选举限制

IF 5 1区社会学

International Security Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_a_00371

A. Payne

{"title":"Presidents, Politics, and Military Strategy: Electoral Constraints during the Iraq War","authors":"A. Payne","doi":"10.1162/isec_a_00371","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00371","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract How do electoral politics affect presidential decisionmaking in war? As both commander in chief and elected officeholder, presidents must inevitably balance competing objectives of the national interest and political survival when assessing alternative military strategies in war. Yet, how and when electoral pressures influence decisionmaking during an ongoing conflict remains unclear. Drawn from the logic of democratic accountability, two mechanisms of constraint may be inferred. First, presidents may delay making decisions that are perceived to carry excessive electoral risk. Second, electoral pressures may have a dampening effect, causing presidents to water down politically sensitive courses of action to minimize any expected backlash. Recently declassified documents and interviews with senior administration officials and military figures illustrate these mechanisms in a case study of decisionmaking during the second half of the Iraq War. Both George W. Bush's surge decision of 2007 and Barack Obama's decision to withdraw troops in 2011 are shown to have been profoundly influenced by concerns related to the domestic political calendar. These findings call for further study of the nuanced ways in which the electoral cycle shapes wartime decisionmaking.","PeriodicalId":48667,"journal":{"name":"International Security","volume":"108 1","pages":"163-203"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91305672","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 10

Who Killed Détente? The Superpowers and the Cold War in the Middle East, 1969–77 谁杀了dasten ?中东的超级大国和冷战，1969-77

IF 5 1区社会学

International Security Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_a_00369

G. Jackson

引用次数: 1

Editors' Note 编者注

IF 5 1区社会学

International Security Pub Date : 2019-11-22 DOI: 10.1162/isec.20.4.3

Dane Alivarius, Cristine Pedersen

引用次数: 0

The Domestic Politics of Nuclear Choices—A Review Essay 核选择的国内政治——一篇评论文章

IF 5 1区社会学

International Security Pub Date : 2019-10-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_a_00361

E. Saunders

{"title":"The Domestic Politics of Nuclear Choices—A Review Essay","authors":"E. Saunders","doi":"10.1162/isec_a_00361","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00361","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract When and how do domestic politics influence a state's nuclear choices? Recent scholarship on nuclear security develops many domestic-political explanations for different nuclear decisions. These explanations are partly the result of two welcome trends: first, scholars have expanded the nuclear timeline, examining state behavior before and after nuclear proliferation; and second, scholars have moved beyond blunt distinctions between democracies and autocracies to more fine-grained understandings of domestic constraints. But without linkages between them, new domestic-political findings could be dismissed as a laundry list of factors that do not explain significant variation in nuclear decisions. This review essay assesses recent research on domestic politics and nuclear security, and develops a framework that illuminates when and how domestic-political mechanisms are likely to affect nuclear choices. In contrast to most previous domestic arguments, many of the newer domestic-political mechanisms posited in the literature are in some way top-down; that is, they show leaders deliberately maintaining or loosening control over nuclear choices. Two dimensions govern the extent and nature of domestic-political influence on nuclear choices: the degree of threat uncertainty and the costs and benefits to leaders of expanding the circle of domestic actors involved in a nuclear decision. The framework developed in this review essay helps make sense of several cases explored in the recent nuclear security literature. It also has implications for understanding when and how domestic-political arguments might diverge from the predictions of security-based analyses.","PeriodicalId":48667,"journal":{"name":"International Security","volume":"11 1","pages":"146-184"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75007316","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 10

Editor-in-Chief's Note 主编的注意

IF 5 1区社会学

International Security Pub Date : 2019-10-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_e_00366

Steven E. Miller

{"title":"Editor-in-Chief's Note","authors":"Steven E. Miller","doi":"10.1162/isec_e_00366","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_e_00366","url":null,"abstract":"was launched forty-four years ago, in the summer of 1976, by what was then called the Program for Science and International Affairs. For thirty-one of those years—nearly three-fourths of its history—Sean Lynn-Jones has played a central role in running and shaping the journal. He has been a masterful manuscript diagnostician, becoming legendary as a provider of comments. He has had a keen eye for promising manuscripts and has been uncommonly skillful at pulling together interesting selections of articles. He has combined a wide knowledge of the aeld with a rare ability to situate potential articles in the literature and to judge their contribution. He has possessed an uncanny knack for the deft title. He has handled all the pressures and mishaps associated with managing a relentless decision and production process with aplomb and without losing his good nature. Through it all, he has been a congenial colleague and has retained his well-developed sense of humor. Sean deserves much of the credit for what International Security has become. Now, alas, he has decided to retire. For me personally, having worked with Sean every one of those thirty-one years, it is hard to imagine the journal without him and even more difacult to adequately express my appreciation for his enormous contribution in making and sustaining the journal as an important and respected voice in the aeld. But we must carry on without him, while wishing him well as he travels the world in fulallment of his professed retirement agenda. We are fortunate that Morgan Kaplan has agreed to take on the job of replacing the irreplaceable Sean Lynn-Jones. Morgan has arrived with energy, enthusiasm, expertise, and a deep commitment to carrying on in the tradition that Sean has established. Profound, if inadequate, thanks to Sean. Warm and expectant welcome to Morgan. —Steven E. Miller Summaries","PeriodicalId":48667,"journal":{"name":"International Security","volume":"os-46 1","pages":"4-4"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87241421","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Correspondence: Military-Technological Imitation and Rising Powers 通信:军事技术模仿与新兴大国

IF 5 1区社会学

International Security Pub Date : 2019-10-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_c_00363

Michael C. Horowitz, Shahryar Pasandideh, A. Gilli, Mauro Gilli

{"title":"Correspondence: Military-Technological Imitation and Rising Powers","authors":"Michael C. Horowitz, Shahryar Pasandideh, A. Gilli, Mauro Gilli","doi":"10.1162/isec_c_00363","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_c_00363","url":null,"abstract":"Andrea Gilli and Mauro Gilli should be lauded for making clear how the growing complexity of capital-intensive military platforms such as aghter jets hinders states, such as China, seeking to mimic the United States.1 Gilli and Gilli join a long line of thinkers, myself included, who argue that military technology does not always diffuse easily and that the characteristics of technologies matter in driving how those technologies spread and inouence international politics.2 Although there is much to like about Gilli and Gilli’s article, their analysis has some theoretical limitations with implications for policymaking. First, because Gilli and Gilli evaluate only military technology adoption, they miss the broader ways that human capital, tacit knowledge, and organizational practices shape military power. Gilli and Gilli’s unit of analysis is military-technological superiority (p. 145), suggesting a technologically determinist view of military power. Technology, however, is only a subset of how states generate military power. More important for victory and defeat, on average, is how states develop and employ their capabilities on the battleaeld.3 Gilli and Gilli’s ignoring of the organizational component of military power is relevant because another reason why a country such as China might struggle to adopt some of today’s key military capabilities involves a lack of tacit organizational and Correspondence: Military-Technological Imitation","PeriodicalId":48667,"journal":{"name":"International Security","volume":"53 1","pages":"185-192"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90826853","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Home, Again: Refugee Return and Post-Conflict Violence in Burundi 《再次回家:布隆迪难民返回与冲突后暴力

IF 5 1区社会学

International Security Pub Date : 2019-10-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_a_00362

S. Schwartz

{"title":"Home, Again: Refugee Return and Post-Conflict Violence in Burundi","authors":"S. Schwartz","doi":"10.1162/isec_a_00362","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00362","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Conflict between returning refugees and nonmigrant populations is a pervasive yet frequently overlooked security issue in post-conflict societies. Although scholars have demonstrated how out-migration can regionalize, prolong, and intensify civil war, the security consequences of return migration are undertheorized. An analysis of refugee return to Burundi after the country's 1993–2005 civil war corroborates a new theory of return migration and conflict: return migration creates new identity divisions based on whether and where individuals were displaced during wartime. These cleavages become new sources of conflict in the countries of origin when local institutions, such as land codes, citizenship regimes, or language laws, yield differential outcomes for individuals based on where they lived during the war. Ethnographic evidence gathered in Burundi and Tanzania from 2014 to 2016 shows how the return of refugees created violent rivalries between returnees and nonmigrants. Consequently, when Burundi faced a national-level political crisis in 2015, prior experiences of return shaped both the character and timing of out-migration from Burundi. Illuminating the role of reverse population movements in shaping future conflict extends theories of political violence and demonstrates why breaking the cycle of return and repeat displacement is essential to the prevention of conflict.","PeriodicalId":48667,"journal":{"name":"International Security","volume":"66 1","pages":"110-145"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89491158","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 50

China in a World of Orders: Rethinking Compliance and Challenge in Beijing's International Relations 秩序世界中的中国:重新思考北京国际关系中的服从与挑战

IF 5 1区社会学

International Security Pub Date : 2019-10-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_a_00360

A. Johnston

{"title":"China in a World of Orders: Rethinking Compliance and Challenge in Beijing's International Relations","authors":"A. Johnston","doi":"10.1162/isec_a_00360","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00360","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Many scholars and policymakers in the United States accept the narrative that China is a revisionist state challenging the U.S.-dominated international liberal order. The narrative assumes that there is a singular liberal order and that it is obvious what constitutes a challenge to it. The concepts of order and challenge are, however, poorly operationalized. There are at least four plausible operationalizations of order, three of which are explicitly or implicitly embodied in the dominant narrative. These tend to assume, ahistorically, that U.S. interests and the content of the liberal order are almost identical. The fourth operationalization views order as an emergent property of the interaction of multiple state, substate, nonstate, and international actors. As a result, there are at least eight “issue-specific orders” (e.g., military, trade, information, and political development). Some of these China accepts; some it rejects; and some it is willing to live with. Given these multiple orders and varying levels of challenge, the narrative of a U.S.-dominated liberal international order being challenged by a revisionist China makes little conceptual or empirical sense. The findings point to the need to develop more generalizable ways of observing orders and compliance.","PeriodicalId":48667,"journal":{"name":"International Security","volume":"8 1","pages":"9-60"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85859960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 80

Dangerous Confidence? Chinese Views on Nuclear Escalation 危险的信心吗?中国对核升级的看法

IF 5 1区社会学

International Security Pub Date : 2019-10-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_a_00359

Fiona S. Cunningham, M. T. Fravel

{"title":"Dangerous Confidence? Chinese Views on Nuclear Escalation","authors":"Fiona S. Cunningham, M. T. Fravel","doi":"10.1162/isec_a_00359","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00359","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Chinese views of nuclear escalation are key to assessing the potential for nuclear escalation in a crisis or armed conflict between the United States and China, but they have not been examined systematically. A review of original Chinese-language sources and interviews with members of China's strategic community suggest that China is skeptical that nuclear escalation could be controlled once nuclear weapons are used and, thus, leaders would be restrained from pursuing even limited use. These views are reflected in China's nuclear operational doctrine (which outlines plans for retaliatory strikes only and lacks any clear plans for limited nuclear use) and its force structure (which lacks tactical nuclear weapons). The long-standing decoupling of Chinese nuclear and conventional strategy, organizational biases within China's strategic community, and the availability of space, cyber, and conventional missile weapons as alternative sources of strategic leverage best explain Chinese views toward nuclear escalation. China's confidence that a U.S.-China conflict would not escalate to the use of nuclear weapons may hamper its ability to identify nuclear escalation risks in such a scenario. Meanwhile, U.S. scholars and policymakers emphasize the risk of inadvertent escalation in a conflict with China, but they are more confident than their Chinese counterparts that the use of nuclear weapons could remain limited. When combined, these contrasting views could create pressure for a U.S.-China conflict to escalate rapidly into an unlimited nuclear war.","PeriodicalId":48667,"journal":{"name":"International Security","volume":"30 1","pages":"61-109"},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80407913","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 26

Correspondence: Measuring Power in International Relations 通信:衡量国际关系中的权力

IF 5 1区社会学

International Security Pub Date : 2019-07-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_c_00355

Caleb Pomeroy, Michael Beckley

引用次数: 1